Category: Commentary

Welcome to the Part 2 of NFL Week 13 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 1 picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 20-17-2.

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NFL Week 13 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Fading home teams off OT win
• IV. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• V. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• VI. Post-Thanksgiving NFL Games: A Betting Trend to Watch
• VII. Bye Week Analysis
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 13 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Browns: 2-9 Team Total O/U this season
• Texans: 10-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-7 full game ATS)
• Titans: 3-10 ATS in L13 road games.
• Titans: 2-8-1 ATS this season.
• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Panthers: 9-1-1 1H O/U this season.
• Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
• Eagles: 2-9 1H O/U this season.
• Chargers: 9-1-1 1H ATS this season.
• Chargers: 7-1 ATS as favorites this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-10 O/U this season.
  

Not active this week (or already passed)

• Cowboys: 2-12 ATS in L14 games as underdogs.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Lions: 10-2 1H ATS this season.
• Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

For the second consecutive week, scoring surged, with Week 12 games averaging 47.7 points per game (PPG), up from Week 11’s 46.8 PPG. This has pushed the season-long average to 45.3 PPG. Overs dominated last week, going 10-3, while the median scoring hit an impressive 51 PPG. Despite this upward trend, there are reasons to expect a shift back toward lower-scoring games as the NFL season enters its late stages.

Heading into Week 13, the season’s overall record for totals stands at 94-83-3 to the over. Week 13’s average total of 45.2 has increased week-over-week, aligning with season-long scoring averages. Notably, the four early games in Week 13 have gone 3-1 to the under, suggesting a potential cooling of the scoring spike.

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Betting Strategies for Totals

To adapt to the late-season environment, consider the following:

• Target Inflated Totals
  Recent scoring spikes may inflate totals. Look for games where weather, pace, or situational factors hint at an under despite a higher line.
• Analyze Pace and Red Zone Efficiency
  Teams with slow pace or poor red-zone efficiency are prime under candidates. Their inability to convert drives into touchdowns keeps total points low.
• Monitor Weather Early
  Weather conditions impact totals closer to kickoff, but tracking forecasts early can uncover valuable opportunities before the market adjusts.

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While recent weeks have seen a scoring resurgence, late-season NFL football trends suggest that unders could regain prominence. Familiar matchups, conservative playoff strategies, and unpredictable weather all favor lower-scoring outcomes. As the market reacts to these fluctuations, sharp bettors can exploit value by aligning with these factors.

Stay disciplined, stay informed, and capitalize on the evolving landscape in Week 13 and beyond.

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III. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-32-4 record (62.8% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Vikings (play on the Cardinals +3.5) in Week 13.

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IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-2 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Texans (vs. Jaguars) in Week 13.

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V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Titans (fade the Commanders) in Week 13.

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VI. Post-Thanksgiving NFL Games: A Betting Trend to Watch

Sunday after Thanksgiving ATS Trends:
Since 2012, home teams have performed exceptionally well on the Sunday following Thanksgiving, with a strong 86-54-1 ATS (61.4%) record. The trend is even more pronounced for home favorites, who boast an impressive 49-24-0 ATS (67.1%) record during this period.

Impacted Teams in 2024:
In Week 13, the following teams fit the profile of home favorites:

• Buffalo Bills
• Baltimore Ravens
• Washington Commanders
• Minnesota Vikings
• Cincinnati Bengals

Why the Trend Matters

This trend may reflect the advantages of playing at home after a short preparation week. Teams traveling over Thanksgiving face unique challenges, such as disrupted schedules and holiday distractions, which can disproportionately impact visiting teams.

Key Takeaway:
While trends like these shouldn’t be the sole determinant of a wager, they can serve as a useful starting point. The Sunday after Thanksgiving has consistently favored home teams, especially those laying points. Keep an eye on the listed teams to see if the trend holds for another year.

This trend disputes some of the Baller Systems mentioned earlier.

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VII. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends

Favorites Before a Bye Week:
Since the start of the 2022 season, favorites heading into a bye week have performed exceptionally well against the spread (ATS), boasting a 34-12 record (73.9%). This trend has continued into the 2024 season with a 7-3 ATS record, highlighting the confidence and urgency with which these teams play before a well-earned break.

In Week 13 of 2024, this trend applies to the following teams:

• Indianapolis Colts
• Washington Commanders
• Houston Texans
• Baltimore Ravens
• Denver Broncos

Divisional Matchups Before a Bye Week:
Since 2015, teams playing divisional opponents before a bye week have an impressive 67-43 ATS (60.9%) record. These games often carry heightened importance, leading to focused performances. However, this trend hasn’t been as successful in 2024, with a 1-2-1 ATS record thus far.

This trend is active for the Houston Texans in Week 13, as they face the Denver Broncos. Despite the weaker performance of this subset in 2024, the broader trend remains worth considering.

Why the Trend Matters

Teams entering a bye week often play with extra intensity, aiming to capitalize on their final opportunity to secure a win before a break. This urgency is amplified for favorites, as they are typically better-equipped to dominate in such scenarios. Divisional matchups, in particular, add another layer of competitiveness, as teams aim to improve their standing within the division.

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NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans have been one of the NFL’s most reliable 1H teams this season at 10-2 1H ATS. They consistently establish early leads, showcasing discipline and efficiency in the opening two quarters. Somehow, they can’t seem to put it together in the second half.

Houston’s previous game saw a lack of discipline, with two turnovers and 11 penalties contributing to their loss against the Tennessee Titans. One of our Baller Systems show that favorites coming off multi-turnover games (as a favorite) tend to respond with sharper, more focused performances. Expect DeMeco Ryans and the Texans to clean up their mistakes and deliver a more composed effort.

Another Baller System active on the Texans states that since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing.

As mentioned above, teams heading into a bye week often perform well, knowing a rest period is on the horizon. Favorites in this scenario have performed exceptionally well against the spread, and this trend is also potent in divisional matchups. The Texans fit this mold.

The Jaguars return from their bye week, but this can often result in a lack of rhythm, especially following the Thanksgiving break. Trevor Lawrence, whether playing or not, faces challenges in this spot. If he starts, rust is likely to impact his effectiveness. If he doesn’t play, it is a nice opportunity to fade Mac Jones.

The Texans’ strong track record in first halves and their situational advantages make them an attractive option. Betting Houston at -2.5 for the first half offers a focused approach to capitalize on their strengths. Additionally, Houston’s full-game ATS line also warrants consideration for those confident in their bounce-back potential.

Pick: Texans 1H -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens

The Philadelphia Eagles enter this matchup riding high on a seven-game winning streak, but their run may meet its end against the Baltimore Ravens. While Philadelphia’s winning streak is impressive on the surface, much of it has come against subpar competition. Their relatively easy schedule raises questions about how they’ll handle a step up in class.

The Ravens had a dominant win over the Los Angeles Chargers, showcasing both offensive efficiency and situational mastery. They converted 2-of-2 red zone opportunities and were a perfect 3-of-3 on fourth downs, instilling some confidence into this matchup.

Baltimore’s rushing defense, ranked 8th in DVOA, is particularly noteworthy. It’s well-suited to limiting the impact of Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a historic performance and is due for regression.

As mentioned above: Home favorites during Thanksgiving week have historically performed well (49-24-0 ATS (67.1%) record since 2012), as have teams favored heading into a bye week (34-12 record (73.9%) since 2022). These trends align perfectly with Baltimore’s current position.

Baltimore has the tools to halt Philadelphia’s momentum, using their efficient offense, disciplined play, and strategic positioning to gain the upper hand. Expect a hard-fought game, but the Ravens have the edge in both preparation and execution, giving them a strong chance to hand the Eagles their first loss in over two months.

Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-115)

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Welcome to the NFL Week 12 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 17-15-2.

 
NFL Week 12 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Fading home teams off OT win
• V. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VI. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• VII. Thanksgiving Angles
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 12 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Browns: 2-9 Team Total O/U this season (including TNF)
• Dolphins: 0-10 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Texans: 10-1 1H ATS this season.
• Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
• Titans: 1-8-1 ATS this season.
• Lions: 8-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
• Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
• Cowboys: 2-12 ATS in L14 games as underdogs.
• Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
• Panthers: 8-1-1 1H O/U this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-10 O/U this season.
• Ravens: 9-2 O/U this season
• Chargers: 8-1-1 1H ATS this season.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
• Chargers: 3-12 O/U in L15 games as favorites
• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Cowboys: 0-7 ATS in L7 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

After a few weeks of lower scoring, NFL offenses found new life in Week 11, averaging 46.8 points per game and pushing the season-long average up to 45.1 PPG. Overs went 8-6 for the week, and the median scoring settled at 46.5 PPG. While this spike might suggest a return to high-scoring contests, there are compelling reasons to believe the NFL is still trending toward unders as the season enters its late stages.

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A Balanced Totals Market

The season’s overall totals record now stands at 84-80-3 to the over, highlighting how closely contested the over/under market has been. Week 12’s average total is set at 44.3, slightly below the scoring average for the week.

Despite the high-scoring performance in Week 11, several key factors support a broader trend toward lower-scoring games as the season progresses:

• Divisional Rematches: Late-season divisional matchups are notorious for lower scores. Teams facing each other for the second time in a season have already developed familiarity with their opponent’s schemes, which often results in more conservative play-calling and fewer explosive plays. These games tend to favor grinding, defensive battles over shootouts.

• Playoff Stakes: As playoff implications become more significant, teams in contention tend to tighten up their gameplay. Risk-averse strategies often emerge, emphasizing field position and ball security over aggressive downfield throws. This cautious approach can lead to slower-paced games and fewer points on the board. On the flip side, teams that are eliminated from playoff contention might use the remaining games to experiment with younger players or new schemes, which can lead to disjointed offensive performances and fewer scoring opportunities.
  
• Weather Impacts: Late November and December introduce unpredictable weather conditions, especially in outdoor stadiums. Cold temperatures, high winds, and precipitation can significantly impact passing and kicking efficiency, favoring lower-scoring games. Key Locations to Watch: Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, and Cleveland are prime examples of cities where weather conditions can swing game outcomes toward the under.

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Adapting Your Betting Strategy

For bettors looking to capitalize on this trend, here are a few considerations to keep in mind:

• Look for Inflated Totals
  Week 11’s scoring surge may lead to higher totals in Week 12 and beyond. Target games where matchups or situational factors suggest a lower-scoring game despite an inflated total.
  
• Focus on Pace of Play and Red Zone Efficiency
  Teams with slow pace of play or struggles in the red zone are strong under candidates. They may move the ball but fail to convert drives into touchdowns, which keeps scoring in check.
  
• Monitor Weather Early
  Weather-related impacts are often baked into lines closer to kickoff, but savvy bettors who track forecasts early can find value before the market adjusts.

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Final Thoughts

While Week 11 showcased a temporary resurgence in scoring, the broader landscape of late-season NFL football still favors unders. Defenses are adjusting, playoff stakes are influencing game strategies, and weather conditions will become increasingly impactful. As the market reacts to recent trends, sharp bettors can find value by identifying matchups and conditions that support lower-scoring outcomes.

Stay disciplined, adapt to shifting trends, and keep these factors in mind as you hunt for edges in the market. The late season is where careful analysis can pay off the most.

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III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 147-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 5 out of 6 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Chiefs -10.5 and Commanders -10.5, .

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IV. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Panthers (play on the Chiefs -10.5) in Week 12.

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V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

No active plays this week, but this is one of our favorite systems to follow.

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VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.

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VII. Thanksgiving Games

As Thanksgiving approaches, it’s time to examine how the holiday games influence betting outcomes. Historical trends since 2012 reveal actionable insights for this week and beyond, particularly for totals and spreads.

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Unders Leading Up to Thanksgiving

Teams with Thanksgiving games on the horizon tend to see lower-scoring contests the week before. Since 2012, these teams are a strong 40-23-1 to the under. This trend applies to the following matchups:

• Packers vs. 49ers
• Giants vs. Buccaneers
• Cowboys vs. Commanders
• Bears vs. Vikings
• Dolphins vs. Patriots
• Lions vs. Colts

Breaking it down further, teams hosting Thanksgiving games show an even stronger trend, going 25-10 to the under in the week prior. This narrows the focus to:

• Packers vs. 49ers
• Cowboys vs. Commanders
• Lions vs. Colts

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Spread Trends for Thanksgiving Teams

Road teams looking ahead to Thanksgiving games have excelled against the spread, posting a 15-6 record since 2012. This trend points to plays on:

• Cowboys +10.5
• Lions -7.5

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Thanksgiving Day Fade Opportunities

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day itself, historical data since 2011 shows home teams struggle to cover, going 13-25 ATS. This trend suggests fading the following teams on Thanksgiving:

• Packers
• Cowboys
• Lions

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Takeaways for Bettors

Thanksgiving creates unique situational betting opportunities. Unders have been particularly profitable in the lead-up to the holiday, while spreads favor road teams looking ahead to Thanksgiving games. On the day itself, home teams historically underperform, making them prime candidates for fades.

Keep these trends in mind as you prepare for the Thanksgiving slate and seek edges in the market.

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NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Carolina Panthers in Week 11, and the situational and historical betting trends strongly favor Kansas City in Week 12.

The Panthers are coming off a rare and emotional overtime win against the Giants in Germany, which sets them up for a letdown. Teams returning from a neutral-site game before a bye week have struggled historically, going 3-18-1 ATS since November 2018.

Betting against teams coming off an overtime victory has been one of the most reliable systems over the past decade. Since 2011, home teams in this situation are 54-31-4 ATS (62.7%). The Panthers are likely to be worn down from last week’s emotional and physical toll, in addition to the international travel.

Patrick Mahomes looks to rebound after a tough loss to the Bills, where he threw two interceptions and struggled to fully integrate DeAndre Hopkins into the offense. Facing the Panthers’ defense ranked 29th in Defensive DVOA, Mahomes has an opportunity to dominate with Hopkins. While betting on large spreads can be intimidating, history shows that favorites of 10+ points have been profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (147-114-10 ATS) since 2015. Chiefs are 8-2-1 ATS in road games after a loss, dating back to 2019.

The Panthers’ recent wins against weak competition (Saints, Giants) don’t inspire confidence when facing a top-tier team like Kansas City. The Chiefs are set for a bounce-back performance after losing their first game of the season.

Pick: Chiefs -10.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

The San Francisco 49ers travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in what shapes up as a defensive, low-scoring affair. With key trends and situational factors aligning, we’ve got our eyes set on the total.

The 49ers will be without quarterback Brock Purdy, a major shift that favors a slower-paced game plan. Expect San Francisco to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey and the ground attack, controlling the clock and limiting possessions. The 49ers have already demonstrated a trend toward low-scoring first halves on the road, going 4-0 to the 1H under this season.

This game is a rematch of last season’s playoff matchup, which further supports the under. Since 2018, playoff rematches in the regular season have trended significantly under the total, hitting at a remarkable 49-28-3 clip. The familiarity between these teams and the stakes typically lead to tighter, more defensive contests.

Teams playing the week before Thanksgiving historically see lower-scoring games. Since 2012, such teams are 40-23-1 to the under, with the trend even stronger for home teams hosting Thanksgiving games, going 25-10 to the under. This system applies to the Packers, who are likely focused on limiting mistakes and grinding out a win ahead of their Thanksgiving matchup.

With Purdy out, the 49ers relying on their run game, and multiple trends pointing toward lower scoring, the under 44.5 offers strong value despite some lost line movement.

Pick: Under 44.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Despite their improved play this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have struggled against the spread as underdogs. Over their last nine games in this role, they are a disappointing 1-7-1 ATS, casting doubt on their ability to rise to the occasion against strong competition.

The Ravens are coming off a surprising loss to the Steelers as favorites, but road favorites off a loss in this spot have historically bounced back strongly. Baltimore’s well-coached, disciplined team typically responds well to adversity, and this matchup provides the perfect opportunity to recalibrate. They are 9-1 ATS after their previous 10 losses.

While the Chargers have been red-hot, much of their recent success can be attributed to a soft schedule. Facing Baltimore represents a significant step up in competition, testing whether their resurgence is sustainable against a quality opponent.

The Ravens are in a great spot to bounce back, while the Chargers face questions about their ability to deliver against a top-tier team. The trends and situational angles favor Baltimore here.

Pick: Ravens -2.5

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