NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/6, Final: 10 – 36
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Panthers: 1-3 (25.0%) - NFC South

Bears: 2-2 (50.0%) - NFC North

Line: -4.0

Total: 40.0

Open: -3.5

Open: 41.5

Team totals: Panthers 17.5 · Bears 22.5

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Injury Report CARNo report CHINo report

Notes

Panthers

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller System(s)

Back road team off loss more than a TD

Bears

Nothing active

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Panthers

54.06% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Panthers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/20/24 2024	Panthers	-	@	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+10.0	51.0	-	-
10/13/24 2024	Panthers	-	vs.	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	46.0	-	-
10/06/24 2024	Panthers	-	@	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	40.0	-	-
09/29/24 2024	Panthers	24	vs.	Bengals	34	375	155	220	1	0	+5.5	46.5	+10	O 58 +11.5
09/22/24 2024	Panthers	36	@	Raiders	22	450	131	319	1	0	+5.5	40.5	-14	O 58 +17.5
09/15/24 2024	Panthers	3	vs.	Chargers	26	174	90	84	1	0	+5.0	39.0	+23	U 29 -10.0
09/08/24 2024	Panthers	10	@	Saints	47	219	58	161	0	1	+3.5	41.5	+37	O 57 +15.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Panthers	0	vs.	Buccaneers	9	225	131	94	0	2	+4.0	36.0	+9	U 9 -27.0
12/31/23 2023	Panthers	0	@	Jaguars	26	169	57	112	0	0	+3.5	38.5	+26	U 26 -12.5
12/24/23 2023	Panthers	30	vs.	Packers	33	408	96	312	0	2	+3.5	40.0	+3	O 63 +23.0
12/17/23 2023	Panthers	9	vs.	Falcons	7	296	129	167	1	2	+2.5	32.5	-2	U 16 -16.5
12/10/23 2023	Panthers	6	@	Saints	28	341	204	137	1	3	+5.5	39.5	+22	U 34 -5.5
12/03/23 2023	Panthers	18	@	Buccaneers	21	311	133	178	1	2	+3.5	37.0	+3	O 39 +2.0

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		23.0	-	-	34.5	335	95	240	0.5	0.5	+4.5	41.0	+11.5 -7.0	O 57.5 +16.5

All Games Avg (4 games this season)		18.3	-	-	32.3	305	109	196	0.8	0.3	+4.9	41.9	+14.0 -9.1	O 50.5 +8.6

Bears Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/27/24 2024	Bears	-	@	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	46.5	-	-
10/13/24 2024	Bears	-	vs.	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	44.5	-	-
10/06/24 2024	Bears	-	vs.	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.0	40.0	-	-
09/29/24 2024	Bears	24	vs.	Rams	18	288	131	157	1	1	-3.5	40.5	-6	O 42 +1.5
09/22/24 2024	Bears	16	@	Colts	21	426	63	363	2	1	+2.5	43.0	+5	U 37 -6.0
09/15/24 2024	Bears	13	@	Texans	19	245	71	174	0	0	+6.5	45.5	+6	U 32 -13.5
09/08/24 2024	Bears	24	vs.	Titans	17	177	84	93	2	3	-4.5	43.0	-7	U 41 -2.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Bears	9	@	Packers	17	223	75	148	0	0	+2.5	46.0	+8	U 26 -20.0
12/31/23 2023	Bears	37	vs.	Falcons	17	460	192	268	4	1	-2.5	39.0	-20	O 54 +15.0
12/24/23 2023	Bears	27	vs.	Cardinals	16	420	250	170	0	0	-4.5	42.0	-11	O 43 +1.0
12/17/23 2023	Bears	17	@	Browns	20	254	88	166	3	4	+2.5	38.0	+3	U 37 -1.0
12/10/23 2023	Bears	28	vs.	Lions	13	365	142	223	2	1	+3.0	44.5	-15	U 41 -3.5
11/27/23 2023	Bears	12	@	Vikings	10	335	118	217	4	3	+3.0	43.5	-2	U 22 -21.5

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		24.0	-	-	17.5	233	108	125	1.5	2.0	-4.0	41.8	-6.5 +2.5	U 41.5 -0.3

All Games Avg (4 games this season)		19.3	-	-	18.8	284	87	197	1.3	1.3	+0.3	43.0	-0.5 +0.8	U 38.0 -5.0

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Bears are 75% (3-1) against the spread

The Bears are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Bears are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bears are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) against the spread

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) to the over

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

View All Records

Bears (Home)

The Bears are 75% (3-1) against the spread

The Bears are 100% (2-0) against the spread at home

The Bears are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a fav

The Bears are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Bears are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Bears are 50% (1-1) to the over at home

The Bears are 50% (1-1) to the over as a fav

The Bears are 50% (1-1) to the over as a home fav

The Bears are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bears are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Bears are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Bears are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Bears are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Bears are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Bears are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Bears are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Panthers (Away)

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) against the spread

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) to the over

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) to the over away

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) to the over as an away dog

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Panthers are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Panthers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Panthers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Panthers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/09/23 2023	Bears	16	vs.	Panthers	13	295	133	162	0	0	-3.5	38.0	-3	U 29 -9.0

Bears as Home (1 games)		16.0	-	-	13.0	295	133	162	0.0	0.0	-3.5	38.0	-3.0 -0.5	U 29.0 -9.0

All Games Avg (1 games)		16.0	-	-	13.0	295	133	162	0.0	0.0	-3.5	38.0	-3.0 -0.5	U 29.0 -9.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Bears (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Panthers
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Panthers (2x)
Cover Summary	Panthers
OVERALL	Panthers \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/6, Final: 10 – 36 Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Carolina Panthers", home_team: "Chicago Bears", game_date: "2024-10-06" };

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Injury Report CARNo report CHINo report

Notes

Panthers

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Bears

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Panthers Schedule Follow global filters

Bears Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Bears (Home)

Panthers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/6, Final: 10 – 36
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears