WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 75 – 92
Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever

Storm: 17-9 (65.4%) | Market Rating: +2.07

Fever: 12-15 (44.4%) | Market Rating: -1.25 | Home Court: +1.2 pts

Line: +4.0

Total: 171.0

Open: +2.5

Open: 167.5

Team totals: Storm 87.5 · Fever 83.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report SEANo report INDNo report

Notes

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Back favorite off a loss as a road favorite

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Double digit, in season revenge

Baller System(s)

Play under when home team seeks same-season double revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Storm

58.75% probability

Model Total

Over

55.63% probability

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/26/24 2024	Storm	-	vs.	Mystics	-	-10.5	161.0	-	-
08/20/24 2024	Storm	-	@	Mystics	-	-6.5	161.0	-	-
08/18/24 2024	Storm	-	@	Fever	-	-4.0	171.0	-	-
08/16/24	Storm	81	@	Dream	83	-7.0	157.0	+2	O 164 +7.0
2024	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 81.1
07/16/24	Storm	89	@	Sparks	83	-10.0	162.5	-6	O 172 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 78.2
07/14/24	Storm	81	vs.	Dream	70	-14.5	155.0	-11	U 151 -4.0
2024	ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 88.4 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 88.4 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 79.2
07/12/24	Storm	91	vs.	Lynx	63	-6.0	154.0	-28	P 154 0.0
2024	ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 82.5 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 82.5 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 76.4
07/10/24	Storm	79	vs.	Aces	84	+4.0	172.5	+5	U 163 -9.5
2024	ORtg: 94.5 DRtg: 100.5 Pace: 83.6			ORtg: 100.5 DRtg: 94.5 Pace: 83.6
07/07/24	Storm	84	vs.	Sky	71	-9.5	163.0	-13	U 155 -8.0
2024	ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 79.1
07/05/24	Storm	84	vs.	Sky	88	-10.0	162.0	+4	O 172 +10.0
2024	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 114.6 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 114.6 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 76.8
07/01/24	Storm	95	vs.	Wings	71	-11.5	167.5	-24	U 166 -1.5
2024	ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 78.3			ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 78.3
06/29/24	Storm	97	vs.	Wings	76	-10.5	167.0	-21	O 173 +6.0
2024	ORtg: 118.0 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 118.0 Pace: 82.2
06/27/24	Storm	89	vs.	Fever	77	-9.5	167.0	-12	U 166 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 115.4 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.4 Pace: 77.1

Away Games Avg (2 games)		85.0	-	-	83.0	-8.5	159.8	-2.0 -6.5	O 168.0 +8.3
	ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 79.6			ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 79.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		87.0	-	-	76.6	-8.5	162.8	-10.4 +2.0	O 163.6 +0.9
	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 96.7 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 96.7 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 79.2

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/26/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Dream	-	-1.5	167.0	-	-
08/24/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Lynx	-	+4.5	168.0	-	-
08/18/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Storm	-	+4.0	171.0	-	-
08/16/24	Fever	98	vs.	Mercury	89	-3.0	174.0	-9	O 187 +13.0
2024	ORtg: 122.4 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 122.4 Pace: 80.1
07/17/24	Fever	93	@	Wings	101	-4.5	178.0	+8	O 194 +16.0
2024	ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 118.4 Pace: 85.3			ORtg: 118.4 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 85.3
07/14/24	Fever	81	@	Lynx	74	+5.0	164.0	-7	U 155 -9.0
2024	ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 73.8
07/12/24	Fever	95	vs.	Mercury	86	-1.5	172.5	-9	O 181 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 83.0			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 83.0
07/10/24	Fever	84	vs.	Mystics	89	-7.0	167.5	+5	O 173 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 84.9			ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 84.9
07/06/24	Fever	83	vs.	Liberty	78	+10.5	174.5	-5	U 161 -13.5
2024	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 75.9
07/02/24	Fever	69	@	Aces	88	+13.5	179.0	+19	U 157 -22.0
2024	ORtg: 85.3 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 85.3 Pace: 80.9
06/30/24	Fever	88	@	Mercury	82	+8.0	175.0	-6	U 170 -5.0
2024	ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 80.7
06/27/24	Fever	77	@	Storm	89	+9.5	167.0	+12	U 166 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.4 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 115.4 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 77.1
06/23/24	Fever	87	@	Sky	88	+2.0	169.5	+1	O 175 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 82.3

Home Games Avg (4 games)		90.0	-	-	85.5	-0.3	172.1	-4.5 +4.3	O 175.5 +3.4
	ORtg: 111.3 DRtg: 105.6 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 105.6 DRtg: 111.3 Pace: 81.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		85.5	-	-	86.4	+3.3	172.1	+0.9 +2.4	U 171.9 -0.2
	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 80.4

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a home dog

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Fever (Home)

The Fever are 57.1% (16-12) against the spread

The Fever are 69.2% (9-4) against the spread at home

The Fever are 55.6% (10-8) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Fever are 64.3% (18-10) to the over

The Fever are 69.2% (9-4) to the over at home

The Fever are 50% (9-9) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) to the under as a home dog

The Fever are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fever are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Fever are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Fever are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Storm (Away)

The Storm are 55.6% (15-12) against the spread

The Storm are 46.2% (6-7) against the spread away

The Storm are 59.1% (13-9) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread as an away fav

The Storm are 57.7% (15-11-1) to the under

The Storm are 53.8% (7-6) to the under away

The Storm are 52.4% (11-10-1) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 55.6% (5-4) to the over as an away fav

The Storm are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Storm are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Storm are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Storm are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Storm are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Storm are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/27/24	Fever	77	@	Storm	89	+9.5	167.0	+12	U 166 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.4 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 115.4 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 77.1
05/30/24	Fever	88	vs.	Storm	103	+5.5	166.5	+15	O 191 +24.5
2024	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 81.6
05/22/24	Fever	83	@	Storm	85	+5.5	165.5	+2	O 168 +2.5
2024	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 75.1
08/24/23	Fever	90	vs.	Storm	86	-4.5	160.0	-4	O 176 +16.0
2023	ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 78.9
07/30/23	Fever	62	vs.	Storm	85	-4.0	162.0	+23	U 147 -15.0
2023	ORtg: 83.7 DRtg: 114.8 Pace: 74.1			ORtg: 114.8 DRtg: 83.7 Pace: 74.1
06/22/23	Fever	80	@	Storm	68	-1.5	164.0	-12	U 148 -16.0
2023	ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 83.1 Pace: 81.9			ORtg: 83.1 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 81.9

Fever as Home (3 games)		80.0	-	-	91.3	-1.0	162.8	+11.3 -12.3	O 171.3 +8.5
	ORtg: 101.9 DRtg: 116.7 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 116.7 DRtg: 101.9 Pace: 78.2

All Games Avg (6 games)		80.0	-	-	86.0	+1.8	164.2	+6.0 -4.3	O 166.0 +1.8
	ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 78.1

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Storm (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Storm (2x)
Cover Summary	Storm
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Over
Total Summary	Over
OVERALL	Storm \| Over

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 75 – 92 Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Seattle Storm", home_team: "Indiana Fever", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report SEANo report INDNo report

Notes

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Fever (Home)

Storm (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 75 – 92
Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever