NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/5, Final: 18 – 24
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

Bills: 5-3 (62.5%) - AFC East

Bengals: 4-3 (57.1%) - AFC North

Line: -1.5

Total: 51.0

Open: +1

Open: 46

Team totals: Bills 24.5 · Bengals 26.5

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Bills Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/19/23 2023	Bills	-	vs.	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.5	39.5	-	-
11/13/23 2023	Bills	-	vs.	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	47.5	-	-
11/05/23 2023	Bills	-	@	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	51.0	-	-
10/26/23 2023	Bills	24	vs.	Buccaneers	18	439	115	324	0	0	-10.0	43.0	-6	U 42 -1.0
10/22/23 2023	Bills	25	@	Patriots	29	346	81	265	0	1	-7.5	41.5	+4	O 54 +12.5
10/15/23 2023	Bills	14	vs.	Giants	9	297	128	169	0	1	-15.0	43.5	-5	U 23 -20.5
10/08/23 2023	Bills	20	vs.	Jaguars	25	388	29	359	0	2	-5.0	48.5	+5	U 45 -3.5
10/01/23 2023	Bills	48	vs.	Dolphins	20	424	104	320	1	0	-3.0	53.0	-28	O 68 +15.0
09/24/23 2023	Bills	37	@	Commanders	3	386	168	218	4	0	-5.0	44.5	-34	U 40 -4.5
09/17/23 2023	Bills	38	vs.	Raiders	10	457	183	274	2	0	-7.5	47.0	-28	O 48 +1.0
09/11/23 2023	Bills	16	@	Jets	22 OT	333	97	236	1	2	-2.5	44.5	+6	U 38 -6.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/22/23 2022	Bills	10	vs.	Bengals	27	328	64	264	0	0	-5.5	48.5	+17	U 37 -11.5
01/15/23 2022	Bills	34	vs.	Dolphins	31	459	107	352	2	4	-13.5	44.0	-3	O 65 +21.0

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		26.0	-	-	18.0	355	115	240	1.7	1.0	-5.0	43.5	-8.0 +3.0	O 44.0 +0.5

All Games Avg (8 games this season)		27.8	-	-	17.0	384	113	271	1.0	0.8	-6.9	45.7	-10.8 +3.8	U 44.8 -0.9

Bengals Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/16/23 2023	Bengals	-	@	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	46.0	-	-
11/12/23 2023	Bengals	-	vs.	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5.5	46.0	-	-
11/05/23 2023	Bengals	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	51.0	-	-
10/29/23 2023	Bengals	31	@	49ers	17	417	134	283	2	2	+4.5	44.5	-14	O 48 +3.5
10/15/23 2023	Bengals	17	vs.	Seahawks	13	231	46	185	2	0	-3.0	45.5	-4	U 30 -15.5
10/08/23 2023	Bengals	34	@	Cardinals	20	410	93	317	2	1	-3.0	45.5	-14	O 54 +8.5
10/01/23 2023	Bengals	3	@	Titans	27	237	72	165	1	2	-2.5	41.5	+24	U 30 -11.5
09/25/23 2023	Bengals	19	vs.	Rams	16	326	67	259	2	0	-3.0	46.0	-3	U 35 -11.0
09/17/23 2023	Bengals	24	vs.	Ravens	27	288	66	222	0	0	-3.5	45.5	+3	O 51 +5.5
09/10/23 2023	Bengals	3	@	Browns	24	157	75	82	1	0	-1.0	46.5	+21	U 27 -19.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/29/23 2022	Bengals	20	@	Chiefs	23	341	71	270	0	0	+1.5	48.5	+3	U 43 -5.5
01/22/23 2022	Bengals	27	@	Bills	10	414	172	242	1	0	+5.5	48.5	-17	U 37 -11.5
01/15/23 2022	Bengals	24	vs.	Ravens	17	260	51	209	1	2	-7.5	40.0	-7	O 41 +1.0

Home Games Avg (3 games this season)		20.0	-	-	18.7	282	60	222	1.3	0.0	-3.2	45.7	-1.3 -1.8	U 38.7 -7.0

All Games Avg (7 games this season)		18.7	-	-	20.6	295	79	216	1.4	0.7	-1.6	45.0	+1.9 -3.5	U 39.3 -5.7

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Bengals are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bills are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread

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Bengals (Home)

The Bengals are 50% (3-3-1) against the spread

The Bengals are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread at home

The Bengals are 40% (2-3-1) against the spread as a fav

The Bengals are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Bengals are 57.1% (4-3) to the under

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) to the under at home

The Bengals are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a fav

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as a home fav

The Bengals are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bengals are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Bengals are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Bengals are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Bengals are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Bengals are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Bills (Away)

The Bills are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread

The Bills are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread away

The Bills are 62.5% (5-3) to the under

The Bills are 66.7% (2-1) to the under away