NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/1, Final: 3 – 38
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys

Patriots: 1-2 (33.3%) - AFC East

Cowboys: 2-1 (66.7%) - NFC East

Line: -6.0

Total: 43.0

Open: -7.5

Open: 42.5

Team totals: Patriots 18.5 · Cowboys 24.5

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Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/15/23 2023	Patriots	-	@	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	41.5	-	-
10/08/23 2023	Patriots	-	vs.	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.0	38.5	-	-
10/01/23 2023	Patriots	-	@	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	43.0	-	-
09/24/23 2023	Patriots	15	@	Jets	10	358	157	201	0	0	-2.5	35.5	-5	U 25 -10.5
09/17/23 2023	Patriots	17	vs.	Dolphins	24	316	88	228	1	1	+2.0	46.5	+7	U 41 -5.5
09/10/23 2023	Patriots	20	vs.	Eagles	25	392	76	316	0	2	+3.5	44.0	+5	O 45 +1.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/08/23 2022	Patriots	23	@	Bills	35	350	107	243	1	1	+13.5	44.0	+12	O 58 +14.0
01/01/23 2022	Patriots	23	vs.	Dolphins	21	280	76	204	2	0	-3.5	42.0	-2	O 44 +2.0
12/24/22 2022	Patriots	18	vs.	Bengals	22	301	61	240	2	4	+3.0	41.5	+4	U 40 -1.5
12/18/22 2022	Patriots	24	@	Raiders	30	318	206	112	1	1	+2.5	45.0	+6	O 54 +9.0
12/12/22 2022	Patriots	27	@	Cardinals	13	338	103	235	1	1	-2.5	44.0	-14	U 40 -4.0
12/01/22 2022	Patriots	10	vs.	Bills	24	255	60	195	0	2	+3.5	44.0	+14	U 34 -10.0
11/24/22 2022	Patriots	26	@	Vikings	33	427	45	382	1	1	+2.5	42.0	+7	O 59 +17.0

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		15.0	-	-	10.0	358	157	201	0.0	0.0	-2.5	35.5	-5.0 +2.5	U 25.0 -10.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		17.3	-	-	19.7	355	107	248	0.3	1.0	+1.0	42.0	+2.3 -1.3	U 37.0 -5.0

Cowboys Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/16/23 2023	Cowboys	-	@	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	49.5	-	-
10/08/23 2023	Cowboys	-	@	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	45.0	-	-
10/01/23 2023	Cowboys	-	vs.	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	43.0	-	-
09/24/23 2023	Cowboys	16	@	Cardinals	28	434	185	249	0	0	-11.0	43.5	+12	O 44 +0.5
09/17/23 2023	Cowboys	30	vs.	Jets	10	389	134	255	3	1	-8.0	38.5	-20	O 40 +1.5
09/10/23 2023	Cowboys	40	@	Giants	0	265	122	143	2	1	-3.5	44.5	-40	U 40 -4.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/22/23 2022	Cowboys	12	@	49ers	19	282	76	206	0	0	+3.5	46.5	+7	U 31 -15.5
01/16/23 2022	Cowboys	31	@	Buccaneers	14	433	128	305	1	0	-3.0	45.5	-17	U 45 -0.5
01/08/23 2022	Cowboys	6	@	Commanders	26	192	64	128	1	2	-7.5	40.5	+20	U 32 -8.5
12/29/22 2022	Cowboys	27	@	Titans	13	369	87	282	1	1	-13.5	40.5	-14	U 40 -0.5
12/24/22 2022	Cowboys	40	vs.	Eagles	34	462	115	347	2	1	-3.5	48.0	-6	O 74 +26.0
12/18/22 2022	Cowboys	34	@	Jaguars	40 OT	410	154	256	1	0	-3.5	48.0	+6	O 74 +26.0
12/11/22 2022	Cowboys	27	vs.	Texans	23	411	127	284	1	2	-17.0	44.5	-4	O 50 +5.5

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		30.0	-	-	10.0	389	134	255	3.0	1.0	-8.0	38.5	-20.0 +12.0	O 40.0 +1.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		28.7	-	-	12.7	363	147	216	1.7	0.7	-7.5	42.2	-16.0 +8.5	U 41.3 -0.8

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Cowboys (Home)

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) against the spread at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as a fav

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) to the over

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) to the over at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as a fav

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) to the over as a home fav

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Cowboys are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Cowboys are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) against the spread away

The Patriots are 0% (0-2) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) to the under

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) to the under away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) to the over as a dog

The Patriots are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Patriots are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/17/21 2021	Cowboys	35	@	Patriots	29 OT	349	120	229	1	1	-3.5	50.5	-6	O 64 +13.5

All Games Avg (1 games)		35.0	-	-	29.0	349	120	229	1.0	1.0	-3.5	50.5	-6.0 +2.5	O 64.0 +13.5