WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 71
Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever

Sky: 3-3 (50.0%) | Market Rating: -2.41

Fever: 1-8 (11.1%) | Market Rating: -2.16 | Home Court: +1.3 pts

Line: +1.5

Total: 167.5

Open: +3.5

Open: 164.5

Team totals: Sky 83.5 · Fever 83.5

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Games
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Injury Report CHINo report INDNo report

Notes

Sky

Baller System(s)

Back team w/ more rest and less road games in previous 5 games

Fever

Baller System(s)

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Sky

61.88% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/06/24 2024	Sky	-	@	Mystics	-	-3.0	156.0	-	-
06/04/24 2024	Sky	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+8.0	165.5	-	-
06/01/24 2024	Sky	-	@	Fever	-	-1.5	167.5	-	-
05/30/24	Sky	83	vs.	Sparks	73	-4.5	160.0	-10	U 156 -4.0
2024	ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 80.2
05/28/24	Sky	68	vs.	Storm	77	+2.0	165.0	+9	U 145 -20.0
2024	ORtg: 83.5 DRtg: 94.6 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 94.6 DRtg: 83.5 Pace: 81.4
05/25/24	Sky	82	vs.	Sun	86	+5.0	160.5	+4	O 168 +7.5
2024	ORtg: 115.9 DRtg: 121.6 Pace: 70.7			ORtg: 121.6 DRtg: 115.9 Pace: 70.7
05/23/24	Sky	90	@	Liberty	81	+15.5	165.0	-9	O 171 +6.0
2024	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 100.6 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 100.6 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 80.5
05/18/24	Sky	83	@	Wings	74	+5.0	164.0	-9	U 157 -7.0
2024	ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 88.4 Pace: 83.7			ORtg: 88.4 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 83.7
05/15/24	Sky	79	@	Wings	87	+7.5	162.0	+8	O 166 +4.0
2024	ORtg: 98.9 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 98.9 Pace: 79.9
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/17/23	Sky	70	@	Aces	92	+18.0	170.5	+22	U 162 -8.5
2023	ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 119.3 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 119.3 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 77.1
09/13/23	Sky	59	@	Aces	87	+16.5	172.0	+28	U 146 -26.0
2023	ORtg: 74.0 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 74.0 Pace: 79.7
09/10/23	Sky	102	@	Sun	91 OT	+9.5	159.0	-11	O 193 +34.0
2023	ORtg: 115.8 DRtg: 103.4 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 103.4 DRtg: 115.8 Pace: 79.7
09/08/23	Sky	92	vs.	Lynx	87	-4.0	165.0	-5	O 179 +14.0
2023	ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 106.0 Pace: 82.1			ORtg: 106.0 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 82.1

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		84.0	-	-	80.7	+9.3	163.7	-3.3 +12.7	O 164.7 +1.0
	ORtg: 103.3 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 103.3 Pace: 81.4

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		80.8	-	-	79.7	+5.1	162.8	-1.2 +6.3	U 160.5 -2.3
	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 79.4

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/07/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Mystics	-	-4.5	160.5	-	-
06/02/24 2024	Fever	-	@	Liberty	-	+14.5	169.0	-	-
06/01/24 2024	Fever	-	vs.	Sky	-	+1.5	167.5	-	-
05/30/24	Fever	88	vs.	Storm	103	+5.5	166.5	+15	O 191 +24.5
2024	ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 81.6
05/28/24	Fever	82	vs.	Sparks	88	-5.5	164.5	+6	O 170 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 80.2
05/25/24	Fever	80	@	Aces	99	+16.0	174.5	+19	O 179 +4.5
2024	ORtg: 99.1 DRtg: 122.6 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 122.6 DRtg: 99.1 Pace: 80.7
05/24/24	Fever	78	@	Sparks	73	-1.5	165.0	-5	U 151 -14.0
2024	ORtg: 96.4 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 96.4 Pace: 80.9
05/22/24	Fever	83	@	Storm	85	+5.5	165.5	+2	O 168 +2.5
2024	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 75.1
05/20/24	Fever	84	vs.	Sun	88	+5.5	163.5	+4	O 172 +8.5
2024	ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 75.2
05/18/24	Fever	80	@	Liberty	91	+14.0	169.0	+11	O 171 +2.0
2024	ORtg: 95.9 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 83.4			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 95.9 Pace: 83.4
05/16/24	Fever	66	vs.	Liberty	102	+8.0	170.0	+36	U 168 -2.0
2024	ORtg: 86.6 DRtg: 133.9 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 133.9 DRtg: 86.6 Pace: 76.2
05/14/24	Fever	71	@	Sun	92	+6.5	166.5	+21	U 163 -3.5
2024	ORtg: 88.6 DRtg: 114.8 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 114.8 DRtg: 88.6 Pace: 80.1
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/10/23	Fever	87	vs.	Lynx	72	+2.5	164.5	-15	U 159 -5.5
2023	ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 91.5 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 91.5 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 78.7

Home Games Avg (4 games this season)		80.0	-	-	95.3	+3.4	166.1	+15.3 -11.9	O 175.3 +9.1
	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 121.7 Pace: 78.3			ORtg: 121.7 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 78.3

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		79.1	-	-	91.2	+6.0	167.2	+12.1 -6.1	O 170.3 +3.1
	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.2 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 115.2 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 79.3

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

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Fever (Home)

The Fever are 50% (5-5) against the spread

The Fever are 40% (2-3) against the spread at home

The Fever are 50% (4-4) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Fever are 60% (6-4) to the over

The Fever are 60% (3-2) to the over at home

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 50% (2-2) to the over as a home dog

The Fever are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fever are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Fever are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Sky (Away)

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread

The Sky are 50% (2-2) against the spread away

The Sky are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a fav

The Sky are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) to the under

The Sky are 50% (2-2) to the over away

The Sky are 100% (2-0) to the under as a fav

The Sky are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away fav

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sky are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Sky are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Sky are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sky are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Sky are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/05/23	Fever	69	vs.	Sky	96	-1.0	164.5	+27	O 165 +0.5
2023	ORtg: 85.5 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 85.5 Pace: 80.7
07/02/23	Fever	87	vs.	Sky	89	-3.0	159.5	+2	O 176 +16.5
2023	ORtg: 110.1 DRtg: 112.7 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 112.7 DRtg: 110.1 Pace: 79.0
06/15/23	Fever	92	@	Sky	90	-1.5	157.0	-2	O 182 +25.0
2023	ORtg: 127.1 DRtg: 124.4 Pace: 72.4			ORtg: 124.4 DRtg: 127.1 Pace: 72.4
06/06/23	Fever	103	@	Sky	108 OT	+5.0	157.0	+5	O 211 +54.0
2023	ORtg: 123.1 DRtg: 129.0 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 129.0 DRtg: 123.1 Pace: 75.8

Fever as Home (2 games)		78.0	-	-	92.5	-2.0	162.0	+14.5 -16.5	O 170.5 +8.5
	ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 115.8 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 115.8 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 79.8

All Games Avg (4 games)		87.8	-	-	95.8	-0.1	159.5	+8.0 -8.1	O 183.5 +24.0
	ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 77.0

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Sky (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Sky (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Sky (2x)
Cover Summary	Sky
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Sky \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 71 Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Chicago Sky", home_team: "Indiana Fever", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report CHINo report INDNo report

Notes

Sky

Baller System(s)

Fever

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Fever (Home)

Sky (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 70 – 71
Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever