Category: Game Analysis

Breanna Stewart played just 3 minutes against The Sparks on the 2nd night of Liberty’s back-to-back. This was unfortunate timing, as Brondello mentioned pregame that she’d “love to lower Stewie’s minutes. She’s one of the hardest ones. The plan is to lower all their minutes when we move forward and get all our players… our depth, we trust them”.

Stewart is joining the team for their 4 game road trip, yet “the team plans to give her time to fully recover” (x/ Madeline Kenney). Jonquel Jones is currently the key piece that is returning from a month-long ankle injury, yet did get up to 28 minutes against The Sparks. I would assume that Brondello ideally would not have ran her that much in two straight games, yet LA’s offense comes with a lot of size, which will remain true for this upcoming matchup of Dallas.

This is the first meeting between these two, despite being into the 2nd half of the year.

The Wings are 1-7 now with their new lineup that consists of a Yueru/Geiselsoder frontcourt, and have given up the third most OPP PITP in that span at 38.3. The Aces just scored 106 points against Dallas, yet scored 64 of those points from deep or the charity stripe. Dallas has given up the 2nd most OPP FGM (31.6), while playing at the fastest PACE in the league despite the objectively slower lineup. This game should be ultra fast, as The Liberty is the fastest PACE in the L30 days.

Expecting a very similar game as NYL v LAS, which was also two Top 3 PACE squads. LA just secured 37 rebounds along with 24 assists, as NYL has been a consistently poor RA unit. POAs and bigs have all thrived:
– Plum 12 RA | Allemand 16 RA | Azura/Hamby 10+ Reb
– Alyssa Thomas 21 RA | Satou 8 RA (22min)
– Boston 18 RA | McDonald 10 RA
– Gray 11 RA | Canada 14 RA

The Liberty as a team average the fewest OREB per game at just 7 per one, so whoever is expected to lead sets and crash rebounds generally can get them uncontested. DiJonai Carrington is a good candidate, and finally saw 30 minutes after she was out for over a month due to a rib contusion. With over 22 minutes, she has notched 6.8 RPG since the start of June.

McCowan notched 10 rebounds in the third quarter alone, notching her first double-double of the season. By this point last season, she had already notched 7 double-doubles. I doubt that this alone will earn her more run, as the last time she played big minutes was against PHX (9pt-10r, 22min), to which the next three games were all single digit minutes.

Sabrina Ionescu will be hounded defensively by JJ Quinerly, who isn’t a pure lockdown defender but certainly qualifies as a pest. With DiJonai Carrington in the mix as well, I would expect a lot of traps on Ionescu with The Liberty depleted.

Tina Charles last season didn’t even play a back-to-back, and the only one she did this year was just 15 minutes of action (in a close game against PHX as well). She produced just 2 points and 7 PRA in these minutes. She also was questionable yesterday against The Valks due to an illness, which could be pestering today.

However, if a minutes restriction is not in store for Charles, she has killed this Seattle team twice this season with back to back 20 point double-doubles. Subsequently, she should definitely be in store to face doubles today, yet that won’t keep her off the glass. SEA currently notches the fewest OREB in the league as a team, thus surrendering the most OPP RPG in their L10 games (39).

I am actually expecting Mabrey to sit out this game due to how long she was out with the hyperextended knee injury.

Despite The Valkyries only managing 64 points against Connecticut, it was more of a testimate to their complete depleted roster rather than any defensive improvements to The Sun’s defense. Morrow did draw the start over Nelson-Ododa last game.

Gabby Williams has notched a 20.3% usage in the first half in their L5 games, falling to 15% in the 2nd. This notably includes the last game vs WSH, where she had a 22% in the first half, then a literal 0% in 7 minutes of the 2nd due to poor shooting. It makes 1H stronger because she won’t test her shot in the second unless a quality first comes. She has notched 5, 1 and 4 FTM in the three games vs CON (100%) and 11/L15 games.

Gabby joined the rest of the Storm facilitating trio with 12 potentials per game vs CON. Wheeler had 11.5 as well, while Diggins averaged 11. Wheeler has played 15.3 MPG vs CON in their L2, along with 13+ in (at least) 5 straight games. 29/30 players to notch 13+ 1H minutes vs CON in their L10 games has also had at least 10 1H FS, no matter their usage.

Until that changes, I have no reason to not take any player at this mark. CON remains ranking B3 in DRTG, OPP 3PA, OPP FTM, OPP APG

Welcome back to a WNBA Weekend, with five games and a ton of implications. Here is the schedule:
GSV @ CON | 11:00 AM ET
IND @ CHI | 2:00 PM CT
LV @ DAL | 3:00 PM CT
PHX @ WSH | 4:00 PM ET
ATL @ MIN | 6:00 PM CT

We will start in Connecticut. The Valkyries suffered a devastating loss to their All Star Kayla Thornton, who is out for the year after a successful knee surgery. To further hinder their frontcourt depth, Monique Billings is also ruled out again due to an ankle injury. Last game, this left Janelle Salaun to lead the team in FGA at 14. This tracks, as Salaun currently boasts a team-high 27.6% usage rate when on the floor with Burton while Billings/Thornton are off.

Iliana Rupert, who was a part of French national team with Salaun, made her Valkyrie debut last game. She has experience with Nakase as they won a championship together for Las Vegas in 2022. Her connection with Salaun makes it so she isn’t really a threat to Janelle’s minutes, rather to the other limited depth in Fagbenle and Amihere.

Connecticut’s defense has allowed the most Paint Pts on the year (38.3 per game) and in their L10 games (39.4). In their L5 games alone, the leaders in PITP against them have been:
– PF Natasha Howard | 16 PITP
– PF Dearica Hamby | 15 PITP/gp
– C Ezi Magbegor | 12 PITP
– G Kelsey Plum | 11 PITP/gp
– G Kelsey Mitchell | 12 PITP

Really anyone that can slash can thrive, as CON has surrendered the most Pts to both Guards and Centers in the ten game stretch. The Sun have also ranked in the bottom three at limiting OPP APG (13th), OPP RPG (12th) and OPP 3PA (11th) in this same span – horrific defense.

