Tag: mlb

Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Friday, August 9

Time: 5:07 PM ET

In tonight’s highlighted matchup, we are heading north of the border at Rogers Centre for a game between the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. Mitch Spence will take the hill for Oakland and the Jays will send Jose Berrios

Spence’s performance as an away underdog has been dismal, with a record of 1-4 in such situations. His struggles are exacerbated when coming off games where he throws 90+ pitches, holding a 1-6 record in those scenarios. This suggests that Spence tends to wear down, making him vulnerable in his following start. Additionally, his road ERA stands at 5.22, significantly higher than his home ERA of 3.86. His peripheral stats are also concerning, as he ranks in the 18th percentile for barrel rate, 22nd percentile for exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. These numbers indicate that hitters are making solid contact against him, especially on the road.

Berrios has been a reliable force for the Blue Jays, particularly when playing at home. As a home favorite, he boasts a 7-2 record, and when facing teams with a losing record, he’s even more dominant with an 8-1 record. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home, compared to a much less impressive 5.29 ERA on the road. Moreover, Berrios has had the Athletics’ number, winning his last five starts against them dating back to 2021.

The Blue Jays have been hot offensively at home, ranking 7th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. On the other hand, the Athletics have been one of the worst teams in these categories, ranking 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers on the road during the same period. The Athletics are also the 4th worst scoring team and rank 5th worst in run defense on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.

Given the clear pitching advantage with Berrios, the Blue Jays’ recent offensive success at home, and the Athletics’ struggles both offensively and defensively on the road, the Blue Jays’ moneyline (-155) looks like a strong play. Berrios’ track record against the Athletics and Spence’s poor performance trends only solidify the confidence in this bet.

Back the Blue Jays to take care of business at home tonight.

• Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
• Start Time: 5:07 PM ET

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an interesting matchup. These teams just faced off in Baltimore a week ago where the Orioles won the series 3-1. Can the Blue Jays get their revenge at home?

Grayson Rodriguez vs. Chris Bassitt

Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for the Orioles, bringing with him an ERA of 3.86, but an xERA of 3.74, signaling that he’s due for some positive regression. Rodriguez has a potent fastball, which he elevates 62% of the time, 2nd most in the league. This is a significant advantage as Blue Jays hitters have struggled with elevated fastballs, slugging just .310, the 4th worst in MLB. Additionally, 90% of Rodriguez’s fastballs clock in at 95 mph or greater, and the Blue Jays have a poor .342 slugging percentage against pitches of this velocity, ranking 5th worst in the league.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled this season, particularly in the last 30th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), and barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Bassitt’s hard-hit percentage allowed is a relatively modest 31.9%. However, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been a weak point, with relievers allowing a slugging percentage of .445, the worst in MLB. Bassitt has rarely made it past the sixth inning in July, so expect Toronto’s shaky relief corps to play a significant role tonight.

Orioles’ offensive firepower

Baltimore’s offense has been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road, ranking 1st in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Their hitters lead the league with a hard-hit rate of 44%, and they’ll be looking to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ pitching vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ bats have been less impressive, sitting at 16th and 15th in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home.

The Orioles’ prowess extends to facing relief pitchers, where they lead MLB with a .442 slugging percentage. With Bassitt unlikely to go deep into the game, Baltimore’s lineup should see ample success against a struggling Blue Jays bullpen.

Player to watch: Ryan O’Hearn

One of the key players for the Orioles tonight might be Ryan O’Hearn. He has a remarkable OPS of 1.445 in nine at-bats against Bassitt over the last two seasons. O’Hearn thrives against cutters, which is Bassitt’s second-most thrown pitch at 20.1%. With a batting average of .400 and a fly ball rate of 47.8% against cutters, O’Hearn could go yard.

Betting side

Given the Orioles’ offensive strength, especially against right-handed pitching and relief pitchers, they are a solid bet to cover the -1.5 run-line (+110, consensus line). Additionally, O’Hearn is a player to target for player props, considering his favorable matchup against Bassitt and his success against cutters.

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

• Date: Monday, August 5, 2024
• Game: San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
• Start Time: 4:45 PM ET

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

Tonight’s game at Nationals Park features a compelling matchup as the San Francisco Giants take on the Washington Nationals. With Logan Webb pitching for the Giants and Patrick Corbin taking the mound for the Nationals, the game sets up favorably for San Francisco, particularly given the recent performances and season-long trends of both teams.

Pitching Matchup: Webb vs. Corbin

Logan Webb has been a reliable force for the Giants, with a strong track record against struggling teams. Since 2021, Webb has gone 9-2 straight up (SU) against non-divisional opponents with a losing record who send a starting pitcher with an ERA above 5.00 on the mound. Tonight, he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers at home this season. Furthermore, Washington’s hitters have been making weak contact recently, ranking 26th in hard contact rate against righties over the last 14 days.

Webb’s pitch arsenal, which includes a heavy dose of changeups (37%), sinkers (36%), and sliders (22%), aligns well against a Nationals lineup that struggles with these pitches. Specifically, Washington ranks 22nd, 18th, and 25th, respectively, in runs above average against Webb’s primary offerings.

On the other side, Patrick Corbin has endured a tough season, with metrics placing him among the league’s worst. Corbin is in the bottom fifth percentile for expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. The Giants, who rank seventh in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers on the road this season, are well-equipped to take advantage of Corbin’s struggles. Moreover, Corbin has gone 1-8 SU this season against teams with a winning percentage above .480 when their starting pitcher has an ERA below 4.00.

Corbin’s pitch mix includes sliders (36%), sinkers (34%), four-seam fastballs (14%), and cutters (11%). The Giants have performed well against these pitches, ranking eighth, third, 17th, and 21st, respectively, in runs above average. San Francisco’s hitters have also been making solid contact lately, ranking second in hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days.

Prediction: Giants to Secure the Win

The Giants’ offense has been potent against left-handed pitching, and tonight’s game provides another opportunity to showcase their strength.

Webb’s effectiveness against struggling lineups and the Giants’ strong offensive numbers against left-handers point to a decisive advantage. Meanwhile, Corbin’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ weak offensive output make it challenging to foresee a different outcome.

Betting on the Giants ML (-165, BetMGM) to win appears to be a solid choice, as they aim to continue their success against a reeling Nationals team.

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game, featuring one BALLER SYSTEM active.

Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

Hello Ballers! What a great weekend and an incredible run – the Cubs/Cardinals under and Twins (however you chose to play them) got there. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites | Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts | White Sox: 20 consecutive losses
  • The Athletics have been performing exceptionally well as home favorites. JP Sears has shown solid performance recently with a 3.7 ERA and a 3.95 ERA over the last 30 days, with one poor outing against the Astros as an outlier. This may seem like a straightforward pick, but the indicators clearly favor the Athletics to play on the run-line or include them as a parlay piece.
    
    
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over | L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
  • Logan Allen is making his first start since July 6. His season-long stats are concerning, with a 5.67 ERA and 5.45 FIP, and there may be rust coming into play against the Diamondbacks’ hot offense. The over seems to be a strong play here.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Cardinals: 13-4 NRFI as a home underdog.
• Cardinals: 14-3 RL (+1.5) as a home underdog.
• In L30 days, Mets: 19-5 NRFI.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’
  
  
  
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over.
• L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

• Marlins: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘4’ as an underdog.
• Marlins: 0-4 F5 ML as home underdogs when Roddery Munoz starts.
• Reds: 0-4-1 F5 ML when Nick Martinez starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 9-2-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

• Nationals: 6-15-1 F5 ML and 6-16 ML when Patrick Corbin starts.
• Nationals: 29-12 NRFI as home underdogs.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

• Twins: 15-6 ML as road favorites vs. RHP.
• Baller System active to play on Twins: Back team off a win when they used a lot of pitchers (lower-volume variation)

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

• Rangers: 6-15 ML when Andrew Heaney starts.
• In L30 days, Rangers: 14-6-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Astros: 0-7 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

• Royals: 7-1 ML as home favorites when Brady Singer starts.
• Royals: 1-6-1 F5 O/U as home favorites when Singer starts.

Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites.
• Athletics: 5-14-2 F5 O/U when JP Sears starts.
• Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox: 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts.
• White Sox: lost 20 consecutive games.
  

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Phillies: 15-3-4 F5 ML when Aaron Nola starts.
• Dodgers: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)