Category: Commentary

Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans

Why Detroit will cover:

• Jared Goff is performing at an MVP level and has built strong chemistry with his receivers, posing a significant threat to the Titans’ weakened secondary.
• Despite Tennessee’s solid run defense, Jahmyr Gibbs can exploit mismatches in the Titans’ linebacker coverage as a receiver, creating high-value plays out of the backfield.

Why Tennessee will cover:

• Detroit is in a “sandwich” spot, potentially looking past this game toward a divisional showdown with the Packers, which may reduce their intensity.
• Mason Rudolph’s conservative play may reduce turnovers, keeping Tennessee in the game for longer and providing an opportunity to cover as underdogs.

Why game will go over:

• Detroit’s explosive passing game can capitalize on Tennessee’s injury-depleted secondary, with potential for high-impact, deep throws.
• Will Levis’ return, if it happens, brings a high-variance style that could contribute big plays for both offenses through turnovers and deep shots.

Why game will go under:

• Tennessee’s conservative approach with Rudolph may limit offensive production, leaning toward shorter drives and fewer scoring chances.
• Detroit’s strong run defense will force Tennessee to rely on low-percentage passing plays, limiting sustained drives and potential points.

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

Why Cleveland will cover:

• Jameis Winston brings a more reliable passing game to Cleveland, improving their chances to keep up offensively. He’ll benefit from Njoku’s healthy presence and Tillman’s recent solid performance.
• Baltimore’s secondary ranks low in defensive EPA (23rd), creating opportunities for Cleveland’s passing game to take advantage, especially if Zay Flowers is limited or out.

Why Baltimore will cover:

• If Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts, Cleveland’s offense could struggle significantly, as he lacks experience and downfield passing reliability.
• Cleveland’s defense has been strong, but they have weaknesses against top receivers. Even with Flowers possibly limited, Baltimore has options to challenge Cleveland’s secondary.

Why game will go over:

• Winston’s willingness to take deep shots could lead to quick scoring drives or turnovers, both of which favor a higher score.
• If Baltimore’s defense, playing on short rest, struggles to contain Cleveland’s passing game, it could allow more scoring from both teams.

Why game will go under:

• If Thompson-Robinson starts, Cleveland’s offense may be unable to keep pace, leading to a slower game with limited scoring.
• Cleveland’s strong run defense could force Baltimore to be one-dimensional, reducing the Ravens’ ability to produce consistent scoring drives.
  

Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Green Bay will cover:

• Jordan Love’s second-half surge last week could carry into this game, especially with Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked defensive EPA and struggles against the pass.
• The Jaguars’ defense is weak against pass-catching backs, making Josh Jacobs a potential mismatch as a receiver, which could boost Green Bay’s offense.

Why Jacksonville will cover:

• The Packers may lack focus due to an upcoming divisional game against the Lions, potentially impacting their performance.
• If Jacksonville leans on their rushing attack, Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne could find success against Green Bay’s run defense, helping control the clock and keep the game close.

Why game will go over:

• Green Bay’s passing weapons like Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks could capitalize on Jacksonville’s vulnerable secondary, leading to quick scores.
• Jacksonville’s potential to exploit Green Bay’s defense through the run game could lead to consistent, high-yardage drives and scoring opportunities.

Why game will go under:

• If Green Bay’s strong pass rush disrupts Trevor Lawrence, it could stifle Jacksonville’s passing attack, slowing down their scoring pace.
• The Packers’ solid defense, paired with Jacksonville’s ability to defend the run, may limit both teams’ offensive efficiency, creating a slower, lower-scoring game.
  

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Why Houston will cover:

• The Texans’ defense has been solid against the run recently, and with the Colts leaning on Jonathan Taylor’s return, they may struggle to find offensive rhythm if the Texans can contain him.
• C.J. Stroud, despite missing Nico Collins, has shown resilience and an ability to adapt, and if Houston’s offense can capitalize on turnovers or short-field situations, they can keep pace with the Colts.

Why Indianapolis will cover:

• Anthony Richardson had his best game of the season against Houston’s defense in Week 1, using his scrambling ability to exploit their weaknesses against mobile quarterbacks.
• With Jonathan Taylor potentially returning, the Colts’ rushing attack gains versatility, making them harder to defend against and giving Richardson play-action opportunities.

Why game will go over:

• Houston’s tendency to play a conservative, run-heavy game might open up unexpected downfield shots if Indianapolis can pressure them to score, leading to potential quick scores or turnovers.
• Richardson’s big-play potential as a dual-threat quarterback, combined with Houston’s struggles against mobile QBs, could lead to explosive plays on both sides, increasing the point total.

Why game will go under:

• Houston’s predictable play-calling and reliance on the run game may lead to slower drives and less offensive production, limiting their scoring chances.
• Both defenses have strengths that can disrupt each offense’s primary playmakers, slowing down drives and keeping the scoring lower than expected.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals

Why Miami will cover:

• If Tua Tagovailoa starts, Miami’s offense should be able to take advantage of Arizona’s 24th-ranked run defense, especially with the depth in their backfield.
• Miami’s passing options in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle present challenges even for average secondaries, allowing Tagovailoa or Tyler Huntley to find success through explosive plays if utilized effectively.

Why Arizona will cover:

• Kyler Murray’s mobility and James Conner’s strong run game can exploit Miami’s weaknesses in run defense, especially with Miami ranking 19th against the run.
• If Tagovailoa returns from a concussion, there is a risk of a slower start as he readjusts, which could allow Arizona to build an early lead or keep the game close.

Why game will go over:

• Miami’s potential for big plays through Hill and Waddle, combined with Arizona’s vulnerability to the pass, sets up for a high-scoring affair, especially if Tagovailoa is active.
• Arizona’s ground game, led by Conner, and Miami’s struggles against the run could lead to consistent scoring opportunities from both sides.

Why game will go under:

• If Tagovailoa plays cautiously or Huntley starts, Miami’s offense may run conservatively, slowing the game pace and limiting scoring.
• Arizona’s focus on running the ball to exploit Miami’s weaker run defense could also lead to clock-consuming drives, which would help keep the score lower.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Why Tampa Bay will cover:

• Despite missing Evans and potentially Godwin, Tampa Bay could find success in the run game, as Atlanta’s run defense has struggled, allowing Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker, and Rachaad White to be effective.
• Atlanta’s weak pass rush may give Baker Mayfield the time he needs to work short-to-intermediate routes with secondary receivers, potentially sustaining drives and keeping the game within reach.

Why Atlanta will cover:

• Tampa Bay’s weakened receiver corps limits their offensive ceiling, making it challenging to consistently move the ball through the air against even a below-average secondary.
• With Tampa Bay missing key players on defense, especially in the secondary, Desmond Ridder and Atlanta’s offense can take advantage with big plays in the passing game.

Why game will go over:

• Both defenses have significant vulnerabilities; Atlanta’s weak pass rush and Tampa’s secondary injuries could result in unexpected offensive production for both teams.
• If Tampa Bay can establish a run game, it could create opportunities for play-action shots downfield, potentially leading to high-impact plays and scoring drives.

Why game will go under:

• The absence of key offensive playmakers like Evans and Godwin for Tampa Bay may lead to a slower-paced game, with Tampa leaning on the ground game and conservative passing.
• Both teams’ offenses could stall given the Buccaneers’ lack of receiving threats and the Falcons’ inconsistent offensive execution, leading to fewer scoring opportunities.
  

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Why New York will cover:

• Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ offense should capitalize on New England’s poor secondary, especially with Davante Adams back, which should allow them to move the ball through the air.
• New England’s run defense has been weak, making this an excellent opportunity for the Jets to exploit it with Breece Hall, who can help control the game and set up play-action.

Why New England will cover:

• The Jets’ inconsistencies and turnover issues from last game could resurface, particularly if they overlook the Patriots after having won the previous matchup.
• New England’s Drake Maye has shown flashes despite rookie mistakes, and if the Jets’ secondary is missing key players, he might find some success moving the ball.

Why game will go over:

• With the Jets likely to exploit New England’s weak run and pass defense, Rodgers and Hall could produce multiple scoring drives.
• If the Jets jump out to an early lead, it could force New England to abandon the run and rely on Maye’s passing game, increasing scoring opportunities on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• The Jets’ offensive inconsistencies and turnover issues, paired with New England’s limited offensive capabilities, could lead to a slow-paced, low-scoring game.
• Both teams may rely on their run games due to defensive vulnerabilities, leading to time-consuming drives and fewer scoring chances.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Why Philadelphia will cover:

• Saquon Barkley has been explosive, and with Cincinnati’s struggles against the run, he should be able to help the Eagles control the game and set up their passing attack.
• With A.J. Brown and other downfield threats, Jalen Hurts has options to exploit the Bengals’ weak secondary, especially given Cincinnati’s issues with No. 1 receivers.

Why Cincinnati will cover:

• The Bengals’ passing attack, led by Joe Burrow, has favorable matchups against Philadelphia’s secondary, especially with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins poised to stretch the field.
• Philadelphia’s shaky left tackle situation could leave Jalen Hurts exposed, allowing Cincinnati’s defense to generate pressure and disrupt the Eagles’ offense.

Why game will go over:

• Both offenses have potent passing options that can capitalize on each defense’s vulnerabilities, creating the potential for a high-scoring shootout.
• Cincinnati’s need to keep pace with Philadelphia could lead to an uptempo game with more frequent scoring opportunities on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• Philadelphia’s run-heavy approach with Barkley may eat up clock, reducing the total number of possessions and scoring chances.
• If Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles to protect Burrow, it could limit their ability to capitalize on the Eagles’ defensive weaknesses, leading to fewer points than expected.

Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks

Why Buffalo will cover:

• The recent addition of Amari Cooper adds depth and a true No. 1 threat, challenging Seattle’s secondary, which has struggled against top receivers and tight ends.
• Buffalo has begun to develop a balanced offensive attack with Ray Davis and James Cook, which can exploit Seattle’s 30th-ranked defense against the run, allowing for control of the game tempo.

Why Seattle will cover:

• Kenneth Walker’s expanded role as a pass-catcher could exploit Buffalo’s struggles against receiving backs, providing Seattle with a consistent offensive outlet.
• With D.K. Metcalf potentially sidelined, Buffalo’s defensive focus will shift heavily to Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but Seattle’s offensive creativity can still keep them in the game.

Why game will go over:

• Buffalo’s offensive potency, combined with Seattle’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggests opportunities for high-scoring drives on both sides, especially with Cooper and Kincaid drawing mismatches.
• Seattle’s versatile offense, with Walker involved in both rushing and receiving, could keep the scoring pace high as both teams aim to trade blows.

Why game will go under:

• The absence of Metcalf for Seattle limits their big-play potential, and the Bills may focus on a balanced, clock-controlling approach with their newly developed running game.
• If Buffalo’s defense can contain Seattle’s remaining receivers and focus on slowing Walker, it could result in a more methodical, lower-scoring game.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints

Why Los Angeles will cover:

• Justin Herbert has an opportunity to exploit a weakened Saints secondary, particularly if either starting cornerback remains sidelined, allowing Ladd McConkey to thrive in the slot.
• The Saints’ struggles against the run should allow J.K. Dobbins to find success on the ground, providing balance to the Chargers’ offense.

