Tag: nfl

NFL Week 1 Betting Guide: Expert Systems, Trends, and Top Plays

Posted on by Austin Wang

Welcome to the NFL Week 1 Newsletter! Week 1 is less than a week away! The excitement of Sundays spent glued to the Red Zone Channel, anxiously watching your bets unfold, is almost here.

Welcome to weekly NFL newsletter at The Money Baller. Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.

While Week 1 is available for everyone to preview, subsequent editions will be exclusive to Baller Access members. Dive in and get ready for a season full of action and analysis!


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NFL Week 1 Newletter Table of Contents:

  • I. Week 1 Underdogs: A unstoppable phenomenon
  • II. Super Bowl Teams: Trends for the winner and loser
  • III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
  • IV. Early-season underdogs
  • V.  Key Numbers
  • Write-ups and picks


Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

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I.  Week 1 Underdogs


Looking back at previous seasons, there’s a noticeable trend: underdogs often thrive in Week 1. Short underdogs, those with a line of +2.5 or fewer, have a strong track record, going 48-28-3 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) dating back to 2002. As of this writing, seven teams fall into this category for the upcoming Week 1:

  • Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
  • Dolphins +1.5 @ Colts
  • Raiders +2.5 @ Patriots
  • Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers
  • Lions +2.5 @ Packers
  • Texans +2.5 @ Rams
  • Ravens +1 @ Bills
  • Bears +1.5 @ Vikings


Week 1 underdogs in divisional matchups have been even more successful, posting a 56-30-2 (65.1%) ATS record since the 2009 season. This season, there are eight divisional games where underdogs are active, including:

  • Cowboys +7.5 @ Eagles
  • Chargers +3 vs. Chiefs
  • Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
  • Browns +5.5 vs. Bengals
  • Giants +6 @ Commanders
  • Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers
  • Lions +2.5 @ Packers
  • Bears +1.5 @ Vikings


Home underdogs, in particular, are 24-7 ATS in this spot, and the Falcons, Browns, Seahawks, Bears are among those in play this season.

Underdogs have historically performed well on Monday Night Football in Week 1 with an impressive 27-13-1 ATS record dating back to 1996. This trend is in play for the Chicago Bears as they face off against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.

  • Bears +1.5 vs. Vikings

The significance of this trend lies in the underdog’s ability to thrive under the prime-time spotlight. Monday Night Football is a stage where expectations and pressure are high, often leading to tighter, more competitive games than the betting line might suggest. For the Jets, this historical edge could be a key factor in their Week 1 matchup.

Backing some of these teams may not seem appealing at first glance, but my experience with NFL betting often involves embracing discomfort. The logic holds: teams are fresh off the offseason and eager to set the tone. Divisional games are typically more competitive than the market and public might expect, especially with limited games and high stakes in the playoff race.

Keep an eye on these underdogs in Week 1, they might just surprise you!


II. Super Bowl Teams


How do the previous season’s Super Bowl Teams typically fare in Week 1 of the following season?

Since the 2002 season, Super Bowl losers have struggled in their Week 1 matchups, going just 10-12 SU and an awful 6-16 against the spread. This trend underscores the so-called “Super Bowl hangover,” where the psychological and physical toll of coming so close to victory only to fall short lingers into the next season.

This year, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in this unenviable position. Favored by 3 points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, they face the challenge of bucking this trend. Despite their talent, history suggests a cautious approach when betting on the Chiefs in Week 1.

On the flip side, Super Bowl winners have generally maintained their momentum heading into the next season, posting a strong 17-5 SU and 14-7-1 ATS record in Week 1 since 2002. This trend highlights the confidence and continuity often enjoyed by teams coming off a championship run. The Super Bowl victory often serves as a springboard for a strong start to the following season.

This year, the Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl triumph, are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.



III.  Thursday – Look Ahead Spots


One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading favorites who are set to play their next game on a Thursday. According to the KillerSports database, fading these favorites in Week 4 or earlier has produced a remarkable 39-16-1 ATS record, a success rate of 70.9%. This trend is in play in Week 1 as a play on:

  • New York Giants +6 (@ Commanders)
  • Lions +2.5 (@ Packers)


The looming Thursday night game forces them to prepare for two games within a tight timeframe, which can lead to lack of focus. This is especially challenging early in the season, when teams are still working out the kinks and shaking off the offseason rust. The physical and mental toll of anticipating a short turnaround can also disrupt a team’s rhythm, making them more vulnerable to an upset. Even the best teams can struggle with preparation and execution when faced with the prospect of playing two games in just a few days.


IV.  Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs



Earlier in this newsletter, we touched on the success of Week 1 underdogs, but we want to dive deeper into one of our standout offerings—our “Baller Systems.” For members with Baller Access, we provide exclusive insights through a database of 50-plus systems, each meticulously back-tested over the past five seasons for consistent profitability. On our matchup pages, you’ll find which of our profitable systems are in play for each game.

One of our “Baller Systems” favors early-season (Week 4 or earlier) road underdogs who are getting 3.5 points or fewer and won their previous head-to-head matchup. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 51-23-2 record ATS.

This trend is active to play in two Week 1 games:

  • Lions (@ Packers)
  • Raiders (@ Patriots)


The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued, especially when they’ve previously proven they can beat their upcoming opponent. The familiarity and confidence gained from a previous victory can give these teams a psychological edge, making them a smart play for savvy bettors.


V. Key Numbers

Refer to the tables above, which display the frequency of margins of victory and total scores over the past five seasons:

  • It’s no surprise that 3 remains the most common margin of victory in the NFL.
  • However, recent seasons have highlighted the growing importance of the number 6. Over the past five years, games have landed on 6 more often than 7 – a shift driven by the league-wide increase in 2-point conversion attempts. We’re also seeing more outcomes land on 5, with 20 games in 2024 finishing with that margin.
  • For bettors, this matters when considering whether to “buy the hook” around key numbers. While moving off or onto 3 (for example, shifting from +2.5 to +3, or -3.5 to -3) may seem appealing, sportsbooks typically charge a steep premium for that adjustment. These extra costs often range from 15–25 cents, meaning you’ll be laying -125 or even -135. Over the long run, that eats into profitability, forcing you to hit a higher win rate just to break even.
  • In 2024, the most common final score total was 43, followed by 51, 37, and 44. Unlike margins of victory, however, totals are far less concentrated. That dispersion reduces the value of buying half-points or incorporating totals into teasers. For that reason, I recommend avoiding those adjustments on totals altogether.



Our Breakdowns


Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings


Baller Systems Active:

  • Back divisional home dogs when opponent’s next game is a division matchup


Situational Angles:

  • Week 1 underdogs
  • Divisional underdogs
  • Week 1 underdogs on Monday Night Football


The Vikings had a strong 2024 season, but there are signs of regression. Jordan Addison is sidelined, and rookie QB J.J. McCarthy makes his first career start after missing the preseason with injury. It’s a tough ask to get sharp immediately in a hostile divisional environment.

On the flip side, the Bears have renewed optimism with Caleb Williams under center and new HC Ben Johnson calling plays. Chicago’s rebuilt offensive line should give Williams time, and if that happens, the rookie’s playmaking ability can flip this matchup.

Systems, trends, and the situation all line up on Chicago here. With the Vikings’ offense in transition and the Bears looking like a live divisional dog, this is a buy spot.


✅ Play: Bears +1.5


New York Giants +6 @ Washington Commanders

Baller Systems Active:

  • Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday
  • Week: 1 Back road dog when next game is on the road


This isn’t the prettiest play on the board, but sometimes those are the ones that cash in the NFL. The Commanders enter with plenty of hype around Jayden Daniels, but regression is a real possibility in Year 2, especially as defenses get more tape on him. Washington also brings in new pieces like Deebo Samuel, but at this stage in his career, it’s questionable how much impact he can sustain across a full game.

