WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 81 – 83
Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics

Sky: 4-7 (36.4%) | Market Rating: -2.22

Mystics: 1-12 (7.7%) | Market Rating: -3.00 | Home Court: 0.0 pts

Line: +2.5

Total: 158.5

Open: +0.5

Open: 157.5

Team totals: Sky 80.5 · Mystics 78.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Want to see only your books? Want to see where the sharp action is coming in? Become a member or log in.

Games
Conversions

Loading game odds...

Injury Report CHINo report WASNo report

Notes

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Back team w/ more rest and less road games in previous 5 games

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

In season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back team off a win as a dog and revenge (where they lost by 15 or fewer points)

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

Under

55.63% probability

View All Algorithms

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

Loading filters...

Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/20/24 2024	Sky	-	vs.	Wings	-	-6.0	163.0	-	-
06/16/24 2024	Sky	-	@	Fever	-	+2.5	170.0	-	-
06/14/24 2024	Sky	-	@	Mystics	-	-2.5	158.5	-	-
06/12/24	Sky	75	vs.	Sun	83	+7.5	153.5	+8	O 158 +4.5
2024	ORtg: 100.7 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 74.5			ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 100.7 Pace: 74.5
06/08/24	Sky	80	vs.	Dream	89	+1.0	158.5	+9	O 169 +10.5
2024	ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 78.4
06/06/24	Sky	79	@	Mystics	71	-3.0	156.0	-8	U 150 -6.0
2024	ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 86.2			ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 86.2
06/04/24	Sky	75	vs.	Liberty	88	+8.0	165.5	+13	U 163 -2.5
2024	ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 80.8
06/01/24	Sky	70	@	Fever	71	-1.5	167.5	+1	U 141 -26.5
2024	ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 92.9 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 92.9 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 76.4
05/30/24	Sky	83	vs.	Sparks	73	-4.5	160.0	-10	U 156 -4.0
2024	ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 80.2
05/28/24	Sky	68	vs.	Storm	77	+2.0	165.0	+9	U 145 -20.0
2024	ORtg: 83.5 DRtg: 94.6 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 94.6 DRtg: 83.5 Pace: 81.4
05/25/24	Sky	82	vs.	Sun	86	+5.0	160.5	+4	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 115.9 DRtg: 121.6 Pace: 70.7			ORtg: 121.6 DRtg: 115.9 Pace: 70.7
05/23/24	Sky	90	@	Liberty	81	+15.5	165.0	-9	O 171 +6.0
2024	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 100.6 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 100.6 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 80.5
05/18/24	Sky	83	@	Wings	74	+5.0	164.0	-9	U 157 -7.0
2024	ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 88.4 Pace: 83.7			ORtg: 88.4 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 83.7

Away Games Avg (4 games)		80.5	-	-	74.3	+4.0	163.1	-6.3 +10.3	U 154.8 -8.4
	ORtg: 98.5 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 98.5 Pace: 81.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		78.5	-	-	79.3	+3.5	161.6	+0.8 +2.7	U 157.8 -3.8
	ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 100.5 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 100.5 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 79.3

