NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Mon, 9/18, Final: 22 – 26
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Browns: 1-0 (100.0%) - AFC North

Steelers: 0-1 (0.0%) - AFC North

Line: +2.5

Total: 38.5

Open: -1

Open: 43

Team totals: Browns 20.5 · Steelers 18.5

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Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

The model doesn't have enough games played yet this season to generate reliable predictions — it typically won't start producing projections until Week 3.

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Browns Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/01/23 2023	Browns	-	vs.	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	42.5	-	-
09/24/23 2023	Browns	-	vs.	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	38.0	-	-
09/18/23 2023	Browns	-	@	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	38.5	-	-
09/10/23 2023	Browns	24	vs.	Bengals	3	360	206	154	0	2	+1.0	46.5	-21	U 27 -19.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/08/23 2022	Browns	14	@	Steelers	28	364	134	230	0	1	+2.5	39.5	+14	O 42 +2.5
01/01/23 2022	Browns	24	@	Commanders	10	315	146	169	3	0	+1.5	41.5	-14	U 34 -7.5
12/24/22 2022	Browns	10	vs.	Saints	17	259	124	135	1	0	-3.0	32.5	+7	U 27 -5.5
12/17/22 2022	Browns	13	vs.	Ravens	3	304	143	161	1	0	-2.5	38.5	-10	U 16 -22.5
12/11/22 2022	Browns	10	@	Bengals	23	347	71	276	1	0	+4.0	47.0	+13	U 33 -14.0
12/04/22 2022	Browns	27	@	Texans	14	305	174	131	2	2	-7.5	46.5	-13	U 41 -5.5
11/27/22 2022	Browns	23	vs.	Buccaneers	17 OT	399	189	210	0	0	+3.5	42.5	-6	U 40 -2.5
11/20/22 2022	Browns	23	@	Bills	31	404	80	324	0	1	+7.5	50.5	+8	O 54 +3.5
11/13/22 2022	Browns	17	@	Dolphins	39	324	112	212	0	2	+3.5	49.0	+22	O 56 +7.0

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		24.0	-	-	3.0	360	206	154	0.0	2.0	+1.0	46.5	-21.0 +22.0	U 27.0 -19.5

Steelers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/01/23 2023	Steelers	-	@	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	41.5	-	-
09/24/23 2023	Steelers	-	@	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	43.5	-	-
09/18/23 2023	Steelers	-	vs.	Browns	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	38.5	-	-
09/10/23 2023	Steelers	7	vs.	49ers	30	273	41	232	0	0	+1.5	41.5	+23	U 37 -4.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/08/23 2022	Steelers	28	vs.	Browns	14	339	144	195	2	3	-2.5	39.5	-14	O 42 +2.5
01/01/23 2022	Steelers	16	@	Ravens	13	366	198	168	1	0	+1.0	35.5	-3	U 29 -6.5
12/24/22 2022	Steelers	13	vs.	Raiders	10	350	106	244	3	0	-2.5	38.0	-3	U 23 -15.0
12/18/22 2022	Steelers	24	@	Panthers	16	335	156	179	0	0	+2.5	37.5	-8	O 40 +2.5
12/11/22 2022	Steelers	14	vs.	Ravens	16	341	65	276	0	0	-2.0	36.5	+2	U 30 -6.5
12/04/22 2022	Steelers	19	@	Falcons	16	351	154	197	1	1	-1.0	43.0	-3	U 35 -8.0
11/28/22 2022	Steelers	24	@	Colts	17	346	172	174	1	0	+2.5	39.5	-7	O 41 +1.5
11/20/22 2022	Steelers	30	vs.	Bengals	37	367	102	265	2	1	+3.5	39.5	+7	O 67 +27.5
11/13/22 2022	Steelers	20	vs.	Saints	10	416	217	199	2	1	-1.0	39.5	-10	U 30 -9.5

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		7.0	-	-	30.0	273	41	232	0.0	0.0	+1.5	41.5	+23.0 -21.5	U 37.0 -4.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		7.0	-	-	30.0	273	41	232	0.0	0.0	+1.5	41.5	+23.0 -21.5	U 37.0 -4.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Steelers (Home)

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) against the spread

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) against the spread at home

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a dog

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) to the under

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) to the under at home

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) to the under as a dog

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) to the under as a home dog

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Steelers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Steelers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Browns (Away)

The Browns are 100% (1-0) against the spread

The Browns are 100% (1-0) to the under

The Browns are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Browns are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/08/23 2022	Steelers	28	vs.	Browns	14	339	144	195	2	3	-2.5	39.5	-14	O 42 +2.5
09/22/22 2022	Steelers	17	@	Browns	29	391	171	220	0	0	+4.0	37.5	+12	O 46 +8.5
01/03/22 2021	Steelers	26	vs.	Browns	14	313	190	123	2	2	-2.0	42.0	-12	U 40 -2.0
10/31/21 2021	Steelers	15	@	Browns	10	321	96	225	0	1	+4.5	43.0	-5	U 25 -18.0
01/10/21 2020	Steelers	37	vs.	Browns	48	553	52	501	0	1	-5.5	47.0	+11	O 85 +38.0
01/03/21 2020	Steelers	22	@	Browns	24	388	192	196	1	0	+10.5	44.5	+2	O 46 +1.5
10/18/20 2020	Steelers	38	vs.	Browns	7	297	129	168	2	0	-3.0	50.0	-31	U 45 -5.0

Steelers as Home (4 games)		32.3	-	-	20.8	376	129	247	1.5	1.5	-3.3	44.6	-11.5 +8.3	O 53.0 +8.4

All Games Avg (7 games)		26.1	-	-	20.9	372	139	233	1.0	1.0	+0.9	43.4	-5.3 +6.1	O 47.0 +3.6