Turnover Edge: Thunder rank 1st in turnover rate allowed, while the Blazers are a sloppy 28th in turnover rate.
Mid-Range Dominance: Thunder excel at mid-range shooting (3rd in FG%), while the Blazers struggle defensively in this area (28th in FG% allowed).
3 Baller Systems Active on the Over
TMB Thoughts: The Thunder are in a strong bounce-back spot after a disappointing outright loss to the Mavericks. Their advantage in taking care of the ball and efficient mid-range shooting should be pivotal against a Blazers squad that is struggling defensively and prone to turnovers. On the other hand, the Blazers are in a let-down spot returning home off a three-game road trip off a win. With plenty of systems backing both the Thunder, this is a great spot to trust OKC to rebound. We’re backing the Thunder -14. The Over 226 is another play to consider with 3 systems on the over.
NFL: Bills @ Chiefs
Chiefs in Revenge Spots: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in same-season revenge games since 2019.
Playoff Dominance vs. Bills: Chiefs are 3-0 SU and ATS against the Bills in playoff matchups (2020, 2021, 2023).
Rest Advantage: Chiefs enter this game with a rest advantage.
Historical System: Teams coming off a playoff win as road underdogs with less rest are just 5-24 SU since 2013.
TMB Thoughts: The Chiefs-Bills rivalry adds another chapter in the postseason, marking their fourth playoff clash in five seasons. However, this “rivalry” has been decisively one-sided, with the Chiefs controlling every playoff meeting.
This matchup strongly favors Kansas City. Their success in revenge spots and postseason games against the Bills is undeniable, and their rest advantage sets them up for another commanding performance. Historical trends also highlight the difficulty for teams like the Bills in similar situations.
One of the most exhilarating weekends of the NFL season has arrived, filled with intriguing matchups and compelling storylines. The stakes are higher, the rivalries deeper, and the drama palpable. Let’s dive into two powerful betting angles and break down some key matchups!
Revenge Angle
There’s nothing sweeter than payback. Teams looking to avenge a double-digit loss earlier in a regular season matchup have historically performed well against the spread. These teams boast a 40-25-3 ATS record (61.5%) and games in this situation tend to trend toward the Over (43-25 O/U, 63.2%).
This revenge angle is live this week for the Steelers, Vikings, and Commanders as they seek redemption and a ticket to the next round.
Momentum Angle
Momentum is the lifeblood of playoff success, and road underdogs riding a wave of victory have been money against the spread. Since 2018, road underdogs off a win facing home favorites off a loss are 115-77-2 ATS (59.9%).
This angle points to the Broncos, who carry the momentum of their recent win into hostile territory.
Chargers @ Texans
Texans Trends:
6-11 Team Total O/U
6-11 O/U overall
13-4 1H ATS | 7-10 ATS full game
Chargers Trends:
13-3-1 1H ATS | 13-4 ATS overall
The Texans have leaned heavily on their defense all season, ranking 7th in Defensive DVOA. However, their offensive struggles have been glaring, with the team ranking 26th in yards per play and Offensive DVOA. C.J. Stroud, who dazzled as a rookie, has hit the proverbial sophomore slump, further hampered by the losses of key weapons Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.
Expect the Texans to adopt a run-heavy approach, but even that may not save them against a Chargers defense that excels at getting to the quarterback (4th in sack rate) while the Texans rank 30th in sacks allowed. This mismatch spells trouble for Houston.
Our favorite angle? Texans Team Total under 19.5. The Texans have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last five games, and this slugfest doesn’t seem like the spot for a breakout performance.
Pick: Texans Team Total Under 19.5 (+106, FanDuel)
(Lines are sporadic here. I wouldn’t play a heavily juiced Under 21.5, but if you can find a TT Under 20.5 or 19.5 at plus money, I would rock with those)
Steelers @ Ravens
Steelers Trends:
5-11-1 1H O/U
6-11 1H ATS | 11-6 full game ATS
Ravens Trends:
13-4 O/U overall
12-5 Team Total O/U
This matchup marks yet another chapter in one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries. Steelers vs. Ravens games have historically been gritty, hard-fought affairs dominated by elite defensive play. While the Ravens’ offense has shined this season, 12-5 Team Total Over, the history between these two teams tells a different story.
Prior to their most recent clash, Steelers/Ravens games had gone under in 8 consecutive meetings. This rivalry thrives on familiarity and physicality, and with both teams having faced off in Week 16, expect defensive adjustments and cautious play-calling early.
The Steelers, true to their DNA, have been slow out of the gates this season, as evidenced by their 5-11-1 1H O/U record. Conversely, the Ravens’ early-game offensive success may hit a snag against a Pittsburgh defense that knows them well.
This game feels like a classic AFC North slugfest: defenses dominating the first half, with offenses struggling to establish rhythm. With Pittsburgh’s 1H struggles and the historical under trends, a 1H Under 22.5 bet feels like the best play.
Welcome to NFL Week 18! A poor 0-2 on last week’s newsletter, bringing our released picks to 27-23-2.
As we enter the final week of the regular season, it’s important to tread carefully. This is the time of year when unexpected rotations, surprise scratches, and unpredictable motivation levels can lead to chaos – or as we like to call it, “shenanigans.” Because of this, our focus shifts more toward the playoffs, where the intensity is higher and the data holds stronger value.
With that in mind, there will be no official picks in this week’s article. Instead, we’ll highlight a few key trends to keep on your radar as the regular season winds down. While it may not be the week to dive in headfirst, these insights can still help guide your decision-making or provide useful context for live betting opportunities.
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.8% clip, going 158-120-10 ATS. (8-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 47-32-4 ATS (59.5%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Ravens, Buccaneers, Packers, and Broncos.
🎄 Welcome to the Christmas Edition of The Money Baller Report! 🎄
We hope you’re having a joyful holiday season filled with family, friends, and relaxation. As we wrap up the year, we want to express our gratitude for your continued support and trust. Your engagement and enthusiasm have made 2024 a fantastic year, and we look forward to bringing you even more success and prosperity in 2025.
Happy Holidays from all of us at The Money Baller – let’s close out the year strong!
Published: Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 8:30 AM CST
Baller System: Playoff rematch unders are in play.
TMB Thoughts: With playoff rematch trends favoring lower scores and the Texans have really struggled with their offense as of late, we’re playing the Under 47 here.
We have nothing meaningful on the Chiefs/Steelers game.
NBA: Spurs @ Knicks
Spurs: 10-18-1 1H ATS – Slow starts continue to plague San Antonio, struggling to cover early.
Knicks: 9-4 1H ATS as home favorites – Consistently strong out of the gate at Madison Square Garden.
TMB Thoughts: Knicks have been a reliable 1H team, and the Spurs’ trends suggest this continues. We like Knicks 1H -5 to take advantage of this early edge.
NBA: Timberwolves @ Mavericks
Mavericks: 1-11 O/U holding opponents’ team total as home favorites – Dallas locks down at home, keeping opposing scores low.
Timberwolves: 7-21 Team Total O/U – Minnesota has been unreliable offensively all season long.
TMB Thoughts: The numbers overwhelmingly point toward the Timberwolves struggling to hit their mark. We’re backing Timberwolves Team Total Under 108, expecting Dallas’ defense to dictate the pace.
NBA: 76ers @ Celtics
Sixers: 7-20 1H O/U | 9-21 Team Total O/U – Philadelphia trends heavily towards low-scoring starts and full-game team total unders.
TMB Thoughts: While the trends are clear, the line feels sharp. We’re not seeing enough value to confidently back any angle, so this is a stay-away for now.
NBA: Lakers @ Warriors
Warriors: 7-21 1H Team Total O/U – Golden State has struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games.
TMB Thoughts: Despite the trend, there’s not enough conviction to place a bet. We’re passing on this one.
NBA: Nuggets @ Suns
Nuggets: 1-7 ATS as road favorites – Denver has struggled to cover this season, especially as road favorites.
Suns: 9-19 ATS | 4-11 ATS at home – Phoenix has been consistently underperformed against market expectations, especially at home.
TMB Thoughts: We’re leaning Nuggets -2.5, with a Baller System active on the Nuggets and Devin Booker out for the Suns.
Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 15 Newsletter picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 25-19-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Titans: 2-12 ATS this season
Ravens: 11-3 O/U this season
Panthers: 10-3-1 1H O/U this season
Dolphins: 2-12 1H Team Total O/U this season
Texans: 12-2 1H ATS this season (but only 6-8 full game ATS)
Steelers: 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
Lions: 11-3 1H ATS this season
Bears: 4-10 1H ATS this season
Browns: 3-11 Team Total O/U this season
Bills: 12-2 Team Total O/U this season
Bengals: 10-4 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in L17 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
Not active this week or already passed:
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
Giants: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs
Broncos: 10-3-2 1H O/U
Chargers: 11-2-2 1H ATS this season
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 3-12 O/U this season.
Bears: 0-7 1H ATS on the road this season.
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
II. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring Trends and Week 15 Recap Scoring took another dip in Week 15, with games averaging 44.9 points per game (PPG). This marks a noticeable drop from the 47.3 PPG seen in Week 14, reinforcing the downward trajectory as the season heads into its final stretch. The median scoring also reflected this shift, landing at 43.5 points. The season-long scoring average remains at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 15 ended 7-8-1 O/U, showing a slightly under-leaning trend.
Season Trends and Outlook
Season-long totals record: 114-106-4 to the over.
Week 16 average total: 44.5, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.
While the over has held a slight edge throughout the season, recent weeks indicate a gradual shift toward lower-scoring games, aligning with historical late-season patterns.
Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders
Divisional Familiarity As teams meet for the second time in a season, defenses are more prepared for offensive schemes, limiting explosive plays. This often leads to more conservative play-calling and defensive adjustments, keeping scores in check.
Playoff Contenders Tightening Up With playoff spots at stake, contenders shift focus to minimizing mistakes. Strategies emphasize ball security and field position over aggressive, high-risk plays, which can naturally lead to lower-scoring affairs.
Weather Conditions December football in outdoor stadiums introduces unpredictable weather variables. Cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation can disrupt passing and kicking efficiency, forcing teams to lean on their run games and drain the clock.
Week 16 Takeaways The combination of reduced scoring and a slightly lower average total for Week 16 signals that oddsmakers are starting to price in these late-season dynamics. Nevertheless, this environment creates opportunities for sharp bettors to identify value, particularly in divisional matchups and games with playoff implications.
Staying ahead of market shifts and recognizing situational factors will be crucial for success in totals betting as the regular season winds down. Focus on weather reports, divisional rivalries, and teams in playoff contention to pinpoint the best under opportunities.
III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 53-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 9-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Lions (vs. Bears) in Week 16.
IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 162-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 11-5 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Broncos (fade the Chargers) in Week 16. (This lost on Thursday Night Football)
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 155-119-10 ATS. (6-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 46-31-4 ATS (59.7%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Bills -14 this week against the Patriots and Packers -14 against the Saints.
NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Game Breakdown: The Detroit Lions are in prime position for a bounce-back performance as they face the struggling Chicago Bears. The Bears are facing a challenging set of circumstances, coming off a short week after their Monday Night Football game and already looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football contest. This situational disadvantage is compounded by their return home after three consecutive road games, often a spot associated with letdown performances.
For the Lions, the injury report earlier in the week painted a concerning picture, but the reality has turned out to be less severe. While David Montgomery will sit this game out, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than ready to take on the primary rushing duties. On the other hand, the Bears continue to spiral downward, having lost eight straight games.
Historical Trends Favor the Lions: Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more who are coming off a loss as home favorites have delivered an impressive 53-22-4 ATS record.
Teams that unexpectedly lose at home as favorites often rebound with focused and dominant performances in their following game. Being listed as road favorites after such a loss indicates confidence from oddsmakers and suggests the potential for a commanding response.
