Author: Caleb Bets

Jordin Canada is set to make her return for Atlanta today, after suffering a knee injury in the opening minute of their first preseason game. At the time it seemed like a season ender, so I’m glad she is back and so soon. Unlikely to get any comment on minutes until the pregame media conference with Smesko, as we can’t pull from any media availability as The Dream have yet to have a game in June.

Canada has only shown a handful of possessions with this team, but they opened that preseason gave with a mid-PnR with Griner. BG popped, Brionna was on wing, so Atlanta’s spacing looked really promising. ‘Drive and Kick’ should tear The Sun apart today similar to last outing, where The Dream beat The Sun by 24 points. With Canada last season, Rhyne Howard had 5+ assists in just 2/18 games

The 1-6 Sun are currently dead-last in DRTG (112.8) and OPP Pts off TOV allowed. Granted, you would be hard-pressed to find an area that they rank above average in defensively. Two main keys fed into Atlanta’s dominant victory 2 weeks ago:
– Rebounding. ATL notched 52 rebounds (without BG!), with 40 of them coming on the defensive glass off of Connecticut’s 45 total missed shots. With Griner reentering the lineup in favor of Caldwell, we’ll see Allisha Gray shift back to defending Mabrey. Typically Canada takes on POA defense, but unsure if they throw her in that role immediately rather than Sheldon. All 4 of the starting non-Mabrey defenders notched 7+ rebounds for ATL in the prior meeting.
– Tina Charles with a disasterclass, shooting 5-20 with 17 of those shots coming inside the paint. This box score is actually a poor indicator of her actual shot quality, as a ton of these looks were in-and-out.

Griner played just 15 minutes last game, as she checked out in the opening minute of the 2H then never returned. Was on the bench full time, and ATL outscored SEA by 18 points to fuel their comeback win. Smesko noted (on 5/31), “We knew we were not going to get too many minutes for BG, because she had very limited practice, but we know she’s a big part of what we’re doing here. Once we get a few more practices under our belt, I’m sure she’ll get back to what she was doing before her injury”.

Centers have had their way with Connecticut:
– Iriafen 31 PR, A’ja 32 PR, Collier 44 PR, Boston 22 PR (8 A), Jonquel 24 PR

The Wings vs The Sparks could be offensive fireworks, as both these defenses rank in the bottom-third. Each teams’ key defensive weaknesses:
– Sparks: OPP 3PA (12th), 2nd Chance Pts (12th), OPP Stocks (12th)
– Wings: OPP APG (13th), Fastbreak Pts (11th), Midrange (13th)

Hamby, who notched 8, 8 and 6 assists in her three games entering Mercury, ended with just 2 against PHX. The Mercury have been a solid team at limiting PnR success, are are ranking in the Top 3 at limiting potential assists to opposing Centers. Meanwhile, DAL brings good inside pressure, which has left opposing frontcourt players (in the PnR) to notch solid numbers: Magbegor 5, Angel 5 and Collier 3.5.

Arike shot 23.5 FGA per game vs LA last season, yet she has been shooting DAL out of games a lot more than keeping them in them this season. Meanwhile, DiJonai Carrington decided this team is her’s. She shot 21 times vs Seattle, leading the team in USG rate at 23.3%. Dallas lost this game vs Seattle despite outshooting them by 24 shots.

Down to 2. The Thunder were expected to be here despite their young age, as they boasted the best NETRTG in the league at 12.7 – the only team to boast double digits in that category. The Pacers were the risers, being just 13th in NETRTG on the regular season yet rising to be the best offense in the playoffs thus far.

OKC’s defense has had a soft point though: the corner 3. The Thunder have surrendered 11.5 Corner 3PA this postseason (most), making up 30% of the total 3PA they allow. The Pacers are equipped to beat this, as they have shot a league-high 46.9% off Corner 3s in the playoffs. While all 9 of the Pacers’ rotational squad have shot >37% from this zone (insanity), the leaders of this group are:
– Aaron Nesmith, 1.1/2.2 (48.6%)
– Ben Shepard, 0.5/1.2 (37.5%)

Here is how each team’s highest Freq% corner shooter performed vs OKC this year:
– MEM: Aldama 6 3PA/gp (2 Corner)
– DEN: Westbrook 4.6 3PA/gp (2.7), Gordon 4.9 3PA/gp (1.6)
– MIN: McDaniels 5.2 3PA/gp (3), NAW 5.8 3PA/gp (3)

Nesmith, who will also be important defensively to defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is 17/20 on the year to 18+ PRA when he has 30+ minutes on the floor and 3+ 3PA.

Another key of the Thunder defense today will be Hartenstein, as the quick Indiana lineup doesn’t warrant the need for a double-big defense. OKC was 2-0 vs Indiana this season with IHart, yet the only game they won by double digits (21 Points) was when IHart played just 14 minutes due to an injury. Kenrich filled in for 27 minutes (No Holmgren), so they know that spacing can work.

