Category: Commentary

Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 15 Newsletter picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 25-19-2.

NFL Week 16 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• IV. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• V. Double-Digit Favorites
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 16 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Titans: 2-12 ATS this season
• Ravens: 11-3 O/U this season
• Panthers: 10-3-1 1H O/U this season
• Dolphins: 2-12 1H Team Total O/U this season
• Texans: 12-2 1H ATS this season (but only 6-8 full game ATS)
• Steelers: 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
• Lions: 11-3 1H ATS this season
• Bears: 4-10 1H ATS this season
• Browns: 3-11 Team Total O/U this season
• Bills: 12-2 Team Total O/U this season
• Bengals: 10-4 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in L17 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
  

Not active this week or already passed:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
• Giants: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs
• Broncos: 10-3-2 1H O/U
• Chargers: 11-2-2 1H ATS this season
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 3-12 O/U this season.
• Bears: 0-7 1H ATS on the road this season.
• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Scoring Trends and Week 15 Recap
Scoring took another dip in Week 15, with games averaging 44.9 points per game (PPG). This marks a noticeable drop from the 47.3 PPG seen in Week 14, reinforcing the downward trajectory as the season heads into its final stretch. The median scoring also reflected this shift, landing at 43.5 points. The season-long scoring average remains at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 15 ended 7-8-1 O/U, showing a slightly under-leaning trend.

Season Trends and Outlook

• Season-long totals record: 114-106-4 to the over.
• Week 16 average total: 44.5, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.

While the over has held a slight edge throughout the season, recent weeks indicate a gradual shift toward lower-scoring games, aligning with historical late-season patterns.

Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders

1. Divisional Familiarity
   As teams meet for the second time in a season, defenses are more prepared for offensive schemes, limiting explosive plays. This often leads to more conservative play-calling and defensive adjustments, keeping scores in check.
2. Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
   With playoff spots at stake, contenders shift focus to minimizing mistakes. Strategies emphasize ball security and field position over aggressive, high-risk plays, which can naturally lead to lower-scoring affairs.
3. Weather Conditions
   December football in outdoor stadiums introduces unpredictable weather variables. Cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation can disrupt passing and kicking efficiency, forcing teams to lean on their run games and drain the clock.

Week 16 Takeaways
The combination of reduced scoring and a slightly lower average total for Week 16 signals that oddsmakers are starting to price in these late-season dynamics. Nevertheless, this environment creates opportunities for sharp bettors to identify value, particularly in divisional matchups and games with playoff implications.

Staying ahead of market shifts and recognizing situational factors will be crucial for success in totals betting as the regular season winds down. Focus on weather reports, divisional rivalries, and teams in playoff contention to pinpoint the best under opportunities.

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III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 53-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 9-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Lions (vs. Bears) in Week 16.

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IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 162-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 11-5 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Broncos (fade the Chargers) in Week 16. (This lost on Thursday Night Football)

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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 155-119-10 ATS. (6-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 46-31-4 ATS (59.7%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Bills -14 this week against the Patriots and Packers -14 against the Saints.

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NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Game Breakdown:
The Detroit Lions are in prime position for a bounce-back performance as they face the struggling Chicago Bears. The Bears are facing a challenging set of circumstances, coming off a short week after their Monday Night Football game and already looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football contest. This situational disadvantage is compounded by their return home after three consecutive road games, often a spot associated with letdown performances.

For the Lions, the injury report earlier in the week painted a concerning picture, but the reality has turned out to be less severe. While David Montgomery will sit this game out, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than ready to take on the primary rushing duties. On the other hand, the Bears continue to spiral downward, having lost eight straight games.

Historical Trends Favor the Lions:
Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more who are coming off a loss as home favorites have delivered an impressive 53-22-4 ATS record.

Teams that unexpectedly lose at home as favorites often rebound with focused and dominant performances in their following game. Being listed as road favorites after such a loss indicates confidence from oddsmakers and suggests the potential for a commanding response.

Key Betting Trends:

• Lions: 11-3 1H ATS (First Half Against the Spread)
• Bears: 4-10 1H ATS

The Lions’ first-half dominance this season, coupled with the Bears’ struggles, makes this a strong play. Expect Detroit to come out aggressive and build an early lead against a weary Chicago team.

