Author: The Money Baller Team

NFL Week 18: Team Trends

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to NFL Week 18! A poor 0-2 on last week’s newsletter, bringing our released picks to 27-23-2.

As we enter the final week of the regular season, it’s important to tread carefully. This is the time of year when unexpected rotations, surprise scratches, and unpredictable motivation levels can lead to chaos – or as we like to call it, “shenanigans.” Because of this, our focus shifts more toward the playoffs, where the intensity is higher and the data holds stronger value.

With that in mind, there will be no official picks in this week’s article. Instead, we’ll highlight a few key trends to keep on your radar as the regular season winds down. While it may not be the week to dive in headfirst, these insights can still help guide your decision-making or provide useful context for live betting opportunities.

Let’s dive into some notable trends to monitor.


Click here for NFL Week 18 Matchup Pages


NFL Week 18 – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
  • Cowboys: 1-5 ATS as home underdogs
  • Commanders: 4-0 ATS as favorites of 2.5-7
  • Panthers: 12-3-1 1H O/U
  • Bears: 4-12 1H ATS
  • Bills: 13-3 Team Total O/U
  • Titans: 2-13-1 ATS this season
  • Titans: Opponents’ Team Total 12-3-1 O/U
  • Chargers: 6-0 1H and full game ATS as road favorites
  • Dolphins: 3-13 1H Team Total O/U this season
  • Lions: 12-4 1H ATS this season


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Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.8% clip, going 158-120-10 ATS. (8-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 47-32-4 ATS (59.5%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Ravens, Buccaneers, Packers, and Broncos.





NFL Week 15 Newsletter: Stats, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 15 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 14 Newsletter picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 23-18-2.


NFL Week 15 Newsletter Table of Contents:


Click here for NFL Week 14 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Titans: 2-10-1 ATS this season
  • Bengals: 4-0 ATS as road favorites
  • Giants: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs
  • Ravens: 10-3 O/U this season
  • Panthers: 10-2-1 1H O/U this season
  • Dolphins: 2-11 1H Team Total O/U this season
  • Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
  • Broncos: 10-3 ATS (4-0 ATS as home favorites)
  • Broncos: 10-2-1 1H O/U (4-0 1H O/U as home favorites)
  • Chargers: 10-2-1 1H ATS this season
  • Chargers: 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 2-11 O/U this season.
  • Chargers: 2-8-1 ATS in L11 games as underdogs
  • Steelers: 10-3 ATS this season (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
  • Steelers: 3-9 1H O/U this season
  • Eagles: 4-9 1H O/U this season (1-4 1H O/U at home)
  • Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season
  • Bills: 11-2 Team Total O/U this season
  • Bears: 0-6 1H ATS on the road this season.
  • Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 3-13 ATS in L16 games as underdogs.


Not active this week:

  • Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.



II. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Scoring cooled off slightly in Week 14, with games averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG), a slight dip from Week 13’s 48.4 PPG. The median scoring also reflected this shift at 47 points, compared to the previous week’s elevated scoring pace. The season-long scoring average now stands at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 14 finished 6-7 O/U, highlighting a balanced but slightly under-leaning week.


Season Trends

  • Season-long totals record: 107-98-3 to the over.
  • Week 15 average total: 45.0, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.


Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders

  1. Divisional Familiarity
    Teams meeting for the second time in a season tend to limit explosive plays, leaning into more cautious play-calling and defensive adjustments.
  2. Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
    With playoff spots on the line, contenders often employ conservative strategies, prioritizing ball security and field position over high-risk, high-reward plays.
  3. Weather Conditions
    December games in outdoor stadiums can be heavily influenced by cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation, which impact both passing and kicking efficiency. This can lead to a slower pace and fewer points.


Week 15 Takeaways

The slight decrease in scoring and the lower average total for Week 15 suggest the market is beginning to account for late-season trends. However, these conditions create opportunities for sharp bettors to target potential unders, especially in divisional matchups and games with significant playoff implications.

As the season progresses, staying disciplined and adapting to the evolving scoring environment will be critical for finding value in totals betting. strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.



III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 52-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 8-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Ravens (vs. Giants) in Week 15.


IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 161-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 10-4 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Buccaneers (fade the Chargers) in Week 15.


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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.4% clip, going 154-119-10 ATS. (5-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Ravens -16.5 this week against the Panthers.







NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Breakdowns



Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

The Baltimore Ravens head into their matchup against the New York Giants as double-digit road favorites, and for good reason. This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore to bounce back, backed by favorable trends and situational advantages.

The Ravens come off a bye week with extra rest and preparation, a critical factor as they look to rebound from an poor showing against Philadelphia. Baltimore benefits from a classic Baller System: backing road favorites coming off a loss as home favorites. Historically, teams in this situation have performed well, and the Ravens’ dominant roster and added motivation make them prime candidates to continue that trend.

On the other side, the Giants have all but packed it in for the season. With Tommy DeVito under center, their offense remains among the least effective in the league. The team is seemingly shifting its focus toward rebuilding, with their eyes set on next season and potentially securing a favorable draft position.

A particularly glaring trend works against the Giants: they are 0-7 ATS in the first half as home underdogs. This highlights their inability to compete early in games, a pattern that seems unlikely to change against a rested and motivated Ravens team.

The combination of situational advantages for Baltimore and the Giants’ season-long struggles makes this an appealing spot to back the Ravens early. Ravens 1H is the recommended play, capitalizing on their preparation and the Giants’ consistent first-half woes.

Pick: Ravens 1H -8.5



Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

This game features two of our favorite Baller Systems that both favor the under. The setup presents a strong case for a lower-scoring affair, driven by situational and performance factors for both teams.

The Bengals come into this game off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football. Their thrilling win against Dallas featured a miraculous touchdown after a botched blocked kick, making it an emotionally taxing victory. With a divisional showdown against the Browns looming, Cincinnati may struggle to maintain focus and perform at their best.

Adding to their woes, the Bengals’ defense has been underwhelming and inconsistent, which would typically favor the over. However, Tennessee’s lackluster offense mitigates this concern. The Titans rank 31st in Offensive DVOA, making them one of the least efficient offenses in the league.

The line for this game is particularly revealing and supports a play on the under. Considering the Bengals’ poor scheduling spot, their potential letdown, and Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this game aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. Backing the under is the move in this matchup.


Pick: Under 46.5


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

The Packers enter this matchup with a significant rest advantage, while the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. Seattle is coming off an upset victory against a divisional opponent and now returns home after spending the past two weeks on the road. This situation is often a classic letdown spot, as teams struggle to maintain intensity after emotional road wins.

On the other hand, Green Bay is seeking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Lions. A key Baller System is active here, favoring the Packers:

  • Fade Underdogs After a Game with Two or More Rushing Touchdowns.
    This system highlights the unsustainability of teams relying heavily on the ground game to secure a win. Historical data shows that such performances are unlikely to repeat consistently, especially when injuries impact key contributors.

Seattle’s reliance on the run game becomes even more concerning with Kenneth Walker’s status in question. If Walker is unavailable or limited, the Seahawks’ offense could struggle to replicate their success from the previous game, creating a significant edge for Green Bay. Backing the Packers is the play here.

Pick: Packers -2.5 (-115)



Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

NFL Week 14 Newsletter: Stats, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 2 picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 21-18-2.


NFL Week 14 Newsletter Table of Contents:


Click here for NFL Week 14 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
  • Panthers: 9-2-1 1H O/U this season.
  • Titans: 2-9-1 ATS this season.
  • Chargers: 10-1-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-11 O/U this season.
  • Chargers: 1-8-1 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
  • Bears: 0-5 1H ATS on the road this season.
  • Bills: 10-2 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 3-12 ATS in L15 games as underdogs.
  • Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.


Not active this week:

  • Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
  • Chargers: 8-1 ATS as favorites this season.
  • Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
  • Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season.



II. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Scoring has been on an upward trend for the third consecutive week, with Week 13 games averaging 48.4 points per game (PPG). This marks an increase from 47.7 PPG in Week 12 and 46.8 PPG in Week 11. However, this rise is slightly skewed by high-scoring games like Steelers vs. Bengals (82 points) and Broncos vs. Browns (73 points). Excluding these outliers, the median scoring sits at 46 PPG, revealing the average is somewhat inflated. The season-long scoring average has now ticked up to 45.6 PPG.

Totals betting in Week 13 ended 7-8 O/U, a mixed result that reflects this upward scoring trend but hints at potential shifts in Week 14.

Season Trends and Week 14 Outlook

  • Season-long totals record: 101-91-3 to the over.
  • Week 14 average total: 45.4, consistent with season-long scoring.

Despite the recent scoring spike, historical trends suggest a late-season shift toward lower-scoring games. This is often driven by divisional familiarity, more conservative game plans for playoff contenders, and weather impacts.

Strategies for Betting Totals in Week 14

  1. Target Inflated Totals: Higher lines stemming from recent scoring surges may create value for unders, especially where pace, weather, or situational factors point to fewer points.
  2. Focus on Pace and Red Zone Efficiency: Teams playing at slower paces or with struggles in the red zone are prime under candidates.
  3. Monitor Weather Conditions: Early forecasts can reveal opportunities for unders before the market reacts.

Key Takeaways

As Week 14 approaches, disciplined bettors can capitalize on potential market inefficiencies caused by scoring trends. Late-season dynamics—such as familiarity, playoff implications, and unpredictable weather—make unders an appealing strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.


III. Fading home teams off an OT win


One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 55-32-4 record (63.2% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 4-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Buccaneers (play on the Raiders +6.5) in Week 14.



IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Bengals (vs. Cowboys) in Week 14.


V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 160-108-3 ATS (59.7%). Backing this has gone 9-4 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Seahawks (fade the Cardinals) in Week 14.


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VI. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 154-118-10 ATS. (5-3 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Eagles -13.5 this week against the Panthers.







NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Breakdowns


Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks enter this pivotal NFC West clash with momentum over the Arizona Cardinals. With two Baller Systems pointing in their favor, here’s why we’re taking the Seahawks to cover as underdogs:

  1. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites Off a Loss
    Arizona suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Vikings in their previous outing, a classic setup for fading teams in this spot.
  2. Baller System: Backing Divisional Dogs Who Dominate the Matchup
    Seattle has won the last two head-to-head matchups against Arizona, indicating they’ve figured out how to handle this divisional rival. This confidence should carry over into this crucial game.
  3. Seahawks Road Resilience
    Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, proving their ability to deliver away from home. Conversely, the Cardinals are returning home after two road games over the Thanksgiving stretch—a situation that often results in mental and physical fatigue.
  4. Momentum and Playoff Implications
    The Seahawks are riding a three-game win streak and come into this matchup motivated, knowing the impact it has on the divisional playoff picture. While the Cardinals might argue it’s a revenge spot, Seattle’s recent form and cohesion give me more confidence.
  5. Kenneth Walker’s Availability and Depth
    Even with Kenneth Walker listed as questionable, the Seahawks can rely on Zach Charbonnet, a capable backup who can carry the load if needed.

Seattle’s well-rounded performance and mental edge in recent matchups make them the smart play here. I would try to find a Seahawks +3 (-115 or better) but would also take Seahawks +2.5 if that is your best option.

Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115)


Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

This Week 14 matchup sets up favorably for the Bengals, supported by two key Baller Systems and strong situational trends:

1. Road Favorites Off a Loss

Road favorites of 2.5+ points, coming off a home loss as favorites, sport a 51-22-4 ATS record since 2018, including 7-3 ATS this season. This reflects the strong bounce-back potential of teams favored on the road after an unexpected setback. Cincinnati fits the profile, signaling a confident rebound opportunity.

2. Favorites After High-Turnover Games

Teams coming off turnover-heavy games tend to rebound with a better focus on ball security. The Bengals’ offense remains highly efficient despite recent defensive struggles, making them reliable in this spot.

3. Favorable Matchup Context

  • Cowboys Offensive Struggles: Ranked 27th in Offensive DVOA, Dallas lacks the firepower to exploit Cincinnati’s defensive lapses.
  • Line Confidence: The Bengals are -5 favorites despite a worse record, indicating trust from the market in their potential to dominate. Cincinnati has faced a rough schedule in the last few weeks, and should be able to bounce back against the lowly Cowboys.

4. Notable Trends Against the Cowboys

  • 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs.
  • 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.


Pick: Bengals -5.5



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NFL Week 13 Newsletter Part 1: Thanksgiving Week Angles

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the Part 1 of NFL Week 13 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 18-17-2.

This week, we will do things in two parts. Our first part will have a short breakdown on Thursday and Friday angles, and we’ll do a part two that will look like our traditional one on Saturday.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

  • Lions: 9-2 1H and full game ATS this season
  • Lions: lost 7 straight Thanksgiving games outright
  • Bears: 4-7 1H ATS this season
  • Teams playing on Thursday after their previous game was in overtime have gone 6-25 ATS (3-16 ATS on the road)

TMB thoughts: The Lions have been a powerhouse ATS this season, boasting an impressive 9-2 record for both 1H and full game. On Thanksgiving, they’re looking to shake off a long-standing curse, having lost seven straight games outright on the holiday. But this season feels different. Detroit is firing on all cylinders, led by Dan Campbell’s aggressive coaching style and a balanced attack that has them sitting atop the NFC North.

The Bears come into this matchup with a rookie quarterback, and while they’ve shown flashes of potential, they’ve been inconsistent, particularly early in games (4-7 1H ATS). Adding to their challenges is a brutal trend for teams playing on a short week after an OT game—they are 6-25 ATS (3-16 ATS on the road). This situational spot screams letdown for Chicago, especially against a hungry Lions team eager to make a statement.