The Commanders’ offensive line signed Laremy Tunsil, but he is prone to costly penalties and lapses. On the other side, the Giants quietly upgraded their defense this offseason and should match up well in the trenches.

With systems, trends, and situational angles all stacking on New York – plus holding the key number of +6 – this looks like a strong buy spot.

✅ Play: Giants +6


Detroit Lions +8.5, Atlanta Falcons +8.5. 6-point teaser

Our stats and trends above point toward both the Lions and the Falcons, but we’re hesitant to back them individually as Week 1 underdogs with heavy public support. Both lines opened shorter and have moved against the money, which is telling. Instead, we’ll take a 6-point teaser through the key numbers of 3 and 7, getting each team at +8.5.

Baller Systems Active:

  • 3 systems on the Lions
  • 2 systems on the Falcons

This approach protects us against tight divisional games while still aligning with the situational edges. Both teams should be live dogs in Week 1.

✅ Play: Lions +8.5 / Falcons +8.5 (Teaser)


Baltimore Ravens/Buffalo Bills Under 50.5

Early-season playoff rematches have historically leaned toward the under, with defensive intensity and team familiarity making scoring harder to come by. Both the Ravens and Bills fit that mold perfectly: two top-tier defenses, two offenses that lean on the run, and a physical, grind-it-out style of play. The Bills added Joey Bosa, a strong addition to their defense and filling a hole that Von Miller left.

The head-to-head history strongly favors the under as well: 9-2 to the Under in their last 11 regular-season matchups (4-0 to the Under in Buffalo)

With defensive intensity high and both teams more likely to play field-position football than a track meet, we see value in playing the under here.

✅ Play: Ravens/Bills Under 50.5



Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

NBA and NFL Money Baller Report – Sunday, January 26

Posted on by Austin Wang

NBA: Thunder @ Blazers

Key Stats & Systems:

  • Thunder: 29-14-2 ATS
  • 4 Baller Systems Active favoring the Thunder.
  • Turnover Edge: Thunder rank 1st in turnover rate allowed, while the Blazers are a sloppy 28th in turnover rate.
  • Mid-Range Dominance: Thunder excel at mid-range shooting (3rd in FG%), while the Blazers struggle defensively in this area (28th in FG% allowed).
  • 3 Baller Systems Active on the Over


TMB Thoughts:
The Thunder are in a strong bounce-back spot after a disappointing outright loss to the Mavericks. Their advantage in taking care of the ball and efficient mid-range shooting should be pivotal against a Blazers squad that is struggling defensively and prone to turnovers. On the other hand, the Blazers are in a let-down spot returning home off a three-game road trip off a win. With plenty of systems backing both the Thunder, this is a great spot to trust OKC to rebound. We’re backing the Thunder -14. The Over 226 is another play to consider with 3 systems on the over.


NFL: Bills @ Chiefs

  • Chiefs in Revenge Spots: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in same-season revenge games since 2019.
  • Playoff Dominance vs. Bills: Chiefs are 3-0 SU and ATS against the Bills in playoff matchups (2020, 2021, 2023).
  • Rest Advantage: Chiefs enter this game with a rest advantage.
  • Historical System: Teams coming off a playoff win as road underdogs with less rest are just 5-24 SU since 2013.


TMB Thoughts:
The Chiefs-Bills rivalry adds another chapter in the postseason, marking their fourth playoff clash in five seasons. However, this “rivalry” has been decisively one-sided, with the Chiefs controlling every playoff meeting.

This matchup strongly favors Kansas City. Their success in revenge spots and postseason games against the Bills is undeniable, and their rest advantage sets them up for another commanding performance. Historical trends also highlight the difficulty for teams like the Bills in similar situations.

This is a prime opportunity to back Chiefs -1.5.

NFL Wild-Card Saturday – Money Baller Report

Posted on by Austin Wang

The NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is Here!