Why New Orleans will cover:

• New Orleans may be regaining several key players this week, including offensive linemen and skill players like Chris Olave, which could give their offense a much-needed boost.
• The Chargers are in a tough scheduling spot, having just played on Monday night, which historically leads to a lower cover rate, especially on short rest.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams face defensive weaknesses that can be exploited: the Chargers can capitalize on New Orleans’ weak secondary, while the Saints, with reinforcements, could find offensive success against a fatigued Chargers squad.
• Herbert’s pass-first approach, combined with the Saints’ reliance on Alvin Kamara and returning receivers, can lead to high yardage and scoring.

Why game will go under:

• If the Chargers establish a solid run game to control the clock, it could limit the total number of possessions and reduce scoring chances.
• Spencer Rattler’s inexperience and the Chargers’ strong pass rush could lead to stalled drives, turnovers, and fewer points for New Orleans.

Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears

Why Washington will cover:

• Brian Robinson has a favorable matchup against Chicago’s run defense, potentially allowing Washington to control the clock and keep the game close, especially if Mariota can manage the offense effectively.
• The Bears’ secondary struggles could give Mariota some room to work with short, high-percentage passes, which might help limit the impact of Chicago’s pressure on him.

Why Chicago will cover:

• With Jayden Daniels likely sidelined, the Bears’ sixth-ranked pressure rate can rattle Marcus Mariota, who may struggle behind Washington’s shaky offensive line.
• D’Andre Swift’s recent improvements as a runner and pass-catcher will likely challenge Washington’s questionable run defense, creating openings for Caleb Williams and Chicago’s talented receiving corps.

Why game will go over:

• If both teams can exploit the weaknesses in each other’s run defense, there’s potential for explosive plays and sustained drives, leading to a higher score.
• The Bears’ offense, with Williams finding time to throw, should be able to generate consistent scoring opportunities against Washington’s vulnerable secondary.

Why game will go under:

• Mariota’s limited downfield passing game and Washington’s reliance on the run with Robinson could lead to a slow-paced, low-scoring game.
• If Chicago’s defense pressures Mariota effectively and limits Washington’s offensive output, the Redskins could struggle to put up points, keeping the total low.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Why Kansas City will cover:

• Patrick Mahomes can rely on the run game with Kareem Hunt against a Raiders defense that struggles to stop the run, creating easier opportunities for Mahomes to manage the offense without key receivers.
• Kansas City’s elite pressure rate will likely force Gardner Minshew into turnovers, capitalizing on his tendency to make mistakes when under heavy pressure.

Why Las Vegas will cover:

• Kansas City may lack full motivation after an emotional win against the 49ers, potentially experimenting with plays and formations, which could allow the Raiders to keep the game closer.
• The Raiders’ defense, despite recent setbacks, has defended tight ends well this season, which could limit Mahomes’ options if his primary receivers are unavailable.

Why game will go over:

• Kansas City’s creative offense, even with limited playmakers, could still find ways to put points on the board, especially if the Raiders can’t sustain their defense against the run.
• If Minshew finds success targeting Brock Bowers, it could keep the Raiders in the game and increase the scoring pace on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• With Mahomes possibly leaning on the running game due to missing receivers, Kansas City could slow the game’s tempo, leading to fewer total possessions and points.
• Kansas City’s pass rush and strong run defense may prevent the Raiders from sustaining drives, keeping the overall score lower.

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

Why Denver will cover:

• Carolina’s defense is among the worst in the league, ranking last in pressure rate despite frequent blitzing, which should give Bo Nix plenty of time to connect with open receivers.
• Javonte Williams faces a favorable matchup against a Panthers run defense that has been consistently overpowered, allowing Denver to control the game on the ground.

Why Carolina will cover:

• Coming off a blowout loss, the Panthers have a chance to keep this game close as Denver may be overlooking them with Baltimore on deck.
• Denver’s recent win may lead to overvaluation, while Carolina, despite struggles, has shown the ability to move the ball occasionally under Andy Dalton, though this is limited with Bryce Young starting.

Why game will go over:

• Denver’s offensive efficiency, especially on the ground with Williams and with Nix’s ample time in the pocket, could result in a high-scoring game if Carolina’s defense fails to make stops.
• Carolina’s defense has given up points consistently, and even a limited Denver offense should be able to score, especially if turnovers from the Panthers contribute to short-field situations.