We expect the Lions to come out with intensity, feeding off the energy of a national audience. Lions 1H -6.5 is our favorite play, as they’ve consistently started strong this season. We also lean toward Detroit to cover the full game, given the mismatch in momentum and preparation.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

  • Cowboys: 2-11 ATS in L13 Thanksgiving games.
  • Cowboys: 0-7 ATS in L7 home games

TMB thoughts: On paper, the Cowboys have been a classic fade on Thanksgiving. However, this matchup features a Giants team that has struggled mightily this season, both offensively and defensively, and is riddled with uncertainty at the quarterback position.

The Giants’ injuries and lackluster performance make it hard to trust them to take advantage of the Cowboys’ poor Thanksgiving history. At the same time, betting on Dallas to overcome these trends feels equally unappealing.

Ultimately, this game presents too many conflicting factors and not enough value to confidently take a side. We’ll stay on the sidelines for this one.


Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers

  • Dolphins: 1-10 1H Team Total O/U this season (0-5 1H TT O/U on the road)
  • Dolphins: 2-9 1H O/U (0-5 1H O/U on the road)

TMB thoughts: While the Dolphins have struggled to produce in the first half throughout the season, especially on the road, it’s worth noting they’ve shown improvement on offense since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. His presence has reinvigorated their passing game and added consistency to the offense, possibly making the under trends slightly less reliable than earlier in the season.

If you want to bet this game, we are leaning the Dolphins 1H Team Total Under 10.5 or 1H Under 23.5, but tread carefully as Miami’s offense continues to find its rhythm with Tua.


Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

TMB thoughts: Multiple Baller Systems are aligning with a play on the Under 42.5 for this matchup. The Raiders will start rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell, which adds uncertainty to their offensive production. Kansas City’s defense has been one of the league’s best this season, ranking among the top in both scoring and total defense.

Additionally, the game script is likely to favor the Chiefs dominating early, leading to a conservative approach in the second half. Historically, large spreads, such as this one, often correlate with lower-scoring games as the leading team opts to control the clock.

With a rookie QB under pressure against a tough defense and the Chiefs’ ability to manage a lead, the Under 42.5 feels like a strong play in this spot.

NFL Week 12 Newsletter: Stats, Thanksgiving Week Angles, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 12 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 17-15-2.

 
NFL Week 12 Newsletter Table of Contents:

Click here for NFL Week 12 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Browns: 2-9 Team Total O/U this season (including TNF)
  • Dolphins: 0-10 1H Team Total O/U this season.
  • Texans: 10-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
  • Titans: 1-8-1 ATS this season.
  • Lions: 8-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
  • Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
  • Cowboys: 2-12 ATS in L14 games as underdogs.
  • Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
  • Panthers: 8-1-1 1H O/U this season.
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-10 O/U this season.
  • Ravens: 9-2 O/U this season
  • Chargers: 8-1-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.


Not active this week:

  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
  • Chargers: 3-12 O/U in L15 games as favorites
  • Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
  • Cowboys: 0-7 ATS in L7 home games.



II. NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


After a few weeks of lower scoring, NFL offenses found new life in Week 11, averaging 46.8 points per game and pushing the season-long average up to 45.1 PPG. Overs went 8-6 for the week, and the median scoring settled at 46.5 PPG. While this spike might suggest a return to high-scoring contests, there are compelling reasons to believe the NFL is still trending toward unders as the season enters its late stages.

A Balanced Totals Market

The season’s overall totals record now stands at 84-80-3 to the over, highlighting how closely contested the over/under market has been. Week 12’s average total is set at 44.3, slightly below the scoring average for the week.

Despite the high-scoring performance in Week 11, several key factors support a broader trend toward lower-scoring games as the season progresses:

  • Divisional Rematches: Late-season divisional matchups are notorious for lower scores. Teams facing each other for the second time in a season have already developed familiarity with their opponent’s schemes, which often results in more conservative play-calling and fewer explosive plays. These games tend to favor grinding, defensive battles over shootouts.
  • Playoff Stakes: As playoff implications become more significant, teams in contention tend to tighten up their gameplay. Risk-averse strategies often emerge, emphasizing field position and ball security over aggressive downfield throws. This cautious approach can lead to slower-paced games and fewer points on the board. On the flip side, teams that are eliminated from playoff contention might use the remaining games to experiment with younger players or new schemes, which can lead to disjointed offensive performances and fewer scoring opportunities.
  • Weather Impacts: Late November and December introduce unpredictable weather conditions, especially in outdoor stadiums. Cold temperatures, high winds, and precipitation can significantly impact passing and kicking efficiency, favoring lower-scoring games. Key Locations to Watch: Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, and Cleveland are prime examples of cities where weather conditions can swing game outcomes toward the under.

Adapting Your Betting Strategy

For bettors looking to capitalize on this trend, here are a few considerations to keep in mind:

  • Look for Inflated Totals
    Week 11’s scoring surge may lead to higher totals in Week 12 and beyond. Target games where matchups or situational factors suggest a lower-scoring game despite an inflated total.
  • Focus on Pace of Play and Red Zone Efficiency
    Teams with slow pace of play or struggles in the red zone are strong under candidates. They may move the ball but fail to convert drives into touchdowns, which keeps scoring in check.
  • Monitor Weather Early
    Weather-related impacts are often baked into lines closer to kickoff, but savvy bettors who track forecasts early can find value before the market adjusts.

Final Thoughts

While Week 11 showcased a temporary resurgence in scoring, the broader landscape of late-season NFL football still favors unders. Defenses are adjusting, playoff stakes are influencing game strategies, and weather conditions will become increasingly impactful. As the market reacts to recent trends, sharp bettors can find value by identifying matchups and conditions that support lower-scoring outcomes.

Stay disciplined, adapt to shifting trends, and keep these factors in mind as you hunt for edges in the market. The late season is where careful analysis can pay off the most.


III. Double Digit Favorites


When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 147-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 5 out of 6 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Chiefs -10.5 and Commanders -10.5, .


IV. Fading home teams off an OT win


One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Panthers (play on the Chiefs -10.5) in Week 12.



V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

No active plays this week, but this is one of our favorite systems to follow.


VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.

VII. Thanksgiving Games


As Thanksgiving approaches, it’s time to examine how the holiday games influence betting outcomes. Historical trends since 2012 reveal actionable insights for this week and beyond, particularly for totals and spreads.

Unders Leading Up to Thanksgiving

Teams with Thanksgiving games on the horizon tend to see lower-scoring contests the week before. Since 2012, these teams are a strong 40-23-1 to the under. This trend applies to the following matchups:

  • Packers vs. 49ers
  • Giants vs. Buccaneers
  • Cowboys vs. Commanders
  • Bears vs. Vikings
  • Dolphins vs. Patriots
  • Lions vs. Colts

Breaking it down further, teams hosting Thanksgiving games show an even stronger trend, going 25-10 to the under in the week prior. This narrows the focus to:

  • Packers vs. 49ers
  • Cowboys vs. Commanders
  • Lions vs. Colts

Spread Trends for Thanksgiving Teams

Road teams looking ahead to Thanksgiving games have excelled against the spread, posting a 15-6 record since 2012. This trend points to plays on:

  • Cowboys +10.5
  • Lions -7.5

Thanksgiving Day Fade Opportunities

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day itself, historical data since 2011 shows home teams struggle to cover, going 13-25 ATS. This trend suggests fading the following teams on Thanksgiving:

  • Packers
  • Cowboys
  • Lions

Takeaways for Bettors

Thanksgiving creates unique situational betting opportunities. Unders have been particularly profitable in the lead-up to the holiday, while spreads favor road teams looking ahead to Thanksgiving games. On the day itself, home teams historically underperform, making them prime candidates for fades.

Keep these trends in mind as you prepare for the Thanksgiving slate and seek edges in the market.


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NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Breakdowns


Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Carolina Panthers in Week 11, and the situational and historical betting trends strongly favor Kansas City in Week 12.

The Panthers are coming off a rare and emotional overtime win against the Giants in Germany, which sets them up for a letdown. Teams returning from a neutral-site game before a bye week have struggled historically, going 3-18-1 ATS since November 2018.

Betting against teams coming off an overtime victory has been one of the most reliable systems over the past decade. Since 2011, home teams in this situation are 54-31-4 ATS (62.7%). The Panthers are likely to be worn down from last week’s emotional and physical toll, in addition to the international travel.

Patrick Mahomes looks to rebound after a tough loss to the Bills, where he threw two interceptions and struggled to fully integrate DeAndre Hopkins into the offense. Facing the Panthers’ defense ranked 29th in Defensive DVOA, Mahomes has an opportunity to dominate with Hopkins. While betting on large spreads can be intimidating, history shows that favorites of 10+ points have been profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (147-114-10 ATS) since 2015. Chiefs are 8-2-1 ATS in road games after a loss, dating back to 2019.

The Panthers’ recent wins against weak competition (Saints, Giants) don’t inspire confidence when facing a top-tier team like Kansas City. The Chiefs are set for a bounce-back performance after losing their first game of the season.

Pick: Chiefs -10.5


San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

The San Francisco 49ers travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in what shapes up as a defensive, low-scoring affair. With key trends and situational factors aligning, we’ve got our eyes set on the total.

The 49ers will be without quarterback Brock Purdy, a major shift that favors a slower-paced game plan. Expect San Francisco to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey and the ground attack, controlling the clock and limiting possessions. The 49ers have already demonstrated a trend toward low-scoring first halves on the road, going 4-0 to the 1H under this season.