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/22/24 2024	Mystics	-	vs.	Wings	-	+3.0	159.5	-	-
06/19/24 2024	Mystics	-	@	Fever	-	+5.0	167.0	-	-
06/14/24 2024	Mystics	-	vs.	Sky	-	+2.5	158.5	-	-
06/11/24	Mystics	87	@	Dream	68	+6.0	156.5	-19	U 155 -1.5
2024	ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 92.3 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 92.3 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 73.7
06/09/24	Mystics	88	@	Liberty	93	+14.0	156.0	+5	O 181 +25.0
2024	ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 117.8 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 117.8 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 78.9
06/07/24	Mystics	83	vs.	Fever	85	+4.5	160.5	+2	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 79.5
06/06/24	Mystics	71	vs.	Sky	79	+3.0	156.0	+8	U 150 -6.0
2024	ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 86.2			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 86.2
06/04/24	Mystics	59	@	Sun	76	+13.0	152.0	+17	U 135 -17.0
2024	ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 71.6			ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 71.6
05/31/24	Mystics	79	@	Liberty	90	+13.0	159.5	+11	O 169 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 112.4 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 112.4 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 80.0
05/29/24	Mystics	67	vs.	Dream	73	+3.0	163.5	+6	U 140 -23.5
2024	ORtg: 84.4 DRtg: 92.0 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 92.0 DRtg: 84.4 Pace: 79.4
05/25/24	Mystics	69	@	Storm	101	+8.5	159.5	+32	O 170 +10.5
2024	ORtg: 90.6 DRtg: 132.6 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 132.6 DRtg: 90.6 Pace: 76.1
05/23/24	Mystics	80	@	Mercury	83	+6.0	161.5	+3	O 163 +1.5
2024	ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 101.4 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 101.4 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 81.8
05/21/24	Mystics	68	@	Sparks	70	+2.5	158.5	+2	U 138 -20.5
2024	ORtg: 87.0 DRtg: 89.5 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 89.5 DRtg: 87.0 Pace: 78.2

Home Games Avg (3 games)		73.7	-	-	79.0	+3.5	160.0	+5.3 -1.8	U 152.7 -7.3
	ORtg: 90.4 DRtg: 96.8 Pace: 81.7			ORtg: 96.8 DRtg: 90.4 Pace: 81.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		75.1	-	-	81.8	+7.4	158.4	+6.7 +0.7	U 156.9 -1.5
	ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 78.6

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Loading team comparison stats...

On / Off Court

Follows the Team Comparison Stats filters above.

Next Player Up

Records

Loading records...

Notable Trends

The Sky are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Sky are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

View All Records

Mystics (Home)

The Mystics are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) against the spread at home

The Mystics are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a home dog

The Mystics are 57.1% (8-6) to the over

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) to the over at home

The Mystics are 57.1% (8-6) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) to the over as a home dog

The Mystics are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mystics are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Mystics are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) to the over

The Mystics are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Mystics are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Sky (Away)

The Sky are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread

The Sky are 50% (3-3) against the spread away

The Sky are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a fav

The Sky are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Sky are 50% (6-6) to the over

The Sky are 50% (3-3) to the over away

The Sky are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Sky are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as an away fav

The Sky are 41.7% (5-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sky are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Sky are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Sky are 50% (6-6) (L30 days) to the over

The Sky are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sky are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Sky are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/06/24	Mystics	71	vs.	Sky	79	+3.0	156.0	+8	U 150 -6.0
2024	ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 86.2			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 86.2
08/13/23	Mystics	83	vs.	Sky	76	-2.5	161.5	-7	U 159 -2.5
2023	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 98.5 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 98.5 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 77.1
06/22/23	Mystics	80	@	Sky	59	-2.5	155.5	-21	U 139 -16.5
2023	ORtg: 101.4 DRtg: 74.8 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 74.8 DRtg: 101.4 Pace: 78.9
06/18/23	Mystics	77	vs.	Sky	69	-4.5	155.5	-8	U 146 -9.5
2023	ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 74.3			ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 74.3
05/26/23	Mystics	71	@	Sky	69	-5.0	157.0	-2	U 140 -17.0
2023	ORtg: 86.7 DRtg: 84.3 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 84.3 DRtg: 86.7 Pace: 81.8

Mystics as Home (3 games)		77.0	-	-	74.7	-1.3	157.7	-2.3 +1.0	U 151.7 -6.0
	ORtg: 97.9 DRtg: 94.3 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 94.3 DRtg: 97.9 Pace: 79.2

All Games Avg (5 games)		76.4	-	-	70.4	-2.3	157.1	-6.0 +3.7	U 146.8 -10.3
	ORtg: 96.3 DRtg: 88.4 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 88.4 DRtg: 96.3 Pace: 79.7

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Under
Total Summary	Under
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| Under

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 81 – 83 Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Chicago Sky", home_team: "Washington Mystics", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report CHINo report WASNo report

Notes

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Mystics (Home)

Sky (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 81 – 83
Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics