WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 72 – 89
Indiana Fever @ Connecticut Sun

Fever: 3-9 (25.0%) | Market Rating: -2.35

Sun: 9-1 (90.0%) | Market Rating: +2.63 | Home Court: +2.4 pts

Line: -10.0

Total: 159.5

Open: -12.5

Open: 161.5

Team totals: Fever 73.5 · Sun 85.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report CONNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

In season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back double digit dog off a win

Back road team off win w/ more rest

Sun

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Fever

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/16/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Sky	-	-2.5	170.0	-	-
06/13/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Dream	-	+2.5	164.0	-	-
06/10/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Sun	-	+10.0	159.5	-	-
06/07/24	Fever	85	@	Mystics	83	-4.5	160.5	-2	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 79.5
06/02/24	Fever	68	@	Liberty	104	+14.5	169.0	+36	O 172 +3.0
2024	ORtg: 85.7 DRtg: 131.1 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 131.1 DRtg: 85.7 Pace: 79.3
06/01/24	Fever	71	vs.	Sky	70	+1.5	167.5	-1	U 141 -26.5
2024	ORtg: 92.9 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 92.9 Pace: 76.4
05/30/24	Fever	88	vs.	Storm	103	+5.5	166.5	+15	O 191 +24.5
2024	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 81.6
05/28/24	Fever	82	vs.	Sparks	88	-5.5	164.5	+6	O 170 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 80.2
05/25/24	Fever	80	@	Aces	99	+16.0	174.5	+19	O 179 +4.5
2024	ORtg: 99.1 DRtg: 122.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 122.6 DRtg: 99.1 Pace: 80.7
05/24/24	Fever	78	@	Sparks	73	-1.5	165.0	-5	U 151 -14.0
2024	ORtg: 96.4 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 96.4 Pace: 80.9
05/22/24	Fever	83	@	Storm	85	+5.5	165.5	+2	O 168 +2.5
2024	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 75.1
05/20/24	Fever	84	vs.	Sun	88	+5.5	163.5	+4	O 172 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 75.2
05/18/24	Fever	80	@	Liberty	91	+14.0	169.0	+11	O 171 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 95.9 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 83.4			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 95.9 Pace: 83.4

Away Games Avg (6 games)		79.0	-	-	89.2	+7.3	167.3	+10.2 -2.8	O 168.2 +0.9
	ORtg: 99.1 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 99.1 Pace: 79.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		79.9	-	-	88.4	+5.1	166.6	+8.5 -3.4	O 168.3 +1.8
	ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 79.2

Sun Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/15/24 2024	Sun	-	@	Wings	-	-6.5	156.5	-	-
06/12/24 2024	Sun	-	@	Sky	-	-7.5	153.5	-	-
06/10/24 2024	Sun	-	vs.	Fever	-	-10.0	159.5	-	-
06/08/24	Sun	75	vs.	Liberty	82	+2.0	154.0	+7	O 157 +3.0
2024	ORtg: 97.2 DRtg: 106.3 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 106.3 DRtg: 97.2 Pace: 77.2
06/04/24	Sun	76	vs.	Mystics	59	-13.0	152.0	-17	U 135 -17.0
2024	ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 71.6			ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 71.6
06/02/24	Sun	69	@	Dream	50	-2.5	159.0	-19	U 119 -40.0
2024	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 65.7 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 65.7 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 76.1
05/31/24	Sun	74	vs.	Wings	72	-8.5	161.5	-2	U 146 -15.5
2024	ORtg: 106.3 DRtg: 103.4 Pace: 69.6			ORtg: 103.4 DRtg: 106.3 Pace: 69.6
05/28/24	Sun	70	vs.	Mercury	47	-8.0	168.0	-23	U 117 -51.0
2024	ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 60.6 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 60.6 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 77.6
05/25/24	Sun	86	@	Sky	82	-5.0	160.5	-4	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 121.6 DRtg: 115.9 Pace: 70.7			ORtg: 115.9 DRtg: 121.6 Pace: 70.7
05/23/24	Sun	83	vs.	Lynx	82 OT	-6.5	165.0	-1	P 165 0.0
2024	ORtg: 95.6 DRtg: 94.5 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 94.5 DRtg: 95.6 Pace: 78.6
05/20/24	Sun	88	@	Fever	84	-5.5	163.5	-4	O 172 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2
05/17/24	Sun	84	vs.	Mystics	77	-8.0	157.5	-7	O 161 +3.5
2024	ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 98.4 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 98.4 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 78.2
05/14/24	Sun	92	vs.	Fever	71	-6.5	166.5	-21	U 163 -3.5
2024	ORtg: 114.8 DRtg: 88.6 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 88.6 DRtg: 114.8 Pace: 80.1

