NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/8, Final: 16 – 10
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Patriots: 0-0 (0.0%) - AFC East

Bengals: 0-0 (0.0%) - AFC North

Line: -8.0

Total: 40.5

Open: -8

Open: 41

Team totals: Patriots 16.5 · Bengals 24.5

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Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

The model doesn't have enough games played yet this season to generate reliable predictions — it typically won't start producing projections until Week 3.

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/19/24 2024	Patriots	-	@	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	39.5	-	-
09/15/24 2024	Patriots	-	vs.	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	39.0	-	-
09/08/24 2024	Patriots	-	@	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	+8.0	40.5	-	-
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Patriots	3	vs.	Jets	17	176	88	88	0	1	-2.0	28.5	+14	U 20 -8.5
12/31/23 2023	Patriots	21	@	Bills	27	312	103	209	1	1	+15.5	40.0	+6	O 48 +8.0
12/24/23 2023	Patriots	26	@	Broncos	23	315	59	256	0	2	+7.0	37.5	-3	O 49 +11.5
12/17/23 2023	Patriots	17	vs.	Chiefs	27	232	52	180	2	2	+10.0	39.5	+10	O 44 +4.5
12/07/23 2023	Patriots	21	@	Steelers	18	321	81	240	1	0	+5.5	30.5	-3	O 39 +8.5
12/03/23 2023	Patriots	0	vs.	Chargers	6	289	148	141	0	2	+4.5	38.5	+6	U 6 -32.5
11/26/23 2023	Patriots	7	@	Giants	10	290	147	143	0	3	-4.5	36.0	+3	U 17 -19.0
11/12/23 2023	Patriots	6	vs.	Colts	10	362	167	195	1	1	+1.5	41.5	+4	U 16 -25.5
11/05/23 2023	Patriots	17	vs.	Commanders	20	327	107	220	1	0	-3.0	40.5	+3	U 37 -3.5
10/29/23 2023	Patriots	17	@	Dolphins	31	238	77	161	1	0	+7.5	47.0	+14	O 48 +1.0

Bengals Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/23/24 2024	Bengals	-	vs.	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	45.5	-	-
09/15/24 2024	Bengals	-	@	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	48.0	-	-
09/08/24 2024	Bengals	-	vs.	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.0	40.5	-	-
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Bengals	31	vs.	Browns	14	359	183	176	2	1	-7.5	37.0	-17	O 45 +8.0
12/31/23 2023	Bengals	17	@	Chiefs	25	301	104	197	0	0	+7.0	45.5	+8	U 42 -3.5
12/23/23 2023	Bengals	11	@	Steelers	34	394	59	335	0	1	-3.0	38.0	+23	O 45 +7.0
12/16/23 2023	Bengals	27	vs.	Vikings	24 OT	404	80	324	2	1	-3.0	41.5	-3	O 51 +9.5
12/10/23 2023	Bengals	34	vs.	Colts	14	385	111	274	1	0	-3.0	44.5	-20	O 48 +3.5
12/04/23 2023	Bengals	34	@	Jaguars	31 OT	503	156	347	0	0	+10.0	41.0	-3	O 65 +24.0
11/26/23 2023	Bengals	10	vs.	Steelers	16	252	25	227	0	1	+2.0	35.5	+6	U 26 -9.5
11/16/23 2023	Bengals	20	@	Ravens	34	305	136	169	0	0	+4.0	46.0	+14	O 54 +8.0
11/12/23 2023	Bengals	27	vs.	Texans	30	413	66	347	1	1	-5.5	46.0	+3	O 57 +11.0
11/05/23 2023	Bengals	24	vs.	Bills	18	402	54	348	1	0	-1.5	51.0	-6	U 42 -9.0

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Records

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Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

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Bengals (Home)

The Bengals are 46.7% (7-8-2) against the spread

The Bengals are 57.1% (4-3-2) against the spread at home

The Bengals are 50% (5-5-2) against the spread as a fav

The Bengals are 66.7% (4-2-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Bengals are 58.8% (10-7) to the over

The Bengals are 55.6% (5-4) to the over at home

The Bengals are 58.3% (7-5) to the over as a fav

The Bengals are 62.5% (5-3) to the over as a home fav

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 31.3% (5-11-1) against the spread

The Patriots are 50% (4-4) against the spread away

The Patriots are 36.4% (4-7-1) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 50% (3-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Patriots are 58.8% (10-7) to the under

The Patriots are 50% (4-4) to the over away

The Patriots are 58.3% (7-5) to the over as a dog

The Patriots are 66.7% (4-2) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/24/22 2022	Bengals	22	@	Patriots	18	301	61	240	2	4	-3.0	41.5	-4	U 40 -1.5

All Games Avg (1 games)		22.0	-	-	18.0	301	61	240	2.0	4.0	-3.0	41.5	-4.0 +1.0	U 40.0 -1.5