WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 100 – 106
Phoenix Mercury / Indiana Fever Neutral site

Mercury: 0-1 (0.0%) | Market Rating: +0.14

Fever: 0-1 (0.0%) | Market Rating: -1.44

Line: +5.0

Total: 164.0

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Injury Report PHXNo report INDNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Too early in the season for the Baller Index: the algos need both teams to have played 4 games, and this is game 2 for the Mercury and game 2 for the Fever. Predictions start with their games once each has played 4: the Mercury after Sun, Aug 2, the Fever after Sun, Aug 2.

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/02/20 2020	Mercury	-	vs.	Liberty	-	-11.0	169.5	-	-
07/31/20 2020	Mercury	-	vs.	Aces	-	+6.5	176.0	-	-
07/29/20 2020	Mercury	-	vs.	Fever	-	-5.0	164.0	-	-
07/25/20	Mercury	76	vs.	Sparks	99	+3.5	154.5	+23	O 175 +20.5
2020	ORtg: 90.0 DRtg: 117.2 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 117.2 DRtg: 90.0 Pace: 84.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/11/19	Mercury	76	@	Sky	105	+6.5	171.0	+29	O 181 +10.0
2019	ORtg: 89.1 DRtg: 123.1 Pace: 85.3			ORtg: 123.1 DRtg: 89.1 Pace: 85.3
09/08/19	Mercury	89	vs.	Aces	98	+3.5	162.0	+9	O 187 +25.0
2019	ORtg: 108.1 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 108.1 Pace: 82.3
09/06/19	Mercury	69	vs.	Lynx	83	-2.0	156.5	+14	U 152 -4.5
2019	ORtg: 88.0 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 88.0 Pace: 78.4
09/03/19	Mercury	70	vs.	Storm	82	-5.5	153.5	+12	U 152 -1.5
2019	ORtg: 92.3 DRtg: 108.1 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 108.1 DRtg: 92.3 Pace: 75.8
09/01/19	Mercury	78	@	Sky	105	+3.5	169.0	+27	O 183 +14.0
2019	ORtg: 99.4 DRtg: 133.9 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 133.9 DRtg: 99.4 Pace: 78.4
08/29/19	Mercury	65	@	Dream	58	-4.5	154.5	-7	U 123 -31.5
2019	ORtg: 82.3 DRtg: 73.4 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 73.4 DRtg: 82.3 Pace: 79.0
08/27/19	Mercury	95	@	Liberty	82	-6.0	159.5	-13	O 177 +17.5
2019	ORtg: 125.9 DRtg: 108.7 Pace: 75.5			ORtg: 108.7 DRtg: 125.9 Pace: 75.5
08/25/19	Mercury	86	vs.	Sky	94	-4.0	167.0	+8	O 180 +13.0
2019	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 82.6			ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 82.6
08/20/19	Mercury	79	@	Aces	84 OT	+8.5	159.0	+5	O 163 +4.0
2019	ORtg: 87.2 DRtg: 92.7 Pace: 82.0			ORtg: 92.7 DRtg: 87.2 Pace: 82.0

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		76.0	-	-	99.0	+3.5	154.5	+23.0 -19.5	O 175.0 +20.5
	ORtg: 90.0 DRtg: 117.2 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 117.2 DRtg: 90.0 Pace: 84.5

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/02/20 2020	Fever	-	vs.	Dream	-	+1.0	170.0	-	-
07/31/20 2020	Fever	-	vs.	Wings	-	+3.0	171.5	-	-
07/29/20 2020	Fever	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+5.0	164.0	-	-
07/25/20	Fever	76	vs.	Mystics	101	-1.0	157.5	+25	O 177 +19.5
2020	ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 122.9 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 122.9 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 82.2
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/08/19	Fever	104	vs.	Sun	76	+3.5	160.5	-28	O 180 +19.5
2019	ORtg: 125.5 DRtg: 91.7 Pace: 82.8			ORtg: 91.7 DRtg: 125.5 Pace: 82.8
09/06/19	Fever	86	@	Liberty	81	-2.0	163.5	-5	O 167 +3.5
2019	ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 95.0 Pace: 85.3			ORtg: 95.0 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 85.3
09/01/19	Fever	73	@	Lynx	81	+9.5	158.0	+8	U 154 -4.0
2019	ORtg: 95.5 DRtg: 105.9 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 105.9 DRtg: 95.5 Pace: 76.5
08/29/19	Fever	83	vs.	Sparks	87	+5.5	148.0	+4	O 170 +22.0
2019	ORtg: 104.6 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 104.6 Pace: 79.4
08/27/19	Fever	86	vs.	Aces	71	+7.0	162.5	-15	U 157 -5.5
2019	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 90.3 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 90.3 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 78.6
08/25/19	Fever	63	@	Storm	54	+10.0	152.0	-9	U 117 -35.0
2019	ORtg: 90.0 DRtg: 77.1 Pace: 70.0			ORtg: 77.1 DRtg: 90.0 Pace: 70.0
08/22/19	Fever	65	@	Sparks	98	+9.5	159.5	+33	O 163 +3.5
2019	ORtg: 75.9 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 85.6			ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 75.9 Pace: 85.6
08/20/19	Fever	76	vs.	Liberty	82	-5.0	158.0	+6	P 158 0.0
2019	ORtg: 98.9 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 98.9 Pace: 76.9
08/18/19	Fever	68	@	Mystics	107	+13.0	166.0	+39	O 175 +9.0
2019	ORtg: 88.9 DRtg: 140.0 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 140.0 DRtg: 88.9 Pace: 76.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		76.0	-	-	101.0	-1.0	157.5	+25.0 -26.0	O 177.0 +19.5
	ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 122.9 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 122.9 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 82.2

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Records

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Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

The Fever are 70% (7-3) to the over as a home dog

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) to the under as an away fav

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Fever (Home)

The Fever are 51.4% (18-17-1) against the spread

The Fever are 47.1% (8-9) against the spread at home

The Fever are 58.3% (14-10-1) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 60% (6-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Fever are 62.9% (22-13-1) to the over

The Fever are 62.5% (10-6-1) to the over at home

The Fever are 64% (16-9) to the over as a dog

The Fever are 70% (7-3) to the over as a home dog

The Fever are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fever are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

Mercury (Away)

The Mercury are 44.4% (16-20-1) against the spread

The Mercury are 52.9% (9-8-1) against the spread away

The Mercury are 40% (8-12) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 51.4% (19-18) to the under

The Mercury are 55.6% (10-8) to the under away

The Mercury are 65% (13-7) to the under as a fav