Category: Commentary

Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Why the Bears will cover:

• If one of the injured tackles (Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones) returns, Caleb Williams will have much better protection, giving him more time to find his receivers and reduce the sacks taken.
• D’Andre Swift could take advantage of Green Bay’s below-average run defense, helping Chicago control the game on the ground and alleviate pressure off Williams.

Why the Packers will cover:

• Jordan Love should be close to 100% after the bye week, allowing him to capitalize on the Bears’ struggles to stop the run with Josh Jacobs gaining consistent yardage.
• Green Bay’s pass rush, which generates pressure without heavy blitzing, could overwhelm a still-injured Bears offensive line, especially if Chicago’s tackles are sidelined.

Why the game will go over:

• With both teams likely to establish their ground games, this could open up play-action opportunities, leading to big plays and quick scores.
• Green Bay’s offense will be more efficient with Love healthy and Chicago’s defense showing vulnerabilities against the run, allowing the Packers to sustain drives and put up points.

Why the game will go under:

• If Chicago’s offensive line struggles persist, Caleb Williams could face relentless pressure, resulting in stalled drives and limited offensive production.
• Both teams may lean heavily on the run game, leading to longer, clock-draining drives and fewer possessions overall, keeping the score lower.

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Why the Saints will cover:

• The Saints’ defense still ranks in the top half of the league in EPA against the pass, which could challenge Jameis Winston if he’s forced into passing situations.
• Alvin Kamara remains a versatile threat who can impact the game through short passes and screens, potentially exploiting Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush.

Why the Browns will cover:

• The Browns have had two weeks to prepare and recover, especially Nick Chubb, who faces a Saints defense that struggles against the run.
• Cleveland’s defensive front, led by Myles Garrett, should dominate New Orleans’ weakened offensive line, disrupting Derek Carr’s timing and limiting the Saints’ passing attack.

Why the game will go over:

• The Browns’ run game, led by a healthier Nick Chubb, should have explosive plays against New Orleans’ porous run defense, while Winston’s aggressive style could lead to quick scores on both sides.
• With both teams dealing with injuries in their secondaries, there may be opportunities for big passing plays, especially if Cleveland’s receivers can exploit mismatches.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams will likely lean on the run game, which could lead to longer, clock-draining drives, especially if the Browns establish an early lead.
• New Orleans’ offensive line struggles, combined with Cleveland’s pass rush, may limit scoring opportunities for the Saints, leading to a lower-scoring game.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Why the Rams will cover:

• The Rams’ offense, led by Matthew Stafford, is set to bounce back after a mistake-filled game. Sean McVay has a strong track record of making quick adjustments, especially off a loss.
• The Rams’ defense generates the highest pressure rate in the league, which should force rookie QB Drake Maye into mistakes behind New England’s shaky offensive line.

Why the Patriots will cover:

• If the Rams continue to commit turnovers and penalties, the Patriots could capitalize on those mistakes as they did against the Bears.
• With the Rams dealing with offensive line injuries, New England’s defense, which surprised last week with nine sacks, might find ways to disrupt Stafford.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses can take advantage of the opposing defenses’ weaknesses: the Rams can exploit the Patriots’ run defense, while the Patriots might benefit from short fields if the Rams make more mistakes.
• Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams have favorable matchups that could lead to big gains and quick scores, especially if the Rams’ offense is firing on all cylinders.

Why the game will go under:

• The Patriots may struggle to move the ball against the Rams’ strong pass rush, especially with rookie QB Maye likely facing constant pressure.
• The Rams’ focus on establishing the run with Kyren Williams could lead to longer, clock-draining drives, especially if they get an early lead and look to control the game tempo.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Ravens will cover:

• Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry present a dynamic duo that can challenge even the stoutest defenses. While Pittsburgh has done well containing Jackson historically, the addition of Henry provides a new dimension that the Steelers may struggle to stop.
• The Ravens’ offense is ranked No. 1 in the NFL, with Jackson playing at an MVP-caliber level this season. Despite past struggles against Pittsburgh, their explosive playmakers could break through if they can limit turnovers.