Why game will go under:

• With Bryce Young back in at quarterback, Carolina’s offense may struggle to sustain drives against a high-pressure Denver defense, reducing scoring chances.
• Denver may lean heavily on the run game with Williams, which could drain the clock and limit the total number of possessions.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Why San Francisco will cover:

• The Cowboys’ lack of pass rush due to injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence should give Brock Purdy ample time in the pocket, enabling him to connect with his remaining healthy targets.
• Jordan Mason has a favorable matchup against Dallas’ weak run defense, which could allow San Francisco to control the clock and the tempo of the game.

Why Dallas will cover:

• San Francisco’s offense is heavily impacted by injuries, particularly to Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings, potentially limiting their scoring capacity.
• The Cowboys may capitalize on mismatches with Jalen Tolbert and Rico Dowdle, exploiting San Francisco’s relative weakness to secondary receivers and pass-catching running backs.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams may be forced to lean on their remaining offensive strengths, with San Francisco pounding the run and Dallas seeking quick, efficient passing plays to compensate for line issues, resulting in scoring drives on both ends.
• If Dallas’ weakened pass rush allows Purdy to operate comfortably, San Francisco’s offense could find rhythm and sustain high-scoring drives despite missing key players.

Why game will go under:

• With major injuries on both sides affecting offensive production, each team may struggle to find consistency, especially if San Francisco lacks key playmakers and Dallas contends with offensive line struggles.
• San Francisco’s strong defensive front could disrupt Dallas’ offense, while San Francisco’s run-heavy approach with Mason may slow down the game, reducing scoring opportunities.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants

Why Pittsburgh will cover:

• If Russell Wilson’s resurgence continues, he can exploit a Giants’ defense that lacks consistent pass rush despite some talent, especially if George Pickens continues his success with contested catches.
• Pittsburgh’s defensive front, led by T.J. Watt, can capitalize on the Giants’ injury-weakened offensive line, forcing Daniel Jones into hurried throws and potential turnovers.

Why New York will cover:

• The Steelers’ offensive line is weakened, giving the Giants’ pass rush an opportunity to disrupt Wilson and prevent him from finding a rhythm.
• The Steelers have struggled historically as favorites following a big win, and the Giants, coming off a blowout loss, are likely to be more motivated and play at a higher level in this spot.

Why game will go over:

• Both defenses have vulnerabilities, and with contested deep throws from Wilson and occasional big plays from Tyrone Tracy, both offenses could generate enough points to push the total over.
• If the Giants’ defense struggles to contain Pickens and Watt disrupts the Giants’ pass game, short fields and quick scoring drives could make for a higher-scoring game.

Why game will go under:

• The pass rushes from both teams could stall drives and lead to a defensive battle, with Pittsburgh’s O-line injuries and the Giants’ pressure on Wilson limiting offensive production.
• New York’s weakened offensive line, combined with their limited ground game, might struggle to sustain drives, slowing the game pace and reducing total points.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

Why Jacksonville will cover:

• Run game improvement: With Travis Etienne out, Tank Bigsby is expected to take over as the lead back, which could be a significant upgrade given his explosive performance last week. New England’s weak run defense could struggle to contain Bigsby.
• Trevor Lawrence’s favorable matchup: The Patriots struggle in pass coverage, and with Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram as reliable targets, Lawrence has plenty of weapons to exploit New England’s vulnerable secondary.

Why New England will cover:

• Drake Maye’s improvement potential: While Maye had some struggles in his first start, he has shown flashes of strong play, and Jacksonville’s weak secondary gives him a chance to bounce back and make plays through the air.
• Jacksonville’s inconsistency: The Jaguars have been unpredictable, and Lawrence has missed multiple open receivers throughout the season. If Jacksonville’s offense stumbles again, the Patriots could keep this game within reach.

Why the game will go over:

• Jaguars’ offensive firepower: With Lawrence, Bigsby, and talented receivers, Jacksonville should be able to score efficiently against a struggling Patriots defense, leading to a high-scoring affair.
• New England’s desperation: The Patriots, led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye, could put up points in garbage time or find success against Jacksonville’s leaky secondary, contributing to a higher total.

Why the game will go under:

• Jacksonville’s defense limiting New England: The Jaguars’ pass rush could pressure Maye into mistakes, limiting the Patriots’ scoring chances and keeping the total low.
• Patriots’ struggles on offense: With a banged-up offensive line and limited weapons for Maye, New England could struggle to move the ball and score, leading to a low-scoring game.
  

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Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

Why Seattle will cover:

• Geno Smith faces a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that struggles to generate pressure, giving him time to exploit their secondary.
• Kenneth Walker can dominate the Falcons’ weak run defense, which struggled against less dynamic backs like Chuba Hubbard.

Why Atlanta will cover:

• The Falcons’ rushing attack can control the game against a Seahawks defense that has allowed significant rushing yards.
• With Seattle missing key cornerbacks, Kirk Cousins could exploit their secondary, especially targeting Kyle Pitts.

Why the game will go over:

• Both defenses have exploitable weaknesses in the secondary, leading to big passing plays from Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins.
• Both teams have strong running games capable of extending drives and creating scoring opportunities.

Why the game will go under:

• Seattle’s pass rush could force Cousins into mistakes and limit Atlanta’s ability to score consistently.
• If the Falcons focus on a ball-control run-heavy approach, it could slow the pace of the game and limit overall points.
  

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Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Why Buffalo will cover:

• Josh Allen’s mobility will be a key factor against Tennessee’s poor linebacking group, leading to big plays both on the ground and through the air.
• The Titans’ secondary is weakened by injuries, and Allen should have no trouble exploiting this matchup, even with a limited receiving corps.

Why Tennessee will cover:

• The Titans’ run game, led by Tony Pollard, can exploit Buffalo’s weak rush defense and keep the game close by controlling the clock.
• Buffalo may be coming off an emotional win and a short week, leading to a potential letdown performance.

Why the game will go over:

• Josh Allen’s ability to generate explosive plays, combined with Tennessee’s potential success on the ground, could lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides.
• The Titans’ defense has struggled, and Buffalo’s offense could pile on points quickly.

Why the game will go under:

• If Tennessee controls the tempo with its running game, it could limit the number of possessions and scoring opportunities.
• Buffalo’s defense, despite some weaknesses, could stifle Tennessee’s limited passing attack and keep the scoring low.
  

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Why Cincinnati will cover:

• Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that struggles against elite receivers.
• The Browns’ limited offensive firepower, especially with uncertainty around Nick Chubb’s effectiveness, could allow Cincinnati to control the game.

Why Cleveland will cover:

• Myles Garrett’s pressure on Burrow could disrupt Cincinnati’s offense, which has struggled with offensive line protection all season.
• Cleveland’s run game, even with a limited Chubb, should still have success against the Bengals’ shaky run defense.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams have exploitable defensive weaknesses, with Cincinnati vulnerable against the run and Cleveland’s secondary exposed by top-tier receivers like Chase.
• If Burrow bounces back from his struggles, the Bengals could put up significant points, pushing the total over.

Why the game will go under:

• Cleveland’s ball-control offense, led by the run game, could shorten the game and limit overall possessions.
• Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles could lead to a low-scoring defensive battle, especially with Myles Garrett wreaking havoc.
  

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Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans

Why Green Bay will cover:

• Jordan Love is coming off a breakout performance and faces a Texans defense that struggles to stop the pass and defend the run.
• The Packers’ strong run defense will force Houston into passing situations, where C.J. Stroud could struggle without key receiving targets.

Why Houston will cover:

• The Texans’ run game, led by Joe Mixon, can exploit Green Bay’s inconsistent rush defense, keeping the game close.
• Houston’s ability to move the ball aerially against Green Bay’s banged-up secondary gives them a chance to cover.

Why the game will go over:

• Green Bay’s offense, with Jordan Love healthy, could exploit Houston’s defense both on the ground and through the air.
• Houston’s passing attack could have some success against Green Bay’s secondary, leading to a higher-scoring affair.

Why the game will go under:

• If both teams focus on the run, the pace of the game could slow down significantly, limiting scoring opportunities.
• Green Bay’s defense could stifle Houston’s passing game, especially if the Texans are without key receivers.
  

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Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts

Why Miami will cover:

• Tyler Huntley can exploit the Colts’ weak secondary with the help of dynamic playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
• The Dolphins’ rushing attack, featuring Raheem Mostert, should find success against Indianapolis’ struggling run defense.

Why Indianapolis will cover:

• Anthony Richardson’s mobility could exploit Miami’s weak linebacker group, allowing him to extend drives and put the Colts in a position to cover.
• If the Colts control the pace with a strong run game, they can keep Miami’s offense off the field and cover the spread.

Why the game will go over:

• Miami’s explosive offense, combined with Richardson’s potential for big plays, could push the total over.
• Both defenses have struggled at times, leading to more scoring opportunities for both teams.

Why the game will go under:

• If the Colts control the game with their run-heavy approach, it could limit possessions and scoring chances.
• Miami’s defense, despite some weaknesses, could limit Richardson’s ability to generate big plays, keeping the score down.

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Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Why Minnesota will cover:

• Sam Darnold will have plenty of time in the pocket to exploit Detroit’s secondary with Hutchinson out, leading to big passing plays.
• The Vikings are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare and rest key players.

Why Detroit will cover:

• Jared Goff has been efficient against the blitz this season, and Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense may struggle to contain him.
• The Lions’ defense, despite losing Hutchinson, is strong against the run, forcing the Vikings to be one-dimensional.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have the ability to exploit the opposing defenses, especially with Goff’s efficiency and Darnold’s passing ability.
• The Vikings’ pass defense has been vulnerable to top receivers, and Detroit could take advantage.

Why the game will go under:

• If Detroit controls the clock with a ball-control offense, it could limit the number of possessions and keep the total under.
• Minnesota’s defense, particularly in the red zone, could limit Detroit’s scoring opportunities.
  

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Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

Why Philadelphia will cover:

• Despite some offensive inconsistencies, the Eagles have enough firepower with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to exploit the Giants’ pass defense.
• Philadelphia’s defense can generate pressure on Daniel Jones, leading to turnovers and big defensive plays.

Why New York will cover:

• The Giants’ pass rush, led by Brian Burns, can disrupt Jalen Hurts without the protection of Jordan Mailata, forcing the Eagles into mistakes.
• With Malik Nabers returning, New York’s offense can exploit Philadelphia’s weak secondary and keep the game close.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams have explosive playmakers capable of creating big plays, especially with the Eagles’ dynamic offense and the Giants’ weapons in the passing game.
• The Eagles’ secondary has struggled, and the Giants should be able to put up points through the air.

Why the game will go under:

• The Giants’ pass rush could slow down the Eagles’ offense, limiting scoring opportunities for Philadelphia.
• Both teams could struggle to sustain drives due to offensive line issues, keeping the total under.
  

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Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders

Why Los Angeles will cover:

• With Cooper Kupp potentially returning, Matthew Stafford has a major weapon to exploit the Raiders’ weakened pass defense.
• The Raiders struggle to stop the run, and Kyren Williams could have a big game on the ground, helping the Rams control the game.

Why Las Vegas will cover:

• The Raiders have faced blowout losses, making them more motivated, and they can exploit the Rams’ poor run defense with Zamir White.
• The Rams are coming off a bye and may be overlooking the Raiders with a bigger game ahead, giving Las Vegas a chance to keep it close.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams have defensive weaknesses that can be exploited, particularly with Los Angeles’ passing game and Las Vegas’ run attack.
• If Kupp plays, the Rams’ offense could generate enough points to push the total over, especially with the Raiders’ struggles.

Why the game will go under:

• The Raiders’ injuries and uncertainty on offense could lead to fewer points, especially if they struggle to move the ball consistently.
• If the Rams build an early lead, they could focus on the run, slowing down the game and keeping the total under.
  

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New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Why New York will cover:

• The Jets’ new offensive firepower with the addition of Davante Adams gives Aaron Rodgers elite weapons to exploit Pittsburgh’s defense.
• Pittsburgh’s offensive line injuries could allow the Jets’ defense to control the game, limiting the Steelers’ offensive success.

Why Pittsburgh will cover:

• Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, and Pittsburgh’s defense could generate pressure on Rodgers, leading to turnovers and mistakes.
• Russell Wilson’s experience, even with his struggles, could be enough to keep the game close if he avoids turnovers.

Why the game will go over:

• The Jets’ upgraded offense, with Rodgers, Adams, and Wilson, could put up significant points against a banged-up Steelers defense.
• Pittsburgh’s offense, despite limitations, could take advantage of the Jets’ potential defensive lapses, leading to a higher-scoring game.

Why the game will go under:

• Both defenses have strengths that could limit scoring opportunities, especially with Pittsburgh’s ability to pressure Rodgers and the Jets’ ability to shut down Russell Wilson’s weapons.
• If the game becomes a defensive battle, with both teams struggling to sustain drives, the total could stay under.
  

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Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Baltimore will cover:

• The Ravens’ run-heavy attack, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, has been dominant, and Tampa Bay’s secondary has issues with injuries.
• Even if the Buccaneers slow down the run, Jackson has the ability to exploit their weak pass defense, especially with Jamel Dean out.

Why Tampa Bay will cover:

• Tampa Bay’s strong run defense, anchored by Vita Vea, can slow down Henry and force Jackson into passing situations where turnovers are possible.
• With a healthy offensive line and talented receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Baker Mayfield can take advantage of the Ravens’ poor secondary.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have the potential to score points quickly, with Jackson’s dual-threat ability and Tampa Bay’s passing game against a shaky Ravens defense.
• Tampa Bay’s run defense could force Baltimore to rely more on the passing game, leading to more scoring opportunities.

Why the game will go under:

• If Tampa Bay successfully shuts down Baltimore’s rushing attack, it could limit the Ravens’ scoring potential and lead to a lower-scoring affair.
• Baltimore’s defense, despite weaknesses, could limit Tampa Bay’s offensive success, especially if they can get pressure on Mayfield.
  

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Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Why Arizona will cover:

• Trey McBride has emerged as a key weapon for Kyler Murray, and the Chargers struggle to defend tight ends, allowing McBride to have a big impact on the game.
• The Cardinals, coming off a blowout loss, will be more motivated and focused to bounce back, with Murray’s ability to extend plays giving them a chance to keep it close.

Why Los Angeles will cover:

• The Chargers’ balanced offense, with J.K. Dobbins exploiting Arizona’s poor run defense, will allow Los Angeles to control the game and open up play-action opportunities for Justin Herbert.
• Arizona’s pass rush is among the worst in the NFL, giving Herbert ample time to pick apart their leaky secondary and generate explosive plays.

Why the game will go over:

• The Chargers’ offense should be able to score at will against a weak Cardinals defense, both on the ground and through the air, leading to a high-scoring output.
• Trey McBride’s potential impact and Kyler Murray’s ability to create plays could keep the Cardinals competitive, pushing the total over.

Why the game will go under:

• If Arizona’s offense struggles without Marvin Harrison Jr., their ability to move the ball and score could be significantly limited, keeping the total under.
• The Chargers could dominate the game on the ground with Dobbins, which would slow down the pace and limit overall scoring opportunities.