NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sat, 1/13, Final: 7 – 26
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

Dolphins: 11-6 (64.7%) - AFC East

Chiefs: 11-6 (64.7%) - AFC West

Line: -4.5

Total: 43.5

Open: -4.5

Open: 43.5

Team totals: Dolphins 19.5 · Chiefs 24.5

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Injury Report MIANo report KCNo report

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Dolphins Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/12/24 2024	Dolphins	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	49.0	-	-
09/08/24 2024	Dolphins	-	vs.	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	50.0	-	-
01/13/24 2023	Dolphins	-	@	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	43.5	-	-
01/07/24 2023	Dolphins	14	vs.	Bills	21	281	108	173	2	0	+2.5	48.0	+7	U 35 -13.0
12/31/23 2023	Dolphins	19	@	Ravens	56	391	154	237	0	1	+3.0	46.0	+37	O 75 +29.0
12/24/23 2023	Dolphins	22	vs.	Cowboys	20	384	91	293	0	1	-1.5	49.0	-2	U 42 -7.0
12/17/23 2023	Dolphins	30	vs.	Jets	0	305	77	228	2	0	-7.0	35.5	-30	U 30 -5.5
12/11/23 2023	Dolphins	27	vs.	Titans	28	398	158	240	1	2	-13.5	45.0	+1	O 55 +10.0
12/03/23 2023	Dolphins	45	@	Commanders	15	406	123	283	1	0	-8.5	50.0	-30	O 60 +10.0
11/24/23 2023	Dolphins	34	@	Jets	13	410	167	243	2	2	-9.5	40.0	-21	O 47 +7.0
11/19/23 2023	Dolphins	20	vs.	Raiders	13	424	99	325	3	2	-13.5	44.5	-7	U 33 -11.5
11/05/23 2023	Dolphins	14	vs.	Chiefs	21	310	117	193	0	3	0.0	51.5	+7	U 35 -16.5
10/29/23 2023	Dolphins	31	vs.	Patriots	17	402	78	324	1	1	-7.5	47.0	-14	O 48 +1.0

Away Games Avg (3 games)		32.7	-	-	28.0	402	148	254	1.0	1.0	-5.0	45.3	-4.7 -0.3	O 60.7 +15.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		25.6	-	-	20.4	371	117	254	1.2	1.2	-5.6	45.7	-5.2 -0.4	O 46.0 +0.4

Chiefs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/28/24 2023	Chiefs	-	@	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	44.0	-	-
01/21/24 2023	Chiefs	-	@	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	45.5	-	-
01/13/24 2023	Chiefs	-	vs.	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	43.5	-	-
01/07/24 2023	Chiefs	13	@	Chargers	12	277	123	154	0	1	+3.0	35.5	-1	U 25 -10.5
12/31/23 2023	Chiefs	25	vs.	Bengals	17	377	132	245	0	1	-7.0	45.5	-8	U 42 -3.5
12/25/23 2023	Chiefs	14	vs.	Raiders	20	331	85	246	0	2	-11.5	40.0	+6	U 34 -6.0
12/17/23 2023	Chiefs	27	@	Patriots	17	352	43	309	1	2	-10.0	39.5	-10	O 44 +4.5
12/10/23 2023	Chiefs	17	vs.	Bills	20	353	82	271	1	1	-2.0	49.5	+3	U 37 -12.5
12/03/23 2023	Chiefs	19	@	Packers	27	358	148	210	0	0	-6.0	44.0	+8	O 46 +2.0
11/26/23 2023	Chiefs	31	@	Raiders	17	367	69	298	0	0	-9.0	43.0	-14	O 48 +5.0
11/20/23 2023	Chiefs	17	vs.	Eagles	21	345	168	177	1	1	-2.5	46.5	+4	U 38 -8.5
11/05/23 2023	Chiefs	21	vs.	Dolphins	14	278	93	185	0	1	0.0	51.5	-7	U 35 -16.5
10/29/23 2023	Chiefs	9	@	Broncos	24	302	62	240	0	3	-7.0	45.5	+15	U 33 -12.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		18.3	-	-	19.5	352	117	235	0.5	1.3	-5.8	45.4	+1.3 -7.0	U 37.8 -7.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		19.3	-	-	18.9	334	101	234	0.3	1.2	-5.2	44.1	-0.4 -4.8	U 38.2 -5.9

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Chiefs are 85.7% (6-1-1) to the under at home

The Chiefs are 85.7% (6-1-1) to the under as a home fav

The Chiefs are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Chiefs are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Dolphins are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Dolphins are 71.4% (5-2) to the over away

The Dolphins are 75% (3-1) to the over as an away dog

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Chiefs (Home)

The Chiefs are 56.3% (9-7-1) against the spread

The Chiefs are 50% (4-4) against the spread at home

The Chiefs are 50% (7-7-1) against the spread as a fav

The Chiefs are 50% (4-4) against the spread as a home fav

The Chiefs are 68.8% (11-5-1) to the under

The Chiefs are 85.7% (6-1-1) to the under at home

The Chiefs are 64.3% (9-5-1) to the under as a fav

The Chiefs are 85.7% (6-1-1) to the under as a home fav

The Chiefs are 50% (2-2-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Chiefs are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Chiefs are 33.3% (1-2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Chiefs are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Chiefs are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Chiefs are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Chiefs are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Chiefs are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Dolphins (Away)

The Dolphins are 58.8% (10-7) against the spread

The Dolphins are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread away

The Dolphins are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Dolphins are 52.9% (9-8) to the over

The Dolphins are 71.4% (5-2) to the over away

The Dolphins are 60% (3-2) to the over as a dog

The Dolphins are 75% (3-1) to the over as an away dog

The Dolphins are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dolphins are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Dolphins are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Dolphins are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Dolphins are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Dolphins are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/05/23 2023	Chiefs	21	vs.	Dolphins	14	278	93	185	0	1	0.0	51.5	-7	U 35 -16.5
12/13/20 2020	Chiefs	33	@	Dolphins	27	396	80	316	3	1	-7.0	51.5	-6	O 60 +8.5

All Games Avg (2 games)		27.0	-	-	20.5	337	87	251	1.5	1.0	-3.5	51.5	-6.5 +3.0	U 47.5 -4.0