Category: Commentary

• Game: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians
• Date: Wednesday, August 14
• Time: 4:40 PM ET

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

The Cubs will seek revenge tonight in the last game of the series as they lost the last 2 games to the Guardians by a single run which were both scored in late innings. Jameson Taillon will try to help avoid the sweep as Cleveland will send Alex Cobb on the bump.

The Cubs are hot at the plate recently, ranking 10th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 9th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. This indicates that their offense is finding success against righties, a trend they will look to continue in this matchup.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been struggling, particularly at home. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians rank a dismal 26th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. In other words, their bats are failing to generate meaningful contact or runs, especially in matchups against right-handed arms. Their power metrics are also lacking, ranking 26th in on-base percentage (OBP), 24th in slugging percentage (SLG), 25th in on-base plus slugging (OPS), and 26th in isolated power (ISO) during this same span.

Defensively, the Cubs have been solid. Their opponents have posted a hard-hit rate of just 38% this season, which is the 5th best in MLB. This ability to limit hard contact should play well against a Guardians lineup that struggles to generate consistent power, with the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors at just 35%.

The Cubs’ starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, primarily utilizes a four-seam fastball, throwing it 31% of the time overall and 40% against left-handed batters. This is bad news for the Guardians, as they are last in MLB in runs above average versus four-seam fastballs.

On the other hand, the Guardians will be up against Alex Cobb, who relies heavily on his sinker (45%) and splitter (43%). While Cobb’s arsenal can be tricky, the Cubs are well-equipped to handle it, ranking 9th and 12th, respectively, against sinkers and splitters. This should further solidify the Cubs’ ability to score runs off Cobb.

Given the Cubs’ offensive momentum against righties, the Guardians’ continued struggles at the plate, and the favorable pitching matchups, the Cubs moneyline (ML) looks appealing. Combining these factors with the Cubs’ ability to limit hard contact while exploiting the Guardians’ inability to handle fastballs, the data suggests the Cubs should come out on top. In addition, The Money Baller matchup page shows a favorable Matchup Rating on the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs ML +120 (BetMGM)

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

Hello everyone! Welcome to our ‘Free Preview’ day. For those new to the site, this is a daily article we provide to our premium Baller Access subscribers. Our team went 2-0 yesterday with the featured trends! Orioles F5 RL and the Mariners/Mets NRFI were a hit.

To check out the different terms and memberships we offer, visit this link: Memberships – The Money Baller

I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends:

• Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts | Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
  • Several factors point to value on the Cubs moneyline (-120, ESPN Bet) tonight. Shota Imanaga has been solid this season with a 3.06 ERA. In contrast, Ben Lively has a 3.59 ERA but a concerning 4.75 FIP, suggesting he could be due for some negative regression. The Cubs are also backed by a strong Baller Matchup Rating of 6, and supported by an active Baller System that favors teams in the first game of a road, non-divisional series when on at least a two-game winning streak.

• Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts
• Rays: 4-12 O/U (1-8 O/U at home) when Taj Bradley starts.
  • The trends heavily favor the under in this matchup, with two solid pitchers on the mound. The table below highlights both pitchers’ stats over the last 30 days. Under 7.5 (-120, ESPN Bet) is the most favorable price we see out there.

• Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024
• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
  • Keep an eye on this game, as some books have been slow to release lines, suggesting there could be a pitching change. If that happens, the Baller Matchup Rating could change. If not, the surging Diamondbacks make a great parlay piece or run-line candidate.

• Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts | 20-10-3 F5 ML vs. LHP.
  • The Braves have been underwhelming lately, but with Chris Sale on the mound and their strong record against left-handed pitchers, we think they have a good chance to overcome the red-hot Blake Snell and the Giants. Braves F5 ML (-105, BetRivers) is a value play for today.

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians

• Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts.
• Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• Guardians: 25-9 ML vs. LHP.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

• Cardinals: 6-1 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.
• Cardinals: 6-1 ML and O/U as road favorites when Sonny Gray starts.
• Reds: 6-16-1 O/U when Andrew Abbott starts.
• Reds: 2-8 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts.
• In L30 days, Astros: 2-13-2 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
• Rays: 4-12 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

• Red Sox: 15-5-1 F5 O/U when Brayan Bello starts.
• Red Sox: 17-6-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

• Royals: 9-20 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
• Royals: 24-10 NRFI as a road underdog.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

• In L30 days, Brewers: 1-6-1 F5 ML vs. LHP.

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

• Yankees, despite being a top team, struggle against lefties. They are 10-14-6 F5 ML vs. LHP.
• White Sox are 1-23 ML since July 12, 2024.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

• Blue Jays: 5-0 O/U when Bowden Francis starts.

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML and 14-5-5 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
• Diamondbacks: 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024.
  

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

• Pirates: 31-13 NRFI as road underdogs.
• Pirates: 29-15 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
• Padres: 15-33 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.
  

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

• Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts.
• Braves: 15-3 NRFI as road underdogs.
• Braves: 20-10-3 F5 ML and 21-12 ML vs. LHP.
  

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Friday, August 9

Time: 5:07 PM ET

In tonight’s highlighted matchup, we are heading north of the border at Rogers Centre for a game between the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. Mitch Spence will take the hill for Oakland and the Jays will send Jose Berrios

Spence’s performance as an away underdog has been dismal, with a record of 1-4 in such situations. His struggles are exacerbated when coming off games where he throws 90+ pitches, holding a 1-6 record in those scenarios. This suggests that Spence tends to wear down, making him vulnerable in his following start. Additionally, his road ERA stands at 5.22, significantly higher than his home ERA of 3.86. His peripheral stats are also concerning, as he ranks in the 18th percentile for barrel rate, 22nd percentile for exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. These numbers indicate that hitters are making solid contact against him, especially on the road.

Berrios has been a reliable force for the Blue Jays, particularly when playing at home. As a home favorite, he boasts a 7-2 record, and when facing teams with a losing record, he’s even more dominant with an 8-1 record. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home, compared to a much less impressive 5.29 ERA on the road. Moreover, Berrios has had the Athletics’ number, winning his last five starts against them dating back to 2021.

The Blue Jays have been hot offensively at home, ranking 7th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. On the other hand, the Athletics have been one of the worst teams in these categories, ranking 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers on the road during the same period. The Athletics are also the 4th worst scoring team and rank 5th worst in run defense on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.

Given the clear pitching advantage with Berrios, the Blue Jays’ recent offensive success at home, and the Athletics’ struggles both offensively and defensively on the road, the Blue Jays’ moneyline (-155) looks like a strong play. Berrios’ track record against the Athletics and Spence’s poor performance trends only solidify the confidence in this bet.

Back the Blue Jays to take care of business at home tonight.