This game is a rematch of last season’s playoff matchup, which further supports the under. Since 2018, playoff rematches in the regular season have trended significantly under the total, hitting at a remarkable 49-28-3 clip. The familiarity between these teams and the stakes typically lead to tighter, more defensive contests.

Teams playing the week before Thanksgiving historically see lower-scoring games. Since 2012, such teams are 40-23-1 to the under, with the trend even stronger for home teams hosting Thanksgiving games, going 25-10 to the under. This system applies to the Packers, who are likely focused on limiting mistakes and grinding out a win ahead of their Thanksgiving matchup.

With Purdy out, the 49ers relying on their run game, and multiple trends pointing toward lower scoring, the under 44.5 offers strong value despite some lost line movement.

Pick: Under 44.5


Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Despite their improved play this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have struggled against the spread as underdogs. Over their last nine games in this role, they are a disappointing 1-7-1 ATS, casting doubt on their ability to rise to the occasion against strong competition.

The Ravens are coming off a surprising loss to the Steelers as favorites, but road favorites off a loss in this spot have historically bounced back strongly. Baltimore’s well-coached, disciplined team typically responds well to adversity, and this matchup provides the perfect opportunity to recalibrate. They are 9-1 ATS after their previous 10 losses.

While the Chargers have been red-hot, much of their recent success can be attributed to a soft schedule. Facing Baltimore represents a significant step up in competition, testing whether their resurgence is sustainable against a quality opponent.

The Ravens are in a great spot to bounce back, while the Chargers face questions about their ability to deliver against a top-tier team. The trends and situational angles favor Baltimore here.

Pick: Ravens -2.5





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NFL Week 11 Newsletter: Stats, Overtime Angles, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 11 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 15-14-2.

 
NFL Week 11 Newsletter Table of Contents:

Click here for NFL Week 11 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Chargers: 2-12 O/U in L14 games as favorites
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-9 O/U this season.
  • Bengals: 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
  • Dolphins: 0-9 1H Team Total O/U this season.
  • Dolphins: 0-5 ATS in L5 games at home.
  • Texans: 9-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
  • Browns: 1-8 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Lions: 7-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
  • Ravens: 9-1 O/U this season
  • Cowboys: 2-11 ATS in L13 games as underdogs.
  • Cowboys: 0-6 ATS in L6 home games.


Not active this week:

  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
  • Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
  • Panthers: 8-0-1 1H O/U this season.
  • Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
  • Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
  • Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.



II. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Week 10 brought another dip in NFL scoring, with games averaging 40.7 points, below the season average of 44.9. The week leaned heavily toward unders, finishing 9-4-1, with the median points per game settling at 39. This marks a cooling off after a more high-scoring stretch earlier in the season. Overall, the season’s totals now stand at 76-74-3 to the over, showing a trend toward normalization.

Defenses are adjusting, and external factors like weather and playoff stakes will continue to impact scoring. As the season progresses, betting strategies around totals may need to evolve. Sharp bettors will look for value in under opportunities, especially with rising market expectations for overs.

Key considerations for targeting unders include:

  • Late-season divisional rematches: Familiarity between teams can slow scoring.
  • Playoff implications: Tighter, more cautious gameplay may emerge.
  • Weather impacts: Conditions in outdoor stadiums may favor lower scores.

Keep these factors in mind as you adapt to shifting trends and hunt for edges in the market.



III. Double Digit Favorites


When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Lions -13.5 this week against the Jaguars.


IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-10 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-2 ATS this season.  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active on the Bills and Jets in Week 11.



V. Fading home teams off an OT win


One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and while there are no active plays this week, it will be active to fade the Panthers next week off their bye week.



VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active on the Rams -4.5 this week.


VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.


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NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Breakdowns


Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Rams head into this week’s matchup against the New England Patriots with a fully healthy roster, featuring star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Both players now have several games under their belts to shake off the rust and gain some rhythm.

The Rams are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Patriots, a result that sets up a potential bounce-back scenario. On the other hand, New England enters this game riding high after an upset victory over the Bears as underdogs. This creates an intriguing dynamic: a Rams team looking to rebound versus a Patriots squad vulnerable to a letdown.

Historically, the situation heavily favors Los Angeles. As mentioned above, since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a remarkable 50-21-4 ATS record.

Another point of concern for the Patriots is their inability to perform at home. Over their last 15 games in Foxborough, they’ve gone a dismal 2-11-2 ATS.

The oddsmakers’ decision to favor the Rams on the road, despite their recent setback, reflects confidence in their ability to respond. With all these factors at play, the Rams seem poised to get back on track and cover the spread.

Pick: Rams -4.5


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have been a model of consistency this season, holding a stellar 7-2 ATS record in both first halves and full games. This week, they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team missing Trevor Lawrence, whose absence amplifies the Lions’ advantage.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks second to last in Defensive DVOA, setting up Jared Goff for a potential bounce-back performance after his uncharacteristic five-interception outing. Adding to the Lions’ edge, we have a Baller System active: backing a favorite off a game where they were favored but committed two or more turnovers. These factors point to a dominant showing for Detroit.

Historically, double-digit favorites have proven profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (146-114-10 ATS) since 2015, with success increasing as spreads grow larger. Even this season, double-digit favorites have maintained their edge, covering 4 out of 5 times.

At -13.5, the Lions’ consistency and the depleted Jaguars roster make them a compelling play. Backing heavy favorites can seem daunting, but the numbers suggest there’s often a reward for taking the leap.

Pick: Lions -13.5 (up to -14)



Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

This matchup features challenging situational spots for both teams. The Raiders are traveling cross-country and may already have their sights set on a divisional clash with the Broncos next week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a potential lookahead scenario, preparing for their own divisional game against the Patriots, and they’re coming off shorter rest after playing on Monday Night Football.

The potential absence of Tyreek Hill further complicates Miami’s offense, removing a key playmaker and potentially slowing down their normally explosive scoring.

Additionally, two of our favorite Baller Systems are active on the under for this game. These align with the broader trend of unders hitting frequently this season, particularly in games where fatigue or situational distractions play a role.

With a total set at 44, and the combination of unfavorable setups for both teams, this game shapes up as a strong play for the under.

Pick: Under 44





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NFL Week 9 Newsletter: Stats, Double Digit Favorites, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 9 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 12-12-2.

 
NFL Week 9 Newsletter Table of Contents:

Click here for NFL Week 9 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Chargers: 1-11 O/U in L12 games as favorites
  • Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-7 O/U this season.
  • Dolphins: 0-7 1H Team Total O/U and 1-6 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Dolphins: 0-8 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.
  • Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
  • Panthers: 7-0-1 1H O/U this season.
  • Panthers: 1-7 1H ATS and full game ATS this season.
  • Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Colts: 7-1 ATS this season
  • Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-7 O/U this season.
  • Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
  • Ravens: 7-1 O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 2-9 ATS in L11 games as underdogs.
  • Buccaneers: 7-1 1H O/U this season.


Not active this week:

  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Bears: 7-1 ATS In L8 home games.
  • Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
  • Titans: 2-9 ATS in L11 road games.
  • Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.



II. NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Week 8 was a scoring bonanza in the NFL, with totals going 12-4 to the over and games averaging 48.6 points—well above the season’s average of 45.3. The median points scored also rose to 48.5, indicating that scoring wasn’t just skewed by a few high-flying games but was fairly widespread. With offensive fireworks lighting up the scoreboard, the season’s total record now stands at 65-57-2 to the over.

This recent surge has started to push market totals higher. After hovering around 44 points earlier in the season, totals have now jumped to an average of 45.5, reflecting the league’s trend toward higher-scoring outcomes. The increase signals that oddsmakers are adjusting to meet the season’s rising offensive production, likely influenced by a range of factors—from rule changes favoring offenses to injuries on the defensive side across multiple teams.

The week’s high-scoring matchups provide a window into what could be a continued shift in scoring trends, with dynamic offenses and fast-paced game scripts dictating many games. As the season progresses, bettors and fans alike may want to watch for further upward adjustments in totals as teams find their stride on the offensive end.



III. Double Digit Favorites


When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.


IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-1 ATS this season..  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. There are no active games this week, but potentially the Cardinals and Giants in Week 10.

I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41-2 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. This is active on the Seahawks and Packers this week.



V. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches


Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.



VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.


VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 158-106-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Ravens and Titans in Week 9.




NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Breakdowns


Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

The Bears are looking to rebound after a heartbreaking loss on a Hail Mary, and they may be primed for a low-scoring showdown with the Cardinals. Chicago’s defense ranks among the top in the league, allowing just 17 points per game (4th fewest), and they’ve managed to keep every one of their seven opponents under their team total this season. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 29th in plays per game, which could further limit scoring opportunities in this matchup.

Two of our top under systems are active here, and there’s strong reason to think this game will favor a slow pace. If the Bears lean on the ground game with Swift, they could dominate time of possession and wear down Arizona’s defense, shortening the game. Both teams also have run-heavy tendencies due to weaknesses in their opponents’ run defenses, which could lead to longer, clock-draining drives on both sides.

All signs point to a game script that keeps the score down, making the under a solid play in this matchup.

Pick: Cardinals/Bears Under 44.5


Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

It’s not the flashiest pick, but we’re fading the red-hot Ravens in a tough situational spot. After a two-game road stint, Baltimore returns home sandwiched between two divisional matchups, with a big Thursday night game against the Bengals looming. This setup has all the signs of a classic letdown spot.