Home Games Avg (7 games)		79.1	-	-	70.0	-6.9	160.6	-9.1 +2.2	U 149.1 -11.5
	ORtg: 102.5 DRtg: 90.6 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 90.6 DRtg: 102.5 Pace: 76.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		79.7	-	-	70.6	-6.2	160.8	-9.1 +3.0	U 150.3 -10.5
	ORtg: 104.7 DRtg: 92.7 Pace: 75.5			ORtg: 92.7 DRtg: 104.7 Pace: 75.5

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Fever are 75% (6-2) to the over away

The Fever are 70% (7-3) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) to the over as an away dog

The Fever are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

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Sun (Home)

The Sun are 45.5% (5-6) against the spread

The Sun are 50% (4-4) against the spread at home

The Sun are 50% (5-5) against the spread as a fav

The Sun are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as a home fav

The Sun are 50% (5-5-1) to the over

The Sun are 57.1% (4-3-1) to the under at home

The Sun are 55.6% (5-4-1) to the under as a fav

The Sun are 66.7% (4-2-1) to the under as a home fav

The Sun are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sun are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sun are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Sun are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Sun are 50% (5-5-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Sun are 57.1% (4-3-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Sun are 55.6% (5-4-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Sun are 66.7% (4-2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 38.5% (5-8) against the spread

The Fever are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread away

The Fever are 40% (4-6) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Fever are 69.2% (9-4) to the over

The Fever are 75% (6-2) to the over away

The Fever are 70% (7-3) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) to the over as an away dog

The Fever are 38.5% (5-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 37.5% (3-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Fever are 69.2% (9-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/20/24	Sun	88	@	Fever	84	-5.5	163.5	-4	O 172 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2
05/14/24	Sun	92	vs.	Fever	71	-6.5	166.5	-21	U 163 -3.5
2024	ORtg: 114.8 DRtg: 88.6 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 88.6 DRtg: 114.8 Pace: 80.1
09/08/23	Sun	76	vs.	Fever	59	-10.0	160.5	-17	U 135 -25.5
2023	ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 78.6 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 78.6 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 75.1
08/04/23	Sun	88	@	Fever	72	-8.0	160.5	-16	U 160 -0.5
2023	ORtg: 119.9 DRtg: 98.1 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 98.1 DRtg: 119.9 Pace: 73.4
05/30/23	Sun	81	vs.	Fever	78	-12.5	158.0	-3	O 159 +1.0
2023	ORtg: 105.4 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 105.4 Pace: 76.9
05/19/23	Sun	70	@	Fever	61	-8.0	162.0	-9	U 131 -31.0
2023	ORtg: 85.9 DRtg: 74.9 Pace: 81.5			ORtg: 74.9 DRtg: 85.9 Pace: 81.5

Sun as Home (3 games)		83.0	-	-	69.3	-9.7	161.7	-13.7 +4.0	U 152.3 -9.3
	ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 89.6 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 89.6 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.4

All Games Avg (6 games)		82.5	-	-	70.8	-8.4	161.8	-11.7 +3.3	U 153.3 -8.5
	ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 77.0

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Fever (2x)
Cover Summary	Fever
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Fever \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 72 – 89 Indiana Fever @ Connecticut Sun window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Connecticut Sun", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report CONNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Sun

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Sun Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Sun (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 72 – 89
Indiana Fever @ Connecticut Sun