Key Betting Trends:
Lions: 11-3 1H ATS (First Half Against the Spread)
Bears: 4-10 1H ATS
The Lions’ first-half dominance this season, coupled with the Bears’ struggles, makes this a strong play. Expect Detroit to come out aggressive and build an early lead against a weary Chicago team.
Pick:Lions 1H -3.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Two Baller Systems are active on the under for this matchup, highlighting favorable conditions for a low-scoring affair. One system triggers when the market total is substantially lower than average scoring trends, while the other activates for home underdogs who have a Thursday game ahead.
Geno Smith is likely to be less than 100% as he faces a stout Vikings defense (#2 in Defensive DVOA). Both teams are in challenging situational spots – the Vikings are coming off short rest after a Monday Night Football game and have key divisional matchups looming against the Packers and Lions. Similarly, the Seahawks have a Thursday Night Football game on the horizon.
Seattle has consistently hit the under when playing as home underdogs, posting a 4-1 record to the under in those situations. With two strong defensive teams squaring off and situational angles aligning, this game leans heavily towards a lower total.
Pick: Under 42.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
The Buccaneers have consistently exceeded expectations this season with a 10-4 ATS record. Baker Mayfield continues to lead the charge effectively, and the offense benefits from strong contributions by Bucky Irving, who is confirmed to be available for this matchup. With the Atlanta Falcons close behind in the divisional race, the Buccaneers must maintain their winning momentum.
Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in a less urgent position, as their season is effectively over. Cooper Rush steps in at quarterback, but there is little confidence in his ability to steer the team, especially following an outright win as underdogs. This creates a classic letdown scenario.
Key Betting Trends:
Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Expect Tampa Bay to continue their strong form and cover the spread against a Cowboys team with little left to play for.
Welcome to the NFL Week 15 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 14 Newsletter picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 23-18-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Titans: 2-10-1 ATS this season
Bengals: 4-0 ATS as road favorites
Giants: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs
Ravens: 10-3 O/U this season
Panthers: 10-2-1 1H O/U this season
Dolphins: 2-11 1H Team Total O/U this season
Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
Broncos: 10-3 ATS (4-0 ATS as home favorites)
Broncos: 10-2-1 1H O/U (4-0 1H O/U as home favorites)
Chargers: 10-2-1 1H ATS this season
Chargers: 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 2-11 O/U this season.
Chargers: 2-8-1 ATS in L11 games as underdogs
Steelers: 10-3 ATS this season (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
Steelers: 3-9 1H O/U this season
Eagles: 4-9 1H O/U this season (1-4 1H O/U at home)
Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season
Bills: 11-2 Team Total O/U this season
Bears: 0-6 1H ATS on the road this season.
Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 3-13 ATS in L16 games as underdogs.
Not active this week:
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
II. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring cooled off slightly in Week 14, with games averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG), a slight dip from Week 13’s 48.4 PPG. The median scoring also reflected this shift at 47 points, compared to the previous week’s elevated scoring pace. The season-long scoring average now stands at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 14 finished 6-7 O/U, highlighting a balanced but slightly under-leaning week.
Season Trends
Season-long totals record: 107-98-3 to the over.
Week 15 average total: 45.0, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.
Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders
Divisional Familiarity Teams meeting for the second time in a season tend to limit explosive plays, leaning into more cautious play-calling and defensive adjustments.
Playoff Contenders Tightening Up With playoff spots on the line, contenders often employ conservative strategies, prioritizing ball security and field position over high-risk, high-reward plays.
Weather Conditions December games in outdoor stadiums can be heavily influenced by cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation, which impact both passing and kicking efficiency. This can lead to a slower pace and fewer points.
Week 15 Takeaways
The slight decrease in scoring and the lower average total for Week 15 suggest the market is beginning to account for late-season trends. However, these conditions create opportunities for sharp bettors to target potential unders, especially in divisional matchups and games with significant playoff implications.
As the season progresses, staying disciplined and adapting to the evolving scoring environment will be critical for finding value in totals betting. strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.
III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 52-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 8-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Ravens (vs. Giants) in Week 15.
IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 161-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 10-4 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Buccaneers (fade the Chargers) in Week 15.
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.4% clip, going 154-119-10 ATS. (5-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Ravens -16.5 this week against the Panthers.
NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
The Baltimore Ravens head into their matchup against the New York Giants as double-digit road favorites, and for good reason. This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore to bounce back, backed by favorable trends and situational advantages.
The Ravens come off a bye week with extra rest and preparation, a critical factor as they look to rebound from an poor showing against Philadelphia. Baltimore benefits from a classic Baller System: backing road favorites coming off a loss as home favorites. Historically, teams in this situation have performed well, and the Ravens’ dominant roster and added motivation make them prime candidates to continue that trend.
On the other side, the Giants have all but packed it in for the season. With Tommy DeVito under center, their offense remains among the least effective in the league. The team is seemingly shifting its focus toward rebuilding, with their eyes set on next season and potentially securing a favorable draft position.
A particularly glaring trend works against the Giants: they are 0-7 ATS in the first half as home underdogs. This highlights their inability to compete early in games, a pattern that seems unlikely to change against a rested and motivated Ravens team.
The combination of situational advantages for Baltimore and the Giants’ season-long struggles makes this an appealing spot to back the Ravens early. Ravens 1H is the recommended play, capitalizing on their preparation and the Giants’ consistent first-half woes.
Pick: Ravens 1H -8.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
This game features two of our favorite Baller Systems that both favor the under. The setup presents a strong case for a lower-scoring affair, driven by situational and performance factors for both teams.
The Bengals come into this game off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football. Their thrilling win against Dallas featured a miraculous touchdown after a botched blocked kick, making it an emotionally taxing victory. With a divisional showdown against the Browns looming, Cincinnati may struggle to maintain focus and perform at their best.
Adding to their woes, the Bengals’ defense has been underwhelming and inconsistent, which would typically favor the over. However, Tennessee’s lackluster offense mitigates this concern. The Titans rank 31st in Offensive DVOA, making them one of the least efficient offenses in the league.
The line for this game is particularly revealing and supports a play on the under. Considering the Bengals’ poor scheduling spot, their potential letdown, and Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this game aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. Backing the under is the move in this matchup.
Pick: Under 46.5
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Packers enter this matchup with a significant rest advantage, while the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. Seattle is coming off an upset victory against a divisional opponent and now returns home after spending the past two weeks on the road. This situation is often a classic letdown spot, as teams struggle to maintain intensity after emotional road wins.
On the other hand, Green Bay is seeking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Lions. A key Baller System is active here, favoring the Packers:
Fade Underdogs After a Game with Two or More Rushing Touchdowns. This system highlights the unsustainability of teams relying heavily on the ground game to secure a win. Historical data shows that such performances are unlikely to repeat consistently, especially when injuries impact key contributors.
Seattle’s reliance on the run game becomes even more concerning with Kenneth Walker’s status in question. If Walker is unavailable or limited, the Seahawks’ offense could struggle to replicate their success from the previous game, creating a significant edge for Green Bay. Backing the Packers is the play here.
Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 2 picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 21-18-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
Panthers: 9-2-1 1H O/U this season.
Titans: 2-9-1 ATS this season.
Chargers: 10-1-1 1H ATS this season.
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-11 O/U this season.
Chargers: 1-8-1 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
Bears: 0-5 1H ATS on the road this season.
Bills: 10-2 Team Total O/U this season.
Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 3-12 ATS in L15 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
Not active this week:
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
Chargers: 8-1 ATS as favorites this season.
Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season.
II. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring has been on an upward trend for the third consecutive week, with Week 13 games averaging 48.4 points per game (PPG). This marks an increase from 47.7 PPG in Week 12 and 46.8 PPG in Week 11. However, this rise is slightly skewed by high-scoring games like Steelers vs. Bengals (82 points) and Broncos vs. Browns (73 points). Excluding these outliers, the median scoring sits at 46 PPG, revealing the average is somewhat inflated. The season-long scoring average has now ticked up to 45.6 PPG.
