NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 1/7, Final: 21 – 14
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Bills: 10-6 (62.5%) - AFC East

Dolphins: 11-5 (68.8%) - AFC East

Line: +2.5

Total: 48.0

Open: -1.5

Open: 48.5

Team totals: Bills 26.5 · Dolphins 23.5

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Bills Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/21/24 2023	Bills	-	vs.	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	45.5	-	-
01/15/24 2023	Bills	-	vs.	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-10.0	40.0	-	-
01/07/24 2023	Bills	-	@	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	48.0	-	-
12/31/23 2023	Bills	27	vs.	Patriots	21	296	127	169	3	2	-15.5	40.0	-6	O 48 +8.0
12/23/23 2023	Bills	24	@	Chargers	22	342	105	237	0	3	-13.0	44.5	-2	O 46 +1.5
12/17/23 2023	Bills	31	vs.	Cowboys	10	360	266	94	1	1	-2.5	49.0	-21	U 41 -8.0
12/10/23 2023	Bills	20	@	Chiefs	17	351	118	233	1	1	+2.0	49.5	-3	U 37 -12.5
11/26/23 2023	Bills	34	@	Eagles	37 OT	512	173	339	1	1	+2.5	48.5	+3	O 71 +22.5
11/19/23 2023	Bills	32	vs.	Jets	6	405	130	275	2	1	-8.5	39.5	-26	U 38 -1.5
11/13/23 2023	Bills	22	vs.	Broncos	24	369	192	177	0	3	-7.5	47.5	+2	U 46 -1.5
11/05/23 2023	Bills	18	@	Bengals	24	326	68	258	0	1	+1.5	51.0	+6	U 42 -9.0
10/26/23 2023	Bills	24	vs.	Buccaneers	18	439	115	324	0	0	-10.0	43.0	-6	U 42 -1.0
10/22/23 2023	Bills	25	@	Patriots	29	346	81	265	0	1	-7.5	41.5	+4	O 54 +12.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		24.2	-	-	25.8	375	109	266	0.4	1.4	-2.9	47.0	+1.6 -4.5	O 50.0 +3.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		25.7	-	-	20.8	375	138	237	0.8	1.4	-5.9	45.4	-4.9 -1.0	O 46.5 +1.1

Dolphins Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/08/24 2024	Dolphins	-	vs.	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	50.0	-	-
01/13/24 2023	Dolphins	-	@	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	43.5	-	-
01/07/24 2023	Dolphins	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	48.0	-	-
12/31/23 2023	Dolphins	19	@	Ravens	56	391	154	237	0	1	+3.0	46.0	+37	O 75 +29.0
12/24/23 2023	Dolphins	22	vs.	Cowboys	20	384	91	293	0	1	-1.5	49.0	-2	U 42 -7.0
12/17/23 2023	Dolphins	30	vs.	Jets	0	305	77	228	2	0	-7.0	35.5	-30	U 30 -5.5
12/11/23 2023	Dolphins	27	vs.	Titans	28	398	158	240	1	2	-13.5	45.0	+1	O 55 +10.0
12/03/23 2023	Dolphins	45	@	Commanders	15	406	123	283	1	0	-8.5	50.0	-30	O 60 +10.0
11/24/23 2023	Dolphins	34	@	Jets	13	410	167	243	2	2	-9.5	40.0	-21	O 47 +7.0
11/19/23 2023	Dolphins	20	vs.	Raiders	13	424	99	325	3	2	-13.5	44.5	-7	U 33 -11.5
11/05/23 2023	Dolphins	14	vs.	Chiefs	21	310	117	193	0	3	0.0	51.5	+7	U 35 -16.5
10/29/23 2023	Dolphins	31	vs.	Patriots	17	402	78	324	1	1	-7.5	47.0	-14	O 48 +1.0
10/22/23 2023	Dolphins	17	@	Eagles	31	261	45	216	1	1	+3.0	52.5	+14	U 48 -4.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		26.0	-	-	15.6	383	101	282	1.4	1.2	-8.6	44.2	-10.4 +1.8	U 41.6 -2.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		25.9	-	-	21.4	369	111	258	1.1	1.3	-5.5	46.1	-4.5 -1.0	O 47.3 +1.2

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Dolphins are 75% (6-2) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Bills are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread away

The Bills are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an away fav

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Dolphins (Home)

The Dolphins are 62.5% (10-6) against the spread

The Dolphins are 75% (6-2) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 56.3% (9-7) to the over

The Dolphins are 50% (4-4) to the over at home

The Dolphins are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Dolphins are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dolphins are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dolphins are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Dolphins are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Dolphins are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

Bills (Away)

The Bills are 37.5% (6-10) against the spread

The Bills are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread away

The Bills are 38.5% (5-8) against the spread as a fav

The Bills are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an away fav

The Bills are 62.5% (10-6) to the under

The Bills are 57.1% (4-3) to the under away

The Bills are 61.5% (8-5) to the under as a fav

The Bills are 50% (2-2) to the over as an away fav

The Bills are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bills are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Bills are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Bills are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Bills are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Bills are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Bills are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Bills are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/01/23 2023	Dolphins	20	@	Bills	48	424	104	320	1	0	+3.0	53.0	+28	O 68 +15.0
01/15/23 2022	Dolphins	31	@	Bills	34	459	107	352	2	4	+13.5	44.0	+3	O 65 +21.0
12/17/22 2022	Dolphins	29	@	Bills	32	454	150	304	0	2	+7.0	44.5	+3	O 61 +16.5
09/25/22 2022	Dolphins	21	vs.	Bills	19	227	41	186	0	0	+4.5	54.0	-2	U 40 -14.0
10/31/21 2021	Dolphins	11	@	Bills	26	351	102	249	1	1	+14.0	48.5	+15	U 37 -11.5
09/19/21 2021	Dolphins	0	vs.	Bills	35	253	71	182	1	3	+3.5	48.0	+35	U 35 -13.0
01/03/21 2020	Dolphins	26	@	Bills	56	466	78	388	3	0	-3.0	42.5	+30	O 82 +39.5
09/20/20 2020	Dolphins	28	vs.	Bills	31	427	99	328	0	1	+5.5	42.5	+3	O 59 +16.5

Dolphins as Home (3 games)		16.3	-	-	28.3	302	70	232	0.3	1.3	+4.5	48.2	+12.0 -7.5	U 44.7 -3.5

All Games Avg (8 games)		20.8	-	-	35.1	383	94	289	1.0	1.4	+6.0	47.1	+14.4 -8.4	O 55.9 +8.8