Pick: Lions 1H -3.5

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Two Baller Systems are active on the under for this matchup, highlighting favorable conditions for a low-scoring affair. One system triggers when the market total is substantially lower than average scoring trends, while the other activates for home underdogs who have a Thursday game ahead.

Geno Smith is likely to be less than 100% as he faces a stout Vikings defense (#2 in Defensive DVOA). Both teams are in challenging situational spots – the Vikings are coming off short rest after a Monday Night Football game and have key divisional matchups looming against the Packers and Lions. Similarly, the Seahawks have a Thursday Night Football game on the horizon.

Seattle has consistently hit the under when playing as home underdogs, posting a 4-1 record to the under in those situations. With two strong defensive teams squaring off and situational angles aligning, this game leans heavily towards a lower total.

Pick: Under 42.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers have consistently exceeded expectations this season with a 10-4 ATS record. Baker Mayfield continues to lead the charge effectively, and the offense benefits from strong contributions by Bucky Irving, who is confirmed to be available for this matchup. With the Atlanta Falcons close behind in the divisional race, the Buccaneers must maintain their winning momentum.

Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in a less urgent position, as their season is effectively over. Cooper Rush steps in at quarterback, but there is little confidence in his ability to steer the team, especially following an outright win as underdogs. This creates a classic letdown scenario.

Key Betting Trends:

• Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Expect Tampa Bay to continue their strong form and cover the spread against a Cowboys team with little left to play for.

Pick: Buccaneers -4

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Welcome to the NFL Week 15 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 14 Newsletter picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 23-18-2.

NFL Week 15 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• IV. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• V. Double-Digit Favorites
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 14 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Titans: 2-10-1 ATS this season
• Bengals: 4-0 ATS as road favorites
• Giants: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs
• Ravens: 10-3 O/U this season
• Panthers: 10-2-1 1H O/U this season
• Dolphins: 2-11 1H Team Total O/U this season
• Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
• Broncos: 10-3 ATS (4-0 ATS as home favorites)
• Broncos: 10-2-1 1H O/U (4-0 1H O/U as home favorites)
• Chargers: 10-2-1 1H ATS this season
• Chargers: 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 2-11 O/U this season.
• Chargers: 2-8-1 ATS in L11 games as underdogs
• Steelers: 10-3 ATS this season (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
• Steelers: 3-9 1H O/U this season
• Eagles: 4-9 1H O/U this season (1-4 1H O/U at home)
• Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season
• Bills: 11-2 Team Total O/U this season
• Bears: 0-6 1H ATS on the road this season.
• Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 3-13 ATS in L16 games as underdogs.
  

Not active this week:

• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Scoring cooled off slightly in Week 14, with games averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG), a slight dip from Week 13’s 48.4 PPG. The median scoring also reflected this shift at 47 points, compared to the previous week’s elevated scoring pace. The season-long scoring average now stands at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 14 finished 6-7 O/U, highlighting a balanced but slightly under-leaning week.

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Season Trends

• Season-long totals record: 107-98-3 to the over.
• Week 15 average total: 45.0, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.

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Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders

1. Divisional Familiarity
   Teams meeting for the second time in a season tend to limit explosive plays, leaning into more cautious play-calling and defensive adjustments.
2. Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
   With playoff spots on the line, contenders often employ conservative strategies, prioritizing ball security and field position over high-risk, high-reward plays.
3. Weather Conditions
   December games in outdoor stadiums can be heavily influenced by cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation, which impact both passing and kicking efficiency. This can lead to a slower pace and fewer points.

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Week 15 Takeaways

The slight decrease in scoring and the lower average total for Week 15 suggest the market is beginning to account for late-season trends. However, these conditions create opportunities for sharp bettors to target potential unders, especially in divisional matchups and games with significant playoff implications.

As the season progresses, staying disciplined and adapting to the evolving scoring environment will be critical for finding value in totals betting. strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.

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III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 52-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 8-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Ravens (vs. Giants) in Week 15.

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IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 161-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 10-4 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Buccaneers (fade the Chargers) in Week 15.

