NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/17, Final: 17 – 27
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bears: 0-1 (0.0%) - NFC North

Buccaneers: 1-0 (100.0%) - NFC South

Line: -2.5

Total: 40.5

Open: +1.5

Open: 44

Team totals: Bears 20.5 · Buccaneers 21.5

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Injury Report CHINo report TBNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

The model doesn't have enough games played yet this season to generate reliable predictions — it typically won't start producing projections until Week 3.

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Bears Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/01/23 2023	Bears	-	vs.	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	47.0	-	-
09/24/23 2023	Bears	-	@	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+12.5	48.5	-	-
09/17/23 2023	Bears	-	@	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	40.5	-	-
09/10/23 2023	Bears	20	vs.	Packers	38	338	122	216	0	1	-1.0	41.0	+18	O 58 +17.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/08/23 2022	Bears	13	vs.	Vikings	29	265	118	147	1	0	+6.5	43.0	+16	U 42 -1.0
01/01/23 2022	Bears	10	@	Lions	41	275	200	75	0	1	+4.0	52.0	+31	U 51 -1.0
12/24/22 2022	Bears	13	vs.	Bills	35	224	80	144	2	2	+8.0	40.5	+22	O 48 +7.5
12/18/22 2022	Bears	20	vs.	Eagles	25	309	157	152	2	4	+8.5	47.5	+5	U 45 -2.5
12/04/22 2022	Bears	19	vs.	Packers	28	409	155	254	0	1	+3.5	45.0	+9	O 47 +2.0
11/27/22 2022	Bears	10	@	Jets	31	306	127	179	0	2	+7.5	36.5	+21	O 41 +4.5
11/20/22 2022	Bears	24	@	Falcons	27	313	160	153	0	2	+2.0	48.0	+3	O 51 +3.0
11/13/22 2022	Bears	30	vs.	Lions	31	425	258	167	0	1	-3.0	48.0	+1	O 61 +13.0
11/06/22 2022	Bears	32	vs.	Dolphins	35	375	252	123	0	0	+3.5	46.0	+3	O 67 +21.0

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		20.0	-	-	38.0	338	122	216	0.0	1.0	-1.0	41.0	+18.0 -19.0	O 58.0 +17.0

Buccaneers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/01/23 2023	Buccaneers	-	@	Saints	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	41.0	-	-
09/25/23 2023	Buccaneers	-	vs.	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	44.0	-	-
09/17/23 2023	Buccaneers	-	vs.	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	40.5	-	-
09/10/23 2023	Buccaneers	20	@	Vikings	17	246	73	173	1	0	+4.0	45.0	-3	U 37 -8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/16/23 2022	Buccaneers	14	vs.	Cowboys	31	403	52	351	0	2	+3.0	45.5	+17	U 45 -0.5
01/08/23 2022	Buccaneers	17	@	Falcons	30	222	86	136	0	1	+6.0	40.5	+13	O 47 +6.5
01/01/23 2022	Buccaneers	30	vs.	Panthers	24	499	67	432	1	1	-3.5	40.5	-6	O 54 +13.5
12/25/22 2022	Buccaneers	19	@	Cardinals	16 OT	396	115	281	1	0	-7.5	41.5	-3	U 35 -6.5
12/18/22 2022	Buccaneers	23	vs.	Bengals	34	404	92	312	1	3	+3.0	47.5	+11	O 57 +9.5
12/11/22 2022	Buccaneers	7	@	49ers	35	322	69	253	0	2	+3.5	38.5	+28	O 42 +3.5
12/05/22 2022	Buccaneers	17	vs.	Saints	16	357	76	281	0	1	-3.5	40.5	-1	U 33 -7.5
11/27/22 2022	Buccaneers	17	@	Browns	23 OT	342	96	246	1	0	-3.5	42.5	+6	U 40 -2.5
11/13/22 2022	Buccaneers	21	vs.	Seahawks	16	419	161	258	0	0	-2.5	45.0	-5	U 37 -8.0

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		20.0	-	-	17.0	246	73	173	1.0	0.0	+4.0	45.0	-3.0 +7.0	U 37.0 -8.0

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Buccaneers (Home)

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) to the under

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under

Bears (Away)

The Bears are 0% (0-1) against the spread

The Bears are 100% (1-0) to the over

The Bears are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bears are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/24/21 2021	Buccaneers	38	vs.	Bears	3	408	182	226	3	2	-12.0	47.0	-35	U 41 -6.0
10/08/20 2020	Buccaneers	19	@	Bears	20	278	35	243	0	1	-3.5	44.0	+1	U 39 -5.0

Buccaneers as Home (1 games)		38.0	-	-	3.0	408	182	226	3.0	2.0	-12.0	47.0	-35.0 +23.0	U 41.0 -6.0

All Games Avg (2 games)		28.5	-	-	11.5	343	109	235	1.5	1.5	-7.8	45.5	-17.0 +9.3	U 40.0 -5.5