Burton is another player that should post some high usage here, having complete control of the offense. Coming off an 0-7 shooting performance, which is unlikely to repeat against this soft matchup. In just 24 minutes last time these two faced, Burton notched 14 potential assists, yet somehow converted just 2 of them despite the massive Golden State victory.

Lastly, in the same on/off sample we used for Salaun, Hayes has averaged 1.35 Pts per Poss – higher than every other player outside of Rupert in her limited minutes. She was pacing for double-digit potentials herself after 27 minutes played, and defensively is in great rebound position off of Jacy Sheldon. As CON has allowed the most RPG in their L10 games, this has also come as the most rebounds to guards, where specific Sheldon defenders have thrived such as Williams with 9 & Clark with 8.

Granted, Sheldon didn’t start last game for CON, yet Allemand notched 8 rebounds off of Bria Hartley.

Mabrey returned to the Sun lineup last game after hyperextending her knee, and actually beat out her quoted minutes projection of “20-25 minutes” (played 26). She was still rusty nonetheless, shooting just 2/12 from the field. Her success is pivotal if CON wants any chance at winning this game, as The Valks have given up by far the most OPP 3PA per game on the season (27.5) and in their L10 games (29).

Typically the 3PA they surrender is not to opposing POA’s (Point-of-Attack), rather is from the player they choose to “sacrifice” in order to double inside action. Dallas got up 26 3PA last game, while Yueru and Geiselsoder combined for 8 of those attempts. The game before SEA got up 27, with Nneka notching 7 & Wheeler with 8. Mercury told the same story, with Westbeld seeing 8 and Akani supporting at 6.

Tomorrow likely sees some increased perimeter action from Lacan and Rivers, but that team is actively a revolving door in minutes.

Golden State has only been allowing that many threes due to their intent on locking down the paint; This defense has allowed the fewest PITP all season long – likely a bad story for Tina Charles; Charles notched just 9 points in her 20 minutes last meeting. However, her usage has soared to 28.3% in her last 5 games, which is 3% higher than when she won MVP over a decade ago – with 17.4 FGA per game in this span.

When Tina has seen 13+ FGA this season, she has notched 16 or more points in 14/15 games, along with all 10 games since the start of June (21.3 PPG).

IND @ CHI
No Atkins for Chicago, while Reese is battling a back injury. On Indiana end, Caitlin Clark remains out after reaggravating her groin.

Chicago without Reese is horrible, losing both games without her by 37 and 38 points a piece. This offense has been the biggest problem, failing to cross 20 points in any of the 8 quarters. Chicago has posted a sub 90 ORTG with Atkins and Reese off the court individually, yet with both off this falls further to under 80 (was 72.2 last game).

Natasha Howard has gone over 12.5 Pts in 10 straight games with >25 minutes on the court, while being 8/9 on the year when also facing a below average DRTG. Howard played 18 1H minutes last game against The Aces, and White seemingly drastically tightened the rotation as Boston, Cunningham and Mitchell all played that high of an early load as well.

In first halves with 13+ minutes played against those below average defenses, she has notched (L30 days):
– 7 Pts, 7 Reb, 1 Steal vs LVA (18.4 FP)
– 12 Pts, 7 Reb, 2 Stock vs CON (25.4 FP)
– 13 Pts, 1 Reb vs DAL (14.2 FP)
– 8 Pts, 7 RA, 1 Block vs LAS (19 FP)
– 10 Pts, 7 RA, 1 STL vs LVA (21 FP)
– 6 Pts, 11 RA, 1 STL vs DAL (21.1 FP)

You get it, and Howard has not fallen up 13 1H minutes in any game overall in this stretch.

LV @ DAL
Paige Bueckers is resting for this game – seems Dallas is starting to prioritize their 2026 draft. Meanwhile, The Aces just keep dropping games, now falling below the .500 mark after losing by 31 points to Minnesota. I begin to wonder how long The Aces can give Loyd extended run, as she shot 0-10 last game in addition to her 5 fouls. Since their championship run, the issue with Las Vegas has always been their lack of depth, yet Evans and Nye are good contenders to take her minutes.

The Aces just surrendered 109 points in regulation, which is the most points a team has let up this season. In their L5 games, the only team worse in DRTG has been Chicago, yet The Aces given up the most OPP 3PM in that span. With Bueckers out, Arike Ogunbowale has shot just 13 times per 30 minutes, which is not only lower than her season average of 14.4, but also far lower than when she was the lone star last season and shot almost 20 times per game.

Regardless of this, Arike has loved to get her shots up against Las Vegas, shooting 12, 17, 17, 13 and 23 times against them since the start of last season. Now, she faces an Aces team that gives up the most FGA to guards in their L10 games. We’re seen these figures:
– Paige 24 FGA / Quinerly 14
– Sabrina 23 FGA
– Mitchell 21 FGA/gp
– Gray 16 FGA
– Sykes 15 FGA

Can also add on Courtney Williams and her 23 points in her limited blowout minutes. Granted, Arike is posting her lowest FG% of her career this season at just 36.1%. Would argue that she also lost them the last game against Golden State. Personally, I am more intrigued by the DAL rookie duo of Aziaha James (drafted 1st round alongside NC State teammate Saniya Rivers) and JJ Quinerly.

Quinerly notched 5 steals alongside her 17 Points and 9 RA last game vs Las Vegas.

The Aces entire offense is now A’ja Wilson, who provided exactly what they needed the prior matchup with 37 Pts and 25 FGA. The Dallas double-big lineup is 1-6, and in that span have surrendered the 2nd most OPP PITP per game at 39.7. They have posted a B3 defensive rating, while surrendering the most Fastbreak Pts. All of their problems are derived from the lack of speed in this frontcourt of Yueru and Geiselsoder.

A’ja threw up 26 PITP, while Howard, Ogwumike, Boston, Thomas and Reese all notched double-digit points against Dallas in this lineup’s life. Ideally, A’ja would be supported by Jackie Young in a paint duel, yet Jackie has not been the same since her hip injury suffered after her 30 point game against Golden State. She has not scored 20 or more points in the four games since then, including just 2 points against Dallas.

Dallas has surrendered the most backcourt rebounds with this lineup as well, most recently shown by Burton’s 9 rebounds. On offense, the big duo of DAL spends a lot of their sets out on the perimeter, pulling opposing bigs into high action sets. Of course, this only limits opposing bigs from getting theirs if those two can hit their shots. Loyd, Smith and A’ja all got 8+ rebounds in the prior head-to-head.