One of the most exhilarating weekends of the NFL season has arrived, filled with intriguing matchups and compelling storylines. The stakes are higher, the rivalries deeper, and the drama palpable. Let’s dive into two powerful betting angles and break down some key matchups!


Revenge Angle

There’s nothing sweeter than payback. Teams looking to avenge a double-digit loss earlier in a regular season matchup have historically performed well against the spread. These teams boast a 40-25-3 ATS record (61.5%) and games in this situation tend to trend toward the Over (43-25 O/U, 63.2%).

This revenge angle is live this week for the Steelers, Vikings, and Commanders as they seek redemption and a ticket to the next round.


Momentum Angle

Momentum is the lifeblood of playoff success, and road underdogs riding a wave of victory have been money against the spread. Since 2018, road underdogs off a win facing home favorites off a loss are 115-77-2 ATS (59.9%).

This angle points to the Broncos, who carry the momentum of their recent win into hostile territory.


Chargers @ Texans

  • Texans Trends:
    • 6-11 Team Total O/U
    • 6-11 O/U overall
    • 13-4 1H ATS | 7-10 ATS full game
  • Chargers Trends:
    • 13-3-1 1H ATS | 13-4 ATS overall


The Texans have leaned heavily on their defense all season, ranking 7th in Defensive DVOA. However, their offensive struggles have been glaring, with the team ranking 26th in yards per play and Offensive DVOA. C.J. Stroud, who dazzled as a rookie, has hit the proverbial sophomore slump, further hampered by the losses of key weapons Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.

Expect the Texans to adopt a run-heavy approach, but even that may not save them against a Chargers defense that excels at getting to the quarterback (4th in sack rate) while the Texans rank 30th in sacks allowed. This mismatch spells trouble for Houston.

Our favorite angle? Texans Team Total under 19.5. The Texans have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last five games, and this slugfest doesn’t seem like the spot for a breakout performance.


Pick: Texans Team Total Under 19.5 (+106, FanDuel)

(Lines are sporadic here. I wouldn’t play a heavily juiced Under 21.5, but if you can find a TT Under 20.5 or 19.5 at plus money, I would rock with those)


Steelers @ Ravens

  • Steelers Trends:
    • 5-11-1 1H O/U
    • 6-11 1H ATS | 11-6 full game ATS
  • Ravens Trends:
    • 13-4 O/U overall
    • 12-5 Team Total O/U


This matchup marks yet another chapter in one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries. Steelers vs. Ravens games have historically been gritty, hard-fought affairs dominated by elite defensive play. While the Ravens’ offense has shined this season, 12-5 Team Total Over, the history between these two teams tells a different story.

Prior to their most recent clash, Steelers/Ravens games had gone under in 8 consecutive meetings. This rivalry thrives on familiarity and physicality, and with both teams having faced off in Week 16, expect defensive adjustments and cautious play-calling early.

The Steelers, true to their DNA, have been slow out of the gates this season, as evidenced by their 5-11-1 1H O/U record. Conversely, the Ravens’ early-game offensive success may hit a snag against a Pittsburgh defense that knows them well.

This game feels like a classic AFC North slugfest: defenses dominating the first half, with offenses struggling to establish rhythm. With Pittsburgh’s 1H struggles and the historical under trends, a 1H Under 22.5 bet feels like the best play.

Pick: Steelers/Ravens 1H Under 22.5

Sunday games will be posted on Saturday. Enjoy!

NFL Week 18: Team Trends

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to NFL Week 18! A poor 0-2 on last week’s newsletter, bringing our released picks to 27-23-2.

As we enter the final week of the regular season, it’s important to tread carefully. This is the time of year when unexpected rotations, surprise scratches, and unpredictable motivation levels can lead to chaos – or as we like to call it, “shenanigans.” Because of this, our focus shifts more toward the playoffs, where the intensity is higher and the data holds stronger value.

With that in mind, there will be no official picks in this week’s article. Instead, we’ll highlight a few key trends to keep on your radar as the regular season winds down. While it may not be the week to dive in headfirst, these insights can still help guide your decision-making or provide useful context for live betting opportunities.

Let’s dive into some notable trends to monitor.


Click here for NFL Week 18 Matchup Pages


NFL Week 18 – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
  • Cowboys: 1-5 ATS as home underdogs
  • Commanders: 4-0 ATS as favorites of 2.5-7
  • Panthers: 12-3-1 1H O/U
  • Bears: 4-12 1H ATS
  • Bills: 13-3 Team Total O/U
  • Titans: 2-13-1 ATS this season
  • Titans: Opponents’ Team Total 12-3-1 O/U
  • Chargers: 6-0 1H and full game ATS as road favorites
  • Dolphins: 3-13 1H Team Total O/U this season
  • Lions: 12-4 1H ATS this season


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Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.8% clip, going 158-120-10 ATS. (8-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 47-32-4 ATS (59.5%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Ravens, Buccaneers, Packers, and Broncos.





Money Baller Christmas Day Report, Dec. 25 

Posted on by Austin Wang

🎄 Welcome to the Christmas Edition of The Money Baller Report! 🎄

We hope you’re having a joyful holiday season filled with family, friends, and relaxation. As we wrap up the year, we want to express our gratitude for your continued support and trust. Your engagement and enthusiasm have made 2024 a fantastic year, and we look forward to bringing you even more success and prosperity in 2025.

Happy Holidays from all of us at The Money Baller – let’s close out the year strong!

Published: Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 8:30 AM CST

Click for NBA Matchup Pages

Click for NFL Matchup Pages

Click to shop memberships – Use coupon code ‘XMAS’ for 50% off your first billing cycle


NFL: Ravens @ Texans

  • Texans: 12-3 1H ATS, 6-9 ATS overall
  • Texans: 5-10 Team Total O/U
  • Ravens: 12-3 O/U
  • Baller System: Playoff rematch unders are in play.

TMB Thoughts: With playoff rematch trends favoring lower scores and the Texans have really struggled with their offense as of late, we’re playing the Under 47 here.

We have nothing meaningful on the Chiefs/Steelers game.


NBA: Spurs @ Knicks

  • Spurs: 10-18-1 1H ATS – Slow starts continue to plague San Antonio, struggling to cover early.
  • Knicks: 9-4 1H ATS as home favorites – Consistently strong out of the gate at Madison Square Garden.
  • TMB Thoughts: Knicks have been a reliable 1H team, and the Spurs’ trends suggest this continues. We like Knicks 1H -5 to take advantage of this early edge.


NBA: Timberwolves @ Mavericks

  • Mavericks: 1-11 O/U holding opponents’ team total as home favorites – Dallas locks down at home, keeping opposing scores low.
  • Timberwolves: 7-21 Team Total O/U – Minnesota has been unreliable offensively all season long.
  • TMB Thoughts: The numbers overwhelmingly point toward the Timberwolves struggling to hit their mark. We’re backing Timberwolves Team Total Under 108, expecting Dallas’ defense to dictate the pace.


NBA: 76ers @ Celtics

  • Sixers: 7-20 1H O/U | 9-21 Team Total O/U – Philadelphia trends heavily towards low-scoring starts and full-game team total unders.
  • TMB Thoughts: While the trends are clear, the line feels sharp. We’re not seeing enough value to confidently back any angle, so this is a stay-away for now.


NBA: Lakers @ Warriors

  • Warriors: 7-21 1H Team Total O/U – Golden State has struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games.
  • TMB Thoughts: Despite the trend, there’s not enough conviction to place a bet. We’re passing on this one.


NBA: Nuggets @ Suns

  • Nuggets: 1-7 ATS as road favorites – Denver has struggled to cover this season, especially as road favorites.
  • Suns: 9-19 ATS | 4-11 ATS at home – Phoenix has been consistently underperformed against market expectations, especially at home.
  • TMB Thoughts: We’re leaning Nuggets -2.5, with a Baller System active on the Nuggets and Devin Booker out for the Suns.

NFL Week 16 Newsletter: Stats, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by Austin Wang

Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 15 Newsletter picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 25-19-2.


NFL Week 16 Newsletter Table of Contents:


Click here for NFL Week 16 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Titans: 2-12 ATS this season
  • Ravens: 11-3 O/U this season
  • Panthers: 10-3-1 1H O/U this season
  • Dolphins: 2-12 1H Team Total O/U this season
  • Texans: 12-2 1H ATS this season (but only 6-8 full game ATS)
  • Steelers: 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Lions: 11-3 1H ATS this season
  • Bears: 4-10 1H ATS this season
  • Browns: 3-11 Team Total O/U this season
  • Bills: 12-2 Team Total O/U this season
  • Bengals: 10-4 O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in L17 games as underdogs.
  • Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.


Not active this week or already passed:

  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
  • Giants: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs
  • Broncos: 10-3-2 1H O/U
  • Chargers: 11-2-2 1H ATS this season
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 3-12 O/U this season.
  • Bears: 0-7 1H ATS on the road this season.
  • Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.



II. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Scoring Trends and Week 15 Recap
Scoring took another dip in Week 15, with games averaging 44.9 points per game (PPG). This marks a noticeable drop from the 47.3 PPG seen in Week 14, reinforcing the downward trajectory as the season heads into its final stretch. The median scoring also reflected this shift, landing at 43.5 points. The season-long scoring average remains at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 15 ended 7-8-1 O/U, showing a slightly under-leaning trend.

Season Trends and Outlook

  • Season-long totals record: 114-106-4 to the over.
  • Week 16 average total: 44.5, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.

While the over has held a slight edge throughout the season, recent weeks indicate a gradual shift toward lower-scoring games, aligning with historical late-season patterns.

Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders

  1. Divisional Familiarity
    As teams meet for the second time in a season, defenses are more prepared for offensive schemes, limiting explosive plays. This often leads to more conservative play-calling and defensive adjustments, keeping scores in check.
  2. Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
    With playoff spots at stake, contenders shift focus to minimizing mistakes. Strategies emphasize ball security and field position over aggressive, high-risk plays, which can naturally lead to lower-scoring affairs.
  3. Weather Conditions
    December football in outdoor stadiums introduces unpredictable weather variables. Cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation can disrupt passing and kicking efficiency, forcing teams to lean on their run games and drain the clock.

Week 16 Takeaways
The combination of reduced scoring and a slightly lower average total for Week 16 signals that oddsmakers are starting to price in these late-season dynamics. Nevertheless, this environment creates opportunities for sharp bettors to identify value, particularly in divisional matchups and games with playoff implications.

Staying ahead of market shifts and recognizing situational factors will be crucial for success in totals betting as the regular season winds down. Focus on weather reports, divisional rivalries, and teams in playoff contention to pinpoint the best under opportunities.



III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 53-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 9-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Lions (vs. Bears) in Week 16.


IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 162-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 11-5 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Broncos (fade the Chargers) in Week 16. (This lost on Thursday Night Football)


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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 155-119-10 ATS. (6-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 46-31-4 ATS (59.7%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Bills -14 this week against the Patriots and Packers -14 against the Saints.







NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Breakdowns



Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Game Breakdown:
The Detroit Lions are in prime position for a bounce-back performance as they face the struggling Chicago Bears. The Bears are facing a challenging set of circumstances, coming off a short week after their Monday Night Football game and already looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football contest. This situational disadvantage is compounded by their return home after three consecutive road games, often a spot associated with letdown performances.

For the Lions, the injury report earlier in the week painted a concerning picture, but the reality has turned out to be less severe. While David Montgomery will sit this game out, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than ready to take on the primary rushing duties. On the other hand, the Bears continue to spiral downward, having lost eight straight games.

Historical Trends Favor the Lions:
Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more who are coming off a loss as home favorites have delivered an impressive 53-22-4 ATS record.

Teams that unexpectedly lose at home as favorites often rebound with focused and dominant performances in their following game. Being listed as road favorites after such a loss indicates confidence from oddsmakers and suggests the potential for a commanding response.

Key Betting Trends:

  • Lions: 11-3 1H ATS (First Half Against the Spread)
  • Bears: 4-10 1H ATS

The Lions’ first-half dominance this season, coupled with the Bears’ struggles, makes this a strong play. Expect Detroit to come out aggressive and build an early lead against a weary Chicago team.

Pick: Lions 1H -3.5


Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks


Two Baller Systems are active on the under for this matchup, highlighting favorable conditions for a low-scoring affair. One system triggers when the market total is substantially lower than average scoring trends, while the other activates for home underdogs who have a Thursday game ahead.

Geno Smith is likely to be less than 100% as he faces a stout Vikings defense (#2 in Defensive DVOA). Both teams are in challenging situational spots – the Vikings are coming off short rest after a Monday Night Football game and have key divisional matchups looming against the Packers and Lions. Similarly, the Seahawks have a Thursday Night Football game on the horizon.

Seattle has consistently hit the under when playing as home underdogs, posting a 4-1 record to the under in those situations. With two strong defensive teams squaring off and situational angles aligning, this game leans heavily towards a lower total.

Pick: Under 42.5


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers have consistently exceeded expectations this season with a 10-4 ATS record. Baker Mayfield continues to lead the charge effectively, and the offense benefits from strong contributions by Bucky Irving, who is confirmed to be available for this matchup. With the Atlanta Falcons close behind in the divisional race, the Buccaneers must maintain their winning momentum.

Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in a less urgent position, as their season is effectively over. Cooper Rush steps in at quarterback, but there is little confidence in his ability to steer the team, especially following an outright win as underdogs. This creates a classic letdown scenario.

Key Betting Trends:

  • Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.
  • Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Expect Tampa Bay to continue their strong form and cover the spread against a Cowboys team with little left to play for.

Pick: Buccaneers -4



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NFL Week 15 Newsletter: Stats, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 15 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 14 Newsletter picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 23-18-2.


NFL Week 15 Newsletter Table of Contents:


Click here for NFL Week 14 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Titans: 2-10-1 ATS this season
  • Bengals: 4-0 ATS as road favorites
  • Giants: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs
  • Ravens: 10-3 O/U this season
  • Panthers: 10-2-1 1H O/U this season
  • Dolphins: 2-11 1H Team Total O/U this season
  • Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
  • Broncos: 10-3 ATS (4-0 ATS as home favorites)
  • Broncos: 10-2-1 1H O/U (4-0 1H O/U as home favorites)
  • Chargers: 10-2-1 1H ATS this season
  • Chargers: 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 2-11 O/U this season.
  • Chargers: 2-8-1 ATS in L11 games as underdogs
  • Steelers: 10-3 ATS this season (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
  • Steelers: 3-9 1H O/U this season
  • Eagles: 4-9 1H O/U this season (1-4 1H O/U at home)
  • Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season
  • Bills: 11-2 Team Total O/U this season
  • Bears: 0-6 1H ATS on the road this season.
  • Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 3-13 ATS in L16 games as underdogs.


Not active this week:

  • Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.



II. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Scoring cooled off slightly in Week 14, with games averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG), a slight dip from Week 13’s 48.4 PPG. The median scoring also reflected this shift at 47 points, compared to the previous week’s elevated scoring pace. The season-long scoring average now stands at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 14 finished 6-7 O/U, highlighting a balanced but slightly under-leaning week.


Season Trends

  • Season-long totals record: 107-98-3 to the over.
  • Week 15 average total: 45.0, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.


Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders

  1. Divisional Familiarity
    Teams meeting for the second time in a season tend to limit explosive plays, leaning into more cautious play-calling and defensive adjustments.
  2. Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
    With playoff spots on the line, contenders often employ conservative strategies, prioritizing ball security and field position over high-risk, high-reward plays.
  3. Weather Conditions
    December games in outdoor stadiums can be heavily influenced by cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation, which impact both passing and kicking efficiency. This can lead to a slower pace and fewer points.


Week 15 Takeaways

The slight decrease in scoring and the lower average total for Week 15 suggest the market is beginning to account for late-season trends. However, these conditions create opportunities for sharp bettors to target potential unders, especially in divisional matchups and games with significant playoff implications.

As the season progresses, staying disciplined and adapting to the evolving scoring environment will be critical for finding value in totals betting. strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.



III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 52-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 8-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Ravens (vs. Giants) in Week 15.


IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 161-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 10-4 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Buccaneers (fade the Chargers) in Week 15.


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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.4% clip, going 154-119-10 ATS. (5-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Ravens -16.5 this week against the Panthers.







NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Breakdowns



Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

The Baltimore Ravens head into their matchup against the New York Giants as double-digit road favorites, and for good reason. This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore to bounce back, backed by favorable trends and situational advantages.

The Ravens come off a bye week with extra rest and preparation, a critical factor as they look to rebound from an poor showing against Philadelphia. Baltimore benefits from a classic Baller System: backing road favorites coming off a loss as home favorites. Historically, teams in this situation have performed well, and the Ravens’ dominant roster and added motivation make them prime candidates to continue that trend.

On the other side, the Giants have all but packed it in for the season. With Tommy DeVito under center, their offense remains among the least effective in the league. The team is seemingly shifting its focus toward rebuilding, with their eyes set on next season and potentially securing a favorable draft position.

A particularly glaring trend works against the Giants: they are 0-7 ATS in the first half as home underdogs. This highlights their inability to compete early in games, a pattern that seems unlikely to change against a rested and motivated Ravens team.

The combination of situational advantages for Baltimore and the Giants’ season-long struggles makes this an appealing spot to back the Ravens early. Ravens 1H is the recommended play, capitalizing on their preparation and the Giants’ consistent first-half woes.

Pick: Ravens 1H -8.5



Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

This game features two of our favorite Baller Systems that both favor the under. The setup presents a strong case for a lower-scoring affair, driven by situational and performance factors for both teams.

The Bengals come into this game off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football. Their thrilling win against Dallas featured a miraculous touchdown after a botched blocked kick, making it an emotionally taxing victory. With a divisional showdown against the Browns looming, Cincinnati may struggle to maintain focus and perform at their best.

Adding to their woes, the Bengals’ defense has been underwhelming and inconsistent, which would typically favor the over. However, Tennessee’s lackluster offense mitigates this concern. The Titans rank 31st in Offensive DVOA, making them one of the least efficient offenses in the league.

The line for this game is particularly revealing and supports a play on the under. Considering the Bengals’ poor scheduling spot, their potential letdown, and Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this game aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. Backing the under is the move in this matchup.


Pick: Under 46.5


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

The Packers enter this matchup with a significant rest advantage, while the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. Seattle is coming off an upset victory against a divisional opponent and now returns home after spending the past two weeks on the road. This situation is often a classic letdown spot, as teams struggle to maintain intensity after emotional road wins.

On the other hand, Green Bay is seeking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Lions. A key Baller System is active here, favoring the Packers:

  • Fade Underdogs After a Game with Two or More Rushing Touchdowns.
    This system highlights the unsustainability of teams relying heavily on the ground game to secure a win. Historical data shows that such performances are unlikely to repeat consistently, especially when injuries impact key contributors.

Seattle’s reliance on the run game becomes even more concerning with Kenneth Walker’s status in question. If Walker is unavailable or limited, the Seahawks’ offense could struggle to replicate their success from the previous game, creating a significant edge for Green Bay. Backing the Packers is the play here.

Pick: Packers -2.5 (-115)



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