Category: Commentary

Welcome to the NFL Week 2 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.

 
NFL Week 2 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Early Season Totals
• III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
• IV. Week 2 Overreaction Angles
• V.  Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs
• VI. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
• Write-ups and picks

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I. NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Team Trends

These trends aren’t always actionable on their own, but they highlight notable tendencies worth keeping in mind as you evaluate Week 2 matchups:

• Rams: Have covered the spread in 6 straight road games.
• Falcons: Have gone 0–5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Giants: Have gone 0–5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Browns: Just 4–13–1 ATS on the road over the last two seasons.
• Titans: Have gone 0–8 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• 49ers: Have gone 0–10 ATS following a win.
• Lions: Have gone 10–0 ATS following a loss.
• Ravens: Have gone 11–1 ATS following a loss.
• Jaguars: Have hit the Over in 6 straight games following a win.

Use these as context points when shaping your card — they can help identify hidden edges or caution flags before you make a play.

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II. NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Early Season Totals

Week 1 saw a shift in scoring trends, with games going 12-3 to the under and averaging 41.3 points per game (38.7 PPG if you exclude the Ravens/Bills game), well below market total of 45.4. This is a significant decrease from last season’s Week 1, which only averaged 45.8 PPG, and previous year’s season-long average scoring of 45.9 PPG.

Notes from this Week 1

• The Bills-Ravens game was a big outlier: 41-40, a high‐scoring shootout which skewed averages upward somewhat. Excluding that, many games were well below typical totals.
• In the Broncos-Titans opener, for example, nearly all scoring was via field goals until late: there were multiple missed or stalled drives; limited high impact offense.
• The Giants failed to score a touchdown in their opener versus Washington; their run offense was stymied, and pass protection weak.
• The FantasyPoints “Data Charter Notes” flagged that several offenses used fewer motions, fewer spread/pass under center wrinkles, fewer deep throws, more short/intermediate work. Fantasy Points

Putting it all together, the most likely combination is:

1. Offenses were rusty – less crisp in execution, worse at finishing drives, more penalties or miscommunications.
2. Play‐calling was more conservative: fewer deep shots, fewer aggressive schemes, more short/intermediate plays, fewer high variance plays.
3. Expectation overshoot: markets set totals high (based on last season or early projections) and didn’t fully discount early season friction.

If I had to pick one dominant cause, I’d point to conservatism + execution issues: teams playing “safe,” trying to avoid turnovers, making fewer mistakes, but also limiting upside.

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III.  NFL Week 2: Thursday – Look Ahead Spots

One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading home teams who are set to play their next game on a Thursday.

A new angle is active this week – fading home teams in Week 4 or earlier has produced a 45-26-6 ATS record, a success rate of 63.4%. This week, it is active as fade the Dolphins (play on the Patriots).

The looming Thursday night game forces them to prepare for two games within a tight timeframe, which can lead to lack of focus. This is especially challenging early in the season, when teams are still working out the kinks and shaking off the offseason rust. The physical and mental toll of anticipating a short turnaround can also disrupt a team’s rhythm, making them more vulnerable to an upset. Even the best teams can struggle with preparation and execution when faced with the prospect of playing two games in just a few days.

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IV. Week 2 Overreaction Angles

In Week 2, there’s a strong historical trend favoring teams coming off a loss in Week 1 when facing a team that won outright as an underdog. Since the 2012 season, these bounce-back teams have gone 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%). This trend is active to play of the Falcons and Jets in Week 2, offering a potential edge for bettors (if you dare). It makes sense – teams off a disappointing loss often come in with added motivation, while their opponents may be riding high off an unexpected win, setting up a prime spot for a bounce-back performance.

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V.  Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs

One of our “Baller Systems” variations favors early-season (Week 6 or earlier) road underdogs who last the previous week and their opponent lost the previous week. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 65-24-1 record ATS.

• Giants (@Cowboys)
• Bears (@ Lions)
• Patriots (@ Dolphins)
• Browns (@Ravens)

The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued. The market expects a bounce-back for the home team, pricing them at a premium that typically hasn’t worked out very well for them.

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VI. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches

Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 50-32-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 32-16-3 (66.7%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 0-1 to the under so far this season. It is active on the Chiefs/Eagles in Week 2.

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NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Breakdowns

We went an awful 0-4 on our picks last week – really poor week with the systems not materializing. No excuses – we trust the process and look to bounce back this week!

New England Patriots +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins

• 3 Baller Systems Active on the Patriots
  • Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday
  • Back early-season road underdogs whose opponent lost last game
  • Back road underdogs between two winless teams
    

Week 1 was ROUGH for the Miami Dolphins. They managed only 211 total yards vs. Colts, were shut out in the first half, and had just 15 plays in the opening half. Tua Tagovailoa looked in poor form, and there were a myriad of morale issues surfaced after the meltdown – Tyreek Hill clearly wants out.

Meanwhile, the Patriots, despite losing, showed flashes. Their new pass rush (Harold Landry with 2.5 sacks) and scheme pressure gave the Raiders some trouble in key spots. The run defense graded well; they limited rushing yards and kept second-half drives in check.

3 Baller Systems are active on the Patriots this week. One is a situational spot for Miami, who is looking ahead to a Thursday night matchup against the Buffalo Bills. With the systems aligning and Miami looking vulnerable, this feels like a strong fade spot.

✅ Play: Patriots +2.5

New York Giants +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys

3 Baller Systems active on the Giants:

• Road team off a loss of more than a TD
• Early-season road underdogs whose opponent lost the previous game
• Road underdogs between two winless teams
  

Our pick on the Giants didn’t go well last week, but we see another strong opportunity to back them again. Dallas is the “name brand” at home. Meanwhile, the Giants fit three Baller Systems that have crushed historically. NFC East matchups are notoriously close. In the last 10 Giants–Cowboys meetings, seven have been one-score games.

The Giants were humbled in Week 1, falling to the Commanders 30–13. These teams off a blowout loss have historically been undervalued early in the season as the public quickly labels them as “bad.” Despite the final score, the Giants allowed just 4.9 yards per play in Week 1, right around league average, and forced Washington into six punts on 10 drives. The field position battle hurt them more than their actual defense.

The Cowboys are coming off a 24–17 loss to the Browns in Week 1. Early in the season, perception swings wildly off small samples, creating value on these road dogs. Dak was pressured on 40% of dropbacks in Week 1, and Dallas converted just 4 of 13 third downs.

Both squads enter 0–1, which neutralizes any “momentum” edge. Historically, when neither team has shown form yet, grabbing the points has proven profitable.

✅ Play: Giants +4.5

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