Why the Steelers will cover:

• The Steelers have a game plan that has consistently worked against Lamar Jackson. With fast edge defenders, they’ve held Jackson to under 24 points in each of their past five meetings.
• Russell Wilson’s resurgence has added a new dynamic to the Steelers’ offense. Baltimore’s weak secondary (ranked 30th in adjusted defensive EPA) is vulnerable to deep throws, and Wilson’s “moon balls” could lead to big plays downfield.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses are capable of explosive plays. The Ravens have the league’s top-ranked offense, while the Steelers, with Wilson’s improved passing, can exploit Baltimore’s weak secondary.
• The Steelers have given up points to dynamic offenses, and with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson in the backfield, the Ravens could score quickly if they catch the Steelers off guard.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams have strong defensive fronts that can control the game, leading to fewer explosive plays and long, drawn-out drives.
• The Steelers’ plan to contain Lamar Jackson has historically worked, with most matchups between these teams resulting in low-scoring affairs. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s offense might struggle if Baltimore can generate consistent pressure on Wilson.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Why the Dolphins will cover:

• Tua Tagovailoa is set up for a bounce-back game against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in defensive EPA. After struggling against tougher defenses like the Bills and Rams, Miami’s offense should have more room to operate.
• De’Von Achane is poised to exploit the Raiders’ weakness against pass-catching running backs, adding an explosive element that can turn short gains into big plays.

Why the Raiders will cover:

• Miami’s defense, while showing improvement last week, is still ranked 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. If the Dolphins’ cornerbacks remain sidelined, Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew may have a chance to exploit the weakened secondary.
• The Dolphins have struggled to put away games lately, and the Raiders could find themselves in a position to secure a back-door cover, especially if they get the ball in the fourth quarter against a tired Miami defense.

Why the game will go over:

• Miami’s offense has been stifled by top-tier defenses recently but should find plenty of success against a porous Raiders secondary. Expect Tagovailoa, Hill, and Achane to put up big numbers against a defense that struggles to stop playmakers.
• Las Vegas may find success in the passing game late, particularly if Miami’s cornerbacks are limited or out. The Raiders could add points in garbage time to push the total over.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams could struggle with consistency on offense due to quarterback play. Tagovailoa hasn’t looked sharp since his concussion, while the Raiders’ quarterback carousel has been far from effective.
• Miami’s defensive resurgence, fueled by Zach Sieler, could limit the Raiders’ ability to score, while the Dolphins may opt to control the clock with their running game if they get a lead, resulting in a lower-scoring affair.

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Lions will cover:

• Jared Goff should rebound against a Jacksonville defense ranked 28th in EPA. The Jaguars’ lack of a pass rush (third-worst in pressure rate) will allow Goff plenty of time in the pocket to connect with his weapons.
• With the Jaguars struggling to defend pass-catching running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs could have a big game exploiting this weakness, especially in the absence of Sam LaPorta.

Why the Jaguars will cover:

• Despite their offensive struggles, the Jaguars have been resilient in keeping games close, evidenced by their miraculous cover last week despite being outplayed statistically.
• The Lions may experience a slight letdown after an emotional comeback win against Houston, possibly leaving an opening for Jacksonville to sneak in a back-door cover.

Why the game will go over:

• Detroit’s offense, with Goff looking to bounce back from a rough outing, could exploit Jacksonville’s weak pass defense. Expect the Lions to put up points quickly, especially with Gibbs and St. Brown leading the way.
• The Jaguars, while limited offensively, may be able to capitalize on garbage-time opportunities, especially if Detroit’s defense softens up with a big lead.

Why the game will go under:

• Jacksonville’s offense, led by a struggling Mac Jones, may not be able to put up significant points against a Lions defense that shut out the Texans in the second half last week.
• Detroit could control the game on the ground with Gibbs, allowing them to run down the clock, especially if they get an early lead.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Why the Vikings will cover:

• The Titans’ secondary is banged up, likely missing both starting cornerbacks. This will allow Sam Darnold to connect with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who have great matchups.
• Tennessee struggles to defend receiving backs, which means Aaron Jones could have a big day catching passes out of the backfield, giving Darnold safer, high-percentage throws.

Why the Titans will cover:

• Minnesota’s offense has been turnover-prone, as evidenced by Darnold’s three red-zone interceptions last week. If Darnold continues to struggle with ball security, the Titans could capitalize on short fields.
• The Vikings’ aggressive blitzing defense could leave them vulnerable to big plays if Levis manages to find his rhythm against the pressure.

Why the game will go over:

• With both teams having significant defensive weaknesses, the Vikings’ potent passing attack could exploit Tennessee’s depleted secondary, while the Titans may be able to hit on a few explosive plays if Minnesota’s blitzing scheme backfires.
• Darnold will be eager to redeem himself after last week’s poor showing, which could lead to more aggressive play-calling and higher scoring drives.

Why the game will go under:

• Minnesota’s defense will pressure Will Levis relentlessly, forcing turnovers and stalling Tennessee’s drives, keeping the overall score low.
• Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, especially in the red zone, which could lead to more field goals than touchdowns.

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Why the Jets will cover:

• Aaron Rodgers is likely to have more time in the pocket against the Colts, who rarely blitz. This will allow him to find his receivers downfield, especially after struggling against the Cardinals’ unexpected blitz packages.
• The Jets’ running game could excel against the Colts’ weak rush defense, with Breece Hall primed for a big day to relieve pressure off Rodgers.

Why the Colts will cover:

• Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup against the Jets’ weak run defense, allowing the Colts to control the game on the ground and limit Joe Flacco’s exposure to mistakes.
• Anthony Richardson’s mobility can exploit the Jets’ defense, which struggles against mobile quarterbacks, potentially leading to big gains on the ground.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against the run, which could lead to big plays and sustained drives, increasing the score.
• With both Rodgers and Richardson eager to rebound from poor performances, expect aggressive play-calling to push the pace.

Why the game will go under:

• The Jets’ offensive struggles could continue, especially if Rodgers remains reliant on checkdowns under pressure, limiting their scoring potential.
• The Colts’ passing attack is shaky with Flacco or Richardson, and if the Jets’ secondary performs up to their capabilities, it could be a low-scoring defensive battle focused on running the ball.

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San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Why the 49ers will cover:

• Christian McCaffrey is set to handle a larger workload in his second game back and faces a porous Seahawks run defense.
• Brock Purdy has already had success against Seattle’s defense, and Deebo Samuel always plays exceptionally well against the Seahawks.

Why the Seahawks will cover:

• Seattle is coming off a bye, which gives them extra preparation time, especially for divisional rematches like this.
• The 49ers’ red zone inefficiencies, as seen last week, could prevent them from pulling away if they settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Why the game will go over:

• San Francisco’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively with McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle, creating multiple scoring opportunities.
• Seattle will likely find success with quick passes to their secondary options like Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker as a receiving back, exploiting San Francisco’s weaker coverage areas.

Why the game will go under:

• The 49ers’ red zone struggles could limit their scoring to field goals instead of touchdowns, keeping the score lower than expected.
• Seattle’s offense might struggle against San Francisco’s stout defense, particularly if Kenneth Walker is limited on the ground and D.K. Metcalf is contained.

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons

Why the Broncos will cover:

• Bo Nix will have ample time in the pocket against Atlanta’s second-worst pressure rate, allowing him to connect with Courtland Sutton for big plays.
• The Falcons’ defense has struggled to contain No. 1 receivers and tight ends, which could open up the passing game for Denver, especially with Nix coming off a confidence-boosting game-winning drive (even if the field goal was blocked).

Why the Falcons will cover:

• Denver’s defense is overrated in terms of defensive EPA, ranking only 14th, which the Falcons can exploit, especially with Kyle Pitts working the middle of the field.
• Bijan Robinson should find success against a Denver defense that was recently gashed by Derrick Henry, giving Atlanta the ability to control the game on the ground.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have favorable matchups: Denver’s passing game can take advantage of Atlanta’s weak pass rush, while the Falcons can exploit the Broncos’ struggles in the middle of the field with Kyle Pitts.
• The Broncos’ recent switch at running back could create more explosive plays, while the Falcons’ offense, led by Robinson and Pitts, can put up points against Denver’s vulnerable defense.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams have been inconsistent on offense, with Denver’s running game change potentially slowing their offensive rhythm and the Falcons being overly reliant on Pitts and Robinson.
• Denver’s solid coverage with Patrick Surtain II on Drake London and Atlanta’s ability to limit the run could lead to longer drives and fewer explosive plays, keeping the score lower.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Why the Chiefs will cover:

• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have been in sync lately, with Kelce benefiting from increased targets after Rashee Rice’s injury. Kelce can exploit a Bills defense that has recently struggled against tight ends.
• Buffalo’s injury issues on offense and defense could limit their effectiveness, and the Chiefs’ stout defense could take advantage of a weakened Bills receiving corps and ground game.

Why the Bills will cover:

• The Bills’ defense ranks fourth in EPA and is well-equipped to disrupt Kansas City’s offense, especially with the return of key players, which will make it tough for Mahomes to replicate last week’s success.
• Josh Allen’s ability to scramble and target Dalton Kincaid against the Chiefs’ weakness to tight ends provides a solid path to offensive production, helping the Bills control the clock and potentially outlast Kansas City.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses feature elite playmakers in Mahomes and Allen, who are capable of explosive plays. The Chiefs and Bills each have mismatches they can exploit, with Kelce and Kincaid having strong matchups.
• Kansas City’s recent defensive lapses against certain types of receivers and tight ends could open the door for Allen to post big numbers, while Mahomes can take advantage of a Buffalo secondary that has shown vulnerability due to injuries.

Why the game will go under:

• Both defenses excel in limiting key areas of their opponents’ strengths: Buffalo can contain outside receivers, and Kansas City is adept at restricting running games and No. 1 receivers, which could reduce big-play opportunities.
• With Buffalo’s run defense and Kansas City’s preference for controlling time of possession, there’s a chance this game could be a slower-paced, grind-it-out matchup rather than an offensive shootout.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Why the Bengals will cover:

• Joe Burrow thrives in bounce-back situations and tends to perform well following a loss. This urgency is even higher here with Cincinnati sitting at 4-7.
• Despite the Chargers’ defensive prowess, Ja’Marr Chase has a favorable matchup against a secondary that has struggled against No. 1 receivers lately. If Chase Brown can establish a decent run game, it’ll help keep the Chargers’ edge rushers at bay.

Why the Chargers will cover:

• The Chargers’ defense ranks second in defensive EPA, with a strong pass rush that can disrupt Burrow, especially if the Bengals are without left tackle Orlando Brown.
• Cincinnati’s defense is struggling, particularly against the run and deep passes, which aligns perfectly with the Chargers’ offensive strengths. J.K. Dobbins and Justin Herbert should be able to exploit these weaknesses.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have the firepower to put up points, and the Bengals are coming off a pair of high-scoring shootouts against Baltimore. With both teams facing defensive weaknesses (Cincinnati’s poor run defense and the Chargers’ vulnerability to big plays), a high total seems likely.
• The Chargers’ receiving corps is fully healthy, with Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey available, which should allow Herbert to connect on deep shots against Cincinnati’s shaky secondary.

Why the game will go under:

• The Chargers’ defense is capable of putting significant pressure on Burrow, which could limit the Bengals’ offensive efficiency, especially if Orlando Brown is sidelined.
• Both teams may look to control the game on the ground, with J.K. Dobbins for the Chargers and Chase Brown for the Bengals, which could lead to longer drives and fewer possessions, keeping the total lower.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys

Why the Texans will cover:

• With Nico Collins returning, the Texans’ offense should be revitalized, giving C.J. Stroud a reliable target to pair with Tank Dell. This should help Stroud move the chains against a Dallas defense that has struggled against the run.
• Houston’s defense is top-10 in adjusted EPA and excels at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys, with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance under center, will face a difficult time moving the ball, especially with limited receiving threats and poor pass protection.

Why the Cowboys will cover:

• The Texans are weakest against the run, and if Dallas can establish a ground game with Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, they may be able to control the clock and keep Stroud off the field.
• Cooper Rush has shown in the past that he can manage games efficiently, and if he limits mistakes and avoids turnovers, the Cowboys’ defense might be able to keep this game closer than expected.

Why the game will go over:

• With Collins returning, the Texans’ passing attack should see a boost, allowing them to exploit Dallas’ vulnerable pass defense, especially on play-action setups from early down runs with Joe Mixon.
• Houston’s defensive strength is pressuring the quarterback, but if Dallas can find some success with quick passes or screens, they might generate enough scoring drives to contribute to a higher total.

Why the game will go under:

• Dallas is limited offensively without Dak Prescott and may struggle to generate any explosive plays. The Texans’ defense should be able to shut down an already shaky Cowboys offense led by a backup quarterback.
• The Texans, despite Collins’ return, may opt for a more conservative game plan with a focus on the run game to control the clock and limit mistakes after their recent losses.

Welcome to the NFL Week 11 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 15-14-2.

 
NFL Week 11 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• V. Fading home teams off OT win
• VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

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I. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Chargers: 2-12 O/U in L14 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-9 O/U this season.
• Bengals: 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
• Dolphins: 0-9 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-5 ATS in L5 games at home.
• Texans: 9-1 1H ATS this season.
• Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
• Browns: 1-8 Team Total O/U this season.
• Lions: 7-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
• Ravens: 9-1 O/U this season
• Cowboys: 2-11 ATS in L13 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 0-6 ATS in L6 home games.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Panthers: 8-0-1 1H O/U this season.
• Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
• Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
• Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Week 10 brought another dip in NFL scoring, with games averaging 40.7 points, below the season average of 44.9. The week leaned heavily toward unders, finishing 9-4-1, with the median points per game settling at 39. This marks a cooling off after a more high-scoring stretch earlier in the season. Overall, the season’s totals now stand at 76-74-3 to the over, showing a trend toward normalization.

Defenses are adjusting, and external factors like weather and playoff stakes will continue to impact scoring. As the season progresses, betting strategies around totals may need to evolve. Sharp bettors will look for value in under opportunities, especially with rising market expectations for overs.

Key considerations for targeting unders include:

• Late-season divisional rematches: Familiarity between teams can slow scoring.
• Playoff implications: Tighter, more cautious gameplay may emerge.
• Weather impacts: Conditions in outdoor stadiums may favor lower scores.