The Ravens’ defense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 24th in yards per pass play allowed and just 18th in Defensive DVOA—far from the intimidating Ravens defenses of the past. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense is showing up strong, ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA and allowing the 3rd fewest points per game along with the fewest yards per play in the league.

Lamar Jackson has been banged up, missing practice time this week, while Bo Nix has shown some potential. Given these factors, we’re backing the Broncos at +9.5 in this spot.


Pick: Broncos +9.5





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NFL Week 8 Newsletter: Stats, Bye Weeks Analysis, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 8 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 10-10-2.

 
NFL Week 8 Newsletter Table of Contents:

Click here for NFL Week 8 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Titans: 2-8 ATS in L10 road games.
  • Chargers: 1-10 O/U in L11 games as favorites
  • Chargers: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
  • Seahawks: 6-1 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Panthers: 6-1 1H O/U this season.
  • Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Colts: 1-6 1H O/U this season.
  • Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
  • Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
  • Eagles: 2-10 O/U in L12 road games.
  • Eagles: 1-5 1H ATS this season.
  • Patriots: 1-11-2 ATS in L14 home games.
  • Ravens: 6-1 O/U this season (4-0 O/U on the road).
  • Dolphins: 0-6 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 2-8 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.


Includes Thursday Night Football results:

  • Vikings: 1-10 O/U as road favorites (including neutral field) since Dec 20, 2021.
  • Vikings: 8-1-2 ATS as road favorites since Dec 20, 2021.


Not active this week:

  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Bears: 7-0 ATS In L7 home games.
  • Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
  • Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
  • Dolphins: 0-7 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.



II. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Totals go 9-6 to the under in Week 7, with an average of 45.4 points per game (on par with the season average of 45) and a median of 46. This brings the total O/U record to 53-52-2 for the season. Market totals have stayed constant for a few weeks now, hovering around the 44 mark. As of right now, average market totals for Week 8 is 44.2.




III. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 29-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 4-1 ATS this season..  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active to play on the 49ers and Steelers in Week 8.

I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. Another one that is not active, but is something we will monitor going forward.



IV. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches


Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.



V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 49-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 5-2 ATS this season (with the Vikings losing on Thursday). This is active on the Falcons in Week 8.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.


VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 156-105-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Texans and Dolphins in Week 8.




NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Breakdowns


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

As the Indianapolis Colts get ready to face the Houston Texans, situational factors strongly favor the Colts. The betting market seems to agree, with the spread moving to Colts +5 after opening at a higher line.

The Texans return home after a two-game road stretch, often a tough spot for teams, especially with a short week and a Thursday night matchup against the Jets on deck. This look-ahead factor may lead Houston to overlook Indianapolis, leaving an opening for the Colts to take advantage.

The Colts are motivated to make up for a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Texans, and they come into this matchup with a healthier roster (Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Deforest Buckner) than they’ve had in weeks. With star receiver Nico Collins out for the Texans, the Colts’ defense could have an edge here as well.

Indianapolis has been consistent at covering the spread, going 5-1 ATS this season. The Colts’ situational edge, combined with Houston’s potential distractions, makes Indianapolis a strong play at +5. Expect a focused Colts team ready to take advantage of the circumstances.

    Pick: Colts +5


    Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

    This AFC West matchup has two of our strongest “under” systems active, and given both teams’ recent performances, it’s easy to see why. The undefeated Chiefs have leaned on their defense to keep their winning streak alive, despite dealing with numerous injuries. Their game plan likely involves a run-heavy approach featuring Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine, while DeAndre Hopkins, a recent addition, may have limited impact after just joining the team.

    On the other side, the Raiders’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 29th in Offensive DVOA, indicating they’re one of the least efficient offensive units in the league. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to contain them effectively, making it unlikely that Las Vegas will put up many points.

    Given these factors, the under at 41.5 looks appealing, as both teams seem positioned for a low-scoring contest.


    Pick: Chiefs/Raiders Under 41.5


    Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Buccaneers head into this game on short rest and significantly weakened by the loss of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With limited offensive options, Tampa Bay faces a difficult matchup against a Falcons team that’s eager to put last week’s disappointing home loss to the Seahawks behind them.

    Historically, teams that suffer an unexpected loss at home as favorites often bounce back strong in their following game. The Falcons’ status as road favorites here suggests confidence from oddsmakers that Atlanta can deliver a solid rebound. Their determination is further fueled by Kirk Cousins’ incredible 500+ yard passing performance last month, setting a high bar for the offense to match. There’s an additional Baller System backing a favorite off a game with low turnovers – a potential sign they will protect the ball and put themselves in a better position to win.

    Signs point to Atlanta covering the spread here, and we like them at -2.5.



    Pick: Falcons -2.5






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