Siakam produced 9.5 rebounds per game against this OKC squad. Indiana was coming off a matchup vs the Knicks who possessed a humongous offensive glass-cleaning unit in KAT & Mitchell Robinson; This matchup left both Siakam and Turner notching 6 or fewer rebounds in every game of the series. In turn, Haliburton averaged 7.5 RPG as he flies in to clear the box outs. Expect these two trends to flip this series.

Last of Indiana is Haliburton on offense. Averaged just 8.5 RA per game and that came with just 11.5 potentials against OKC this regular season – both of these marks being less than half of his average vs The Knicks. OKC being able to switch their defense up top means IND pressure has to come from inside or wings, another motive for Siakam.

OKC offense: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This may be the best game for his scoring, as the Indiana defense has shied away from double-coverage. This season already, 45 and 33 points for Shai vs IND. Expect Andrew Nembhard to be on Shai. Thought Nesmith like many others, but Nembhard has been the primary guy to slow him down with some help coming off the drives to mix different coverages at him. Overall, getting down the lane should be easy. 33.5 is a pretty fair line, but like his scoring in this matchup as always, 30+ points is a staple parlay leg.

In turn, Indiana’s defense has allowed them to rank Top 3 at limiting Catch-and-Shoot opportunities. This defense also has the ability to turn into offense quickly, as fastbreak makes up a consistent sixth of their total offensive production (Top 5).

Lu Dort has an interesting dilemma for this series. With Jalen Williams on Siakam, Dort would typically take Haliburton – yet OKC can elect to utilize faster perimeter defenders in Wallace and Caruso instead. However, Dort averaged nearly double his current PRA line against this team in the regular season, and despite how IND loves to run single coverage, you can’t expect pure isolation from SGA to be their defensive gameplan.

The Liberty are looking unbeatable, as the defending champs possess a legitimate 9-woman rotation. Already 7-0 on the year and 1-0 in the Commissioner’s Cup, they now have their second cup match vs Washington. Just a week ago, The Liberty beat The Mystics by 22 Points, being their 4th 20+ Pt victory this season as they boast the current highest NETRTG in WNBA history at 25.1.

Brondello, “It’s the Commissioner’s Cup, so we want to run the score up. We still want to play well [the whole game].”
Sabrina, “We want to come out and win every quarter. They’re going to play really hard

After playing 4 games in 6 days, The Liberty now have rested for 4 days before tonight’s contest.

Breanna Stewart has averaged just 4.4 RPG this season, which is just above half of her regular season average last season. She notched just 3 rebounds last game vs Washington despite The Liberty themselves notching a season-high 46 rebounds. While Stewie did defer some rebounds to Jones (18 Reb), her positioning off the paint-heavy Iriafen still should have produced more on the stat sheet. However, Brondello also benched Stewart in the 1H (12min) to favor more size in Kennedy Burke against the Mystics frontcourt of Austin, Dolson, Iriafen and Edwards.

The Mystics are tied with The Lynx in the fewest rebounds allowed per game. Still, 13/15 Forwards/Centers with 25+ minutes have snagged 5+ rebounds vs Washington. Brondello noted, “We know we can be better [at rebounding], it’s a focus of all players. Stewie can get in there a little bit more“

No team has surrendered more Corner 3PA than The Mystics, at 8.7 per game, which is over 30% more than the next worst team. As you could guess, Washington has let up the most OPP 3PA overall, rather focused on guarding the inside. NYL won by 23 while shooting 10-38 from deep despite being the league-leader in 3P% (38.3%). Jonquel, Stewart, Sabrina and Johannes went a combined 6-29.

Jonquel Jones averaging 19.5 PPG last season in games where she made 2 or more 3PT, including three games vs The Mystics (23.3 PPG). She had 14+ Pts in 17/18 games. Now, she has opened up the year with a 5% higher usage rate than in 2024.

Kiki Iriafen just won May’s Rookie of The Month award, averaging a double-double in the first month of her career! Will be interesting to note how head coach Sydney Johnson will manage her, as there is a load of young talent worth developing in that Mystics frontcourt.

Sykes with 20+ Pts in 6 of her 7 games this season, ranking 4th overall in PPG this season. What’s most impressive is her relentless attacking of the basket, which has left her ranking 3rd in % of the team’s fouls drawn (43.4%) – leading all guards by at least double digits. Tough spot today, facing an NYL defense that is 1st in OPP FTM allowed (11.9) and OPP PITP (27.4).

The Phoenix Mercury will remain without Alyssa Thomas for her fourth consecutive game as she deals with a calf injury. They have remained generally steadfast in her absence, yet not without adjustments to the offense. The Mercury have yet to see more than 2 days of rest between any of their games since the season started.

Thibbetts, on 23 point loss vs The Lynx last game, “We’ve got three new players trying to learn a system. Typically we are better at home. They’re a good team.”

The Valkyries, as an offense that loves to live-or-die by the three ball themselves (shoutout Joe Mazulla), have surrendered the 2nd most Corner 3PA and 4th most overall 3PA. PHX is Top 3 in 3PA per game; While their volume hasn’t decrease, The Mercury have made just 23.5% of their 3PA since Thomas got injured, which is 12% worse than their marks before.

Both of these squads are coming off losses to Minnesota, but I think The Valks remain underrated despite the 2-4 record. Nakasa is just locked in as a coach, “I will always tell my team to ‘let it fly’. If it’s not falling, then we have to get back on defense… We can’t have any errors defensively. This team has killer mentality”. The Valks have sold out each of their home games (18,000 seats!).

Hayes got back up to near 15 1H minutes vs Lynx, yet had to sub out immediately at the start of 2H after picking up her 4th foul. Upon returning with 8min left, took a shot to the nose (which is why she has been wearing a mask) and did not return. Questionable for today.

Burton has 30+ minutes played in each game without Hayes this season, while both her and Vanloo boast >30% assist rates with Hayes off the court. It is Salaun, the rookie from France’s national team, who has led in overall usage at 24.9%. Her and Leite, her french teammate, actually take both of the top two spots.

Mercury has a bit of a rebounding issue, practically in a three way tie for allowing the most OPP Reb this season. They have allowed 35 or more rebounds in each of their last 5 games. The Valks, who are 4th best at rebounding this season, have had three games where they notched 35+ themselves:
– 37 vs MIN (Salaun 6 Reb, Burton 5 Reb)
– 41 vs NYL (Salaun 13 Reb, Billings 7 Reb, Burton 6 Reb)
– 37 vs WSH (Burton 9 Reb, Fagbenle 7 Reb)

The Top 10 Rebounders vs PHX this season have all been Power Forwards or Centers, and they all notched 7+ rebounds.

The Commisioner’s Cup continues.

The Clark-less Fever team is looking really bad, now losing both of their games without her to Washington and Connecticut. Offensively it is just a turnover fest, producing 16 per game, only worse than the Sun team (who still beat them). Oddly enough, their Paint defense has suffered the most, now surrendering 40 PITP per game. Each IND opponent had a Guard/Big duo that dominated them:
– Sykes/Iriafen 37 Pts (30 FGA)
– Mabrey/Charles 44 Pts (33 FGA)
– Sabrina/Jonquel 49 Pts (35 FGA)
– Rhyne/Griner 41 Pts (30 FGA)

Despite how strong Iriafen’s rookie campaign has been, she still has to compete in minutes with the rest of WSH’s incredibly young (and talented) frontcourt – which possesses Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards. These two each had a strong offseason for Unrivaled, with Edwards almost winning the 1v1 tournament. With this duo healthy, Iriafen has yet to see over 25 minutes on the floor.

Citron and Sykes combined for 16 rebounds as The Mystics racked up 41 total. Indiana even tied The Sun in rebounds last game, despite Connecticut being the league’s worst rebounding team. 3 guards are dominating the Top 5 rebounding performances vs IND since Clark went out, which makes sense given their offense has to become more frontcourt dependent.

Fever’s offense has to depend on Kelsey Mitchell for their offense, though she has shot just 25% from the field in these two games (8/31). Most of Mitchell’s actions in the Mystics game came as a PnR Ball Handler or isolation looks, resulting in a lot of jump shots (9). While Mitchell is shifty in isolation, her greatest strength is her speed; Mitchell ended the CON game with 5 straight looks from off ball movement, so hoping that continues.

On the year when Clark is off the floor, it is Natasha Howard that leads the team in usage rate at 29.9%. She paces for 15 shots per 30 minutes, yet her minutes are unreliable given her turnovers and general lack of motivation. Played just 17 minutes against WSH, and The Fever don’t need a ton of size in this matchup.

While Alyssa Thomas remains out, Collier returns for Minnesota. The Lynx pulled out a narrow 3 Point victory over PHX without the two stars just a couple games ago. PHX has been the 2nd best 3PT-limiting defense, which left Alanna Smith and Courtney Williams to dominate the team’s FGA (33 of 69 total).

Despite Collier being in, Alanna is really undervalued at 8.5 Pts on sportsbooks. Last game against Golden State she shot just 1 time for Minnesota (#ally), yet today will be another rare instance where MIN will have better frontcourt size than their opponent. PHX has surrendered the 3rd most RPG in the league, including 38 to LAS in their most recent game.

Prior to AT’s injury, the rebounders that have thrived vs PHX were dominated by PFs:
– Azura 17 Reb
– Reese 15 Reb
– Iriafen 13 Reb
– Ogwumike 8 Reb
Post AT OUT:
– Shepard 10 Reb
– Hamby 10 Reb

Shifts now that they inserted a lower usage big and Satou Sabally is logging more on ball screens. Collier should defend Sabally.

The Wings will be without Bueckers again as she remains in concussion protocol. Bueckers has opened her WNBA career masterfully, as she joins Natasha Cloud as the only two players to be Top 10 in both Assists and AST/TOV ratio. Ty Harris also remains out for Dallas, leaving the team without a bonafide point guard. Dallas Wings w/ Ty Harris on the court:
Net Rating +4.85 | ORTG 101.40 | DRTG 96.55
Dallas Wings w/ Ty Harris off the court
Net Rating -23.65 | ORTG 92.74 | DRTG 116.38

However, Coach Koclanes turned to DiJonai Carrington to take on the facilitation load. Carrington notched 6 assists to Ogunbowale’s 2. Koclanes noted, “First game without Paige so we don’t have a true point guard, had a lot of different people bring the ball up… I mean DiJonai is initiating offense.”

Both Carrington and Ogunbowale notched 0 assists when they first met Seattle for their 2nd game of the season. This is even more shocking given that SEA loved throwing high traps on Bueckers last game, forcing the ball out of her hands, yet she still produced 8 assists. Expect this pressure to extend to Arike today.

Nneka with 18 rebounds in the last meeting, which is the highest regulation mark she has tallied since her rookie season in 2012. While a part of this success was from Magbegor dealing with foul issues in the opening half, she likely benefited the most from Myisha Hines-Allen being in foul trouble as well. Given MHA is so utilized in high action DHO, it typically makes her defenders see a slight dip in rebounding production. Regardless, DAL’s offense has struggled enough to surrender the 2nd most OPP RPG on the season. Bigs vs DAL (>25min):
– Shepard 8
– Ezi 8 / Nneka 18,
– Collier 8
– Griner 8 / Jones 15
– Cardoso 8 / Reese 9

Welcome to the first day of Commissioner Cup games – so each one of these games holds a bit more importance. The two teams from each conference with the best record in their cup games gets to play in the in-season championship, where players can split a prize pool of $500,000. Point differential matters in Cup, so expect player’s minutes to be less impacted by blowouts.

The Sun picked up their first win against a shorthanded Fever team two days ago, and now look for another against the 6-0 Liberty. The coolest aspect of this game is the battle between two MVP Centers in Tina Charles and Jonquel Jones. While both of these centers won their MVP on Connecticut, Charles produced her best seasons on the Liberty as she built up three-level scoring. Good motivations in this duel.

Charles has been incredibly unmotivated as a rebounder, producing a career-low 5.8 RPG and warranting a season-low 6.0 rebound line. There may still be merit to this line, as she notched 6+ rebounds in all 6 matchups vs Jonquel last season, along with 84% of games overall when she saw over 25 minutes of action. Starting Centers vs Liberty:
– Boston 13 Reb
– A’ja 16 Reb
– Cardoso 4
– Fagbenle 3, 5
– Dolson 4

Doing a pretty solid job at limiting. Given The Liberty are one of the most 3PT-dependant offenses in the league (31.8 3PG, 2nd), the rebounds they do allow is mostly to opposing backcourts. Mabrey has 9+ RA in all 5 of her games vs NYL, averaging 12.4 per game.

Cloud garnered Eastern Conference POTW in the opening week, Cloud averaged 18.7 points, 7.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. However, her last three games has generated just 4 PPG. May not be time for caution, as her matchups in those games of Golden State and Washington both love to apply high pressure on guards to limit driving. Inversely, CON has surrendered the 3rd most PPG to Guards, joining Chicago and Aces, two teams that Cloud faced during that opening week.

Cloud has a 20.6% usage rate in her 4 games where she played >25 minutes. 10/11 guards with >25 minutes have notched double-digit points vs CON, while the only miss (Sug Sutton) has just a 12% usage rate on the year.

The Seattle vs Aces rematch is going to be passionate, not only given the Commissioner’s Cup but also due to Seattle scoring over 100 points in their 20 Pt victory over LVA just a week ago. Aces actually won that 2H, but The Storm’s 58 1H Points – the most of any team this season – was too much to overcome.

Aces attempted to use A’ja Wilson as a nail passing operator, yet after her 4 1Q assists, she failed to notch another for the rest of the game. SEA would frequently bring 3+ bodies on her, collapsing immediately.
Hammon: “When we’re ice cold, that defense just continues to load up around her and make life difficult.”

Chelsea Gray has produced just 3.4 APG in her near 30 minutes of action, which less than half of her production in the last season Aces won a title (2023). However, Gray’s passing volume actually hasn’t decreased all that much, if any. Against SEA she logged 14 potential assists, and vs The Sparks notched 17. Only 7 of those 17 were to 3PT looks, but her teammates missed some easy inside looks to post up another low mark.

Ezi Magbegor was a point of emphasis for the SEA offense very early on, attacking The Aces in the Pick-and-Roll. This is the right call, as The Aces rank 13th at limiting Roll Woman points, 12th against Post Ups and 13th in Paint defense. Magbegor has averaged a double-double against Las Vegas since the start of last season, defending Kiah Stokes.

Diggins-Smith thus had 16 potential assists against the weak Aces interior. When she has notched 15 or more potentials this season, she has notched 10.3 APG with 8+ in all three. This has gone hand-in-hand with Nneka Ogwumike’s success, who has notched 20+ Pts herself in all three of those games.

Still no Alyssa Thomas for PHX nor Rickea Jackson for LAS, yet only AT played in these team’s first meeting a week ago. AT being out does change PHX’s offense a ton, who previously thrived on off-ball screens. Now, Satou Sabally is being used more directly on-ball. 16 on-ball picks set by Sabally last game was her most this season, accounting for 30% of her total picks set.

Satou remains the league’s leader in usage this season.

Sami Whitcomb has made just 5 of her 27 3PA across the last 5 games. However, her minutes are likely to remain consistent given her ability as a passer to set up Sabally.

