Category: Commentary

Published: Friday, May 9, 10:32 PM CT

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Celtics @ Knicks – Game 3

📊 Matchup Notes:

• 4 Baller Systems active on the Celtics
• 3 Baller Systems active on the Under

✅ Play: Celtics -5.5

Breakdown:
This one checks every box of a textbook zig-zag spot. Boston enters desperate, down 0-2, and the pressure is on – both from the scoreboard and the media. Jayson Tatum’s performance has been under fire, and we’re banking on a big-time response from the Celtics’ leader.

Historically, Boston thrives in this kind of spot:

• 11-4 ATS this season as favorites of 2.5 to 7 points
• Road teams have been covering well in this year’s playoffs 32-25-1 ATS (w/ Thunder/Nuggets Game 3 pending).
• The Knicks are 0-4-1 ATS as home underdogs
• This postseason: Knicks are 2-6 1H ATS and 6-2 ATS – we think the 1st half angle is another one to tackle – Celtics 1H -4.

Meanwhile, the Knicks’ offense is due for some regression, and with three systems also pointing to the under, this could be a grind-it-out type of battle.

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Warriors @ Timberwolves – Game 3

📊 Matchup Notes:

• 1 Baller System on the Under
• Warriors: 1-8 1H O/U as a home underdog
• Timberwolves: 7-18 1H O/U as a road favorite

✅ Play: 1H Under 97

Breakdown:
This isn’t the same Warriors team we’re used to seeing – and with Stephen Curry still out, Golden State is relying more on defense and slowing the pace. That plays directly into the 1H Under.

Add in a supporting Baller System supporting the under, and we’re locking in on the 1H Under 97. Expect a slower, defensive grind early before things potentially open up late.

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Published: Thursday, April 17, 11:40 PM CT

We’re down to the final two Play-In Tournament matchups — the winners punch their ticket as the 8th seed in their respective conferences and lock in a first-round playoff date.

Let’s break down the sharp angles for both games. 🔥

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Heat @ Hawks

📊 Matchup Notes:

• Baller System: Backing road favorites who won the previous head-to-head matchup at home
• Heat: 5-1 ATS on the road in their last 15
• Heat: 48-32-2 1H ATS overall / 11-7-1 1H ATS as road favorites
• Model edge: Hawks (+1) have just a 48.7% chance of covering

✅ Play: Heat 1H PK
This is a first-half only spot, and the data backs it up. Miami has been elite in 1H splits all season, especially on the road, while they’ve shown a tendency to blow leads late. Tyler Herro has stepped up big-time in the absence of Jimmy Butler, and with Trae Young not fully healthy and coming off an ejection, the Heat should come out focused and aggressive. Even if Atlanta rallies late, the first half edge is clearly with Miami.

Mavericks @ Grizzlies

📊 Matchup Notes:

• Grizzlies: 80% to the Under at home over their last 15 (1-4-0 O/U)
• Baller System: Unders in quick-turnaround rematches when total opens lower than previous game
• Mavericks: 21-9 O/U as road underdogs

✅ Play: Under 221.5
This is a great setup for an Under play. These teams just faced off to end the regular season — that game closed at 228.5 and went Over, but now we see a total of 221.5, a 7-point drop. That tells us something: the market expects regression, particularly on Dallas’s side. Luka and company shot lights-out last time, but that’s unlikely to repeat. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, continue to play a gritty, slower style with strong defensive focus at home. Even though the Mavericks have hit overs as road underdogs, the matchup and the system both favor a more controlled pace and lower score.