NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/20, Final: 31 – 29
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

Lions: 4-1 (80.0%) - NFC North

Vikings: 5-0 (100.0%) - NFC North

Line: -1.0

Total: 50.0

Open: -1.5

Open: 48.5

Team totals: Lions 24.5 · Vikings 26.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report DETNo report MINNo report

Notes

Lions

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Back divisional dog who won previous 2 head-to-head matchups

Back divisional road team with above average passing vs poor pass defefnse

Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total

Vikings

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

Baller System(s)

Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers

Unders system: home dogs with next game on Thursday

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Lions

57.19% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Lions Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/03/24 2024	Lions	-	@	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	48.0	-	-
10/27/24 2024	Lions	-	vs.	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-12.5	45.0	-	-
10/20/24 2024	Lions	-	@	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.0	50.0	-	-
10/13/24 2024	Lions	47	@	Cowboys	9	518	184	334	3	1	-3.5	53.5	-38	O 56 +2.5
09/30/24 2024	Lions	42	vs.	Seahawks	29	415	116	299	1	0	-4.0	47.0	-13	O 71 +24.0
09/22/24 2024	Lions	20	@	Cardinals	13	386	187	199	1	0	-3.0	51.5	-7	U 33 -18.5
09/15/24 2024	Lions	16	vs.	Buccaneers	20	463	139	324	1	0	-7.5	51.5	+4	U 36 -15.5
09/08/24 2024	Lions	26	vs.	Rams	20 OT	380	163	217	1	0	-5.5	53.5	-6	U 46 -7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/28/24 2023	Lions	31	@	49ers	34	455	182	273	1	1	+7.0	53.5	+3	O 65 +11.5
01/21/24 2023	Lions	31	vs.	Buccaneers	23	401	114	287	2	0	-6.0	49.0	-8	O 54 +5.0
01/14/24 2023	Lions	24	vs.	Rams	23	356	79	277	0	1	-3.0	52.5	-1	U 47 -5.5
01/07/24 2023	Lions	30	vs.	Vikings	20	390	70	320	2	0	-4.0	47.5	-10	O 50 +2.5
12/30/23 2023	Lions	19	@	Cowboys	20	427	125	302	1	0	+4.5	53.0	+1	U 39 -14.0

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		33.5	-	-	11.0	452	186	267	2.0	0.5	-3.3	52.5	-22.5 +19.3	U 44.5 -8.0

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		30.2	-	-	18.2	432	158	275	1.4	0.2	-4.7	51.4	-12.0 +7.3	U 48.4 -3.0

Vikings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/03/24 2024	Vikings	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	47.0	-	-
10/24/24 2024	Vikings	-	@	Rams	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	47.5	-	-
10/20/24 2024	Vikings	-	vs.	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.0	50.0	-	-
10/06/24 2024	Vikings	23	vs.	Jets	17	285	82	203	3	2	-2.5	42.0	-6	U 40 -2.0
09/29/24 2024	Vikings	31	@	Packers	29	395	120	275	3	2	+2.5	44.0	-2	O 60 +16.0
09/22/24 2024	Vikings	34	vs.	Texans	7	299	118	181	2	1	+1.0	46.5	-27	U 41 -5.5
09/15/24 2024	Vikings	23	vs.	49ers	17	414	146	268	1	3	+4.5	46.5	-6	U 40 -6.5
09/08/24 2024	Vikings	28	@	Giants	6	319	111	208	2	1	-1.0	42.0	-22	U 34 -8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Vikings	20	@	Lions	30	485	89	396	0	0	+4.0	47.5	+10	O 50 +2.5
12/31/23 2023	Vikings	10	vs.	Packers	33	247	67	180	0	1	+1.0	42.5	+23	O 43 +0.5
12/24/23 2023	Vikings	24	vs.	Lions	30	428	17	411	0	2	+2.5	48.0	+6	O 54 +6.0
12/16/23 2023	Vikings	24	@	Bengals	27 OT	446	143	303	1	0	+3.0	41.5	+3	O 51 +9.5
12/10/23 2023	Vikings	3	@	Raiders	0	278	132	146	1	0	-3.0	40.5	-3	U 3 -37.5

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		28.5	-	-	12.0	357	132	225	1.5	2.0	+2.8	46.5	-16.5 +19.3	U 40.5 -6.0

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		27.8	-	-	15.2	342	115	227	2.2	1.8	+0.9	44.2	-12.6 +13.5	U 43.0 -1.2

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Vikings are 100% (5-0) against the spread

The Vikings are 80% (4-1) to the under

The Vikings are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Vikings are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Lions are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

View All Records

Vikings (Home)

The Vikings are 100% (5-0) against the spread

The Vikings are 100% (2-0) against the spread at home

The Vikings are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a fav

The Vikings are 80% (4-1) to the under

The Vikings are 100% (2-0) to the under at home

The Vikings are 100% (2-0) to the under as a fav

The Vikings are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Vikings are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Vikings are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Vikings are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Vikings are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Vikings are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

Lions (Away)

The Lions are 80% (4-1) against the spread

The Lions are 100% (2-0) against the spread away

The Lions are 60% (3-2) to the under

The Lions are 50% (1-1) to the over away

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Lions are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Lions are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Lions are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/07/24 2023	Vikings	20	@	Lions	30	390	70	320	2	0	+4.0	47.5	+10	O 50 +2.5
12/24/23 2023	Vikings	24	vs.	Lions	30	428	17	411	0	2	+2.5	48.0	+6	O 54 +6.0
12/11/22 2022	Vikings	23	@	Lions	34	464	134	330	0	0	+2.5	51.5	+11	O 57 +5.5
09/25/22 2022	Vikings	28	vs.	Lions	24	383	123	260	1	2	-6.0	52.5	-4	U 52 -0.5
12/05/21 2021	Vikings	27	@	Lions	29	396	100	296	0	2	-7.0	47.5	+2	O 56 +8.5
10/10/21 2021	Vikings	19	vs.	Lions	17	395	120	275	1	1	-10.0	49.5	-2	U 36 -13.5

Vikings as Home (3 games)		23.7	-	-	23.7	402	87	315	0.7	1.7	-4.5	50.0	0.0 -4.5	U 47.3 -2.7

All Games Avg (6 games)		23.5	-	-	27.3	409	94	315	0.7	1.2	-2.3	49.4	+3.8 -6.2	O 50.8 +1.4

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Lions (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Lions
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	Lions
OVERALL	Lions \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/20, Final: 31 – 29 Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Detroit Lions", home_team: "Minnesota Vikings", game_date: "2024-10-20" };

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Injury Report DETNo report MINNo report

Notes

Lions

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Vikings

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Lions Schedule Follow global filters

Vikings Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Vikings (Home)

Lions (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/20, Final: 31 – 29
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings