WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 85 – 83
Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics

Fever: 2-9 (18.2%) | Market Rating: -2.68

Mystics: 0-10 (0.0%) | Market Rating: -2.61 | Home Court: +1.4 pts

Line: +4.5

Total: 160.5

Open: -1.5

Open: 163.5

Team totals: Fever 82.5 · Mystics 78.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report WASNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

Over

55.63% probability

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/13/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Dream	-	+2.5	164.0	-	-
06/10/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Sun	-	+10.0	159.5	-	-
06/07/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Mystics	-	-4.5	160.5	-	-
06/02/24	Fever	68	@	Liberty	104	+14.5	169.0	+36	O 172 +3.0
2024	ORtg: 85.7 DRtg: 131.1 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 131.1 DRtg: 85.7 Pace: 79.3
06/01/24	Fever	71	vs.	Sky	70	+1.5	167.5	-1	U 141 -26.5
2024	ORtg: 92.9 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 92.9 Pace: 76.4
05/30/24	Fever	88	vs.	Storm	103	+5.5	166.5	+15	O 191 +24.5
2024	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 81.6
05/28/24	Fever	82	vs.	Sparks	88	-5.5	164.5	+6	O 170 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 80.2
05/25/24	Fever	80	@	Aces	99	+16.0	174.5	+19	O 179 +4.5
2024	ORtg: 99.1 DRtg: 122.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 122.6 DRtg: 99.1 Pace: 80.7
05/24/24	Fever	78	@	Sparks	73	-1.5	165.0	-5	U 151 -14.0
2024	ORtg: 96.4 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 96.4 Pace: 80.9
05/22/24	Fever	83	@	Storm	85	+5.5	165.5	+2	O 168 +2.5
2024	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 75.1
05/20/24	Fever	84	vs.	Sun	88	+5.5	163.5	+4	O 172 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 75.2
05/18/24	Fever	80	@	Liberty	91	+14.0	169.0	+11	O 171 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 95.9 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 83.4			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 95.9 Pace: 83.4
05/16/24	Fever	66	vs.	Liberty	102	+8.0	170.0	+36	U 168 -2.0
2024	ORtg: 86.6 DRtg: 133.9 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 133.9 DRtg: 86.6 Pace: 76.2

Away Games Avg (5 games)		77.8	-	-	90.4	+9.7	168.6	+12.6 -2.9	U 168.2 -0.4
	ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 113.3 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 113.3 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 79.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		78.0	-	-	90.3	+6.4	167.5	+12.3 -6.0	O 168.3 +0.8
	ORtg: 98.9 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 98.9 Pace: 78.9

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/11/24 2024	Mystics	-	@	Dream	-	+6.0	156.5	-	-
06/09/24 2024	Mystics	-	@	Liberty	-	+14.0	156.0	-	-
06/07/24 2024	Mystics	-	vs.	Fever	-	+4.5	160.5	-	-
06/06/24	Mystics	71	vs.	Sky	79	+3.0	156.0	+8	U 150 -6.0
2024	ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 86.2			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 86.2
06/04/24	Mystics	59	@	Sun	76	+13.0	152.0	+17	U 135 -17.0
2024	ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 71.6			ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 71.6
05/31/24	Mystics	79	@	Liberty	90	+13.0	159.5	+11	O 169 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 112.4 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 112.4 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 80.0
05/29/24	Mystics	67	vs.	Dream	73	+3.0	163.5	+6	U 140 -23.5
2024	ORtg: 84.4 DRtg: 92.0 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 92.0 DRtg: 84.4 Pace: 79.4
05/25/24	Mystics	69	@	Storm	101	+8.5	159.5	+32	O 170 +10.5
2024	ORtg: 90.6 DRtg: 132.6 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 132.6 DRtg: 90.6 Pace: 76.1
05/23/24	Mystics	80	@	Mercury	83	+6.0	161.5	+3	O 163 +1.5
2024	ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 101.4 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 101.4 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 81.8
05/21/24	Mystics	68	@	Sparks	70	+2.5	158.5	+2	U 138 -20.5
2024	ORtg: 87.0 DRtg: 89.5 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 89.5 DRtg: 87.0 Pace: 78.2
05/19/24	Mystics	75	vs.	Storm	84	+4.5	161.0	+9	U 159 -2.0
2024	ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 102.6 Pace: 81.9			ORtg: 102.6 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 81.9
05/17/24	Mystics	77	@	Sun	84	+8.0	157.5	+7	O 161 +3.5
2024	ORtg: 98.4 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 98.4 Pace: 78.2
05/14/24	Mystics	80	vs.	Liberty	85	+11.5	164.0	+5	O 165 +1.0
2024	ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 104.0 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 104.0 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 81.8

Home Games Avg (4 games)		73.3	-	-	80.3	+5.5	161.1	+7.0 -1.5	U 153.5 -7.6
	ORtg: 89.0 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 89.0 Pace: 82.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		72.5	-	-	82.5	+7.3	159.3	+10.0 -2.7	U 155.0 -4.3
	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 104.0 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 104.0 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 79.5

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) to the over away

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over away

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Mystics (Home)

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) against the spread at home

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a home dog

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) to the over

The Mystics are 60% (3-2) to the under at home

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 60% (3-2) to the under as a home dog

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Mystics are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread

The Fever are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread away

The Fever are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 66.7% (8-4) to the over

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) to the over away

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 50% (1-1) to the over as an away fav

The Fever are 41.7% (5-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 66.7% (8-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/18/23	Mystics	83	@	Fever	79	-5.0	162.0	-4	P 162 0.0
2023	ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 101.9 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 101.9 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.5
07/19/23	Mystics	76	vs.	Fever	82	-2.0	158.0	+6	P 158 0.0
2023	ORtg: 96.5 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 96.5 Pace: 78.8
07/07/23	Mystics	96	vs.	Fever	88	-3.0	157.0	-8	O 184 +27.0
2023	ORtg: 129.0 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 129.0 Pace: 74.4
06/13/23	Mystics	66	@	Fever	87	-4.5	157.0	+21	U 153 -4.0
2023	ORtg: 86.6 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 86.6 Pace: 76.2

Mystics as Home (2 games)		86.0	-	-	85.0	-2.5	157.5	-1.0 -1.5	O 171.0 +13.5
	ORtg: 112.7 DRtg: 111.2 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 111.2 DRtg: 112.7 Pace: 76.6

All Games Avg (4 games)		80.3	-	-	84.0	-3.6	158.5	+3.8 -7.4	O 164.3 +5.8
	ORtg: 104.8 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 104.8 Pace: 76.7

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Mystics (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Fever (2x)
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Over
Total Summary	Over
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| Over

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 85 – 83 Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Washington Mystics", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report WASNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Mystics (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 85 – 83
Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics