NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/26, Final: 15 – 24
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Saints: 5-5 (50.0%) - NFC South

Falcons: 4-6 (40.0%) - NFC South

Line: +2.0

Total: 42.0

Open: -0.5

Open: 41

Team totals: Saints 21.5 · Falcons 20.5

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Saints Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/10/23 2023	Saints	-	vs.	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.5	39.5	-	-
12/03/23 2023	Saints	-	vs.	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	47.5	-	-
11/26/23 2023	Saints	-	@	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.0	42.0	-	-
11/12/23 2023	Saints	19	@	Vikings	27	297	65	232	0	1	-3.0	41.0	+8	O 46 +5.0
11/05/23 2023	Saints	24	vs.	Bears	17	301	87	214	3	0	-9.0	42.0	-7	U 41 -1.0
10/29/23 2023	Saints	38	@	Colts	27	515	161	354	1	1	-2.0	43.5	-11	O 65 +21.5
10/19/23 2023	Saints	24	vs.	Jaguars	31	413	112	301	0	1	-2.5	41.5	+7	O 55 +13.5
10/15/23 2023	Saints	13	@	Texans	20	446	89	357	1	1	-2.0	42.5	+7	U 33 -9.5
10/08/23 2023	Saints	34	@	Patriots	0	319	136	183	2	0	+2.0	38.5	-34	U 34 -4.5
10/01/23 2023	Saints	9	vs.	Buccaneers	26	210	70	140	1	2	-4.5	41.0	+17	U 35 -6.0
09/24/23 2023	Saints	17	@	Packers	18	281	77	204	1	0	-1.5	41.5	+1	U 35 -6.5
09/18/23 2023	Saints	20	@	Panthers	17	370	134	236	0	0	-3.0	39.5	-3	U 37 -2.5
09/10/23 2023	Saints	16	vs.	Titans	15	374	69	305	3	2	-3.0	41.0	-1	U 31 -10.0

Away Games Avg (6 games)		23.5	-	-	18.2	371	110	261	0.8	0.5	-1.6	41.1	-5.3 +3.8	O 41.7 +0.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		21.4	-	-	19.8	353	100	253	1.2	0.8	-2.9	41.2	-1.6 -1.3	P 41.2 0.0

Falcons Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/10/23 2023	Falcons	-	vs.	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	41.5	-	-
12/03/23 2023	Falcons	-	@	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.0	33.5	-	-
11/26/23 2023	Falcons	-	vs.	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.0	42.0	-	-
11/12/23 2023	Falcons	23	@	Cardinals	25	278	184	94	1	0	-2.0	43.5	+2	O 48 +4.5
11/05/23 2023	Falcons	28	vs.	Vikings	31	378	110	268	0	1	-3.5	38.0	+3	O 59 +21.0
10/29/23 2023	Falcons	23	@	Titans	28	386	140	246	0	1	-2.5	35.5	+5	O 51 +15.5
10/22/23 2023	Falcons	16	@	Buccaneers	13	406	156	250	1	3	+3.0	37.5	-3	U 29 -8.5
10/15/23 2023	Falcons	16	vs.	Commanders	24	413	106	307	0	0	-1.5	42.0	+8	U 40 -2.0
10/08/23 2023	Falcons	21	vs.	Texans	19	447	96	351	0	3	-2.5	42.0	-2	U 40 -2.0
10/01/23 2023	Falcons	7	vs.	Jaguars	23	318	127	191	0	1	+3.5	42.0	+16	U 30 -12.0
09/24/23 2023	Falcons	6	@	Lions	20	245	44	201	1	1	+3.5	47.5	+14	U 26 -21.5
09/17/23 2023	Falcons	25	vs.	Packers	24	448	211	237	0	0	-3.0	40.0	-1	O 49 +9.0
09/10/23 2023	Falcons	24	vs.	Panthers	10	245	130	115	2	1	-3.5	40.5	-14	U 34 -6.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		22.8	-	-	21.6	386	131	256	0.4	1.0	-2.8	40.5	-1.2 -1.6	O 44.4 +3.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		18.9	-	-	21.7	356	130	226	0.5	1.1	-0.9	40.9	+2.8 -3.7	U 40.6 -0.3

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Falcons are 20% (2-8) against the spread

The Falcons are 20% (1-4) against the spread at home

The Falcons are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Falcons are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Saints are 22.2% (2-7-1) against the spread

The Saints are 12.5% (1-7-1) against the spread as a fav

The Saints are 25% (1-3-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Saints are 70% (7-3) to the under

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Falcons (Home)

The Falcons are 20% (2-8) against the spread

The Falcons are 20% (1-4) against the spread at home

The Falcons are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a dog

The Falcons are 60% (6-4) to the under

The Falcons are 60% (3-2) to the under at home

The Falcons are 100% (3-0) to the under as a dog

The Falcons are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Falcons are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Falcons are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Falcons are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Falcons are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

Saints (Away)

The Saints are 22.2% (2-7-1) against the spread

The Saints are 40% (2-3-1) against the spread away

The Saints are 12.5% (1-7-1) against the spread as a fav

The Saints are 25% (1-3-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Saints are 70% (7-3) to the under

The Saints are 66.7% (4-2) to the under away

The Saints are 66.7% (6-3) to the under as a fav

The Saints are 60% (3-2) to the under as an away fav

The Saints are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Saints are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Saints are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Saints are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Saints are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Saints are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Saints are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Saints are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/18/22 2022	Falcons	18	@	Saints	21	365	134	231	0	2	+5.0	43.5	+3	U 39 -4.5
09/11/22 2022	Falcons	26	vs.	Saints	27	416	201	215	0	3	+5.5	43.5	+1	O 53 +9.5
01/09/22 2021	Falcons	20	vs.	Saints	30	278	62	216	0	3	+4.5	40.0	+10	O 50 +10.0
11/07/21 2021	Falcons	27	@	Saints	25	391	109	282	0	1	+6.0	41.5	-2	O 52 +10.5
12/06/20 2020	Falcons	16	vs.	Saints	21	343	70	273	0	1	+2.5	45.5	+5	U 37 -8.5
11/22/20 2020	Falcons	9	@	Saints	24	399	166	233	2	1	+3.5	49.5	+15	U 33 -16.5

Falcons as Home (3 games)		20.7	-	-	26.0	346	111	235	0.0	2.3	+4.2	43.0	+5.3 -1.2	O 46.7 +3.7

All Games Avg (6 games)		19.3	-	-	24.7	365	124	242	0.3	1.8	+4.5	43.9	+5.3 -0.8	O 44.0 +0.1