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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.4% clip, going 154-119-10 ATS. (5-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Ravens -16.5 this week against the Panthers.

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NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

The Baltimore Ravens head into their matchup against the New York Giants as double-digit road favorites, and for good reason. This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore to bounce back, backed by favorable trends and situational advantages.

The Ravens come off a bye week with extra rest and preparation, a critical factor as they look to rebound from an poor showing against Philadelphia. Baltimore benefits from a classic Baller System: backing road favorites coming off a loss as home favorites. Historically, teams in this situation have performed well, and the Ravens’ dominant roster and added motivation make them prime candidates to continue that trend.

On the other side, the Giants have all but packed it in for the season. With Tommy DeVito under center, their offense remains among the least effective in the league. The team is seemingly shifting its focus toward rebuilding, with their eyes set on next season and potentially securing a favorable draft position.

A particularly glaring trend works against the Giants: they are 0-7 ATS in the first half as home underdogs. This highlights their inability to compete early in games, a pattern that seems unlikely to change against a rested and motivated Ravens team.

The combination of situational advantages for Baltimore and the Giants’ season-long struggles makes this an appealing spot to back the Ravens early. Ravens 1H is the recommended play, capitalizing on their preparation and the Giants’ consistent first-half woes.

Pick: Ravens 1H -8.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

This game features two of our favorite Baller Systems that both favor the under. The setup presents a strong case for a lower-scoring affair, driven by situational and performance factors for both teams.

The Bengals come into this game off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football. Their thrilling win against Dallas featured a miraculous touchdown after a botched blocked kick, making it an emotionally taxing victory. With a divisional showdown against the Browns looming, Cincinnati may struggle to maintain focus and perform at their best.

Adding to their woes, the Bengals’ defense has been underwhelming and inconsistent, which would typically favor the over. However, Tennessee’s lackluster offense mitigates this concern. The Titans rank 31st in Offensive DVOA, making them one of the least efficient offenses in the league.

The line for this game is particularly revealing and supports a play on the under. Considering the Bengals’ poor scheduling spot, their potential letdown, and Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this game aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. Backing the under is the move in this matchup.

Pick: Under 46.5

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

The Packers enter this matchup with a significant rest advantage, while the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. Seattle is coming off an upset victory against a divisional opponent and now returns home after spending the past two weeks on the road. This situation is often a classic letdown spot, as teams struggle to maintain intensity after emotional road wins.

On the other hand, Green Bay is seeking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Lions. A key Baller System is active here, favoring the Packers:

• Fade Underdogs After a Game with Two or More Rushing Touchdowns.
  This system highlights the unsustainability of teams relying heavily on the ground game to secure a win. Historical data shows that such performances are unlikely to repeat consistently, especially when injuries impact key contributors.

Seattle’s reliance on the run game becomes even more concerning with Kenneth Walker’s status in question. If Walker is unavailable or limited, the Seahawks’ offense could struggle to replicate their success from the previous game, creating a significant edge for Green Bay. Backing the Packers is the play here.

Pick: Packers -2.5 (-115)

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Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 2 picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 21-18-2.

NFL Week 14 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Fading home teams off OT win
• IV. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• V. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• VI. Double-Digit Favorites
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 14 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Panthers: 9-2-1 1H O/U this season.
• Titans: 2-9-1 ATS this season.
• Chargers: 10-1-1 1H ATS this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-11 O/U this season.
• Chargers: 1-8-1 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
• Bears: 0-5 1H ATS on the road this season.
• Bills: 10-2 Team Total O/U this season.
• Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 3-12 ATS in L15 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
  

Not active this week:

• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
• Chargers: 8-1 ATS as favorites this season.
• Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
• Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
• Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Scoring has been on an upward trend for the third consecutive week, with Week 13 games averaging 48.4 points per game (PPG). This marks an increase from 47.7 PPG in Week 12 and 46.8 PPG in Week 11. However, this rise is slightly skewed by high-scoring games like Steelers vs. Bengals (82 points) and Broncos vs. Browns (73 points). Excluding these outliers, the median scoring sits at 46 PPG, revealing the average is somewhat inflated. The season-long scoring average has now ticked up to 45.6 PPG.

Totals betting in Week 13 ended 7-8 O/U, a mixed result that reflects this upward scoring trend but hints at potential shifts in Week 14.

Season Trends and Week 14 Outlook

• Season-long totals record: 101-91-3 to the over.
• Week 14 average total: 45.4, consistent with season-long scoring.

Despite the recent scoring spike, historical trends suggest a late-season shift toward lower-scoring games. This is often driven by divisional familiarity, more conservative game plans for playoff contenders, and weather impacts.

Strategies for Betting Totals in Week 14

1. Target Inflated Totals: Higher lines stemming from recent scoring surges may create value for unders, especially where pace, weather, or situational factors point to fewer points.
2. Focus on Pace and Red Zone Efficiency: Teams playing at slower paces or with struggles in the red zone are prime under candidates.
3. Monitor Weather Conditions: Early forecasts can reveal opportunities for unders before the market reacts.

Key Takeaways

As Week 14 approaches, disciplined bettors can capitalize on potential market inefficiencies caused by scoring trends. Late-season dynamics—such as familiarity, playoff implications, and unpredictable weather—make unders an appealing strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.

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III. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 55-32-4 record (63.2% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 4-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Buccaneers (play on the Raiders +6.5) in Week 14.

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IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Bengals (vs. Cowboys) in Week 14.

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V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 160-108-3 ATS (59.7%). Backing this has gone 9-4 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Seahawks (fade the Cardinals) in Week 14.

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VI. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 154-118-10 ATS. (5-3 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Eagles -13.5 this week against the Panthers.

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NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks enter this pivotal NFC West clash with momentum over the Arizona Cardinals. With two Baller Systems pointing in their favor, here’s why we’re taking the Seahawks to cover as underdogs:

1. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites Off a Loss
   Arizona suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Vikings in their previous outing, a classic setup for fading teams in this spot.
   
2. Baller System: Backing Divisional Dogs Who Dominate the Matchup
   Seattle has won the last two head-to-head matchups against Arizona, indicating they’ve figured out how to handle this divisional rival. This confidence should carry over into this crucial game.
   
3. Seahawks Road Resilience
   Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, proving their ability to deliver away from home. Conversely, the Cardinals are returning home after two road games over the Thanksgiving stretch—a situation that often results in mental and physical fatigue.
   
4. Momentum and Playoff Implications
   The Seahawks are riding a three-game win streak and come into this matchup motivated, knowing the impact it has on the divisional playoff picture. While the Cardinals might argue it’s a revenge spot, Seattle’s recent form and cohesion give me more confidence.
   
5. Kenneth Walker’s Availability and Depth
   Even with Kenneth Walker listed as questionable, the Seahawks can rely on Zach Charbonnet, a capable backup who can carry the load if needed.

Seattle’s well-rounded performance and mental edge in recent matchups make them the smart play here. I would try to find a Seahawks +3 (-115 or better) but would also take Seahawks +2.5 if that is your best option.

Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

This Week 14 matchup sets up favorably for the Bengals, supported by two key Baller Systems and strong situational trends:

1. Road Favorites Off a Loss

Road favorites of 2.5+ points, coming off a home loss as favorites, sport a 51-22-4 ATS record since 2018, including 7-3 ATS this season. This reflects the strong bounce-back potential of teams favored on the road after an unexpected setback. Cincinnati fits the profile, signaling a confident rebound opportunity.

2. Favorites After High-Turnover Games

Teams coming off turnover-heavy games tend to rebound with a better focus on ball security. The Bengals’ offense remains highly efficient despite recent defensive struggles, making them reliable in this spot.

3. Favorable Matchup Context

• Cowboys Offensive Struggles: Ranked 27th in Offensive DVOA, Dallas lacks the firepower to exploit Cincinnati’s defensive lapses.
• Line Confidence: The Bengals are -5 favorites despite a worse record, indicating trust from the market in their potential to dominate. Cincinnati has faced a rough schedule in the last few weeks, and should be able to bounce back against the lowly Cowboys.

4. Notable Trends Against the Cowboys

• 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs.
• 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Pick: Bengals -5.5

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