Totals betting in Week 13 ended 7-8 O/U, a mixed result that reflects this upward scoring trend but hints at potential shifts in Week 14.
Season Trends and Week 14 Outlook
Season-long totals record: 101-91-3 to the over.
Week 14 average total: 45.4, consistent with season-long scoring.
Despite the recent scoring spike, historical trends suggest a late-season shift toward lower-scoring games. This is often driven by divisional familiarity, more conservative game plans for playoff contenders, and weather impacts.
Strategies for Betting Totals in Week 14
Target Inflated Totals: Higher lines stemming from recent scoring surges may create value for unders, especially where pace, weather, or situational factors point to fewer points.
Focus on Pace and Red Zone Efficiency: Teams playing at slower paces or with struggles in the red zone are prime under candidates.
Monitor Weather Conditions: Early forecasts can reveal opportunities for unders before the market reacts.
Key Takeaways
As Week 14 approaches, disciplined bettors can capitalize on potential market inefficiencies caused by scoring trends. Late-season dynamics—such as familiarity, playoff implications, and unpredictable weather—make unders an appealing strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.
III. Fading home teams off an OT win
One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 55-32-4 record (63.2% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.
This trend has gone 4-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Buccaneers (play on the Raiders +6.5) in Week 14.
IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Bengals (vs. Cowboys) in Week 14.
V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 160-108-3 ATS (59.7%). Backing this has gone 9-4 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Seahawks (fade the Cardinals) in Week 14.
VI. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 154-118-10 ATS. (5-3 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Eagles -13.5 this week against the Panthers.
NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
The Seattle Seahawks enter this pivotal NFC West clash with momentum over the Arizona Cardinals. With two Baller Systems pointing in their favor, here’s why we’re taking the Seahawks to cover as underdogs:
Baller System: Fading Home Favorites Off a Loss Arizona suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Vikings in their previous outing, a classic setup for fading teams in this spot.
Baller System:Backing Divisional Dogs Who Dominate the Matchup Seattle has won the last two head-to-head matchups against Arizona, indicating they’ve figured out how to handle this divisional rival. This confidence should carry over into this crucial game.
Seahawks Road Resilience Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, proving their ability to deliver away from home. Conversely, the Cardinals are returning home after two road games over the Thanksgiving stretch—a situation that often results in mental and physical fatigue.
Momentum and Playoff Implications The Seahawks are riding a three-game win streak and come into this matchup motivated, knowing the impact it has on the divisional playoff picture. While the Cardinals might argue it’s a revenge spot, Seattle’s recent form and cohesion give me more confidence.
Kenneth Walker’s Availability and Depth Even with Kenneth Walker listed as questionable, the Seahawks can rely on Zach Charbonnet, a capable backup who can carry the load if needed.
Seattle’s well-rounded performance and mental edge in recent matchups make them the smart play here. I would try to find a Seahawks +3 (-115 or better) but would also take Seahawks +2.5 if that is your best option.
Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
This Week 14 matchup sets up favorably for the Bengals, supported by two key Baller Systems and strong situational trends:
1. Road Favorites Off a Loss
Road favorites of 2.5+ points, coming off a home loss as favorites, sport a 51-22-4 ATS record since 2018, including 7-3 ATS this season. This reflects the strong bounce-back potential of teams favored on the road after an unexpected setback. Cincinnati fits the profile, signaling a confident rebound opportunity.
2. Favorites After High-Turnover Games
Teams coming off turnover-heavy games tend to rebound with a better focus on ball security. The Bengals’ offense remains highly efficient despite recent defensive struggles, making them reliable in this spot.
3. Favorable Matchup Context
Cowboys Offensive Struggles: Ranked 27th in Offensive DVOA, Dallas lacks the firepower to exploit Cincinnati’s defensive lapses.
Line Confidence: The Bengals are -5 favorites despite a worse record, indicating trust from the market in their potential to dominate. Cincinnati has faced a rough schedule in the last few weeks, and should be able to bounce back against the lowly Cowboys.
