NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/26, Final: 31 – 17
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Chiefs: 7-3 (70.0%) - AFC West

Raiders: 5-6 (45.5%) - AFC West

Line: +9.0

Total: 43.0

Open: +9.5

Open: 45

Team totals: Chiefs 26.5 · Raiders 16.5

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Chiefs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/10/23 2023	Chiefs	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.0	49.5	-	-
12/03/23 2023	Chiefs	-	@	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	44.0	-	-
11/26/23 2023	Chiefs	-	@	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-9.0	43.0	-	-
11/20/23 2023	Chiefs	17	vs.	Eagles	21	345	168	177	1	1	-2.5	46.5	+4	U 38 -8.5
11/05/23 2023	Chiefs	21	vs.	Dolphins	14	278	93	185	0	1	0.0	51.5	-7	U 35 -16.5
10/29/23 2023	Chiefs	9	@	Broncos	24	302	62	240	0	3	-7.0	45.5	+15	U 33 -12.5
10/22/23 2023	Chiefs	31	vs.	Chargers	17	492	68	424	2	1	-5.5	48.0	-14	P 48 0.0
10/12/23 2023	Chiefs	19	vs.	Broncos	8	402	96	306	2	2	-10.5	47.5	-11	U 27 -20.5
10/08/23 2023	Chiefs	27	@	Vikings	20	348	67	281	0	0	-3.5	52.5	-7	U 47 -5.5
10/01/23 2023	Chiefs	23	@	Jets	20	407	204	203	0	1	-8.5	41.5	-3	O 43 +1.5
09/24/23 2023	Chiefs	41	vs.	Bears	10	456	153	303	1	0	-12.5	48.5	-31	O 51 +2.5
09/17/23 2023	Chiefs	17	@	Jaguars	9	406	101	305	0	4	-3.5	51.0	-8	U 26 -25.0
09/07/23 2023	Chiefs	20	vs.	Lions	21	316	90	226	0	0	-4.0	53.0	+1	U 41 -12.0

Away Games Avg (4 games)		19.0	-	-	18.3	366	109	257	0.0	2.0	-5.6	47.6	-0.8 -4.9	U 37.3 -10.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		22.5	-	-	16.4	375	110	265	0.6	1.3	-5.8	48.6	-6.1 +0.4	U 38.9 -9.7

Raiders Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/14/23 2023	Raiders	-	vs.	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	36.5	-	-
12/10/23 2023	Raiders	-	vs.	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	40.5	-	-
11/26/23 2023	Raiders	-	vs.	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+9.0	43.0	-	-
11/19/23 2023	Raiders	13	@	Dolphins	20	307	36	271	1	0	+13.5	44.5	+7	U 33 -11.5
11/12/23 2023	Raiders	16	vs.	Jets	12	301	148	153	1	3	0.0	36.0	-4	U 28 -8.0
11/05/23 2023	Raiders	30	vs.	Giants	6	334	125	209	2	0	-1.5	37.5	-24	U 36 -1.5
10/30/23 2023	Raiders	14	@	Lions	26	206	80	126	1	1	+7.5	46.5	+12	U 40 -6.5
10/22/23 2023	Raiders	12	@	Bears	30	243	39	204	0	0	-2.5	38.0	+18	O 42 +4.0
10/15/23 2023	Raiders	21	vs.	Patriots	17	348	84	264	1	0	-3.0	41.5	-4	U 38 -3.5
10/09/23 2023	Raiders	17	vs.	Packers	13	304	96	208	3	0	-1.5	45.0	-4	U 30 -15.0
10/01/23 2023	Raiders	17	@	Chargers	24	314	76	238	1	3	+6.0	49.0	+7	U 41 -8.0
09/24/23 2023	Raiders	18	vs.	Steelers	23	393	69	324	0	1	-3.0	43.5	+5	U 41 -2.5
09/17/23 2023	Raiders	10	@	Bills	38	240	55	185	0	1	+7.5	47.0	+28	O 48 +1.0

Home Games Avg (5 games)		20.4	-	-	14.2	336	104	232	1.4	0.8	-1.8	40.7	-6.2 +4.4	U 34.6 -6.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		16.8	-	-	20.9	299	81	218	1.0	0.9	+2.3	42.9	+4.1 -1.8	U 37.7 -5.2

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Raiders are 80% (4-1) against the spread at home

The Raiders are 81.8% (9-2) to the under

The Raiders are 100% (5-0) to the under at home

The Raiders are 80% (4-1) to the under as a dog

The Raiders are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Chiefs are 77.8% (7-2-1) to the under

The Chiefs are 75% (3-1) to the under away

The Chiefs are 75% (6-2-1) to the under as a fav

The Chiefs are 75% (3-1) to the under as an away fav

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Raiders (Home)

The Raiders are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread

The Raiders are 80% (4-1) against the spread at home

The Raiders are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a dog

The Raiders are 81.8% (9-2) to the under

The Raiders are 100% (5-0) to the under at home

The Raiders are 80% (4-1) to the under as a dog

The Raiders are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Raiders are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Raiders are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Raiders are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Raiders are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Raiders are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

Chiefs (Away)

The Chiefs are 60% (6-4) against the spread

The Chiefs are 50% (2-2) against the spread away

The Chiefs are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread as a fav

The Chiefs are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Chiefs are 77.8% (7-2-1) to the under

The Chiefs are 75% (3-1) to the under away

The Chiefs are 75% (6-2-1) to the under as a fav

The Chiefs are 75% (3-1) to the under as an away fav

The Chiefs are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Chiefs are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Chiefs are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Chiefs are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Chiefs are 100% (3-0-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Chiefs are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Chiefs are 100% (2-0-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Chiefs are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/07/23 2022	Raiders	13	vs.	Chiefs	31	318	99	219	0	2	+8.5	52.0	+18	U 44 -8.0
10/10/22 2022	Raiders	29	@	Chiefs	30	395	103	292	0	0	+7.0	51.5	+1	O 59 +7.5
12/12/21 2021	Raiders	9	@	Chiefs	48	390	132	258	1	1	+9.5	48.0	+39	O 57 +9.0
11/14/21 2021	Raiders	14	vs.	Chiefs	41	311	50	261	0	1	+3.0	52.0	+27	O 55 +3.0
11/22/20 2020	Raiders	31	vs.	Chiefs	35	364	89	275	1	0	+7.5	56.5	+4	O 66 +9.5
10/11/20 2020	Raiders	40	@	Chiefs	32	420	80	340	1	0	+10.0	54.5	-8	O 72 +17.5

Raiders as Home (3 games)		19.3	-	-	35.7	331	79	252	0.3	1.0	+6.3	53.5	+16.3 -10.0	O 55.0 +1.5

All Games Avg (6 games)		22.7	-	-	36.2	366	92	274	0.5	0.7	+7.6	52.4	+13.5 -5.9	O 58.8 +6.4