Keep these factors in mind as you adapt to shifting trends and hunt for edges in the market.

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III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Lions -13.5 this week against the Jaguars.

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IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-10 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-2 ATS this season.  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active on the Bills and Jets in Week 11.

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V. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and while there are no active plays this week, it will be active to fade the Panthers next week off their bye week.

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VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active on the Rams -4.5 this week.

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VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.

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NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Rams head into this week’s matchup against the New England Patriots with a fully healthy roster, featuring star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Both players now have several games under their belts to shake off the rust and gain some rhythm.

The Rams are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Patriots, a result that sets up a potential bounce-back scenario. On the other hand, New England enters this game riding high after an upset victory over the Bears as underdogs. This creates an intriguing dynamic: a Rams team looking to rebound versus a Patriots squad vulnerable to a letdown.

Historically, the situation heavily favors Los Angeles. As mentioned above, since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a remarkable 50-21-4 ATS record.

Another point of concern for the Patriots is their inability to perform at home. Over their last 15 games in Foxborough, they’ve gone a dismal 2-11-2 ATS.

The oddsmakers’ decision to favor the Rams on the road, despite their recent setback, reflects confidence in their ability to respond. With all these factors at play, the Rams seem poised to get back on track and cover the spread.

Pick: Rams -4.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have been a model of consistency this season, holding a stellar 7-2 ATS record in both first halves and full games. This week, they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team missing Trevor Lawrence, whose absence amplifies the Lions’ advantage.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks second to last in Defensive DVOA, setting up Jared Goff for a potential bounce-back performance after his uncharacteristic five-interception outing. Adding to the Lions’ edge, we have a Baller System active: backing a favorite off a game where they were favored but committed two or more turnovers. These factors point to a dominant showing for Detroit.

Historically, double-digit favorites have proven profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (146-114-10 ATS) since 2015, with success increasing as spreads grow larger. Even this season, double-digit favorites have maintained their edge, covering 4 out of 5 times.

At -13.5, the Lions’ consistency and the depleted Jaguars roster make them a compelling play. Backing heavy favorites can seem daunting, but the numbers suggest there’s often a reward for taking the leap.

Pick: Lions -13.5 (up to -14)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

This matchup features challenging situational spots for both teams. The Raiders are traveling cross-country and may already have their sights set on a divisional clash with the Broncos next week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a potential lookahead scenario, preparing for their own divisional game against the Patriots, and they’re coming off shorter rest after playing on Monday Night Football.

The potential absence of Tyreek Hill further complicates Miami’s offense, removing a key playmaker and potentially slowing down their normally explosive scoring.

Additionally, two of our favorite Baller Systems are active on the under for this game. These align with the broader trend of unders hitting frequently this season, particularly in games where fatigue or situational distractions play a role.

With a total set at 44, and the combination of unfavorable setups for both teams, this game shapes up as a strong play for the under.

Pick: Under 44

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Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants (Germany Game)

Why Carolina will cover:

• If Andy Dalton starts, he can exploit the Giants’ weaknesses at cornerback, connecting with receivers like Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, especially given the solid pass protection.
• Chuba Hubbard faces an incredibly favorable matchup against a porous Giants run defense that has struggled to stop opposing backs all season.

Why New York will cover:

• The Giants are better positioned to exploit Carolina’s historically poor defense, which ranks dead last in pressure rate and struggles against both the run and pass.
• Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy are poised for big games against a Panthers defense that can’t cover outside receivers or stop explosive runs.

Why game will go over:

• Both defenses are weak, with the Panthers unable to generate any pressure on Daniel Jones, allowing him to connect deep with Nabers.
• The Panthers, especially with Dalton, can take advantage of the Giants’ vulnerable secondary and poor run defense, leading to high-scoring drives on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• If Bryce Young starts, the Panthers’ offense could sputter, struggling to consistently move the chains against a slightly better Giants defense.
• Both teams may lean heavily on their run games, draining the clock and limiting overall scoring opportunities.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills

Why Indianapolis will cover:

• Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that struggles to stop the run and allows significant yardage to pass-catching backs, creating opportunities for Taylor to excel both on the ground and through the air.
• The Colts have kept every game close this season, losing by no more than eight points, showcasing their resilience in tight matchups.

Why Buffalo will cover:

• Josh Allen has been playing mistake-free football, with only two interceptions all season, and the potential return of Amari Cooper could open up the Bills’ passing attack against a shaky Colts secondary.
• Dalton Kincaid could exploit Indianapolis’ weakness against tight ends, providing a consistent and reliable target for Allen in the middle of the field.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities: Buffalo struggles against running backs and slot receivers, while Indianapolis has a shaky secondary that could be exposed if Cooper plays.
• Josh Downs and Taylor’s receiving abilities can generate explosive plays, while Allen’s methodical approach could produce long, scoring drives.

Why game will go under:

• Buffalo may come out flat after an emotional divisional win over Miami, potentially slowing their offensive output, especially with key receivers like Cooper possibly limited.
• If the Colts focus on controlling the clock with a run-heavy approach using Taylor, it could lead to long, time-consuming drives, reducing the overall scoring opportunities.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings

Why Jacksonville will cover:

• Trevor Lawrence excels against the blitz, which is crucial since the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. This gives Jacksonville an advantage if Lawrence plays.
• The Jaguars have been competitive recently, covering the spread in their last three games, and could exploit Minnesota’s struggles against No. 1 receivers and tight ends.

Why Minnesota will cover:

• With Trevor Lawrence potentially sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Jacksonville’s backup quarterback could struggle against Brian Flores’ aggressive blitz schemes.
• Cam Robinson’s presence on the Vikings’ offensive line helps solidify protection for Sam Darnold, which can exploit Jacksonville’s weakened defensive line missing key players like Scherff and Cleveland.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have potent offensive weapons, with the Vikings featuring Justin Jefferson and the Jaguars likely leaning on Lawrence’s quick passes against the blitz.
• The Jaguars are vulnerable to receiving backs, so Aaron Jones could have success both on the ground and through the air, boosting the scoring potential.

Why game will go under:

• If Trevor Lawrence is out, Jacksonville’s offense could struggle with a backup quarterback facing a relentless Minnesota pass rush, limiting scoring opportunities.
• Minnesota may lean on a run-heavy game plan with Aaron Jones to control the clock, especially if Jacksonville’s offensive line is compromised, slowing the game pace.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins

Why Pittsburgh will cover:

• Russell Wilson will look to exploit the absence of Marshon Lattimore, who was expected to bolster the Redskins’ secondary but won’t be available.
• Mike Tomlin’s track record as an underdog is stellar, with Pittsburgh often keeping games close even when outmatched.

Why Washington will cover:

• The acquisition of Marshon Lattimore, even if he’s out, adds confidence to Washington’s secondary, allowing them to focus more on pressuring Wilson behind Pittsburgh’s shaky O-line.
• Jayden Daniels’ mobility and ability to extend plays will challenge Pittsburgh’s pass rush, especially if he’s healthier this week.

Why game will go over:

• Washington’s offense, led by Daniels and McLaurin, has explosive play potential, especially against a Pittsburgh defense that can give up big passing plays under pressure.
• Pittsburgh’s new addition, Mike Williams, could open up their passing game, creating opportunities for chunk yardage and quick scores.

Why game will go under:

• Both defenses excel at generating pressure, which could disrupt offensive rhythm and lead to stalled drives.
• The absence of Brian Robinson Jr. for Washington and the Redskins’ focus on containing Najee Harris may result in fewer successful offensive plays, slowing the game pace.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Why New Orleans will cover:

• Firing Dennis Allen may ignite the team, as players often perform better following a coaching change to prove themselves.
• Despite missing Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Derek Carr can exploit the Falcons’ weak secondary, especially with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill contributing in the run and short passing game.

Why Atlanta will cover:

• The Saints are missing their top three cornerbacks, making it easier for Kirk Cousins to connect with Drake London and Bijan Robinson, who can exploit a weak New Orleans run defense.
• The Saints’ depleted offensive line could struggle to protect Derek Carr, giving Atlanta’s defense more chances to pressure and disrupt drives.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities: the Saints’ depleted secondary and the Falcons’ poor pass rush, which could lead to explosive plays on both sides.
• Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson are both capable of breaking big gains, either through rushing or catching passes, contributing to a higher score.

Why game will go under:

• The Saints’ missing top receivers and offensive linemen could lead to stalled drives, especially if Carr struggles to connect with backup options.
• Atlanta may focus on controlling the clock with a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson’s ground game, which could slow the pace and reduce overall scoring opportunities.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Why Kansas City will cover:

• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce should thrive against a Broncos defense that struggles to cover tight ends, especially with DeAndre Hopkins emerging as a legitimate threat.
• Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix faces a tough task against Kansas City’s No. 1-ranked rush defense, forcing him to rely on his limited receiving options, which plays into the Chiefs’ defensive strengths.

Why Denver will cover:

• The Chiefs typically struggle to cover large spreads during the regular season, especially if they’re not fully motivated.
• If Denver can avoid turnovers and control the clock with efficient drives, they may keep it close enough to cover, especially in a divisional rivalry game.

Why game will go over:

• The Chiefs’ passing attack, bolstered by Hopkins and Kelce, could exploit the Broncos’ inconsistent pass defense, leading to big plays and quick scores.
• Bo Nix, despite being a rookie, has shown flashes of potential and might be able to generate enough points in catch-up mode, pushing the total over.

Why game will go under:

• Kansas City’s elite run defense will likely force Denver into one-dimensional, pass-heavy drives, potentially leading to stalled possessions and lower overall scoring.
• The Chiefs may opt for a more conservative, clock-draining approach if they establish a comfortable lead, especially with a matchup they’re expected to win comfortably.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers

Why San Francisco will cover:

• The return of Christian McCaffrey, even in a limited capacity, will bolster the 49ers’ red zone offense, an area they’ve struggled in recently.
• The 49ers’ pass rush will overwhelm a banged-up Buccaneers offensive line, forcing Baker Mayfield into turnovers against San Francisco’s top-tier secondary.

Why Tampa Bay will cover:

• The Buccaneers showed resilience against the Chiefs, nearly pulling off the upset, which could carry momentum into this game if Mayfield plays.
• If San Francisco’s key players like Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel are limited or out, Tampa Bay might have a window to keep it close.

Why game will go over:

• San Francisco’s potent offense, especially with Kittle exploiting the Buccaneers’ weak coverage in the middle, could lead to explosive plays and quick scores.
• Tampa Bay may be forced into a pass-heavy game plan if they fall behind early, increasing the chances of big plays and turnovers leading to more points.

Why game will go under:

• If Mayfield is limited or out, Tampa Bay’s offense could struggle to move the chains, especially against San Francisco’s stout defense.
• The 49ers may lean on a ground-heavy attack if McCaffrey is back, controlling the clock and limiting overall possessions, which would keep the score lower.

New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears

Why Chicago will cover:

• Caleb Williams will face much less pressure from New England’s sixth-worst pressure rate, allowing him to find open receivers like D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze.
• The Bears’ strong rushing attack, led by D’Andre Swift, should exploit New England’s porous run defense, keeping Chicago in control of the game.

Why New England will cover:

• Rhamondre Stevenson has a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that was shredded by James Conner last week, allowing New England to control the ground game.
• If Chicago’s offensive line injuries persist, the Patriots’ defense could disrupt Williams, forcing turnovers and keeping the game close.

Why game will go over:

• Both offenses match up well against the opposing defenses’ weaknesses, with Williams taking advantage of the Patriots’ poor pass rush and Stevenson finding running lanes against the Bears.
• Chicago’s explosive playmakers, paired with New England’s recent defensive struggles, could lead to quick scores on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• If the Bears focus on a ground-heavy game plan with D’Andre Swift, they may drain the clock and limit possessions, keeping the score lower.
• The Patriots’ offense, which relies heavily on the run, may struggle to convert on long drives, especially if Maye faces pressure from a rejuvenated Bears’ pass rush.

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Why the Chargers will cover:

• Justin Herbert is set to exploit Tennessee’s injury-riddled secondary, especially with Quentin Johnston stepping up as a key receiver. The Titans are down their top cornerbacks, which opens the door for Herbert to dominate through the air.
• The Chargers’ defense excels against weak quarterbacks. They’ve blown out subpar QBs like Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, and Spencer Rattler this season, winning by double-digit margins each time.

Why the Titans will cover:

• Tony Pollard could find success in the passing game against the Chargers, who’ve struggled at times against receiving backs. If the Titans utilize Pollard effectively in the air, it could keep them competitive.
• The Chargers have struggled in their home stadium in recent years, and if Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack misses this game, Tennessee may have an easier time protecting their quarterback.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams possess explosive offensive weapons, and Justin Herbert could easily carve up Tennessee’s weakened secondary, leading to quick scores.
• If the Titans fall behind early, they’ll have to rely on the passing game, which could lead to a high-scoring shootout, especially if they play catch-up late in the game.

Why the game will go under:

• Both defenses have been stout against the run, which could lead to stalled drives and limited big plays. The Titans’ only offensive strength lies in the run game, and they may struggle against the Chargers’ strong run defense.
• The Titans’ offense, led by either a struggling Will Levis or a backup Mason Rudolph, is unlikely to generate consistent scoring against the Chargers’ top-tier defense, especially with pressure from Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Why the Eagles will cover:

• The Cowboys will be without Dak Prescott, forcing Cooper Rush into the starting role. Rush will be under heavy pressure from Philadelphia’s formidable defensive front, making it tough for him to sustain drives.
• Philadelphia’s run defense is among the league’s best, which means Dallas’ backup running back Rico Dowdle won’t have much room to operate, allowing the Eagles to control the game flow.

Why the Cowboys will cover:

• With Micah Parsons returning, the Cowboys’ pass rush can disrupt Jalen Hurts, potentially forcing turnovers or creating short-field opportunities for their offense.
• CeeDee Lamb is expected to play, giving Cooper Rush at least one reliable target to move the chains, especially if Philadelphia focuses too heavily on stopping the run.

Why the game will go over:

• Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense could exploit Dallas’ banged-up secondary, especially if Trevon Diggs is out, leading to explosive plays from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
• The Cowboys, despite their injuries, may find success in garbage time if the Eagles relax with a sizable lead, allowing Cooper Rush to connect on quick scores late in the game.

Why the game will go under:

• The Cowboys’ offense, led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush, is likely to struggle to put up points against an Eagles defense ranked fourth in defensive EPA.
• Both teams may lean heavily on their running backs (Saquon Barkley for Philadelphia and Rico Dowdle for Dallas) to control the clock, resulting in longer, time-consuming drives and fewer scoring opportunities.

New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals

Why the Jets will cover:

• Aaron Rodgers is starting to develop better chemistry with his receivers, which could lead to more effective offensive drives, especially if the Cardinals’ pass rush doesn’t disrupt him too much.
• Breece Hall can exploit Arizona’s weaknesses in defending pass-catching running backs, potentially leading to big plays and keeping the Jets’ offense moving.

Why the Cardinals will cover:

• The Jets’ defense struggles against the run, and James Conner is poised for a strong performance against this unit. Arizona can control the game tempo with a solid ground attack.
• Kyler Murray can take advantage of New York’s difficulties in covering tight ends, allowing Trey McBride to make key catches and extend drives.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams could find success in exploiting each other’s defensive weaknesses: the Cardinals on the ground with James Conner, and the Jets with Aaron Rodgers targeting Breece Hall in the passing game.
• If both offenses are able to sustain drives, especially with efficient running and quick passes, we could see more scoring opportunities than expected.

Why the game will go under:

• The Jets’ pass protection issues, combined with Arizona’s improved pass rush, may limit Rodgers’ effectiveness, leading to stalled drives and fewer points on the board.
• The Cardinals may rely heavily on their running game to control the clock, which could slow the pace and result in fewer possessions and scoring chances for both teams.

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions

Why the Texans will cover:

• C.J. Stroud regains a key weapon with Nico Collins’ expected return, which significantly boosts Houston’s passing attack against a Lions’ secondary that has struggled without Aidan Hutchinson.
• The Lions’ pass defense is vulnerable, especially against slot receivers and deep threats, which Stroud can exploit with Collins and Tank Dell, assuming they’re healthy.

Why the Lions will cover:

• Detroit’s potent rushing attack, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, is set to dominate against Houston’s weak run defense that has been exploited in recent weeks.
• Jared Goff thrives indoors and has been highly efficient lately, benefiting from Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to exploit the Texans’ weakness against slot receivers.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses are capable of explosive plays, especially with Collins back for the Texans and the Lions leaning on their dynamic duo of Gibbs and Montgomery to break big runs.
• Houston’s defense struggles to contain the run, while Detroit’s injury-riddled secondary could give up significant yardage to Stroud and his receivers, leading to a high-scoring game.

Why the game will go under:

• The Lions could control the game’s pace with their ground attack, chewing up the clock and limiting the number of possessions for both teams.
• If Nico Collins is limited or absent, the Texans’ offense might struggle to sustain drives, reducing their scoring opportunities against a Lions’ defense that can focus on stopping the run.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Rams will cover:

• With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back and healthy, the Rams’ passing game will be difficult for Miami’s defense to handle, especially with Kyren Williams benefiting from lighter boxes.
• The Dolphins’ run defense has been weak, which sets up well for Williams to have a big game, opening up favorable play-action opportunities for Matthew Stafford.

Why the Dolphins will cover:

• Tua Tagovailoa’s quick release and the ability to hit his short-range playmakers like De’Von Achane could counter the Rams’ pass rush, allowing Miami to sustain drives.
• The Rams’ linebacking corps struggles in coverage, which Miami can exploit with short passes to players like Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle in space.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have explosive playmakers capable of turning short passes into long gains, with the Rams leveraging Kupp and Nacua and the Dolphins featuring Hill and Waddle.
• The Dolphins’ defensive struggles against the run and the Rams’ issues covering the middle of the field could lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides.

Why the game will go under:

• If the Rams control the game with a run-heavy approach through Kyren Williams, they could dominate time of possession, limiting Miami’s offensive opportunities.
• Tua Tagovailoa may struggle under heavy pressure from the Rams’ pass rush, potentially leading to stalled drives and fewer explosive plays.

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