PHX @ WSH
Phoenix is leaving this All-Star break playing every other day for 8 games straight, with The Mystics marking their third. Washington will likely be as fatigued as Phoenix is, given this is the 2nd game of their back-to-back. The hard limit remains for Sabally and Copper, both failing to cross 24 minutes in the two games thus far since their injury.

The Mystics typical defensive strategy is to force defenses inside, with high pressure on opposing guards, which has generated ultra low 3PA:
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 2 3PA
– Plum 6 3PA | Allemand 1
– Plum 5 3PA | Allemand 3 | Rickea 2
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 1
– Chelsea 2 3PA | Jackie 2

The top threat for Phoenix has been Sami Whitcomb, who has shot 7+ 3PA in all 6 games when playing alongside Copper/Satou/Thomas.

After Ogwumike’s 18 points, Washington continues to get beaten up inside at the expense of their high pressure. Hamby notched 25 PPG, followed by Rickea at 22 PPG, Azura at 15 PPG and Magbegor with 13.5 PPG all in Washingtons last 5 games. Alyssa Thomas, or Satou Sabally, can both succeed inside.

The Mystics are going to be playing back-to-back poor rebounding teams, coming off Seattle yesterday. The Storm allow the 2nd most OPP RPG in their L10 games, and Austin/Iriafen both notched double-digit rebounds. Now, they face The Mercury who have allowed the most in that span, along with 28.8 OPP RPG in their L5 games. The success has come from bigs:
– A’ja 18 Reb, Jones 11 Reb, Billings 9 Reb (19min), Shepard 8 Reb (17min), Griner 8 Reb (25min)

Citron has felt like she has had increased on-ball usage lately, especially as she has averaged 5 assists over her last 3 games, which is double her season average. She had 5 potentials to Austin alone last game, ending the game at 8 potentials after 10 and 9 the game before.

ATL @ MIN
The Lynx are 14-0 at home this season, and they have another chance to extend this streak against The Dream. At home this season, they have an astounding DRTG of 90.2. Here, they have allowed the fewest fastbreak points (7.1), free throw attempts (14.7) and generated the most opponent turnovers (16.2).

Atlanta has been beaten by PnR all season long, ranking 9th against the Roller and 13th against the Ball Handler. Luckily for Minnesota, their duo of Williams and Collier run the PnR at the highest rate in the entire league. When facing The Lynx, ATL had a clear choice of either defending Williams midrange (16 FGA) or dropping to defend Collier inside – typically choosing the latter. However, Collier could still thrive through the ‘Pick-and-Pop’, where she notched 6 3PA while just 3 of her 18 total FGA were directly at the rim.

Williams ended this game with 14 potential assists, and has o20.5 PA in 11/12 games this season with 12+ FGA and against a non-T4 PnR Handler defense.

We have three games hosted by bottom 500 teams:
LVA @ IND | 6:00 PM CT
LAS @ CON | 5:00 PM ET
SEA @ CHI | 7:30 PM CT

The Fever just played, and lost, back to back games against the Liberty – split by the All-Star game. Both Indiana and their opponent, Las Vegas, have been beaten by the same thing: Guards. In their L10 games, each of these squads have surrendered Top 3 opposing guard FGA. The Aces have been by far the worst in this regard, allowing 44.3 OPP Guard FGA per game, which continued on from The Dream as Gray and Canada combined for 29 FGA. Other success has been Paige notching 23 FGA, Sabrina with 23, Mitchell with 18 and Sykes with 15 in this span; This is pretty much all of the high volume guards, as the other teams to face them were CON (x2), GSV and PHX.

Kelsey Mitchell has notched 20+ Pts in 5 straight meetings against Las Vegas, while sinking 3+ 3PM in every meeting since the start of last season. Aari McDonald has also had The Aces’ number, with 16 & 23 points last season while being on The Sparks. Last game, McDonald also commanded control of the offense with 6 assists off of 13 potentials – her highest count since she faced Las Vegas

On Aces’ side we’ve seen Jackie Young have potentially her lowest point prop (13.5) since May, yet her on-ball usage hasn’t actually changed much. Young has now lead the team in potential assists in three straight games, and is over her 17.5 PA mark in 11/14 games with 28+ minutes.

Can’t talk about these two without mentioning A’ja Wilson, who has taken complete command of the offense similar to her unanimous 2024 MVP run. A’ja has averaged 31.7 PPG across her last 3 games, along with covering this in 5/6 total meetings since start of last season. Makes sense, as A’ja is currently the best Post Up player in the league, where Indiana is allowing the most points to this season.

The Fever did like using Boston to bring A’ja in the high Pick-and-Roll, which generated super low rebound marks for A’ja with just 5 per contest. Boston being caught up also freed up Natasha Howard to operate inside.

Our next game is Sparks against Connecticut, which features the two worst rated defenses in July. The Sun’s struggles have been their interior defense, giving up 42 PITP per game this month. The leaders in PITP this month against CON (5 GP) have been:
– (PF) Natasha Howard (16 PITP, 18 Pts)
– (SF) Rickea Jackson (16 PITP, 19 Pts) | (PF) Hamby (14 PITP, 17 Pts)
– (SG) Kelsey Mitchell (12 PITP, 20 Pts)
– (C) Magbegor (11 PITP, 13.5 PPG) | (SF) Williams (11 PITP, 19.5 PPG)

The best individual team was The Sparks, who had 50 PITP right before the ASB. Spotlight is on Rickea Jackson, whose been on a scoring tear in her last 5 games this month, producing 18.4 PPG after back-to-back 20 point games against Washington. Jackson has averaged 8 PITP per game – 2nd most on the team behind Hamby at 12.9. So far, players that average >6 PITP per game are 13-3 to their or Rickea’s line in their last 5 matchups (they all scored double digits).

Being bad at everything, which is the nature of this Connecticut team, includes being poor at rebounding. Because Tina Charles has commanded so much of the shot volume, a large chunk of this rebounding is going to opposing guards (23.8, 13th). Courtney Williams with 9 and Caitlin Clark with 8 have led this group, which marks two Sheldon defenders. This was Plum last game, who secured just 1 rebound which came in the first three minutes, and may defer too many chances to back.

