NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/27, Final: 20 – 23
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Colts: 4-3 (57.1%) - AFC South

Texans: 5-2 (71.4%) - AFC South

Line: -5.0

Total: 45.0

Open: -6

Open: 47.5

Team totals: Colts 20.5 · Texans 25.5

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Injury Report INDNo report HOUNo report

Notes

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

Baller System(s)

Back divisional road team with above average passing vs poor pass defefnse

Fade home favorites off a loss

Fade team off loss with 2+ interceptions and opponents covered in previous game

Texans

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/10/24 2024	Colts	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	46.5	-	-
11/03/24 2024	Colts	-	@	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	47.0	-	-
10/27/24 2024	Colts	-	@	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.0	45.0	-	-
10/20/24 2024	Colts	16	vs.	Dolphins	10	284	155	129	0	1	-3.0	44.0	-6	U 26 -18.0
10/13/24 2024	Colts	20	@	Titans	17	269	80	189	1	0	+2.5	41.5	-3	U 37 -4.5
10/06/24 2024	Colts	34	@	Jaguars	37	482	99	383	1	1	+4.0	44.5	+3	O 71 +26.5
09/29/24 2024	Colts	27	vs.	Steelers	24	372	133	239	0	1	+2.5	41.0	-3	O 51 +10.0
09/22/24 2024	Colts	21	vs.	Bears	16	317	150	167	2	0	-2.5	43.0	-5	U 37 -6.0
09/15/24 2024	Colts	10	@	Packers	16	344	140	204	0	3	-3.0	41.5	+6	U 26 -15.5
09/08/24 2024	Colts	27	vs.	Texans	29	316	104	212	0	0	+3.0	48.5	+2	O 56 +7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/06/24 2023	Colts	19	vs.	Texans	23	368	227	141	0	1	+1.5	46.5	+4	U 42 -4.5
12/31/23 2023	Colts	23	vs.	Raiders	20	358	134	224	0	1	-3.5	42.0	-3	O 43 +1.0
12/24/23 2023	Colts	10	@	Falcons	29	293	92	201	0	1	+2.5	44.5	+19	U 39 -5.5

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		21.3	-	-	23.3	365	106	259	0.7	1.3	+1.2	42.5	+2.0 -0.8	O 44.7 +2.2

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		22.1	-	-	21.3	341	123	218	0.6	0.9	+0.5	43.4	-0.9 +1.4	P 43.4 0.0

Texans Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/10/24 2024	Texans	-	vs.	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	49.5	-	-
10/31/24 2024	Texans	-	@	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	43.5	-	-
10/27/24 2024	Texans	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.0	45.0	-	-
10/20/24 2024	Texans	22	@	Packers	24	228	142	86	2	0	+3.0	48.0	+2	U 46 -2.0
10/13/24 2024	Texans	41	@	Patriots	21	384	192	192	2	1	-6.5	39.5	-20	O 62 +22.5
10/06/24 2024	Texans	23	vs.	Bills	20	425	94	331	0	1	-2.0	48.0	-3	U 43 -5.0
09/29/24 2024	Texans	24	vs.	Jaguars	20	446	101	345	0	1	-5.5	44.5	-4	U 44 -0.5
09/22/24 2024	Texans	7	@	Vikings	34	345	38	307	0	0	-1.0	46.5	+27	U 41 -5.5
09/15/24 2024	Texans	19	vs.	Bears	13	335	75	260	2	1	-6.5	45.5	-6	U 32 -13.5
09/08/24 2024	Texans	29	@	Colts	27	447	213	234	1	0	-3.0	48.5	-2	O 56 +7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/20/24 2023	Texans	10	@	Ravens	34	213	38	175	0	1	+9.5	44.0	+24	P 44 0.0
01/13/24 2023	Texans	45	vs.	Browns	14	356	76	280	2	0	+2.5	44.5	-31	O 59 +14.5
01/06/24 2023	Texans	23	@	Colts	19	324	60	264	0	0	-1.5	46.5	-4	U 42 -4.5

Home Games Avg (3 games this season)		22.0	-	-	17.7	402	90	312	0.7	1.0	-4.7	46.0	-4.3 -0.3	U 39.7 -6.3

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		23.6	-	-	22.7	373	122	251	1.0	0.6	-3.1	45.8	-0.9 -2.2	O 46.3 +0.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Texans are 71.4% (5-2) to the under

The Texans are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Texans are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Colts are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread

The Colts are 100% (4-0) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Colts are 100% (5-0) (L30 days) against the spread

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Texans (Home)

The Texans are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread

The Texans are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread at home

The Texans are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread as a fav

The Texans are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Texans are 71.4% (5-2) to the under

The Texans are 100% (3-0) to the under at home

The Texans are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a fav

The Texans are 100% (3-0) to the under as a home fav

The Texans are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Texans are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Texans are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Texans are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Texans are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Texans are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Texans are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Texans are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Colts (Away)

The Colts are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread away

The Colts are 100% (4-0) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 100% (2-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Colts are 57.1% (4-3) to the under

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) to the under away

The Colts are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Colts are 50% (1-1) to the over as an away dog

The Colts are 100% (5-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Colts are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Colts are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Colts are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Colts are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Colts are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/08/24 2024	Texans	29	@	Colts	27	316	104	212	0	0	-3.0	48.5	-2	O 56 +7.5
01/06/24 2023	Texans	23	@	Colts	19	368	227	141	0	1	-1.5	46.5	-4	U 42 -4.5
09/17/23 2023	Texans	20	vs.	Colts	31	436	52	384	0	3	0.0	40.5	+11	O 51 +10.5
01/08/23 2022	Texans	32	@	Colts	31	405	196	209	2	4	+3.0	37.5	-1	O 63 +25.5
09/11/22 2022	Texans	20	vs.	Colts	20 OT	317	77	240	1	1	+7.0	46.5	0	U 40 -6.5
12/05/21 2021	Texans	0	vs.	Colts	31	178	84	94	0	1	+10.0	45.5	+31	U 31 -14.5
10/17/21 2021	Texans	3	@	Colts	31	397	174	223	2	0	+11.0	44.5	+28	U 34 -10.5

Texans as Home (3 games)		13.3	-	-	27.3	310	71	239	0.3	1.7	+5.7	44.2	+14.0 -8.3	U 40.7 -3.5

All Games Avg (7 games)		18.1	-	-	27.1	345	131	215	0.7	1.4	+3.8	44.2	+9.0 -5.2	O 45.3 +1.1

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/27, Final: 20 – 23 Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Indianapolis Colts", home_team: "Houston Texans", game_date: "2024-10-27" };

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Injury Report INDNo report HOUNo report

Notes

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Texans

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Texans Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Texans (Home)

Colts (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/27, Final: 20 – 23
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans