NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/13, Final: 47 – 9
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Lions: 3-1 (75.0%) - NFC North

Cowboys: 3-2 (60.0%) - NFC East

Line: +3.5

Total: 53.5

Open: +3

Open: 52

Team totals: Lions 28.5 · Cowboys 24.5

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Games
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Injury Report DETNo report DALNo report

Notes

Lions

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

Cowboys

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Lookahead to bye week

Rest Disadvantage

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Lions Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/27/24 2024	Lions	-	vs.	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-12.5	45.0	-	-
10/20/24 2024	Lions	-	@	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.0	50.0	-	-
10/13/24 2024	Lions	-	@	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	53.5	-	-
09/30/24 2024	Lions	42	vs.	Seahawks	29	415	116	299	1	0	-4.0	47.0	-13	O 71 +24.0
09/22/24 2024	Lions	20	@	Cardinals	13	386	187	199	1	0	-3.0	51.5	-7	U 33 -18.5
09/15/24 2024	Lions	16	vs.	Buccaneers	20	463	139	324	1	0	-7.5	51.5	+4	U 36 -15.5
09/08/24 2024	Lions	26	vs.	Rams	20 OT	380	163	217	1	0	-5.5	53.5	-6	U 46 -7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/28/24 2023	Lions	31	@	49ers	34	455	182	273	1	1	+7.0	53.5	+3	O 65 +11.5
01/21/24 2023	Lions	31	vs.	Buccaneers	23	401	114	287	2	0	-6.0	49.0	-8	O 54 +5.0
01/14/24 2023	Lions	24	vs.	Rams	23	356	79	277	0	1	-3.0	52.5	-1	U 47 -5.5
01/07/24 2023	Lions	30	vs.	Vikings	20	390	70	320	2	0	-4.0	47.5	-10	O 50 +2.5
12/30/23 2023	Lions	19	@	Cowboys	20	427	125	302	1	0	+4.5	53.0	+1	U 39 -14.0
12/24/23 2023	Lions	30	@	Vikings	24	400	143	257	4	2	-2.5	48.0	-6	O 54 +6.0

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		20.0	-	-	13.0	386	187	199	1.0	0.0	-3.0	51.5	-7.0 +4.0	U 33.0 -18.5

All Games Avg (4 games this season)		26.0	-	-	20.5	411	151	260	1.0	0.0	-5.0	50.9	-5.5 +0.5	U 46.5 -4.4

Cowboys Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/03/24 2024	Cowboys	-	@	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	52.0	-	-
10/27/24 2024	Cowboys	-	@	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.5	47.5	-	-
10/13/24 2024	Cowboys	-	vs.	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	53.5	-	-
10/06/24 2024	Cowboys	20	@	Steelers	17	461	109	352	0	2	+2.5	44.0	-3	U 37 -7.0
09/26/24 2024	Cowboys	20	@	Giants	15	301	80	221	1	1	-6.0	45.0	-5	U 35 -10.0
09/22/24 2024	Cowboys	25	vs.	Ravens	28	430	51	379	0	2	+1.5	47.5	+3	O 53 +5.5
09/15/24 2024	Cowboys	19	vs.	Saints	44	367	68	299	1	1	-6.5	47.0	+25	O 63 +16.0
09/08/24 2024	Cowboys	33	@	Browns	17	281	102	179	2	1	+2.0	42.0	-16	O 50 +8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/14/24 2023	Cowboys	32	vs.	Packers	48	526	123	403	0	0	-7.0	52.0	+16	O 80 +28.0
01/07/24 2023	Cowboys	38	@	Commanders	10	440	131	309	2	0	-13.0	48.0	-28	P 48 0.0
12/30/23 2023	Cowboys	20	vs.	Lions	19	406	61	345	2	2	-4.5	53.0	-1	U 39 -14.0
12/24/23 2023	Cowboys	20	@	Dolphins	22	350	97	253	0	1	+1.5	49.0	+2	U 42 -7.0
12/17/23 2023	Cowboys	10	@	Bills	31	223	89	134	0	0	+2.5	49.0	+21	U 41 -8.0

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		22.0	-	-	36.0	399	60	339	0.5	1.5	-2.5	47.3	+14.0 -16.5	O 58.0 +10.8

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		23.4	-	-	24.2	368	82	286	0.8	1.4	-1.3	45.1	+0.8 -2.1	O 47.6 +2.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Lions are 75% (3-1) against the spread

The Lions are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a fav

The Lions are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Lions are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

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Cowboys (Home)

The Cowboys are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Cowboys are 0% (0-2) against the spread at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as a dog

The Cowboys are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Cowboys are 60% (3-2) to the over

The Cowboys are 100% (2-0) to the over at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as a dog

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) to the over as a home dog

The Cowboys are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Cowboys are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Cowboys are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Cowboys are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Cowboys are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Lions (Away)

The Lions are 75% (3-1) against the spread

The Lions are 100% (1-0) against the spread away

The Lions are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a fav

The Lions are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away fav

The Lions are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Lions are 100% (1-0) to the under away

The Lions are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Lions are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away fav

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Lions are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Lions are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Lions are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Lions are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Lions are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/30/23 2023	Cowboys	20	vs.	Lions	19	406	61	345	2	2	-4.5	53.0	-1	U 39 -14.0
10/23/22 2022	Cowboys	24	vs.	Lions	6	346	139	207	2	2	-6.5	49.0	-18	U 30 -19.0

Cowboys as Home (2 games)		22.0	-	-	12.5	376	100	276	2.0	2.0	-5.5	51.0	-9.5 +4.0	U 34.5 -16.5

All Games Avg (2 games)		22.0	-	-	12.5	376	100	276	2.0	2.0	-5.5	51.0	-9.5 +4.0	U 34.5 -16.5

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/13, Final: 47 – 9 Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Detroit Lions", home_team: "Dallas Cowboys", game_date: "2024-10-13" };

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Injury Report DETNo report DALNo report

Notes

Lions

Situational Factor(s)

Cowboys

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Lions Schedule Follow global filters

Cowboys Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Cowboys (Home)

Lions (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/13, Final: 47 – 9
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys