WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 76
Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream

Mercury: 14-5 (73.7%)

Dream: 8-9 (47.1%)

Line: +4.5

Total: 160.5

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Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/13/18 2018	Mercury	-	@	Sun	-	+5.5	169.0	-	-
07/10/18 2018	Mercury	-	@	Wings	-	+2.5	171.0	-	-
07/08/18 2018	Mercury	-	@	Dream	-	-4.5	160.5	-	-
07/05/18	Mercury	84	vs.	Sun	77	-6.5	169.5	-7	U 161 -8.5
2018	ORtg: 109.2 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 109.2 Pace: 76.9
06/30/18	Mercury	84	@	Mystics	74	+3.5	167.0	-10	U 158 -9.0
2018	ORtg: 108.4 DRtg: 95.5 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 95.5 DRtg: 108.4 Pace: 77.5
06/29/18	Mercury	95	@	Fever	77	-7.5	162.5	-18	O 172 +9.5
2018	ORtg: 122.5 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 122.5 Pace: 77.6
06/26/18	Mercury	83	@	Liberty	69	-3.5	160.5	-14	U 152 -8.5
2018	ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 74.0			ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 74.0
06/24/18	Mercury	88	@	Sky	97	-7.0	164.5	+9	O 185 +20.5
2018	ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 81.5			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 81.5
06/22/18	Mercury	72	vs.	Lynx	83	-2.0	162.0	+11	U 155 -7.0
2018	ORtg: 91.2 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 91.2 Pace: 78.9
06/17/18	Mercury	92	@	Aces	80	-7.0	163.5	-12	O 172 +8.5
2018	ORtg: 116.4 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 116.4 Pace: 79.1
06/16/18	Mercury	89	vs.	Sun	72	-5.5	172.5	-17	U 161 -11.5
2018	ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 89.5 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 89.5 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 80.4
06/12/18	Mercury	75	@	Wings	72	+1.0	169.5	-3	U 147 -22.5
2018	ORtg: 96.7 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 96.7 Pace: 77.6
06/10/18	Mercury	72	vs.	Aces	66	-12.0	168.0	-6	U 138 -30.0
2018	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 83.5 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 83.5 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 79.0

Away Games Avg (6 games)		86.2	-	-	78.2	-3.4	164.6	-8.0 +4.6	U 164.3 -0.3
	ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 77.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.4	-	-	76.7	-4.7	166.0	-6.7 +2.1	U 160.1 -5.9
	ORtg: 106.6 DRtg: 97.9 Pace: 78.3			ORtg: 97.9 DRtg: 106.6 Pace: 78.3

Dream Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/13/18 2018	Dream	-	vs.	Fever	-	-10.0	158.0	-	-
07/11/18 2018	Dream	-	@	Mystics	-	+8.0	164.5	-	-
07/08/18 2018	Dream	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+4.5	160.5	-	-
07/06/18	Dream	86	vs.	Storm	95	+4.5	161.0	+9	O 181 +20.0
2018	ORtg: 101.9 DRtg: 112.6 Pace: 84.4			ORtg: 112.6 DRtg: 101.9 Pace: 84.4
07/01/18	Dream	87	@	Fever	83	-3.0	155.0	-4	O 170 +15.0
2018	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 81.8
06/29/18	Dream	74	@	Lynx	85	+12.5	155.0	+11	O 159 +4.0
2018	ORtg: 92.7 DRtg: 106.5 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 106.5 DRtg: 92.7 Pace: 79.8
06/27/18	Dream	80	@	Sky	93	+2.0	157.5	+13	O 173 +15.5
2018	ORtg: 98.5 DRtg: 114.6 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 114.6 DRtg: 98.5 Pace: 81.2
06/22/18	Dream	75	vs.	Sun	70	+6.0	164.5	-5	U 145 -19.5
2018	ORtg: 92.1 DRtg: 86.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 86.0 DRtg: 92.1 Pace: 81.4
06/19/18	Dream	72	@	Liberty	79	+6.0	150.5	+7	O 151 +0.5
2018	ORtg: 85.4 DRtg: 93.7 Pace: 84.3			ORtg: 93.7 DRtg: 85.4 Pace: 84.3
06/16/18	Dream	64	@	Fever	96	-4.0	151.0	+32	O 160 +9.0
2018	ORtg: 80.8 DRtg: 121.1 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 121.1 DRtg: 80.8 Pace: 79.2
06/14/18	Dream	72	vs.	Fever	67	-9.0	153.0	-5	U 139 -14.0
2018	ORtg: 93.4 DRtg: 86.9 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 86.9 DRtg: 93.4 Pace: 77.1
06/12/18	Dream	64	@	Sparks	72	+8.5	151.0	+8	U 136 -15.0
2018	ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 103.7 Pace: 69.4			ORtg: 103.7 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 69.4
06/10/18	Dream	67	@	Storm	64	+7.5	166.5	-3	U 131 -35.5
2018	ORtg: 84.4 DRtg: 80.6 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 80.6 DRtg: 84.4 Pace: 79.4

Home Games Avg (3 games)		77.7	-	-	77.3	+0.5	159.5	-0.3 +0.8	U 155.0 -4.5
	ORtg: 95.8 DRtg: 95.2 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 95.2 DRtg: 95.8 Pace: 81.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		74.1	-	-	80.4	+3.1	156.5	+6.3 -3.2	U 154.5 -2.0
	ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 100.7 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 100.7 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 79.8

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Dream are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Dream are 87.5% (7-1) to the under at home

The Dream are 80% (4-1) to the under as a home dog

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Mercury are 75% (9-3) against the spread away

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

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Dream (Home)

The Dream are 50% (9-9) against the spread

The Dream are 50% (4-4) against the spread at home

The Dream are 63.6% (7-4) against the spread as a dog

The Dream are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Dream are 55.6% (10-8) to the under

The Dream are 87.5% (7-1) to the under at home

The Dream are 54.5% (6-5) to the under as a dog

The Dream are 80% (4-1) to the under as a home dog

The Dream are 50% (6-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Dream are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Dream are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Dream are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Dream are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Mercury (Away)

The Mercury are 65% (13-7) against the spread

The Mercury are 75% (9-3) against the spread away

The Mercury are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 60% (3-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 55% (11-9) to the under

The Mercury are 58.3% (7-5) to the under away

The Mercury are 53.8% (7-6) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 60% (3-2) to the over as an away fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (8-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mercury are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 66.7% (8-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under away

The Mercury are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Mercury are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/03/18	Dream	71	vs.	Mercury	78	-1.0	161.0	+7	U 149 -12.0
2018	ORtg: 93.5 DRtg: 102.7 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 102.7 DRtg: 93.5 Pace: 75.9
09/03/17	Dream	70	@	Mercury	84	+8.5	161.5	+14	U 154 -7.5
2017	ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 109.9 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 109.9 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 76.4
07/25/17	Dream	99	vs.	Mercury	91	-6.0	163.0	-8	O 190 +27.0
2017	ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 95.9 Pace: 85.9			ORtg: 95.9 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 85.9
07/12/17	Dream	84	@	Mercury	89	+7.0	163.5	+5	O 173 +9.5
2017	ORtg: 106.6 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 106.6 Pace: 78.8

Dream as Home (2 games)		85.0	-	-	84.5	-3.5	162.0	-0.5 -3.0	O 169.5 +7.5
	ORtg: 98.9 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 98.9 Pace: 80.9

All Games Avg (4 games)		81.0	-	-	85.5	+2.1	162.3	+4.5 -2.4	O 166.5 +4.3
	ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 105.4 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 105.4 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 79.3