Category: Commentary

Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 2 picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 21-18-2.

NFL Week 14 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Fading home teams off OT win
• IV. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• V. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• VI. Double-Digit Favorites
• Write-ups and picks

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I. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Panthers: 9-2-1 1H O/U this season.
• Titans: 2-9-1 ATS this season.
• Chargers: 10-1-1 1H ATS this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-11 O/U this season.
• Chargers: 1-8-1 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
• Bears: 0-5 1H ATS on the road this season.
• Bills: 10-2 Team Total O/U this season.
• Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 3-12 ATS in L15 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
  

Not active this week:

• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
• Chargers: 8-1 ATS as favorites this season.
• Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
• Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
• Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Scoring has been on an upward trend for the third consecutive week, with Week 13 games averaging 48.4 points per game (PPG). This marks an increase from 47.7 PPG in Week 12 and 46.8 PPG in Week 11. However, this rise is slightly skewed by high-scoring games like Steelers vs. Bengals (82 points) and Broncos vs. Browns (73 points). Excluding these outliers, the median scoring sits at 46 PPG, revealing the average is somewhat inflated. The season-long scoring average has now ticked up to 45.6 PPG.

Totals betting in Week 13 ended 7-8 O/U, a mixed result that reflects this upward scoring trend but hints at potential shifts in Week 14.

Season Trends and Week 14 Outlook

• Season-long totals record: 101-91-3 to the over.
• Week 14 average total: 45.4, consistent with season-long scoring.

Despite the recent scoring spike, historical trends suggest a late-season shift toward lower-scoring games. This is often driven by divisional familiarity, more conservative game plans for playoff contenders, and weather impacts.

Strategies for Betting Totals in Week 14

1. Target Inflated Totals: Higher lines stemming from recent scoring surges may create value for unders, especially where pace, weather, or situational factors point to fewer points.
2. Focus on Pace and Red Zone Efficiency: Teams playing at slower paces or with struggles in the red zone are prime under candidates.
3. Monitor Weather Conditions: Early forecasts can reveal opportunities for unders before the market reacts.

Key Takeaways

As Week 14 approaches, disciplined bettors can capitalize on potential market inefficiencies caused by scoring trends. Late-season dynamics—such as familiarity, playoff implications, and unpredictable weather—make unders an appealing strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.

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III. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 55-32-4 record (63.2% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 4-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Buccaneers (play on the Raiders +6.5) in Week 14.

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IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Bengals (vs. Cowboys) in Week 14.

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V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 160-108-3 ATS (59.7%). Backing this has gone 9-4 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Seahawks (fade the Cardinals) in Week 14.

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VI. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 154-118-10 ATS. (5-3 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Eagles -13.5 this week against the Panthers.

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NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks enter this pivotal NFC West clash with momentum over the Arizona Cardinals. With two Baller Systems pointing in their favor, here’s why we’re taking the Seahawks to cover as underdogs:

1. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites Off a Loss
   Arizona suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Vikings in their previous outing, a classic setup for fading teams in this spot.
   
2. Baller System: Backing Divisional Dogs Who Dominate the Matchup
   Seattle has won the last two head-to-head matchups against Arizona, indicating they’ve figured out how to handle this divisional rival. This confidence should carry over into this crucial game.
   
3. Seahawks Road Resilience
   Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, proving their ability to deliver away from home. Conversely, the Cardinals are returning home after two road games over the Thanksgiving stretch—a situation that often results in mental and physical fatigue.
   
4. Momentum and Playoff Implications
   The Seahawks are riding a three-game win streak and come into this matchup motivated, knowing the impact it has on the divisional playoff picture. While the Cardinals might argue it’s a revenge spot, Seattle’s recent form and cohesion give me more confidence.
   
5. Kenneth Walker’s Availability and Depth
   Even with Kenneth Walker listed as questionable, the Seahawks can rely on Zach Charbonnet, a capable backup who can carry the load if needed.

Seattle’s well-rounded performance and mental edge in recent matchups make them the smart play here. I would try to find a Seahawks +3 (-115 or better) but would also take Seahawks +2.5 if that is your best option.

Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

This Week 14 matchup sets up favorably for the Bengals, supported by two key Baller Systems and strong situational trends:

1. Road Favorites Off a Loss

Road favorites of 2.5+ points, coming off a home loss as favorites, sport a 51-22-4 ATS record since 2018, including 7-3 ATS this season. This reflects the strong bounce-back potential of teams favored on the road after an unexpected setback. Cincinnati fits the profile, signaling a confident rebound opportunity.

