WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 93 – 101
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings

Fever: 11-14 (44.0%) | Market Rating: -1.91

Wings: 5-19 (20.8%) | Market Rating: -2.50 | Home Court: +1.7 pts

Line: +4.5

Total: 178.0

Open: +4.5

Open: 173.5

Team totals: Fever 91.5 · Wings 86.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report DALNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Rest disadvantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

Over

55.63% probability

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/18/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Storm	-	+4.0	171.0	-	-
08/16/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Mercury	-	-3.0	174.0	-	-
07/17/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Wings	-	-4.5	178.0	-	-
07/14/24	Fever	81	@	Lynx	74	+5.0	164.0	-7	U 155 -9.0
2024	ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 73.8
07/12/24	Fever	95	vs.	Mercury	86	-1.5	172.5	-9	O 181 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 83.0			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 83.0
07/10/24	Fever	84	vs.	Mystics	89	-7.0	167.5	+5	O 173 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 84.9			ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 84.9
07/06/24	Fever	83	vs.	Liberty	78	+10.5	174.5	-5	U 161 -13.5
2024	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 75.9
07/02/24	Fever	69	@	Aces	88	+13.5	179.0	+19	U 157 -22.0
2024	ORtg: 85.3 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 85.3 Pace: 80.9
06/30/24	Fever	88	@	Mercury	82	+8.0	175.0	-6	U 170 -5.0
2024	ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 80.7
06/27/24	Fever	77	@	Storm	89	+9.5	167.0	+12	U 166 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.4 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 115.4 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 77.1
06/23/24	Fever	87	@	Sky	88	+2.0	169.5	+1	O 175 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 82.3
06/21/24	Fever	91	@	Dream	79	-3.0	163.0	-12	O 170 +7.0
2024	ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 79.7
06/19/24	Fever	88	vs.	Mystics	81	-5.0	167.0	-7	O 169 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 76.9

Away Games Avg (6 games)		82.2	-	-	83.3	+5.8	169.6	+1.2 +4.7	U 165.5 -4.1
	ORtg: 104.0 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 104.0 Pace: 79.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		84.3	-	-	83.4	+3.2	169.9	-0.9 +4.1	U 167.7 -2.2
	ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 79.5

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/20/24 2024	Wings	-	@	Liberty	-	+11.0	174.0	-	-
08/16/24 2024	Wings	-	vs.	Sun	-	+6.0	160.5	-	-
07/17/24 2024	Wings	-	vs.	Fever	-	+4.5	178.0	-	-
07/13/24	Wings	81	vs.	Sparks	87	-3.5	171.0	+6	U 168 -3.0
2024	ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 81.3
07/10/24	Wings	84	@	Mercury	100	+7.5	173.0	+16	O 184 +11.0
2024	ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 131.8 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 131.8 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 75.9
07/07/24	Wings	85	@	Aces	104	+16.0	180.0	+19	O 189 +9.0
2024	ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 122.9 Pace: 84.6			ORtg: 122.9 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 84.6
07/05/24	Wings	85	vs.	Dream	82	-4.5	162.5	-3	O 167 +4.5
2024	ORtg: 96.3 DRtg: 92.9 Pace: 88.3			ORtg: 92.9 DRtg: 96.3 Pace: 88.3
07/03/24	Wings	96	vs.	Mercury	104	+5.0	171.5	+8	O 200 +28.5
2024	ORtg: 125.4 DRtg: 135.9 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 135.9 DRtg: 125.4 Pace: 76.5
07/01/24	Wings	71	@	Storm	95	+11.5	167.5	+24	U 166 -1.5
2024	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 78.3			ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 78.3
06/29/24	Wings	76	@	Storm	97	+10.5	167.0	+21	O 173 +6.0
2024	ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 118.0 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 118.0 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 82.2
06/27/24	Wings	94	vs.	Lynx	88	+9.0	164.0	-6	O 182 +18.0
2024	ORtg: 122.4 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 122.4 Pace: 76.8
06/23/24	Wings	84	@	Mystics	92	+1.0	163.0	+8	O 176 +13.0
2024	ORtg: 109.9 DRtg: 120.4 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 120.4 DRtg: 109.9 Pace: 76.4
06/22/24	Wings	69	@	Mystics	97	-3.0	159.5	+28	O 166 +6.5
2024	ORtg: 82.6 DRtg: 116.1 Pace: 83.5			ORtg: 116.1 DRtg: 82.6 Pace: 83.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		89.0	-	-	90.3	+1.5	167.3	+1.3 +0.3	O 179.3 +12.0
	ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 112.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 112.6 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 80.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		82.5	-	-	94.6	+5.0	167.9	+12.1 -7.2	O 177.1 +9.2
	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 80.4

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Wings are 27.3% (3-8) against the spread at home

The Wings are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 72.7% (8-3) to the over at home

The Wings are 73.7% (14-5) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 85.7% (6-1) to the over as a home dog

The Wings are 23.1% (3-10) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 30% (3-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 76.9% (10-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Wings are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Wings are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 88.9% (8-1) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 75% (3-1) to the over as an away fav

The Fever are 100% (5-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 32% (8-17) against the spread

The Wings are 27.3% (3-8) against the spread at home

The Wings are 36.8% (7-12) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 68% (17-8) to the over

The Wings are 72.7% (8-3) to the over at home

The Wings are 73.7% (14-5) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 85.7% (6-1) to the over as a home dog

The Wings are 23.1% (3-10) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 30% (3-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 76.9% (10-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Wings are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Wings are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 53.8% (14-12) against the spread

The Fever are 46.7% (7-8) against the spread away

The Fever are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 65.4% (17-9) to the over

The Fever are 60% (9-6) to the over away

The Fever are 88.9% (8-1) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 75% (3-1) to the over as an away fav

The Fever are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under away

The Fever are 100% (5-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/03/23	Wings	84	vs.	Fever	97 OT	-9.5	171.0	+13	O 181 +10.0
2023	ORtg: 94.5 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 94.5 Pace: 80.5
09/01/23	Wings	110	@	Fever	100	-4.0	170.5	-10	O 210 +39.5
2023	ORtg: 141.4 DRtg: 128.6 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 128.6 DRtg: 141.4 Pace: 77.8
07/09/23	Wings	77	@	Fever	76	-3.5	168.5	-1	U 153 -15.5
2023	ORtg: 100.3 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 100.3 Pace: 76.8

Wings as Home (1 games)		84.0	-	-	97.0	-9.5	171.0	+13.0 -22.5	O 181.0 +10.0
	ORtg: 94.5 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 94.5 Pace: 80.5

All Games Avg (3 games)		90.3	-	-	91.0	-5.7	170.0	+0.7 -6.3	O 181.3 +11.3
	ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 112.2 Pace: 78.3			ORtg: 112.2 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 78.3

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Over
Total Summary	Over
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| Over

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 93 – 101 Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report DALNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

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Wings (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 93 – 101
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings