WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 89 – 84
Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever

Mystics: 5-17 (22.7%) | Market Rating: -3.18

Fever: 9-13 (40.9%) | Market Rating: -2.88 | Home Court: +0.7 pts

Line: -7.0

Total: 167.5

Open: -5.5

Open: 168

Team totals: Mystics 80.5 · Fever 87.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report WASNo report INDNo report

Notes

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

In season revenge

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Fade team off 2 game losing streak when previous game was at home

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Mystics

58.75% probability

Model Total

Over

55.63% probability

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/16/24 2024	Mystics	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+4.5	167.5	-	-
07/14/24 2024	Mystics	-	vs.	Aces	-	+12.0	171.5	-	-
07/10/24 2024	Mystics	-	@	Fever	-	+7.0	167.5	-	-
07/06/24	Mystics	67	@	Lynx	74	+9.0	158.0	+7	U 141 -17.0
2024	ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 74.6			ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 74.6
07/04/24	Mystics	77	@	Aces	98	+15.5	172.5	+21	O 175 +2.5
2024	ORtg: 93.0 DRtg: 118.4 Pace: 82.8			ORtg: 118.4 DRtg: 93.0 Pace: 82.8
07/02/24	Mystics	82	@	Sparks	80	+1.5	162.5	-2	U 162 -0.5
2024	ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 74.8
06/29/24	Mystics	77	vs.	Aces	88	+13.5	174.5	+11	U 165 -9.5
2024	ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 112.8 Pace: 78.0			ORtg: 112.8 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 78.0
06/27/24	Mystics	91	vs.	Sun	94 OT	+10.5	152.0	+3	O 185 +33.0
2024	ORtg: 104.2 DRtg: 107.7 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 107.7 DRtg: 104.2 Pace: 79.1
06/23/24	Mystics	92	vs.	Wings	84	-1.0	163.0	-8	O 176 +13.0
2024	ORtg: 120.4 DRtg: 109.9 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 109.9 DRtg: 120.4 Pace: 76.4
06/22/24	Mystics	97	vs.	Wings	69	+3.0	159.5	-28	O 166 +6.5
2024	ORtg: 116.1 DRtg: 82.6 Pace: 83.5			ORtg: 82.6 DRtg: 116.1 Pace: 83.5
06/19/24	Mystics	81	@	Fever	88	+5.0	167.0	+7	O 169 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 76.9
06/14/24	Mystics	83	vs.	Sky	81	+2.5	158.5	-2	O 164 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 101.4 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 101.4 Pace: 81.8
06/11/24	Mystics	87	@	Dream	68	+6.0	156.5	-19	U 155 -1.5
2024	ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 92.3 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 92.3 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 73.7

Away Games Avg (5 games)		78.8	-	-	81.6	+7.4	163.3	+2.8 +4.6	U 160.4 -2.9
	ORtg: 103.2 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 103.2 Pace: 76.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.4	-	-	82.4	+6.6	162.4	-1.0 +7.6	O 165.8 +3.4
	ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 78.2

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/14/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Lynx	-	+5.0	164.0	-	-
07/12/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Mercury	-	-1.5	172.5	-	-
07/10/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Mystics	-	-7.0	167.5	-	-
07/06/24	Fever	83	vs.	Liberty	78	+10.5	174.5	-5	U 161 -13.5
2024	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 75.9
07/02/24	Fever	69	@	Aces	88	+13.5	179.0	+19	U 157 -22.0
2024	ORtg: 85.3 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 85.3 Pace: 80.9
06/30/24	Fever	88	@	Mercury	82	+8.0	175.0	-6	U 170 -5.0
2024	ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 80.7
06/27/24	Fever	77	@	Storm	89	+9.5	167.0	+12	U 166 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.4 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 115.4 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 77.1
06/23/24	Fever	87	@	Sky	88	+2.0	169.5	+1	O 175 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 82.3
06/21/24	Fever	91	@	Dream	79	-3.0	163.0	-12	O 170 +7.0
2024	ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 79.7
06/19/24	Fever	88	vs.	Mystics	81	-5.0	167.0	-7	O 169 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 76.9
06/16/24	Fever	91	vs.	Sky	83	-2.5	170.0	-8	O 174 +4.0
2024	ORtg: 118.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 118.7 Pace: 76.6
06/13/24	Fever	91	vs.	Dream	84	+2.5	164.0	-7	O 175 +11.0
2024	ORtg: 118.6 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 118.6 Pace: 76.7
06/10/24	Fever	72	@	Sun	89	+10.0	159.5	+17	O 161 +1.5
2024	ORtg: 100.7 DRtg: 124.5 Pace: 71.5			ORtg: 124.5 DRtg: 100.7 Pace: 71.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		88.3	-	-	81.5	+1.4	168.9	-6.8 +8.1	O 169.8 +0.9
	ORtg: 115.3 DRtg: 106.5 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 106.5 DRtg: 115.3 Pace: 76.5

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.7	-	-	84.1	+4.6	168.9	+0.4 +4.2	U 167.8 -1.1
	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 108.2 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 108.2 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 77.8

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On / Off Court

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Notable Trends

The Fever are 70% (7-3) to the over at home

The Fever are 85.7% (6-1) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 100% (4-0) to the over as a home fav

The Fever are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fever are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Fever are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Mystics are 81.8% (9-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

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Fever (Home)

The Fever are 52.2% (12-11) against the spread

The Fever are 60% (6-4) against the spread at home

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Fever are 65.2% (15-8) to the over

The Fever are 70% (7-3) to the over at home

The Fever are 85.7% (6-1) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 100% (4-0) to the over as a home fav

The Fever are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fever are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Fever are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Fever are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Mystics (Away)

The Mystics are 69.6% (16-7) against the spread

The Mystics are 69.2% (9-4) against the spread away

The Mystics are 68.2% (15-7) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 69.2% (9-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Mystics are 60.9% (14-9) to the over

The Mystics are 61.5% (8-5) to the over away

The Mystics are 59.1% (13-9) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 61.5% (8-5) to the over as an away dog

The Mystics are 81.8% (9-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mystics are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Mystics are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) to the over away

The Mystics are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/19/24	Fever	88	vs.	Mystics	81	-5.0	167.0	-7	O 169 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 76.9
06/07/24	Fever	85	@	Mystics	83	-4.5	160.5	-2	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 79.5
08/18/23	Fever	79	vs.	Mystics	83	+5.0	162.0	+4	P 162 0.0
2023	ORtg: 101.9 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 101.9 Pace: 77.5
07/19/23	Fever	82	@	Mystics	76	+2.0	158.0	-6	P 158 0.0
2023	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 96.5 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 96.5 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 78.8
07/07/23	Fever	88	@	Mystics	96	+3.0	157.0	+8	O 184 +27.0
2023	ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 129.0 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 129.0 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 74.4
06/13/23	Fever	87	vs.	Mystics	66	+4.5	157.0	-21	U 153 -4.0
2023	ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 86.6 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 86.6 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 76.2

Fever as Home (3 games)		84.7	-	-	76.7	+1.5	162.0	-8.0 +9.5	U 161.3 -0.7
	ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 76.9

All Games Avg (6 games)		84.8	-	-	80.8	+0.8	160.3	-4.0 +4.8	O 165.7 +5.4
	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 104.8 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 104.8 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 77.2

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Mystics (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Mystics (2x)
Cover Summary	Mystics
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Over
Total Summary	Over
OVERALL	Mystics \| Over

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 89 – 84 Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Washington Mystics", home_team: "Indiana Fever", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report WASNo report INDNo report

Notes

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Fever (Home)

Mystics (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 89 – 84
Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever