WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 88 – 82
Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury

Fever: 7-12 (36.8%) | Market Rating: -2.11

Mercury: 9-8 (52.9%) | Market Rating: -1.73 | Home Court: +2.4 pts

Line: -8.0

Total: 175.0

Open: -7

Open: 170.5

Team totals: Fever 83.5 · Mercury 92.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report PHXNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Fade team off 2 game losing streak when previous game was at home

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Fever

55.63% probability

Model Total

Over

55.63% probability

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/06/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+10.5	174.5	-	-
07/02/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Aces	-	+13.5	179.0	-	-
06/30/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Mercury	-	+8.0	175.0	-	-
06/27/24	Fever	77	@	Storm	89	+9.5	167.0	+12	U 166 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.4 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 115.4 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 77.1
06/23/24	Fever	87	@	Sky	88	+2.0	169.5	+1	O 175 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 82.3
06/21/24	Fever	91	@	Dream	79	-3.0	163.0	-12	O 170 +7.0
2024	ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 79.7
06/19/24	Fever	88	vs.	Mystics	81	-5.0	167.0	-7	O 169 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 76.9
06/16/24	Fever	91	vs.	Sky	83	-2.5	170.0	-8	O 174 +4.0
2024	ORtg: 118.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 118.7 Pace: 76.6
06/13/24	Fever	91	vs.	Dream	84	+2.5	164.0	-7	O 175 +11.0
2024	ORtg: 118.6 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 118.6 Pace: 76.7
06/10/24	Fever	72	@	Sun	89	+10.0	159.5	+17	O 161 +1.5
2024	ORtg: 100.7 DRtg: 124.5 Pace: 71.5			ORtg: 124.5 DRtg: 100.7 Pace: 71.5
06/07/24	Fever	85	@	Mystics	83	-4.5	160.5	-2	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 79.5
06/02/24	Fever	68	@	Liberty	104	+14.5	169.0	+36	O 172 +3.0
2024	ORtg: 85.7 DRtg: 131.1 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 131.1 DRtg: 85.7 Pace: 79.3
06/01/24	Fever	71	vs.	Sky	70	+1.5	167.5	-1	U 141 -26.5
2024	ORtg: 92.9 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 92.9 Pace: 76.4

Away Games Avg (6 games)		80.0	-	-	88.7	+4.8	164.8	+8.7 -3.9	O 168.7 +3.9
	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 113.6 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 113.6 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 78.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		82.1	-	-	85.0	+2.5	165.7	+2.9 -0.4	O 167.1 +1.4
	ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 77.6

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/03/24 2024	Mercury	-	@	Wings	-	-5.0	171.5	-	-
07/01/24 2024	Mercury	-	vs.	Sun	-	+3.0	157.5	-	-
06/30/24 2024	Mercury	-	vs.	Fever	-	-8.0	175.0	-	-
06/28/24	Mercury	92	vs.	Sparks	78	-10.0	168.5	-14	O 170 +1.5
2024	ORtg: 116.8 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 116.8 Pace: 78.8
06/22/24	Mercury	60	@	Lynx	73	+6.0	167.5	+13	U 133 -34.5
2024	ORtg: 74.5 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 74.5 Pace: 80.5
06/18/24	Mercury	99	vs.	Liberty	93	+5.5	171.5	-6	O 192 +20.5
2024	ORtg: 116.8 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 84.8			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 116.8 Pace: 84.8
06/16/24	Mercury	87	vs.	Storm	78	+3.0	166.0	-9	U 165 -1.0
2024	ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 96.1 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 96.1 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 81.2
06/13/24	Mercury	99	vs.	Aces	103	+6.0	169.5	+4	O 202 +32.5
2024	ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 126.2 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 126.2 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 81.6
06/09/24	Mercury	97	@	Wings	90 2OT	-1.0	163.5	-7	O 187 +23.5
2024	ORtg: 103.7 DRtg: 96.2 Pace: 84.7			ORtg: 96.2 DRtg: 103.7 Pace: 84.7
06/07/24	Mercury	81	vs.	Lynx	80	+4.5	161.5	-1	U 161 -0.5
2024	ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 80.1
06/04/24	Mercury	62	@	Storm	80	+5.0	164.0	+18	U 142 -22.0
2024	ORtg: 70.4 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 88.1			ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 70.4 Pace: 88.1
06/02/24	Mercury	87	vs.	Sparks	68	-5.0	162.0	-19	U 155 -7.0
2024	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 87.4 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 87.4 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 77.8
05/31/24	Mercury	71	@	Lynx	95	+6.5	165.0	+24	O 166 +1.0
2024	ORtg: 96.8 DRtg: 129.5 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 129.5 DRtg: 96.8 Pace: 73.4

Home Games Avg (6 games)		90.8	-	-	83.3	+0.7	166.5	-7.5 +8.2	O 174.2 +7.7
	ORtg: 112.5 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 112.5 Pace: 80.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.5	-	-	83.8	+2.1	165.9	+0.3 +1.8	O 167.3 +1.4
	ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 102.5 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 102.5 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 81.1

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Mercury are 70% (7-3) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 70% (14-6) to the over

The Fever are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over away

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Mercury (Home)

The Mercury are 61.1% (11-7) against the spread

The Mercury are 70% (7-3) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a home fav

The Mercury are 50% (9-9) to the over

The Mercury are 60% (6-4) to the over at home

The Mercury are 66.7% (4-2) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 60% (3-2) to the over as a home fav

The Mercury are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Mercury are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Mercury are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 55% (11-9) against the spread

The Fever are 50% (6-6) against the spread away

The Fever are 50% (7-7) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread as an away dog

The Fever are 70% (14-6) to the over

The Fever are 66.7% (8-4) to the over away

The Fever are 64.3% (9-5) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 66.7% (6-3) to the over as an away dog

The Fever are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Fever are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/20/23	Mercury	73	vs.	Fever	83	+4.0	161.0	+10	U 156 -5.0
2023	ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 112.6 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 112.6 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 73.7
08/01/23	Mercury	71	@	Fever	72	+6.0	158.5	+1	U 143 -15.5
2023	ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 79.1
06/29/23	Mercury	85	vs.	Fever	63	+2.5	162.5	-22	U 148 -14.5
2023	ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 82.7 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 82.7 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 76.2
06/11/23	Mercury	85	@	Fever	82	+3.5	161.5	-3	O 167 +5.5
2023	ORtg: 116.8 DRtg: 112.6 Pace: 72.8			ORtg: 112.6 DRtg: 116.8 Pace: 72.8

Mercury as Home (2 games)		79.0	-	-	73.0	+3.3	161.8	-6.0 +9.3	U 152.0 -9.8
	ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 75.0

All Games Avg (4 games)		78.5	-	-	75.0	+4.0	160.9	-3.5 +7.5	U 153.5 -7.4
	ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 75.4

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Fever (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	Fever
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Over
Total Summary	Over
OVERALL	Fever \| Over

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 88 – 82 Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Phoenix Mercury", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report PHXNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Mercury (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 88 – 82
Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury