NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Mon, 9/30, Final: 31 – 12
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

Titans: 0-3 (0.0%) - AFC South

Dolphins: 1-2 (33.3%) - AFC East

Line: -2.5

Total: 37.5

Open: -1.5

Open: 39.5

Team totals: Titans 17.5 · Dolphins 19.5

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Injury Report TENNo report MIANo report

Notes

Titans

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead to bye week

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Baller System(s)

Back early season short, road underdogs who won last matchup

Back road team off loss more than a TD

Dolphins

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Titans Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/20/24 2024	Titans	-	@	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+9.5	41.0	-	-
10/13/24 2024	Titans	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	41.5	-	-
09/30/24 2024	Titans	-	@	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	37.5	-	-
09/22/24 2024	Titans	14	vs.	Packers	30	293	33	260	0	1	-3.0	37.0	+16	O 44 +7.0
09/15/24 2024	Titans	17	vs.	Jets	24	322	130	192	0	1	+3.5	41.0	+7	P 41 0.0
09/08/24 2024	Titans	17	@	Bears	24	267	140	127	0	1	+4.5	43.0	+7	U 41 -2.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Titans	28	vs.	Jaguars	20	343	175	168	2	1	+3.5	41.5	-8	O 48 +6.5
12/31/23 2023	Titans	3	@	Texans	26	237	53	184	0	1	+5.5	44.0	+23	U 29 -15.0
12/24/23 2023	Titans	17	vs.	Seahawks	20	326	162	164	0	1	+3.0	42.5	+3	U 37 -5.5
12/17/23 2023	Titans	16	vs.	Texans	19 OT	265	66	199	1	1	-3.0	38.0	+3	U 35 -3.0
12/11/23 2023	Titans	28	@	Dolphins	27	410	83	327	0	3	+13.5	45.0	-1	O 55 +10.0
12/03/23 2023	Titans	28	vs.	Colts	31 OT	401	177	224	0	4	+1.5	42.5	+3	O 59 +16.5
11/26/23 2023	Titans	17	vs.	Panthers	10	265	80	185	0	0	-3.5	36.5	-7	U 27 -9.5

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		17.0	-	-	24.0	267	140	127	0.0	1.0	+4.5	43.0	+7.0 -2.5	U 41.0 -2.0

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		16.0	-	-	26.0	294	101	193	0.0	1.0	+1.7	40.3	+10.0 -8.3	O 42.0 +1.7

Dolphins Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/20/24 2024	Dolphins	-	@	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	44.0	-	-
10/06/24 2024	Dolphins	-	@	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	36.5	-	-
09/30/24 2024	Dolphins	-	vs.	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	37.5	-	-
09/22/24 2024	Dolphins	3	@	Seahawks	24	251	65	186	2	3	+4.5	42.0	+21	U 27 -15.0
09/12/24 2024	Dolphins	10	vs.	Bills	31	364	139	225	0	0	-2.5	49.0	+21	U 41 -8.0
09/08/24 2024	Dolphins	20	vs.	Jaguars	17	419	81	338	0	0	-3.5	50.0	-3	U 37 -13.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/13/24 2023	Dolphins	7	@	Chiefs	26	275	76	199	0	0	+4.5	43.5	+19	U 33 -10.5
01/07/24 2023	Dolphins	14	vs.	Bills	21	281	108	173	2	0	+2.5	48.0	+7	U 35 -13.0
12/31/23 2023	Dolphins	19	@	Ravens	56	391	154	237	0	1	+3.0	46.0	+37	O 75 +29.0
12/24/23 2023	Dolphins	22	vs.	Cowboys	20	384	91	293	0	1	-1.5	49.0	-2	U 42 -7.0
12/17/23 2023	Dolphins	30	vs.	Jets	0	305	77	228	2	0	-7.0	35.5	-30	U 30 -5.5
12/11/23 2023	Dolphins	27	vs.	Titans	28	398	158	240	1	2	-13.5	45.0	+1	O 55 +10.0
12/03/23 2023	Dolphins	45	@	Commanders	15	406	123	283	1	0	-8.5	50.0	-30	O 60 +10.0

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		15.0	-	-	24.0	392	110	282	0.0	0.0	-3.0	49.5	+9.0 -12.0	U 39.0 -10.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		11.0	-	-	24.0	345	95	250	0.7	1.0	-0.5	47.0	+13.0 -13.5	U 35.0 -12.0

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Dolphins (Home)

The Dolphins are 0% (0-3) against the spread

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a fav

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Dolphins are 100% (3-0) to the under

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) to the under at home

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) to the under as a fav

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) to the under as a home fav

The Dolphins are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dolphins are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Titans (Away)

The Titans are 0% (0-3) against the spread

The Titans are 0% (0-1) against the spread away

The Titans are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a dog

The Titans are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Titans are 50% (1-1-1) to the over

The Titans are 100% (1-0) to the under away

The Titans are 100% (1-0-1) to the under as a dog

The Titans are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away dog

The Titans are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Titans are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Titans are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Titans are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Titans are 50% (1-1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Titans are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Titans are 100% (1-0-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Titans are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/11/23 2023	Dolphins	27	vs.	Titans	28	398	158	240	1	2	-13.5	45.0	+1	O 55 +10.0
01/02/22 2021	Dolphins	3	@	Titans	34	318	198	120	1	1	+3.0	41.0	+31	U 37 -4.0

Dolphins as Home (1 games)		27.0	-	-	28.0	398	158	240	1.0	2.0	-13.5	45.0	+1.0 -14.5	O 55.0 +10.0

All Games Avg (2 games)		15.0	-	-	31.0	358	178	180	1.0	1.5	-5.3	43.0	+16.0 -21.3	O 46.0 +3.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Dolphins (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Titans (2x)
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Mon, 9/30, Final: 31 – 12 Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Tennessee Titans", home_team: "Miami Dolphins", game_date: "2024-09-30" };

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Injury Report TENNo report MIANo report

Notes

Titans

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Dolphins

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Titans Schedule Follow global filters

Dolphins Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Dolphins (Home)

Titans (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Mon, 9/30, Final: 31 – 12
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins