NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/22, Final: 16 – 13
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Falcons: 3-3 (50.0%) - NFC South

Buccaneers: 3-2 (60.0%) - NFC South

Line: -3.0

Total: 37.5

Open: -2.5

Open: 40.5

Team totals: Falcons 17.5 · Buccaneers 20.5

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Falcons Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/05/23 2023	Falcons	-	vs.	Vikings	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	38.0	-	-
10/29/23 2023	Falcons	-	@	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	35.5	-	-
10/22/23 2023	Falcons	-	@	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	37.5	-	-
10/15/23 2023	Falcons	16	vs.	Commanders	24	413	106	307	0	0	-1.5	42.0	+8	U 40 -2.0
10/08/23 2023	Falcons	21	vs.	Texans	19	447	96	351	0	3	-2.5	42.0	-2	U 40 -2.0
10/01/23 2023	Falcons	7	vs.	Jaguars	23	318	127	191	0	1	+3.5	42.0	+16	U 30 -12.0
09/24/23 2023	Falcons	6	@	Lions	20	245	44	201	1	1	+3.5	47.5	+14	U 26 -21.5
09/17/23 2023	Falcons	25	vs.	Packers	24	448	211	237	0	0	-3.0	40.0	-1	O 49 +9.0
09/10/23 2023	Falcons	24	vs.	Panthers	10	245	130	115	2	1	-3.5	40.5	-14	U 34 -6.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/08/23 2022	Falcons	30	vs.	Buccaneers	17	398	174	224	0	1	-6.0	40.5	-13	O 47 +6.5
01/01/23 2022	Falcons	20	vs.	Cardinals	19	301	132	169	0	1	-7.0	40.5	-1	U 39 -1.5
12/24/22 2022	Falcons	9	@	Ravens	17	333	115	218	0	2	+6.5	35.5	+8	U 26 -9.5
12/18/22 2022	Falcons	18	@	Saints	21	328	231	97	0	1	+5.0	43.5	+3	U 39 -4.5

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		6.0	-	-	20.0	245	44	201	1.0	1.0	+3.5	47.5	+14.0 -10.5	U 26.0 -21.5

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		16.5	-	-	20.0	353	119	234	0.5	1.0	-0.6	42.3	+3.5 -4.1	U 36.5 -5.8

Buccaneers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/05/23 2023	Buccaneers	-	@	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	39.5	-	-
10/26/23 2023	Buccaneers	-	@	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+10.0	43.0	-	-
10/22/23 2023	Buccaneers	-	vs.	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	37.5	-	-
10/15/23 2023	Buccaneers	6	vs.	Lions	20	252	46	206	0	0	+3.0	43.5	+14	U 26 -17.5
10/01/23 2023	Buccaneers	26	@	Saints	9	360	114	246	1	0	+4.5	41.0	-17	U 35 -6.0
09/25/23 2023	Buccaneers	11	vs.	Eagles	25	187	41	146	2	2	+6.0	44.0	+14	U 36 -8.0
09/17/23 2023	Buccaneers	27	vs.	Bears	17	437	120	317	2	2	-2.5	40.5	-10	O 44 +3.5
09/10/23 2023	Buccaneers	20	@	Vikings	17	246	73	173	1	0	+4.0	45.0	-3	U 37 -8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/16/23 2022	Buccaneers	14	vs.	Cowboys	31	403	52	351	0	2	+3.0	45.5	+17	U 45 -0.5
01/08/23 2022	Buccaneers	17	@	Falcons	30	222	86	136	0	1	+6.0	40.5	+13	O 47 +6.5
01/01/23 2022	Buccaneers	30	vs.	Panthers	24	499	67	432	1	1	-3.5	40.5	-6	O 54 +13.5
12/25/22 2022	Buccaneers	19	@	Cardinals	16 OT	396	115	281	1	0	-7.5	41.5	-3	U 35 -6.5
12/18/22 2022	Buccaneers	23	vs.	Bengals	34	404	92	312	1	3	+3.0	47.5	+11	O 57 +9.5

Home Games Avg (3 games this season)		14.7	-	-	20.7	292	69	223	1.3	1.3	+2.2	42.7	+6.0 -3.8	U 35.3 -7.3

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		18.0	-	-	17.6	296	79	218	1.2	0.8	+3.0	42.8	-0.4 +3.4	U 35.6 -7.2

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) to the under

The Buccaneers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Falcons are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread

The Falcons are 83.3% (5-1) to the under

The Falcons are 0% (0-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Falcons are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

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Buccaneers (Home)

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a fav

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) to the under

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (2-1) to the under at home

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) to the over as a fav

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) to the over as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Falcons (Away)

The Falcons are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) against the spread away

The Falcons are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Falcons are 83.3% (5-1) to the under

The Falcons are 100% (1-0) to the under away

The Falcons are 100% (2-0) to the under as a dog

The Falcons are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Falcons are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Falcons are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog