NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/22, Final: 30 – 14
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Packers: 1-1 (50.0%) - NFC North

Titans: 0-2 (0.0%) - AFC South

Line: -3.0

Total: 37.0

Open: +2

Open: 42.5

Team totals: Packers 17.5 · Titans 19.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report GBNo report TENNo report

Notes

Packers

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller System(s)

Fade home favorites off a loss

Titans

Baller System(s)

Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Packers

57.19% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Packers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/06/24 2024	Packers	-	@	Rams	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	49.5	-	-
09/29/24 2024	Packers	-	vs.	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	44.0	-	-
09/22/24 2024	Packers	-	@	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	37.0	-	-
09/15/24 2024	Packers	16	vs.	Colts	10	383	261	122	3	2	+3.0	41.5	-6	U 26 -15.5
09/06/24 2024	Packers	29	vs.	Eagles	34	423	163	260	2	1	+2.0	49.5	+5	O 63 +13.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/20/24 2023	Packers	21	@	49ers	24	330	136	194	0	2	+10.5	50.5	+3	U 45 -5.5
01/14/24 2023	Packers	48	@	Cowboys	32	415	143	272	2	0	+7.0	52.0	-16	O 80 +28.0
01/07/24 2023	Packers	17	vs.	Bears	9	440	124	316	0	1	-2.5	46.0	-8	U 26 -20.0
12/31/23 2023	Packers	33	@	Vikings	10	470	177	293	1	1	-1.0	42.5	-23	O 43 +0.5
12/24/23 2023	Packers	33	@	Panthers	30	381	162	219	0	1	-3.5	40.0	-3	O 63 +23.0
12/17/23 2023	Packers	20	vs.	Buccaneers	34	344	60	284	0	2	-4.0	41.5	+14	O 54 +12.5
12/11/23 2023	Packers	22	@	Giants	24	341	123	218	0	3	-6.0	37.5	+2	O 46 +8.5
12/03/23 2023	Packers	27	vs.	Chiefs	19	396	129	267	1	0	+6.0	44.0	-8	O 46 +2.0

All Games Avg (2 games this season)		22.5	-	-	22.0	403	212	191	2.5	1.5	+2.5	45.5	-0.5 +3.0	U 44.5 -1.0

Titans Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/13/24 2024	Titans	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	41.5	-	-
09/30/24 2024	Titans	-	@	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	37.5	-	-
09/22/24 2024	Titans	-	vs.	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	37.0	-	-
09/15/24 2024	Titans	17	vs.	Jets	24	322	130	192	0	1	+3.5	41.0	+7	P 41 0.0
09/08/24 2024	Titans	17	@	Bears	24	267	140	127	0	1	+4.5	43.0	+7	U 41 -2.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Titans	28	vs.	Jaguars	20	343	175	168	2	1	+3.5	41.5	-8	O 48 +6.5
12/31/23 2023	Titans	3	@	Texans	26	237	53	184	0	1	+5.5	44.0	+23	U 29 -15.0
12/24/23 2023	Titans	17	vs.	Seahawks	20	326	162	164	0	1	+3.0	42.5	+3	U 37 -5.5
12/17/23 2023	Titans	16	vs.	Texans	19 OT	265	66	199	1	1	-3.0	38.0	+3	U 35 -3.0
12/11/23 2023	Titans	28	@	Dolphins	27	410	83	327	0	3	+13.5	45.0	-1	O 55 +10.0
12/03/23 2023	Titans	28	vs.	Colts	31 OT	401	177	224	0	4	+1.5	42.5	+3	O 59 +16.5
11/26/23 2023	Titans	17	vs.	Panthers	10	265	80	185	0	0	-3.5	36.5	-7	U 27 -9.5
11/19/23 2023	Titans	14	@	Jaguars	34	250	92	158	0	2	+6.5	40.0	+20	O 48 +8.0

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		17.0	-	-	24.0	322	130	192	0.0	1.0	+3.5	41.0	+7.0 -3.5	P 41.0 0.0

All Games Avg (2 games this season)		17.0	-	-	24.0	295	135	160	0.0	1.0	+4.0	42.0	+7.0 -3.0	U 41.0 -1.0

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Titans (Home)

The Titans are 0% (0-2) against the spread

The Titans are 0% (0-1) against the spread at home

The Titans are 100% (1-0-1) to the under

The Titans are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Titans are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Titans are 100% (1-0-1) (L30 days) to the under

Packers (Away)

The Packers are 50% (1-1) against the spread

The Packers are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a dog

The Packers are 50% (1-1) to the over

The Packers are 50% (1-1) to the over as a dog

The Packers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Packers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Packers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Packers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/17/22 2022	Titans	27	@	Packers	17	283	56	227	1	1	+3.0	40.5	-10	O 44 +3.5

All Games Avg (1 games)		27.0	-	-	17.0	283	56	227	1.0	1.0	+3.0	40.5	-10.0 +13.0	O 44.0 +3.5

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Packers (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Packers
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	Packers
OVERALL	Packers \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/22, Final: 30 – 14 Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Green Bay Packers", home_team: "Tennessee Titans", game_date: "2024-09-22" };

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Injury Report GBNo report TENNo report

Notes

Packers

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Titans

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Packers Schedule Follow global filters

Titans Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Titans (Home)

Packers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 9/22, Final: 30 – 14
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans