WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 84 – 67
Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury

Sun: 3-0 (100.0%) | Market Rating: +0.36

Mercury: 2-1 (66.7%) | Market Rating: +0.85 | Home Court: +0.9 pts

Line: -3.0

Total: 161.5

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Injury Report CONNo report PHXNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Too early in the season for the Baller Index: the algos need both teams to have played 4 games, and this is game 4 for the Sun and game 4 for the Mercury. Predictions start with their games once each has played 4: the Sun after Fri, May 21, the Mercury after Fri, May 21.

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Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sun Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/25/21 2021	Sun	-	@	Storm	-	+3.5	161.5	-	-
05/23/21 2021	Sun	-	@	Aces	-	+6.0	162.0	-	-
05/21/21 2021	Sun	-	@	Mercury	-	+3.0	161.5	-	-
05/19/21	Sun	88	vs.	Fever	67	-7.0	161.0	-21	U 155 -6.0
2021	ORtg: 125.2 DRtg: 95.3 Pace: 70.3			ORtg: 95.3 DRtg: 125.2 Pace: 70.3
05/16/21	Sun	86	vs.	Mercury	78	-1.0	162.5	-8	O 164 +1.5
2021	ORtg: 112.3 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 112.3 Pace: 76.6
05/14/21	Sun	78	@	Dream	67	-2.5	163.0	-11	U 145 -18.0
2021	ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 75.7
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/20	Sun	63	vs.	Aces	66	+3.5	157.0	+3	U 129 -28.0
2020	ORtg: 82.0 DRtg: 85.9 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 85.9 DRtg: 82.0 Pace: 76.8
09/27/20	Sun	75	vs.	Aces	84	+3.0	157.5	+9	O 159 +1.5
2020	ORtg: 97.1 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 97.1 Pace: 77.2
09/24/20	Sun	77	vs.	Aces	68	+6.5	160.5	-9	U 145 -15.5
2020	ORtg: 100.6 DRtg: 88.9 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 88.9 DRtg: 100.6 Pace: 76.5
09/22/20	Sun	75	vs.	Aces	83	+5.5	160.5	+8	U 158 -2.5
2020	ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 105.9 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 105.9 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 78.4
09/20/20	Sun	87	vs.	Aces	62	+6.0	162.5	-25	U 149 -13.5
2020	ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 77.7 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 77.7 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 79.8
09/17/20	Sun	73	vs.	Sparks	59	+5.0	158.5	-14	U 132 -26.5
2020	ORtg: 98.2 DRtg: 79.3 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 79.3 DRtg: 98.2 Pace: 74.4
09/15/20	Sun	94	vs.	Sky	81	+2.0	165.5	-13	O 175 +9.5
2020	ORtg: 129.9 DRtg: 111.9 Pace: 72.4			ORtg: 111.9 DRtg: 129.9 Pace: 72.4

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		78.0	-	-	67.0	-2.5	163.0	-11.0 +8.5	U 145.0 -18.0
	ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 75.7

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		84.0	-	-	70.7	-3.5	162.2	-13.3 +9.8	U 154.7 -7.5
	ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 95.2 Pace: 74.2			ORtg: 95.2 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 74.2

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/29/21 2021	Mercury	-	@	Wings	-	-1.0	168.5	-	-
05/26/21 2021	Mercury	-	vs.	Aces	-	+6.0	166.5	-	-
05/21/21 2021	Mercury	-	vs.	Sun	-	-3.0	161.5	-	-
05/18/21	Mercury	91	@	Mystics	70	-3.5	163.5	-21	U 161 -2.5
2021	ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 76.9
05/16/21	Mercury	78	@	Sun	86	+1.0	162.5	+8	O 164 +1.5
2021	ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 112.3 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 112.3 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 76.6
05/14/21	Mercury	77	@	Lynx	75	+1.0	164.0	-2	U 152 -12.0
2021	ORtg: 93.3 DRtg: 90.8 Pace: 82.6			ORtg: 90.8 DRtg: 93.3 Pace: 82.6
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/17/20	Mercury	79	vs.	Lynx	80	+4.5	167.5	+1	U 159 -8.5
2020	ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 101.3 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 101.3 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 79.0
09/15/20	Mercury	85	vs.	Mystics	84	-4.5	164.5	-1	O 169 +4.5
2020	ORtg: 112.4 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 75.6			ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 112.4 Pace: 75.6
09/11/20	Mercury	60	vs.	Storm	83	+4.5	166.0	+23	U 143 -23.0
2020	ORtg: 79.9 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 79.9 Pace: 75.1
09/09/20	Mercury	100	vs.	Sun	95 OT	-3.5	161.5	-5	O 195 +33.5
2020	ORtg: 111.3 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 111.3 Pace: 81.4
09/07/20	Mercury	69	vs.	Sun	85	-3.0	165.5	+16	U 154 -11.5
2020	ORtg: 89.7 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 89.7 Pace: 77.0
09/05/20	Mercury	83	vs.	Liberty	67	-12.5	167.5	-16	U 150 -17.5
2020	ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 86.4 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 86.4 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 77.6
09/03/20	Mercury	105	vs.	Fever	81	-7.0	172.5	-24	O 186 +13.5
2020	ORtg: 122.6 DRtg: 94.6 Pace: 85.6			ORtg: 94.6 DRtg: 122.6 Pace: 85.6

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		82.0	-	-	77.0	-0.5	163.3	-5.0 +4.5	U 159.0 -4.3
	ORtg: 104.5 DRtg: 98.0 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 98.0 DRtg: 104.5 Pace: 78.7

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Mercury are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Mercury are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Sun are 100% (4-0) against the spread

The Sun are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Sun are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sun are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

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Mercury (Home)

The Mercury are 50% (2-2) against the spread

The Mercury are 0% (0-1) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Mercury are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) to the under at home

The Mercury are 100% (2-0) to the under as a fav

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) to the under as a home fav

The Mercury are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Mercury are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Mercury are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Sun (Away)

The Sun are 100% (4-0) against the spread

The Sun are 100% (2-0) against the spread away

The Sun are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 100% (1-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Sun are 75% (3-1) to the under

The Sun are 100% (2-0) to the under away

The Sun are 100% (1-0) to the under as a dog

The Sun are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away dog