With Westbeld in the starting lineup, the Mercury remain a very undersized frontcourt. Typically, the cost of a smaller team is allowing rebounds, which remains true for PHX, who rank 9th. The rebounders who have thrived vs PHX specifically have been the PFs:
– Ogwumike 8 Reb
– Azura 17 Reb
– Reese 15 Reb
– Iriafen 13 Reb

First game without AT left Shepard as the dominant rebounder, notching 10 for Minnesota with Collier inactive.

Expecting Collier to be good to go here for Minnesota given the stakes of the game, but her leash is likely to be short in a blowout scenario. Granted, The Valks have been playing pretty great defense, though are the worst defense at limiting Pts off TOV and in transition.

Carleton leads starters in %PTS coming from fastbreak.

Hayes (nose) did return last game, yet played just 13 minutes for GSV off the bench.

Liberty are on the second leg of their back-to-back, barely edging out the Valks by just 5 points. Brondello in the post game gave props to Golden State’s effort, “We didn’t get into the paint at all, we just couldn’t get by anybody.” They were shorthanded Jonquel Jones, who was nursing a hamstring injury. Would expect her to suit up today, as here was Brondello in the pregame, “JJ felt some discomfort, so we’re gonna sit her tonight. I’ve been mindful of not overloading them. It’s early. We’re building up our conditioning… but we need to win, we want to win. We don’t want to lose a game we know we’re capable of winning.”

Jonquel is pacing for near similar production as her MVP season with Connecticut, as Cloud is really looking to find her. In the three games Jonquel has played 24+ minutes in, she has had a 25% usage rate in those games, and her season high in usage last season was 26.7%. In 2024, Jonquel was 18/20 to 14+ Pts when she saw >20% usage and >25 min.

The Mystics allow the fewest PITP, but a main cause of this is their high pressure on guards to limit them from going downhill. Meanwhile opposing PF/Cs have still shown great production:
– Jones 16 Pts (5 Ast) / Griner 18 Pts
– Charles 23 Pts (2 Ast) / ONO 18 Pts
– Boston 10 Pts (4 Ast)
– A’ja 15 Pts (5 Ast)

Noting assists here as WSH likes to choke in to help on post ups, which has left Centers to also produce high-quality assist looks to cutters. Jonquel to Stewart – who drew 16 fouls last night – could be a key connection for Liberty today.

The Liberty, The Fever and The Sun are in a 3-way tie for allowing the most OPP RPG this season at 38.2. Wilson, Boston and Reese have each thrown up 12+ rebounds against NYL, yet 5 of Reese’s rebounds came off her own “mebounds” in one possession; Given NYL was the league’s 2nd best rebounding unit in 2024, still skeptical on this early-season ranking.

The Sun are the only team who have yet to notch a win this season, with 3 of their 5 losses also being by over 20 points. However, facing an Indiana team without Caitlin Clark (quad, 2 weeks) provides an opportunity for a competitive game. This shorthanded Fever team just lost to Washington by 6 points, who notched 48 PITP.

Important to monitor the status of Marina Mabrey, who is questionable today with her own quadriceps injury (right leg). This is different from the right calf injury that kept her out of a long-stretch of Unrivaled, though same leg could be correlated. She is one of 4 players that are listed as questionable on Connecticut’s injury report tonight.

The Sun are pretty similar to Washington in %PTS coming in the paint, with 41.8% compared to The Mystics 43.8%. Expect another dominant performance from Tina Charles, who notched 27 points vs DAL, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa – whose minutes seem more secure for 28+ upside in a close game environment.

The Fever team also got pounded on the glass, as we mentioned earlier that they are part of the 3 teams who have surrendered the most OPP Reb. Mystics came up last game with 41 Rebounds, with their leaders being Sykes with 9, Citron with 7 and Iriafen with 8.

Natasha Howard was probably the most productive Fever player in the 1H, boasting a 52% usage off of 10 FGA and 5 rebounds. However, after a 5 minute 3rd quarter rotation, she never returned to the floor. White noted, “Stepping away from our dribble handoffs… settling for DHO. Making it a point of contention to get Boston more touches. Who can we have on the floor that play well together?“. Nothing directly on Howard; the common conclusion has been to attribute the lack of minutes to her 5 turnovers.

Of the 15 players to play >20 minutes and notch a >20% usage vs CON this season, 13/15 had at least 18 PR, while all 5 PF/Cs did. Those 5 bigs (Phee, Iriafen, A’ja, Coffey, Shepard) averaged 31 PR and 45.18 FP (low of 27.2).

The Lynx face a PHX team who is strikingly similar in archetype, possessing a smaller frontcourt that can compensate defensively with strong lateral movement and active hands. These two teams are both Top 3 at generating turnovers. Typically, the cost of a smaller team is allowing rebounds, which was certainly true for MIN last season (8th); This season, MIN is allowing the fewest OPP RPG (welcome back Jessica Shepard!), while PHX is 9th.

The rebounders who have thrived vs PHX specifically have been the PFs:
– Azura 17 Reb
– Reese 15 Reb
– Iriafen 13 Reb
– Ogwumike 8 Reb

Granted, all Centers have posted 8+ themselves, but AT running all facilitation for PHX does bring some gravity. Alanna Smith in for a big day on the glass.

Collier is questionable with a knee injury, which hasn’t costed her any actual gametime thus far. This season, no duo in the league has ran more Pick-and-Roll reps than Williams and Collier. Thus, when Collier is off the court, the MIN gameplan doesn’t change, rather substituting Shepard in. Shepard not only leads the squad in USG% (26.3) without Phee, but also in AST% (50) in her 19 minutes without Collier this season. Be mindful that McBride was also out for all of these minutes. Last season it was all Courtney Williams, with a 40.6% assist rate (team high).

Alanna leads the team in TREB% at 27.3, hauling in 6 rebounds in her 12 minutes of this sample. Off last season is averaging 6.1 Reb per 25min.

Alyssa Thomas has a ton of experience vs this Minnesota squad, facing them 8 times last season, with 5 of them coming in the postseason. She notched 8+ rebounds in 6/8 of those meetings. While MIN has allowed three Centers to notch 10 rebounds, they have surrendered 8 or fewer rebounds to all other positions. Satou is at 7.5.

Sami Whitcomb has shot sub 15% from the field in 3 of her last 4 contests, warranting a benching last game vs Chicago.

The Aces continue to look mortal after their back-to-back championships; Their last game was a 4 days ago against Seattle, where they got completely dominated in a 20 point loss. The Aces have surrendered the most OPP PITP this season at 41.5, which bodes well for the LAS frontcourt of Hamby and Stevens.

We’ll start with Dearica, who is facing her former team. In 4 games vs Las Vegas last season, Hamby notched 22 PPG, 11 RPG, 2.8 APG and 2.3 Steals. Now, her facilitation game has grown even further. After back-to-back 8 Assist Games, she now has 9+ potentials in 4 of her last 5 games.

Can’t forget Plum’s homecoming, who just was traded to Sparks in the offseason as Aces pursued Jewell Loyd.

Azura has been in blossom too, seeing 12+ FGA in every game except not against Golden State. Shot a rough 4/14 last game against ATL but was 7/12 twice and 10/14 in the 3 covers this season.

The Sparks have been a Top 3 rebounding unit. They only really surrender rebounds to frontcourtKelsey Plum with Paopao back in the lineup. She defended Bueckers last game with this lineup. Plum defenders:
– Samuelson 1 Reb
– Atkins 2 Reb
– Burton 2 Reb (Vanloo 0)
– Akoa Makani 2 Reb
– Gray 5 Reb (1 in final 3Q)

Jackie should defend Plum here.

A’ja needs to have a good game soon, as Aces have had two double-digit losses and just one win by 5+ points. Tonight is the night, as Wilson has gone for 30+ Points in 3 straight meetings vs LA along with 6+ stocks in all three of those games.

Chelsea Gray gets to benefit. Now has 4 straight games with 11+ potentials (14 last game), despite logging 25 or fewer minutes in 2 of those games due to blowouts. Since 2017, Chelsea Gray has never had 4 straight games of under 5 assists.

Griner is back for ATL today after missing the last two contests with a knee issue. She is the team leader in usage rate at 23.7%. While ATL has been a staunchly rebounding team due to their frontcourt size, they actually are 11th in OPP PITP. They have allowed shockingly high Post Up Pts (11th), likely due to them showing no help to opposing Post Up attempts. However, they also get burned in the Pick and Roll, allowing the most OPP Pts to Ball Handlers and 3rd most to the Roll Woman.

The Fever are down Caitlin Clark for the next 2 weeks, which also propelled Napheesa Collier to being a solid MVP favorite (-210). Sydney Colson is slated to start in the meantime.

Funnily enough, Colson started a preseason game against the Mystics without Clark. She played alongside Bonner, Howard, Mitchell and Boston. In the 1H, the potential assists of the Fever team were distributed as so:
(10min) – Colson 7 (2 off inbound)
(14min) – Cunningham 5
(14) – Howard 4
(10) – Boston 3
(12) – Hull 2
(15) – Kelsey 1

Colson with some absurd passing volume. Expect a ton of handoff action for Indiana’s offense, which already is a great way to play Mystics who love to pressure guards high. Kelsey Mitchell thrives off the handoff game, which leaves her with the lowest potentials while receiving the most.

This holds true, as with Clark off the court and with Boston/Mitchell on since start of 2024 season, Mitchell is 2nd to last of this group in AST% at 11%. Hull is 6.3%. Meanwhile, Cunningham leads this unit at 28.6%, yet that is just in 13 minutes this season.

Mitchell does however lead in overall usage at 33.3%, with 19 shots per 30 minutes. The Mystics have surrendered the most OPP 3PA in the league, with Mabrey, Rhyne, Allisha and Chelsea all notching 8+ 3PA.

Shakira Austin (concussion) is “fully expected” to suit up for Washington after a full practice Tuesday, though Sydney Johnson also noted that he wanted to be “really cautious, but she looked sharp at practice”. Shakira has gotten ejected and then concussed in her two games, so we don’t fully know what her full rotation even would be.

Shouldn’t affect Kiki Iriafen, who seems set to continue with 30 minutes per game. Iriafen is facing an IND team that has surrendered the 2nd most OPP RPG, which has included success to opposing bigs:
– Reese 17
– Brionna Jones 12
– Jonquel 12

Jonquel was the only one on that list to primarily guard Aliyah Boston, which Dolson will do today for Mystics.

Indiana’s true defensive weakness has been their perimeter defense, carrying over from last year. They allowed the 2nd most OPP 3PA last season at 25.5, which increased to 28.3 this season (ranking 9th). This damage is stemmed from allowing the most Above-The-Break 3PA, yet when pairing this with IND allowing the 2nd fewest assists, we can assume it’s from self-created looks.

Each team’s top ATB shooter compared to their volume vs IND:
– Nurse 6 3PA (20min), Banham 6 3PA (19min)
– Rhyne 13 3PA, Allisha 10 3PA
– Rhyne 7 3PA, Allisha 5 3PA
– Sabrina 8 3PA

Melbourne leads WSH in this department.

Both The Wings and The Sun have opened the new season 0-4, yet their causes for losing have differed. One thing we know is that offenses can become ignited in these types of matchups.

Meziane after his most recent loss: “I usually say something positive about my team, but right now it’s hard. A lot of things to correct. Our defense was terrible today… terrible, terrible.”

The Wings last season posted the fastest PACE in the league, and remain Top 5 to kick off this season – though that can more be attributed to other squads playing faster, rather than DAL slowing down. However, DAL’s speed has not been paired with a disciplined paint defense, as they allow the most fastbreak points this season. You may not guess it, but Tina Charles is the Sun’s leader in percentage of points from fastbreak. Charles is coming off a 5-20 shooting night, and we have yet to see a player shoot 15 or more times and fail to crack 20 points vs DAL.

Meziane: “Tina, she wasn’t good, missed a lot of layups. In general how we played as a team today… was the wrong way. We don’t have superstar players, everytime we play 1-1 we cannot be efficient, so why? To answer your question… no, we do not have offensive players“

No holding back on the former MVP nor Marina Mabrey, who was expected to lead this team in scoring output in 2025. Whether Meziane’s words fuel her or not, Mabrey also gets to pull motivation tonight as she faces her old squad. Mabrey averaged just under 15 shots per game vs DAL last season,

Saniya Rivers and Olivia Nelson-Ododa make up two of the most exciting pieces of CON’s young core. With just 23 MPJ, Nelson-Ododa is leading the team in Player Impact Estimate at 16.5. However, her minutes remain shockingly inconsistent. Posted up 28 minutes against Minnesota, to which she saw just 7 1H minutes the following game.

CON Defense has been porous at the rim, where the 2nd most FGM per game, behind only Las Vegas. This may not be a big issue from them today, as DAL’s frontcourt has yet to feature consistent scoring pieces.

Paige Bueckers still trying to do all she can for this team.

1. We kick off the slate in Minnesota, where they host the Sun. Connecticut began a full rebuild this offseason as they traded off their entire starting lineup, and has thus opened the year 0-2. They were down 32 points entering the 4th quarter vs Las Vegas.

They surrendered 11 to Jackie Young in the opening quarter, than Loyd hit them with 14 in the 2nd.

2. The Sun struggle against guards is becoming a trend to kick off the season, as their backcourt trio of Mabrey, Allen and Sheldon are fairly undersized. Screening action has worked well against them. No duo in the league has ran the Pick-and-Roll more than Courtney Williams and Napheesa Collier this season.

Expect Courtney Williams to thrive today against her former team as Minnesota looks to remain undefeated. Per 28min, all 5 of Sykes, Citron, Young, Gray and Loyd covered this point mark.

3. Alanna Smith back to full minutes after returning from an offseason of rehab for her back and leg. Got up from 17 minutes to 28 minutes last game. As McBride remains away from the team, the Lynx usage is dominated by Smith, Williams, and Collier; This trio each has >23% USG and a >27.5 FGA% as they command shot volume.

Alanna already has 5+ Reb in 15/20 home games with 25+ minutes, but CON has also surrendered the most Center rebounds in the league. Iriafen hauled in 14 rebounds, Engstler even had 5 in 11min, while Stokes/A’ja combined for 17.

4. CON does have a path to victory today, as MIN’s issue has always been their lack of size inside. While their discipline on help defense has practically disguised this problem, CON does have a strong frontcourt of Charles & Nelson-Ododa. A similar team in LA, The Sparks, saw two 20+ Pt performances from their frontcourt duo of Hamby and Stevens.

Blowout feels a bit too priced into Charles 7.5 Rebs. ONO on Collier lets Charles roam off Alanna. 25/34 with 26+ minutes, a number she still hit despite the massive blowout suffered by LV.

5. Saniya Rivers made her debut, the first round pick from NC State. She just rejoined the team as her mother passed away shortly after the draft, so missed out on preseason and opening night. Played 16 minutes in the 2H.

Saniya is a dawg. Stands 6’1″, can defend any of the 1-3 while being a tremendous athlete on both ends of the floor. 11 Pts and 3 STL+BLK in her 25 total minutes. She noted this in postgame:
“Tina was checking in on me every day. She didn’t have to, you know? ‘How are you, you need anything’… Losing my mom was the toughest thing I’ve ever faced in my life. I came out here to play for her.”

“I took advantage of the time that I did have, just leaned on my teammates. Instilled a lot of confidence in me… I think I know I am good hands and I’m loved by a program that will care for me… Love, trust, we’re going to get this turned around for sure.”

Had me crying in the postgame. I’m all in on Rivers.

6. In turn, it’s hard to back Marina Mabrey. Requested a trade in the offseason, which was denied, and seems pretty mentally checked-out of the team. Meziane on The Suns starting backcourt combining for 7 points in Wednesday’s loss:
“I think Jacy hesitates too much tonight. I don’t know why, maybe too nervous? Every game has every opportunity to learn from my players… Marina is still searching for her role on the team. I am still optimistic she will help us more.”

7. Satou Sabally is currently the league’s leader in usage rate at 36.7%. This usage does not stem from passing however, as the Mercury and Nate Tibbetts has made an effort to get her active as much as possible off-ball. Tibbetts noted, “Our front office has done great at putting shooting around our players. We’re trying to evolve [to improve dynamic spacing].”

This team is looking like a coaching masterpiece. Expect a different scheme every game.

8. As we know, these The Storm and The Mercury met opening night, where PHX won by 22 points. The Storm last season were the league’s worst 3PT offense, which is still not an aspect they improved upon with their acquisitions. Rather, this offense is meant to thrive as an extension of their defense while being a constant onslaught at the Rim. However, this offense in the halfcourt was lacking active cuts, they never found a rhythm.

Only SDS and Ogwumike scored double-digit points for SEA, with Ogwumike barely crossing due to foul issues. Ogwumike noted, “I think we all saw. It’s obvious. Takes me out of flow. Takes my team out of flow. I need to be more disciplined. It’s not something that can happen.“

9. Noelle Quinn noted after that game that she “needed more from Ezi [Magbegor] and Gabby [Williams]”. Like a sleeper agent, Gabby Williams awoke the next game, producing 17 Pts, 5 Rebounds, 5 Assists and 5 STL+BLKs for 41.5 Fantasy Points.

Ezi Magbegor is still looking for a strong performance, dealing with foul issues last game.

10. Alyssa Thomas‘ 20 Pts vs SEA was just her third 20 Pt game in the last 2 seasons, and most of her buckets felt as if she was just walking down the lane. She has a huge strength advantage over Magbegor, which is enough to win on her downhill drives despite Ezi’s length.

With Ogwumike ideally not dealing with foul issues this game, SEA can bring more size with her and Clark on that PHX 2-woman game. Ezi will be left off block as help rim protection.

11. Kelsey Plum with a very consistent 15 potentials each game to kick off the Sparks’ season. She entered this year noting that she “plans to definitely be in the top 5 in assists this year… I made the Olympic team as a point guard, I think some people forget that”.

She notched 6 assists alongside 37 Points and 5 steals vs Valkyries in their home opener.

12. The Valkyries surrendered 16 steals to The Sparks in their opening game off 20 total turnovers, yet then The Mystics only had 6 steals against them in their second game. This is a massive improvement in ball security, as The Mystics also lead the league in pressure rate, so that wasn’t an easy matchup.

Part of this success came from Veronica Burton, who stepped up to run point for this team as Hayes (nose) went down and remains out today. She generated 22 Points, 9 Rebounds and 5 assists. Carla Leite got in the mix too, as Martin/Vanloo combined for just 22 minutes.

Nakasa, on rotations, “[Veronica] was the one who showed up early to camp, so credit to her hardwork“

13. The Sparks have had a problem containing inside action, which isn’t shocking for a team that allowed the 2nd most PITP in 2024 and made no changes to their frontcourt. They are one of just three defenses that allow Top 4 Pts to both Forwards and Centers this season, joining Seattle and Chicago.

Fagbenle and Thornton have the most reliable minutes, while each also building upon their usage rates from first game.

14. The Mystics continue to be a leak to opposing frontcourts. A key reason for this is the pure pressure that they bring to opposing backcourts, forcing them to give up the ball. In three games we saw:
ATL: Griner 18-8 (16 FGA), Brionna 16-10 (13)
CON: Charles 23-10 (15), Ododa 18-8 (8)
GSV: Thornton 18-5 (14)

A’ja Wilson looks to put up another big performance today. No Mystics game has ended with a MOV of more than 5 points thus far.

15. Chelsea Gray should be the primary passer here. She threw up 14 potentials vs the No.1 NYL defense in their opener, then paced for 15.7 per 30min in the game following.

Overall is converting just 32% of her potentials this year, which is due to heavily improve.

16. Man, how good is Brittney Sykes? Sitting at a 31.1% USG on the year, which bumps up to near 40% when we enter the final quarter. This has been from pure effort too, as no other player has drawn as many fouls as she has thus far. Now, she faces a Las Vegas defense that has surrendered the most Paint Pts per game this season – though a majority of that was due to the beatdown that NYL game them in their opener.