2. Favorites After High-Turnover Games

Teams coming off turnover-heavy games tend to rebound with a better focus on ball security. The Bengals’ offense remains highly efficient despite recent defensive struggles, making them reliable in this spot.

3. Favorable Matchup Context

• Cowboys Offensive Struggles: Ranked 27th in Offensive DVOA, Dallas lacks the firepower to exploit Cincinnati’s defensive lapses.
• Line Confidence: The Bengals are -5 favorites despite a worse record, indicating trust from the market in their potential to dominate. Cincinnati has faced a rough schedule in the last few weeks, and should be able to bounce back against the lowly Cowboys.

4. Notable Trends Against the Cowboys

• 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs.
• 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Pick: Bengals -5.5

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Welcome to the Part 2 of NFL Week 13 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 1 picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 20-17-2.

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NFL Week 13 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Fading home teams off OT win
• IV. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• V. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• VI. Post-Thanksgiving NFL Games: A Betting Trend to Watch
• VII. Bye Week Analysis
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 13 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Browns: 2-9 Team Total O/U this season
• Texans: 10-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-7 full game ATS)
• Titans: 3-10 ATS in L13 road games.
• Titans: 2-8-1 ATS this season.
• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Panthers: 9-1-1 1H O/U this season.
• Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
• Eagles: 2-9 1H O/U this season.
• Chargers: 9-1-1 1H ATS this season.
• Chargers: 7-1 ATS as favorites this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-10 O/U this season.
  

Not active this week (or already passed)

• Cowboys: 2-12 ATS in L14 games as underdogs.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Lions: 10-2 1H ATS this season.
• Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

For the second consecutive week, scoring surged, with Week 12 games averaging 47.7 points per game (PPG), up from Week 11’s 46.8 PPG. This has pushed the season-long average to 45.3 PPG. Overs dominated last week, going 10-3, while the median scoring hit an impressive 51 PPG. Despite this upward trend, there are reasons to expect a shift back toward lower-scoring games as the NFL season enters its late stages.

Heading into Week 13, the season’s overall record for totals stands at 94-83-3 to the over. Week 13’s average total of 45.2 has increased week-over-week, aligning with season-long scoring averages. Notably, the four early games in Week 13 have gone 3-1 to the under, suggesting a potential cooling of the scoring spike.

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Betting Strategies for Totals

To adapt to the late-season environment, consider the following:

• Target Inflated Totals
  Recent scoring spikes may inflate totals. Look for games where weather, pace, or situational factors hint at an under despite a higher line.
• Analyze Pace and Red Zone Efficiency
  Teams with slow pace or poor red-zone efficiency are prime under candidates. Their inability to convert drives into touchdowns keeps total points low.
• Monitor Weather Early
  Weather conditions impact totals closer to kickoff, but tracking forecasts early can uncover valuable opportunities before the market adjusts.

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While recent weeks have seen a scoring resurgence, late-season NFL football trends suggest that unders could regain prominence. Familiar matchups, conservative playoff strategies, and unpredictable weather all favor lower-scoring outcomes. As the market reacts to these fluctuations, sharp bettors can exploit value by aligning with these factors.

Stay disciplined, stay informed, and capitalize on the evolving landscape in Week 13 and beyond.

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III. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-32-4 record (62.8% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Vikings (play on the Cardinals +3.5) in Week 13.

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IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-2 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Texans (vs. Jaguars) in Week 13.

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V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Titans (fade the Commanders) in Week 13.

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VI. Post-Thanksgiving NFL Games: A Betting Trend to Watch

Sunday after Thanksgiving ATS Trends:
Since 2012, home teams have performed exceptionally well on the Sunday following Thanksgiving, with a strong 86-54-1 ATS (61.4%) record. The trend is even more pronounced for home favorites, who boast an impressive 49-24-0 ATS (67.1%) record during this period.

Impacted Teams in 2024:
In Week 13, the following teams fit the profile of home favorites:

• Buffalo Bills
• Baltimore Ravens
• Washington Commanders
• Minnesota Vikings
• Cincinnati Bengals

Why the Trend Matters

This trend may reflect the advantages of playing at home after a short preparation week. Teams traveling over Thanksgiving face unique challenges, such as disrupted schedules and holiday distractions, which can disproportionately impact visiting teams.

Key Takeaway:
While trends like these shouldn’t be the sole determinant of a wager, they can serve as a useful starting point. The Sunday after Thanksgiving has consistently favored home teams, especially those laying points. Keep an eye on the listed teams to see if the trend holds for another year.

This trend disputes some of the Baller Systems mentioned earlier.

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VII. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends

Favorites Before a Bye Week:
Since the start of the 2022 season, favorites heading into a bye week have performed exceptionally well against the spread (ATS), boasting a 34-12 record (73.9%). This trend has continued into the 2024 season with a 7-3 ATS record, highlighting the confidence and urgency with which these teams play before a well-earned break.

In Week 13 of 2024, this trend applies to the following teams:

• Indianapolis Colts
• Washington Commanders
• Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens
• Denver Broncos

Divisional Matchups Before a Bye Week:
Since 2015, teams playing divisional opponents before a bye week have an impressive 67-43 ATS (60.9%) record. These games often carry heightened importance, leading to focused performances. However, this trend hasn’t been as successful in 2024, with a 1-2-1 ATS record thus far.

This trend is active for the Houston Texans in Week 13, as they face the Denver Broncos. Despite the weaker performance of this subset in 2024, the broader trend remains worth considering.

Why the Trend Matters

Teams entering a bye week often play with extra intensity, aiming to capitalize on their final opportunity to secure a win before a break. This urgency is amplified for favorites, as they are typically better-equipped to dominate in such scenarios. Divisional matchups, in particular, add another layer of competitiveness, as teams aim to improve their standing within the division.

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NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans have been one of the NFL’s most reliable 1H teams this season at 10-2 1H ATS. They consistently establish early leads, showcasing discipline and efficiency in the opening two quarters. Somehow, they can’t seem to put it together in the second half.

Houston’s previous game saw a lack of discipline, with two turnovers and 11 penalties contributing to their loss against the Tennessee Titans. One of our Baller Systems show that favorites coming off multi-turnover games (as a favorite) tend to respond with sharper, more focused performances. Expect DeMeco Ryans and the Texans to clean up their mistakes and deliver a more composed effort.

Another Baller System active on the Texans states that since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing.

As mentioned above, teams heading into a bye week often perform well, knowing a rest period is on the horizon. Favorites in this scenario have performed exceptionally well against the spread, and this trend is also potent in divisional matchups. The Texans fit this mold.

The Jaguars return from their bye week, but this can often result in a lack of rhythm, especially following the Thanksgiving break. Trevor Lawrence, whether playing or not, faces challenges in this spot. If he starts, rust is likely to impact his effectiveness. If he doesn’t play, it is a nice opportunity to fade Mac Jones.

The Texans’ strong track record in first halves and their situational advantages make them an attractive option. Betting Houston at -2.5 for the first half offers a focused approach to capitalize on their strengths. Additionally, Houston’s full-game ATS line also warrants consideration for those confident in their bounce-back potential.

Pick: Texans 1H -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens

The Philadelphia Eagles enter this matchup riding high on a seven-game winning streak, but their run may meet its end against the Baltimore Ravens. While Philadelphia’s winning streak is impressive on the surface, much of it has come against subpar competition. Their relatively easy schedule raises questions about how they’ll handle a step up in class.

The Ravens had a dominant win over the Los Angeles Chargers, showcasing both offensive efficiency and situational mastery. They converted 2-of-2 red zone opportunities and were a perfect 3-of-3 on fourth downs, instilling some confidence into this matchup.

Baltimore’s rushing defense, ranked 8th in DVOA, is particularly noteworthy. It’s well-suited to limiting the impact of Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a historic performance and is due for regression.

As mentioned above: Home favorites during Thanksgiving week have historically performed well (49-24-0 ATS (67.1%) record since 2012), as have teams favored heading into a bye week (34-12 record (73.9%) since 2022). These trends align perfectly with Baltimore’s current position.

Baltimore has the tools to halt Philadelphia’s momentum, using their efficient offense, disciplined play, and strategic positioning to gain the upper hand. Expect a hard-fought game, but the Ravens have the edge in both preparation and execution, giving them a strong chance to hand the Eagles their first loss in over two months.

Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-115)

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