Welcome to the NFL Week 1 Newsletter! Week 1 is less than a week away! The excitement of Sundays spent glued to the Red Zone Channel, anxiously watching your bets unfold, is almost here.
Welcome to the inaugural edition of our weekly NFL newsletter at The Money Baller. Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.
While Week 1 is available for everyone to preview, subsequent editions will be exclusive to Baller Access members. Dive in and get ready for a season full of action and analysis!
NFL Week 1 Newletter Table of Contents:
- I. Week 1 Underdogs: A unstoppable phenomenon
- II. Super Bowl Teams: Trends for the winner and loser
- III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
- IV. Early-season underdogs
- V. Other various Week 1 trends and stats
- VI. Key Numbers
- Write-ups and picks
I. Week 1 Underdogs
Looking back at previous seasons, there’s a noticeable trend: underdogs often thrive in Week 1. Short underdogs, those with a line of +2.5 or fewer, have a strong track record, going 47-26-3 (64.4%) against the spread (ATS). As of this writing, four teams fall into this category for the upcoming Week 1:
- Cowboys +2.5 (vs. Browns)
- Giants +1 (vs. Vikings)
- Colts +2.5 (vs. Texans)
- Packers +2.5 (vs. Eagles)
Week 1 underdogs in divisional matchups have been even more successful, posting a 36-15-1 (70.6%) ATS record since the 2014 season. This season, there are eight divisional games where underdogs are active, including:
- Raiders (vs. Chargers)
- Colts (vs. Texans)
- Panthers (vs. Saints)
Home underdogs, in particular, are 14-4 ATS in this spot, and the Colts are among those in play this season.
Underdogs have historically performed well on Monday Night Football in Week 1 with an impressive 30-16-3 ATS record dating back to 1997. This trend is in play for the New York Jets as they face off against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1.
The significance of this trend lies in the underdog’s ability to thrive under the prime-time spotlight. Monday Night Football is a stage where expectations and pressure are high, often leading to tighter, more competitive games than the betting line might suggest. For the Jets, this historical edge could be a key factor in their Week 1 matchup.
Backing some of these teams may not seem appealing at first glance, but my experience with NFL betting often involves embracing discomfort. The logic holds: teams are fresh off the offseason and eager to set the tone. Divisional games are typically more competitive than the market and public might expect, especially with limited games and high stakes in the playoff race.
Keep an eye on these underdogs in Week 1—they might just surprise you.
II. Super Bowl Teams
How do the previous season’s Super Bowl Teams typically fare in Week 1 of the following season?
Since the 2002 season, Super Bowl losers have struggled in their Week 1 matchups, going just 10-12 SU and an awful 5-17 against the spread. This trend underscores the so-called “Super Bowl hangover,” where the psychological and physical toll of coming so close to victory only to fall short lingers into the next season.
This year, the San Francisco 49ers find themselves in this unenviable position. Favored by 4 points at home against the New York Jets, they face the challenge of bucking this trend. Despite their talent and home-field advantage, history suggests a cautious approach when betting on the 49ers in Week 1.
On the flip side, Super Bowl winners have generally maintained their momentum heading into the next season, posting a strong 17-5 SU and 13-8-1 ATS record in Week 1 since 2002. This trend highlights the confidence and continuity often enjoyed by teams coming off a championship run. The Super Bowl victory often serves as a springboard for a strong start to the following season.
This year, the Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off their Super Bowl triumph, are 3-point favorites at home against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
III. Thursday – Look Ahead Spots
One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading favorites who are set to play their next game on a Thursday. According to the KillerSports database, fading these favorites in Week 4 or earlier has produced a remarkable 36-15-1 ATS record, a success rate of 70.6%. This trend is in play in Week 1 as a potential fade against the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.
The looming Thursday night game forces them to prepare for two games within a tight timeframe, which can lead to lack of focus. This is especially challenging early in the season, when teams are still working out the kinks and shaking off the offseason rust. The physical and mental toll of anticipating a short turnaround can also disrupt a team’s rhythm, making them more vulnerable to an upset. Even the best teams can struggle with preparation and execution when faced with the prospect of playing two games in just a few days.
IV. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs
Earlier in this newsletter, we touched on the success of Week 1 underdogs, but we want to dive deeper into one of our standout offerings—our “Baller Systems.” For members with Baller Access, we provide exclusive insights through a database of 50-plus systems, each meticulously back-tested over the past five seasons for consistent profitability. On our matchup pages, you’ll find which of our profitable systems are in play for each game.
One of our “Baller Systems” favors early-season (Week 4 or earlier) road underdogs who are getting 3.5 points or fewer and won their previous head-to-head matchup. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 45-18-2 record ATS.
This trend is active in four Week 1 games:
- Commanders (vs. Buccaneers)
- Jaguars (vs. Dolphins)
- Raiders (vs. Chargers)
- Steelers (vs. Falcons)
The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued, especially when they’ve previously proven they can beat their upcoming opponent. The familiarity and confidence gained from a previous victory can give these teams a psychological edge, making them a smart play for savvy bettors.
V. Various Week 1 Trends
These aren’t actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note over the years that may be telling:
- Colts are 2-13-1 SU and 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2008.
- Lions are 12-1 to the over in Week 1 since 2011 (last season’s Week 1 went under).
- Chiefs are 7-1-1 to the over in Week 1 since 2015 (last season’s Week 1 went under).
- Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 since the 2016 season.
- Giants are 1-11 ATS and 11-1 to the under in their home debuts since 2012.
- Rams are 6-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2017.
- Jaguars are 5-0 to the over in Week 1 since 2019.
Not active this week:
- Rams are 8-1 ATS in their home debuts since 2015.
- Saints are 2-13-1 ATS in their first season road game since 2007.
- Vikings are 7-1 ATS and 7-1-1 to the under in their home debuts since 2015.
V. Key Numbers
Refer to the tables above, which display the frequency of margin of victories and total scores over the past five seasons:
- It’s no secret that 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL, closely followed by 7. Approximately one-quarter of all NFL games end with a margin of 3 or 7 points. Sportsbooks are keenly aware of these key numbers and often set their lines accordingly.
- In recent seasons, the importance of the number “6” has grown significantly. In 2022, more games ended with a margin of 6 points than 7. This shift is largely due to teams increasingly opting for 2-point conversions, changing the dynamics of scoring.
- While it might be tempting to buy a half-point to land on or off a key number (such as moving from 2.5 to 3 or from 3.5 to 3), be aware that sportsbooks often charge a hefty premium for this adjustment. These premiums can range from 15 to 25 cents, pushing the cost of these bets to -125 or even -135. Over time, this added expense can erode your profitability, requiring you to win at a higher rate just to break even.
- Regarding totals, 41 was the most common total last season and is a key number, even though it hasn’t been as frequent over the past five seasons. Other notable totals include 51, 44, 40, and 37. However, the distribution of total scores is not as concentrated as margin of victory, which means they don’t hold as much value when considering buying half-points or including them in teasers. My recommendation is to avoid buying half-points on totals or incorporating them into teasers.
Our Breakdowns
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
We have two Baller Systems signaling a play on the Jaguars in Week 1.
Both the Jaguars and Dolphins ended last season on a disappointing note. The Dolphins had a strong regular season but stumbled in their final games against the Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs, ultimately crashing out of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Jaguars seemed poised to capture the AFC South title, but a high-ankle sprain to Trevor Lawrence derailed their season as they lost five of their final six games, dropping out of contention.
On paper, the Dolphins are the stronger team with their explosive offense. However, they find themselves in a challenging situation, with a short turnaround to a Thursday Night Football matchup against divisional rival Bills in Week 2. This disadvantage could impact their Week 1 performance.
Turnovers were a significant issue for the Jaguars last season, ranking 31st in fumbles and 21st in interceptions. However, there’s potential for positive regression in this area, particularly against a Dolphins defense that was average last season, ranking 15th in EPA/play allowed and 19th in Defensive DVOA. When you factor in Week 1 underdog trends, we like the Jaguars to cover the short +3 line.
Jaguars +3 (EV, bet365 and Caesars)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Another two Baller Systems point us in the direction of the Steelers for Week 1.
There’s a lot of buzz surrounding the Falcons this season, thanks to the arrival of a new head coach, Raheem Morris, and quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Falcons’ offense is full of talent and dynamic playmakers, but they may need time to find their rhythm. Cousins, coming off an injury and without any preseason snaps, could face early struggles as he gets acclimated.
On the other hand, the Steelers have been a model of consistency under Mike Tomlin, who’s entering his 18th season as head coach. Pittsburgh’s defense, led by T.J. Watt and ranked 7th in EPA/play last season, is more than capable of giving the Falcons’ offense a tough time.
In a game with a low total, I’m leaning toward the Steelers as the underdog, trusting in their proven track record and defensive excellence.
Steelers +3 (-110, bet365 and Caesars)
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
We’ve got two compelling angles highlighted above that support the Jets on Monday Night Football. Historically, Super Bowl losers have struggled in their Week 1 matchups. Since the 2002 season, these teams are a disappointing 5-17 ATS. Additionally, underdogs have consistently performed well on Monday Night Football in Week 1 with an impressive 30-16-3 ATS record since 1997.
Adding to the 49ers’ challenges, they’re dealing with some regression after an almost flawless regular season last year. The team also faced distractions from offseason contract disputes, and now, the news that Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a calf injury raises further concerns.
The hungry Jets have made smart moves this offseason, focusing on building their offense around Aaron Rodgers and their elite defense. We like Breece Hall to have a standout performance against a 49ers run defense that ranked 26th in rush EPA/play allowed last season. We expect the Jets to keep the game close and cover the spread.
Jets +4 (-110, BM)