Because of the poor rim protection, these two teams also allow the highest opposing FG% – being the only two to give up >46%. CON has actually given up the lowest 3P%, which just reinforces how bad they are inside, yet The Sparks have surrendered the 2nd highest shooting percentage from deep at 36%.

The CON offense saw the best game from Saniya Rivers all season with a career-high 20 points along with 38.7 fantasy points. Her usage may thin a bit here, as Mabrey is set to return after hyperextending her knee, yet likely to play on a heavy minutes restriction. The Sparks were adamant on doubling Tina Charles on her Post Up attempts, which led to her low volume despite the good minutes against this soft defense.

I’m shocked this Sparks scheme did not result in more success from Olivia Nelson-Ododa, as the non-doubled big option. However, Morrow did have 11 shots (10 Pts) in her 22 minutes of action, so likely just a hot hand situation. One of these two will need to generate inside action if Connecticut is looking to keep this game close.

Seattle takes on Chicago, who will remain home throughout the weekend. Chicago has had a tough stretch recently, facing Minnesota in 3 of their last 4 games, along with losing their last 2 by 20+ Pts. The notable factor was Ariel Atkins being out for the latter two do to a foot injury. She already is ruled out for this game against Seattle.

The Seattle Storm have given up the most rebounds to opposing starters in their L10 games at 29.7, notably as they are strong enough offensively to generate high opposing starter minutes. Almost all of this action is at the rim, mostly due to the low usage Ezi Magbegor. The Wings just notched 48 rebounds, with Yueru securing 10 in just 22 minutes, while The Mystics got 36 themselves behind a combined 17 from Austin/Iriafen.

These two teams haven’t met yet this season, yet it is going to be a tough day for Seattle if they can’t keep Reese and Cardoso off the glass. Granted, the big duo can also thrive through traditional methods, as SEA is also allowing the 2nd most OPP PITP in their L10 games. Reese’s primary passing target this season has been her fellow big in Cardoso, who has shot just 3/11 and 4/12 in Chicago’s last two games.

Skylar Diggins was out last game due to personal reasons, yet is not on the injury report today. Team is hopeful for her return. The Storm just lost to Dallas by 24 points without her, which makes sense given their season on/off splits:
– With Diggins ON: 105.6 ORTG, 96.1 DRTG, 9.5 NETRTG (best)
– With Diggins OFF: 82.1 ORTG, 103.2 DRTG, -21.2 NETRTG (worst)

Pretty astonishing how much of an X-Factor she is on both ends of the floor, due to both IQ and intensity. Her return would be crucial, as you typically have the most success attacking Chicago from the perimeter, to avoid going through their massive frontcourt. CHI has ranked in the bottom 3 at limiting both OPP 3PA and OPP APG.

Williams notched 8 assists despite the massive loss vs Dallas in the absence of Diggins, and could have another great day from drive-and-kick play.

Griner returns to Phoenix, and Copper said, “I’m excited for the X-Factor to go out there and give her that standing ovation she deserves.”

This is the first time in her 13 season career where she has played for a team that wasn’t Phoenix, and would love for her to get good run today. She noted that she can “feel the tears already”. Despite the back to back for Atlanta, ideally Griner gets some good run here. Griner has o16.5 PR in 9/12 games with 24+ minutes, yet has never missed this line if she runs >26 (7/7). Other tall bigs have thrived:
– Shepard 16 PR in 17min, 15 PR in 11min / Smith 16 PR in 22min
– Billings 18 PR in 19min
– McCowan 19 PR in 22min
– Yueru 23 PR in 22min

Satou and Copper return for Phoenix today after missing four straight games and the All Star Game. Tibbetts noted yesterday, “I think if you would have asked them, they would have played a week ago… It’s a day-to-day thing. They had a good day today, and it’s kind of like, how do they respond?”

Am unsure if either will be on minutes limit upon their return. Lexi Held also has been set active to play after she suffered a collapsed lung over a month ago, yet that will definitely come with sparse minutes as she still was limited in practice.

Phoenix’s defense was absolutely unreal in that 4 game stretch without Satou/Copper, having the 3rd best DRTG. In these games, they allowed the fewest PITP and the 2nd fewest Pts off TOV. This defense will see a slight hit in productivity with Monique Akoa Makani out (concussion). However the one thing they cannot control is their lack of size, as they have surrendered 40 OPP RPG in this same span (13th), notably to frontcourt.

The Dream are on the second leg of their back-to-back, with Allisha Gray notably playing through a minor illness yesterday in Atlanta’s 15 point loss.

Jordin Canada has complete command of this offense, which was already trending towards being true (from a facilitation standpoint) before, yet now even more so. She notched 21 Potentials against Vegas, the second highest mark of the season – which was 22 by Canada three games prior. Cloud is the only backcourt player to notch 7+ Ast against Phoenix in their L15 games.

The Dream uses their large frontcourt to run high sets in their PnR game, typically through Brionna Jones while Griner stays on block, thus allowing the 2nd most starting guard rebounds in their L10 games.

Defensively the Dream’s biggest threat has always been Pullup shooters due to the deep drop coverage played by their bigs. Would be a great spot for Kahleah Copper (PR) if you can rely on minutes, as ATL surrenders the most points to both PnR Ball Handlers along with Handoffs (which AT loves).

This season, handoffs have made up a fifth of Copper’s total scoring production, compared to just 5% last season when she didn’t have Thomas as a teammate. Copper notched 19 PR vs CHI (12th vs Handoffs) in 23min, 21 vs LV (10th) and then 38 vs DAL (11th).

Subsequently, Alyssa Thomas has averaged 11.3 APG against these bottom 4 handoff defenses.

The All Star Break is about to begin, but not until these final five games are over with. The schedule for tomorrow is here:
ATL @ CHI | 11 AM CT
PHX @ MIN | 12 PM CT
GSV @ SEA | 2 PM CT
IND @ NYL | 6:30 CT
LVA @ DAL | 7 CT

Let’s start in Chicago, which is a team that has certainly been improving it’s play, yet will be without both Angel Reese and Atkins for Wednesday. Big problem, as these two lead the team in usage over Chicago’s last 10 games while also dominating their minutes. Elizabeth Williams has played the most minutes without this duo (nor Vandersloot), yet Onyenwere leads in USG at 24.5%, yet a majority of these rotational players land between 17-25%. Banham is likely to have full command of the offense here, with some minutes from Van Lith as well.

Cardoso has hauled in a quarter of the team’s defensive rebounds in the last 30 days with Reese off the court, no longer having to defer to anyone. Last time Chicago faced ATL, Reese notched 19 rebounds. Yueru, Jonquel and Austin also have notched a double-double against The Dream in their last 10 games.

Rhyne Howard is going to miss at least all of July as well, but Atlanta has enough pieces to recoup the losses here. Chicago in their L10 games is the 3rd worst DRTG, notably due to allowing the most transition points (and most off their turnovers). Jordin Canada currently leads the team in percentage of points coming from fastbreak, making up a quarter of her production.

Think what is most impressive from Canada has been her pure passing domination, averaging 7.2 APG across her last 5 games; She has notched 10 (Lynx), 19, 13, 17 and 22 potentials in these games as well. CHI is ranking 10th in OPP APG amidst their defensive struggles, and Canada’s top targets this season (all tied at 17) are Gray, Jones and Griner. Canada also leads this team in FGA/30 with Rhyne off the court (12.3), which somehow correlates to her overall passing success as well, as she has 5+ assists in every game with 12+ FGA since the start of last season.

Chicago has typically forced all action away from the rim with Cardoso in the lineup, which is likely to remain true with Williams taking Reese’s place. Slow feet there with good shot blocking ability, would expect a lot of pullup jump shots. Allisha Gray has averaged just 6 3PA per 30 with Rhyne off this season, yet threes did make up 27 of her 44 total shots in this sample.

Gray has also averaged 6.2 RPG in games with >28min without Howard since the beginning of last season, with 9.5 per game this year. It’s an odd correlation, yet CHI does allow the 3rd most rebounds to Forwards in their L10 games, while I have also tracked frequent success from opposing 3/4s (Onye/Reese defenders):
– Citron 8 (Onye) & Iriafen 10 (Reese)
– James 4 (Onye) & Geiselsoder 7 (Reese, 16min)
– Court 8 (Onye) & Collier 8 (Reese, 16 chances)
– Court 8 (Onye) & Collier 7 (Reese)

The ragtag Phoenix team is taking on The Lynx in Minnesota. These two faced off just a week ago, where Alyssa Thomas exploded for a career-high of 29 points. The three games that Phoenix have played without both Sabally and Copper – who remain out Wednesday – have been three miraculous victories. These victories included a 30 point domination over Dallas (15 Ast), a close win over Minnesota (29 Pts), and a road victory over GSV in Ballhalla (17p-11r Double-Double).

AT MVP campaign is building, and this game against Napheesa Collier could level the playing field as we enter the break.

“No question about it our offense let us down… We didn’t rise up to the physicality that Phoenix played with in loading the paint, not enough help” – Reeve after loss to PHX.

“Minnesota does a good job of taking away our threes. We’ve kind of struggled in that area, so there was a lot of room to work for AT. … She did it attacking downhill. She found it on her rolls. … We kind of lived in the paint tonight and when you take away the threes, that’s what you got to look for is scoring in the paint. … It was a heck of a performance by her.” – Thibbetts

Sami Whitcomb notched 6 assists (team-high) against MIN last meeting, with 5 of those going to AT. Both of her season-high assist games have come against Minnesota, yet she has yet to notch over a single 3PM against the best Spot Up team this season.

Will note, this is Minnesota’s 9th game already this month, while Phoenix has played just 4! This is preventing The Lynx was pulling away, as they have now kept six straight games within 15 points. Courtney Williams had by far the best game vs PHX with her 21 Points off a team high of 18 FGA, and just two of those looks were from behind the arc. A lot of her action was through PnR with Collier to attack AT’s drop coverage. So glad she’s an All-Star.

Phoenix’s defense has been unreal, and have the best DRTG in the 3 games without Sabally/Copper. In these three games, they are Top 3 at limiting OPP PITP and Fastbreak Points. This defense will see a slight hit in productivity with Monique Akoa Makani out (concussion). However the one thing they cannot control is their lack of size, which has left them surrendering 14.7 2nd Chance Pts (most) and 19.4 F Rebs (3rd most) in this span. Recent bigs have been successful:
– Collier/Smith 7&9
– Yueru/Geis 7&8 (limited mins from blowout too)
– Billings 9 in 19min

Alanna (14) and Collier (17) led in chances, and both were in great position all game – good spot to target.

Seattle gets to host The Valks, who just lost a heartbreaker to The Mercury on Monday. The last time Golden State faced The Storm, they absolutely crushed them by 27 points in Ballhalla.

“I thought they did everything better than us. 20 to 4 in fastbreak points. We are 2nd in the league in PITP, it was 48-18. It’s embarrassing, it’s bullshit effort on our part, as professionals we have to come out every night” – Skylar Diggins-Smith

The Storm’s paint defense has not improved since, as they have allowed the most OPP PITP in their L10 games at 38.6 per game. The Mystics just contributed another 48 PITP inside against them! This is going to likely be a drastic shift in Valks offense, as they just scored 10 total PITP against The Mercury. In games where GSV have scored 35+ PITP (which includes two 45+ vs SEA), player trends have included:
– Thornton 10, 15, 16, 22, 18 and 22 Pts (15.5 FGA in 4GP w/ 30+ min)
– Burton 8, 7, 5, 3, 9, 6 and 12 Ast (7.5 APG w/ 25+ min, 15.3 Pots)

Thornton has 14+ Pts in 9/9 games with 13+ FGA against non-T3 defenses.

Seattle, despite addressing it often in their postgame, also cannot rebound for sh*t. They are leaking the 2nd most in their L10 games, with by far the most frontcourt rebounds. Recent performers (L5 GP):
– Allisha Gray (SF) 11 Reb / Brionna (C) 10 Reb
– Charles (C) 10.5/gp
– Iriafen (PF) 10 / Austin (C) 7 in 23min
– Ionescu (SG) 9 / Sabally (C) 6 in 20min

The Valks are by far the best Paint defense this year, but also that is a biproduct of surrendering the most OPP 3PA in their L10 games at 28.6 per game. Phoenix just shot 29 threes against them with 22 PITP. They absolutely love to collapse on any and all inside action, which is going to be a shock for Seattle’s offense who faced a very porous Mystics interior.

Magbegor & Ogwumike just combined for 28 FGA, which is more than their total FGA through two entire meetings against Golden State (26). Expecting both of these two to regress significantly, while SDS could command attention here.

The final 30 seconds in the TD Garden on Tuesday featured a groin reaggravation to Caitlin Clark, and given this is the second leg of their back-to-back along with entering an extended break, she has no real reason to suit up on the road vs The Liberty. Just going to focus on NYL offense here.

Sabrina Ionescu has averaged 28.5 PPG against Indiana thus far, coming off 20 shots per contest. Now at this point in the season, that volume isn’t even outlandish for her, as she has had at least 18 shots in 4 straight games. The Indiana Fever defense isn’t known for doubling, so individual matchups for Sabrina and Stewart are favorable.

I question the competitive nature of this game given Fever’s scenario.

The Aces are heading to Dallas to face the Wings, and are crawling back to an even record. After losing three straight halfway through June, A’ja Wilson decided to take matters into her own hands, and has scored 22+ Pts in 6 of the 7 games she was able to finish (got hurt vs The Liberty).

The Dallas Wings have been running a new double-big lineup that consists of both Li Yueru and Geiselsoder as they lost Nalyssa Smith in a trade to Aces (revenge!). I would love to back some Nalyssa Smith, yet with Megan Gustafson returning to the lineup, it seems that Smith has been relegated back to low playing time – she saw just 9 minutes last game. Someone please give this girl some run!

This DAL lineup sucks, as they are giving up 40 PITP per game despite the increase in size along with being just 1-3 since it’s implementation. Their depth of McCowan and MHA does not provide any defensive improvements. However, DiJonai Carrington having a shot at returning to the lineup. Unsure how A’ja won’t continue to roll, as she has averaged 35.3 PPG vs DAL in her three meetings across the last two seasons with 22 shots per game.

No team has given up more assists to guards in this 4 game span than DAL has, at 14.1 per game. Notable POA numbers have been:
– Caitlin Clark 13 Ast (25min) / McDonald 6 in 20min
– AT 15 Ast, 10 Ast

Jackie Young had 5+ Ast in every game with A’ja against DAL, yet if Wilson’s jumpshot is falling over these DAL bigs, then any Aces player can seemingly thrive. Young has personally notched 17+ Pts in all 4 meetings, averaging over 20 PPG as she gets to attack inside.

This Aces team is a statistical paradox. In their L10 games, they are ranking 1st at limiting OPP 3PA, RPG, APG and 2nd Chance Pts… yet they’ve won just half of those games. In the sole meeting this season, The Wings attacked them purely through their backcourt:
– Arike 17 FGA
– Dijonai 16 FGA
– Bueckers 19 FGA

Arike has had this teams number, with 28.8 PA across the four meetings since 2024 with 17.5 FGA per game.

The slate begins at noon, for a matchup that likely was expected to be a top game of the season entering June, given the headliners of Paige Bueckers and Caitlin Clark. However, the sophomore slump for Clark has been in full effect. Caitlin Clark has made just 4 of 35 3PA across her last 5 games. However, it is good that she is back at home, which this season has been an astronomical difference in play. Clark this season has shot 40.3% from deep at home, sinking 3.6 makes per game off of 8.9 attempts. However, throw her on the road and that number is 3.6%. THREE POINT SIX PERCENT! She has made just 0.3 per 7 attempts, insanity.

The Wings have allowed the highest OPP 3P% in their L10 games, with Whitcomb, Citron, Copper, Allen/Banham and Mitchell all notching over 40% shooting off 5+ attempts against DAL in just the last 5 games.

The meeting between these two just two weeks ago was an Indiana victory without Clark, as Kelsey Mitchell dropped 32 points – marking her season high and third straight game with 30+ points against The Wings. Clark has also had 24+ in all three 2024 meetings. As The Wings have now started a double-big lineup of Yueru and Geiselsoder, which discourages them from doing a ton of doubling. Good handoff action is what allowed Sami Whitcomb to notch 36 points, so a lot of pullup 3s in store here.

The success has most come from slashing bigs though:
– Copper 33 Pts (17 FGA) / Satou 20 Pts (15)
– Austin 18 Pts (15)
– Natasha Howard 15 (10)

Natasha Howard fits the bill, and also helps when she is facing her former squad. She also picked up 13 rebounds, which is a shocking figure vs this lineup. In DAL’s L10 games, only Howard and Reese have averaged over 7 DREB.

Indiana’s defense has surrendered the fewest fastbreak points in their L10 games, at just 7.1 per game. Arike Ogunbowale is probable to return to the lineup, which likely relegates JJ Quinerly to the bench. This should reopen Paige to thrive as a passer, and with Arike vs below average defenses has averaged 6.4 APG. In Paige’s last 3 games with JJ/Aziaha in lineup, she only notched 8 potentials per game – compared to 12.6 in the 5 games prior.

Not a great spot to back her however, as IND is allowing the fewest OPP APG in that span, which may just be due to how much they are fouling. They have struggled mightily as a Post Up defense, which doesn’t really play into DAL’s strengths unless Yueru can build off her 18 Pt performance vs CHI (season high).

The New York Liberty just had 5 days of rest, and get to be at home against Atlanta. In their last 5 games, they have allowed the 2nd most OPP RPG and the 2nd most OPP APG. They have been addressing this issue for a while, and noted this after the win over Las Vegas (allowed just 32 Reb):
“The mindset and things that we wanted to focus in on were rebounding, getting to the free throw line, and just moving the ball. … The way that we started stayed pretty consistent throughout the game. Like the ball was flying all over the place and just finding the open person.”

Sabrina and Fiebich notched 8 & 9 rebounds to lead the team. Cloud will return this game after some hip discomfort. If Fiebich is set on crashing the glass in Jonquel’s absence, then it makes her 3.5 line intriguing.

The 32 Rebounds and 13 Assists that Aces notched are pale in comparison to the 38 Rebounds and 27 Assists that ATL notched against NYL just 3 games prior. Allisha with 15 RA to Canada’s 13. A part of these high numbers is out of The Liberty’s control, as they are the league’s leader in PACE, so a lot more possessions in store. Canada got up to 19 potential assists, the highest potential count of any ATL player this season.

In the last 10 games, ATL is allowing the 3rd lowest OPP 3PA, along with the fewest Corner 3s, Pts off TOV. As a result, ATL has struggled mightly against the Pick-and-Roll system. They currently rank 10th or worse at limiting points from PnR Handlers, Rollers, Post Up, Handoff and Off Screen.

It’s likely we see a lot of Pick-and-Roll with Sabrina/Stewie, so both sides are scoring threats. Recent duos have been succeeding:
– Sabrina / Stewart 15 & 18 FGA
– Wheeler / Ogwumike 17 & 14 FGA
– Court / Phee 16 & 18 FGA
– Paige / Yueru 15 & 9 FGA
– Atkins / Reese 22 & 11 FGA
– Hayes / Thornton 10 & 14 FGA
– Clark / Boston 17 & 10 FGA

First meeting this year between Seattle and Washington. The Mystics have allowed the fewest OPP 3PA since Austin entered the lineup (6-3 in that span). Only one opposing starter has made over 2 threes vs WSH, while Young, Loyd, and Rhyne were the only two ball handlers to notch over 5 3PA. Jackie had two buzzer beater attempts. They have ranked Top 4 in DRTG, OPP PTs off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in this span. Guards have struggled:
– Atkins 10 Pts (7 Ast)
– Court 5 Pts / McBride 7 Pts
– Paige 16 Pts (7 Ast, in Reg)
– Rhyne 13 Pts (6 Ast)
– Gray 13 Pts (8 Ast) / Jackie 13 Pts
– Arike 14 Pts
– Williams 10 Pts (8 Ast)
– Atkins 11 Pts (5 Ast)

Thus, the people that have thrived in these games vs WSH have been the frontcourt. Reese/Williams just combined for 26 FGA and 42 Pts (20+ each), and Collier poured on 28 Pts (21 FGA) the game before. Expecting Gabby Williams to continue rolling, yet Nneka Ogwumike in for a good spot as well.

Seattle’s defense has so much length and lateral movement, which garnered them the 2nd best DRTG and allowing the 2nd fewest OPP 3PA in their L10 games. The main hole of this defense comes from their rebounding, as they have let up just under 40 rebounds per game. This has been addressed in frequent postgames:
After NYL: “The biggest thing is finishing possessions with rebounds. I’ve been challenging Gabby to rebound the ball… sometimes we have to remind her who she is… Our Achilles heel was giving up O’ boards, our issue with it was just being fundamental and boxing out… we will continue to emphasize it.” – Quinn
After CON: “We’ll play defense and then we don’t seal it off with the rebound or… we don’t score. … At this level, you have to be able to do that. … We want to continue to play in transition after getting stops off of one shot on goal.” – Ogwumike

As Connecticut takes on Los Angeles, it’s going to be a game of non existent defense. Despite CON being just 1-9 in their L10 games, they actually rank slightly better in DRTG than LA does – though both of these teams are dead last in the league. Sparks are allowing the most PITP in that span while playing at a Top 3 PACE, making me most intrigued by The Sun’s young core in Nelson-Ododa and Saniya Rivers.

Rivers’ points have increased every single game across the last 4, while seeing her season-high in minutes last game at 35. Was assigned to Gabby Williams, so likely to sit off Rickea Jackson today. The Sparks have allowed the 2nd fewest opponent rebounds in their L10 games, notably (by far) the fewest Guard rebounds. In turn, they are actually in the B3 to rebounds surrendered to opposing forwards (Hamby/Rickea defenders).

CON’s defense is swiss cheese, similar to their opponent, so can take any spot you wish. They are not only the worst rim defense on the season, yet also the worst Spot Up defense. As mentioned prior, the worst rebound defense is a title also held by this team, giving up 38.6 per game. Azura Stevens in her last game vs CON had 17 rebounds, yet that was a season ago. Opposing to LA, they let up 25 OPP Guard RPG, making up 64% of the total rebounds let up. LA, who was the best team at limiting G reb, allows just 7.

The now 7-13 Sky just took down the league’s top squad in Minnesota. This was their first win of the season against a top .500 team (0-10 prior). The Lynx not only have 18 wins, but also are leading the league in both offensive and defensive rating. The Sky are now 4-3 across their last 7 games, yet all three of those losses were within 5 points – including a road matchup against this Lynx team.

The key? Angel Reese. Chicago’s only All-Star has certainly been playing like it, as Reese has averaged 18.7 Pts, 15.7 Rebs and 4.3 Asts in that 7 game span. She now has notched 7 straight 15+ Pt double-doubles as well, tying the longest streak in franchise history. Her 5 game span of 15+ Pts and 15+ Rebs was also two games longer than the previous longest streak in WNBA history, shared most recently by A’ja Wilson last season (unanimous MVP).

After an incredible Unrivaled offseason, Reese was on my A-List entering her sophomore year, yet the start of Chicago’s 2025 season was particularly awful. I wrote an article earlier this season titled “The Sky can’t get worse”, and it was true. The Chicago Sky opened the year 0-3, a start we have seen from teams in every season, yet lost those three games by an average margin of defeat of 25 points. In that three game span, they posted these metrics:
– 84.3 ORTG, 114.1 DRTG, -29.8 NETRTG
– 26.0 Player Impact Estimate
– 0.83 AST/TOV Ratio, 24.1 TOV%

This would have led to the worst ORTG since the 2000 season and the worst NETRTG of all time. The team was a disaster, with their biggest offseason acquisition Ariel Atkins being team low in usage and the offense being a turnover machine. However, despite losing Vandersloot to an ACL injury, The Sky are resilient.

In the 7 game stretch, Chicago is ranking 4th in offensive rating, 3rd in PACE and 6th in defensive rating. Now, Cardoso has returned from AmeriCup to bolster this frontcourt. The second half of the season is going to be an exciting push for playoffs.

Minnesota plays their 2nd leg of the back-to-back, and with both of the games being early they aren’t even getting a full 24 hours of rest (in addition to the travel). This is their first, and will be their only, back-to-back for the 2025 season; Also helped to have 3 days of rest before this, so they should be okay.

The Lynx just lost by eight to Alyssa Thomas and The Mercury. AT now jumped Caitlin Clark in MVP odds (+650) after a 29 Pt performance (career high), insanity. Half of her 24 total FGA were jumpshots, and pretty open too as MIN collapsed often on Ball Handlers or inside. I have never seen PnR beat that Lynx team so consistently.

Luckily, they face Los Angeles. The Sparks in their L10 games have surrendered the most PITP in the league, at nearly 40 per game. In their last game, Indiana just poured on 46 PITP. Howard and Boston both poured on 20+ Pts. They also surrender the most OPP STL and OPP BLK, while ranking dead last in DRTG (CON doesn’t count anymore).

Napheesa Collier just had to go at Alyssa Thomas all game, yet now will garner a much more favorable matchup in Azura Stevens. She has notched 27.5 PPG vs LAS this season, off 23 & 35 points, along with notching 3.5 stocks. She would join a solid list of other power forwards to thrive:
– Reese 24 Pts (19 FGA)
– Howard 21 Pts (11 FGA)
– Stewie 17 Pts (17 FGA)
– Ogwumike 26 Pts (16 FGA)

Phee is over in 70% of her last 30 games with 16+ FGA, and 85% of her last 15 games with 17+.

Alanna Smith is the team leader in stocks, yet just had her first game of the season with none against PHX. However, now is a great time for a comeback. Other frontcourt players who are Top 5 in SPG or BPG this season:
– Gabby 8 Stocks
– A’ja 6 Stocks
– Magbegor 6 Stocks
– Stew 3 Stocks
– AT 3 Stocks

Great fantasy option, given the value of stocks. She will guard Azura Stevens.

Attack the Sparks inside or attack them from the perimeter, both are effective. LA is also surrendering the 3rd most opposing 3PT attempts and makes in the same 10 game span. All their opposing leaders in threes of course came from deep:
– Sabrina 9 3PA
– KMitch 7.5 3PA per game
– McBride 7 3PA per game
– Banham 8 3PA

McBride shot 7 3PA in both meetings vs LA this season.

The Sparks have been an average rebounding unit, yet those who have thrived are the players anywhere from the 3-5, as long as they don’t defend Plum. 6 starters (all PF/Cs) notched 10+ Reb vs LAS in their L10 games. Atkins, Gray, Williams, Cloud and Burton were all Plum defenders and subsequently the only players to play 30+ minutes and not notch at least 5 rebounds.

With Karlie Samuelson now injured, it’s likely that Courtney Williams takes Plum defensively. She has already notched 5 or fewer rebounds in the last 5 games vs LA, yet just 3 per game since Plum joined the squad.

While Williams is a high-effort defender, she will definitely grade as one of the easier assignments that Plum has had to face. She got up 16 shots regardless of who MIN threw at her (Williams or Samuelson), yet her shot quality was much higher vs Courtney, with 9 shots alone inside the paint.

Azura Stevens is going to be a key part at keeping that lane free for Plum to drive, as she is being defended by Alanna Smith who is one of the best shot blockers in the league, so that 3ball needs to fall. The Sparks have yet to face MIN and lose by less than 14.

A’ja Wilson is out with the wrist injury she suffered vs NYL. With her off the court this season yet with Jackie/Chelsea/Loyd on, those big three have notched:
– Jackie: 30.8% USG (1st), 33.3% AST (1st)
– Chelsea: 24.5% AST
– Loyd: 10 FGA per 30 (2nd)

Loyd has notched 16.7 PPG in the three without A’ja this season, firing up 8 3PA in all three games.

The Mystics are now even more likely to continue to apply high pressure on ball handlers. The Mystics have allowed the fewest OPP 3PA since Austin entered the lineup. Only one opposing starter has made over 2 threes vs WSH, while Young and Rhyne were the only two ball handlers to notch over 5 3PA. Jackie had two buzzer beater attempts. They have ranked Top 4 in DRTG, OPP PTs off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in this span. Guards have struggled:
– Atkins 10 Pts (7 Ast)
– Court 5 Pts / McBride 7 Pts
– Paige 16 Pts (7 Ast, in Reg)
– Rhyne 13 Pts (6 Ast)
– Gray 13 Pts (8 Ast) / Jackie 13 Pts
– Arike 14 Pts
– Williams 10 Pts (8 Ast)
– Atkins 11 Pts (5 Ast)

Consistent trends. Chelsea led the squad with 15 potentials last time these two faced, followed up by Jackie with 9.

Thus, the people that have thrived in these games vs WSH have been the frontcourt. Reese/Williams just combined for 26 FGA and 42 Pts (20+ each), and Collier poured on 28 Pts (21 FGA) the game before. Nalyssa Smith, the new Aces addition, could be in for a good day.

The Mystics are 5-3 since Austin has joined the starting lineup. During this stretch, they faced The Aces without Sykes and still managed an 11 point victory. This was their second highest scoring output of the year (94), where they only scored more against The Flint Tropics. Citron led this charge with 21 Pts off of 13 total FGA.

This game was a peak of Hammon’s frustration, and also where she first showed the “platoon swap” as she benched the entire starting lineup early in the 3rd Quarter. Here were all her quotes postgame:
“Terrible. Start to finish. We lost every quarter but that fourth quarter and a lot of that is because our bench came in and competed and did a great job. That’s what we’re going to need… just not no togetherness defensively honestly… we’ve played eight quarters against this team and we’ve played hard and competed in two of them. Two out of the eight.”

Sykes hasn’t played the Aces in over two seasons now, and also has been a lot more passive in the last 3 games since she returned from injury. Has been deferring a lot of isolation matchups in favor of the WSH frontcourt, which should continue today as LVA has ranked B3 to both Post Up and PnR Rollers this season. Granted, Sykes did have her most involved game vs CHI with 12 FGA in 32min.

Given the Aces are also limiting 3s hard as a direct note of Becky Hammon, expect Sykes, Austin and Iriafen to attack inside.

Shakira Austin on her 4 dimes vs CHI noted, “That’s always been something I’ve wanted to show. As a versatile post player who can pretty much attack anybody and have an advantage, I also am able to dish it out and find my teammates. … That’s just who I want to be is a versatile playmaker who plays on both ends.”