1. We kick off the slate in Minnesota, where they host the Sun. Connecticut began a full rebuild this offseason as they traded off their entire starting lineup, and has thus opened the year 0-2. They were down 32 points entering the 4th quarter vs Las Vegas.
They surrendered 11 to Jackie Young in the opening quarter, than Loyd hit them with 14 in the 2nd.
2. The Sun struggle against guards is becoming a trend to kick off the season, as their backcourt trio of Mabrey, Allen and Sheldon are fairly undersized. Screening action has worked well against them. No duo in the league has ran the Pick-and-Roll more than Courtney Williams and Napheesa Collier this season.
Expect Courtney Williams to thrive today against her former team as Minnesota looks to remain undefeated. Per 28min, all 5 of Sykes, Citron, Young, Gray and Loyd covered this point mark.
3. Alanna Smith back to full minutes after returning from an offseason of rehab for her back and leg. Got up from 17 minutes to 28 minutes last game. As McBride remains away from the team, the Lynx usage is dominated by Smith, Williams, and Collier; This trio each has >23% USG and a >27.5 FGA% as they command shot volume.
Alanna already has 5+ Reb in 15/20 home games with 25+ minutes, but CON has also surrendered the most Center rebounds in the league. Iriafen hauled in 14 rebounds, Engstler even had 5 in 11min, while Stokes/A’ja combined for 17.
4. CON does have a path to victory today, as MIN’s issue has always been their lack of size inside. While their discipline on help defense has practically disguised this problem, CON does have a strong frontcourt of Charles & Nelson-Ododa. A similar team in LA, The Sparks, saw two 20+ Pt performances from their frontcourt duo of Hamby and Stevens.
Blowout feels a bit too priced into Charles 7.5 Rebs. ONO on Collier lets Charles roam off Alanna. 25/34 with 26+ minutes, a number she still hit despite the massive blowout suffered by LV.
5. Saniya Rivers made her debut, the first round pick from NC State. She just rejoined the team as her mother passed away shortly after the draft, so missed out on preseason and opening night. Played 16 minutes in the 2H.
Saniya is a dawg. Stands 6’1″, can defend any of the 1-3 while being a tremendous athlete on both ends of the floor. 11 Pts and 3 STL+BLK in her 25 total minutes. She noted this in postgame:
“Tina was checking in on me every day. She didn’t have to, you know? ‘How are you, you need anything’… Losing my mom was the toughest thing I’ve ever faced in my life. I came out here to play for her.”
“I took advantage of the time that I did have, just leaned on my teammates. Instilled a lot of confidence in me… I think I know I am good hands and I’m loved by a program that will care for me… Love, trust, we’re going to get this turned around for sure.”
Had me crying in the postgame. I’m all in on Rivers.
6. In turn, it’s hard to back Marina Mabrey. Requested a trade in the offseason, which was denied, and seems pretty mentally checked-out of the team. Meziane on The Suns starting backcourt combining for 7 points in Wednesday’s loss:
“I think Jacy hesitates too much tonight. I don’t know why, maybe too nervous? Every game has every opportunity to learn from my players… Marina is still searching for her role on the team. I am still optimistic she will help us more.”
7. Satou Sabally is currently the league’s leader in usage rate at 36.7%. This usage does not stem from passing however, as the Mercury and Nate Tibbetts has made an effort to get her active as much as possible off-ball. Tibbetts noted, “Our front office has done great at putting shooting around our players. We’re trying to evolve [to improve dynamic spacing].”
This team is looking like a coaching masterpiece. Expect a different scheme every game.
8. As we know, these The Storm and The Mercury met opening night, where PHX won by 22 points. The Storm last season were the league’s worst 3PT offense, which is still not an aspect they improved upon with their acquisitions. Rather, this offense is meant to thrive as an extension of their defense while being a constant onslaught at the Rim. However, this offense in the halfcourt was lacking active cuts, they never found a rhythm.
Only SDS and Ogwumike scored double-digit points for SEA, with Ogwumike barely crossing due to foul issues. Ogwumike noted, “I think we all saw. It’s obvious. Takes me out of flow. Takes my team out of flow. I need to be more disciplined. It’s not something that can happen.“
9. Noelle Quinn noted after that game that she “needed more from Ezi [Magbegor] and Gabby [Williams]”. Like a sleeper agent, Gabby Williams awoke the next game, producing 17 Pts, 5 Rebounds, 5 Assists and 5 STL+BLKs for 41.5 Fantasy Points.
Ezi Magbegor is still looking for a strong performance, dealing with foul issues last game.
10. Alyssa Thomas‘ 20 Pts vs SEA was just her third 20 Pt game in the last 2 seasons, and most of her buckets felt as if she was just walking down the lane. She has a huge strength advantage over Magbegor, which is enough to win on her downhill drives despite Ezi’s length.
With Ogwumike ideally not dealing with foul issues this game, SEA can bring more size with her and Clark on that PHX 2-woman game. Ezi will be left off block as help rim protection.
11. Kelsey Plum with a very consistent 15 potentials each game to kick off the Sparks’ season. She entered this year noting that she “plans to definitely be in the top 5 in assists this year… I made the Olympic team as a point guard, I think some people forget that”.
She notched 6 assists alongside 37 Points and 5 steals vs Valkyries in their home opener.
12. The Valkyries surrendered 16 steals to The Sparks in their opening game off 20 total turnovers, yet then The Mystics only had 6 steals against them in their second game. This is a massive improvement in ball security, as The Mystics also lead the league in pressure rate, so that wasn’t an easy matchup.
Part of this success came from Veronica Burton, who stepped up to run point for this team as Hayes (nose) went down and remains out today. She generated 22 Points, 9 Rebounds and 5 assists. Carla Leite got in the mix too, as Martin/Vanloo combined for just 22 minutes.
Nakasa, on rotations, “[Veronica] was the one who showed up early to camp, so credit to her hardwork“
13. The Sparks have had a problem containing inside action, which isn’t shocking for a team that allowed the 2nd most PITP in 2024 and made no changes to their frontcourt. They are one of just three defenses that allow Top 4 Pts to both Forwards and Centers this season, joining Seattle and Chicago.
Fagbenle and Thornton have the most reliable minutes, while each also building upon their usage rates from first game.
14. The Mystics continue to be a leak to opposing frontcourts. A key reason for this is the pure pressure that they bring to opposing backcourts, forcing them to give up the ball. In three games we saw:
ATL: Griner 18-8 (16 FGA), Brionna 16-10 (13)
CON: Charles 23-10 (15), Ododa 18-8 (8)
GSV: Thornton 18-5 (14)
A’ja Wilson looks to put up another big performance today. No Mystics game has ended with a MOV of more than 5 points thus far.
15. Chelsea Gray should be the primary passer here. She threw up 14 potentials vs the No.1 NYL defense in their opener, then paced for 15.7 per 30min in the game following.
Overall is converting just 32% of her potentials this year, which is due to heavily improve.
16. Man, how good is Brittney Sykes? Sitting at a 31.1% USG on the year, which bumps up to near 40% when we enter the final quarter. This has been from pure effort too, as no other player has drawn as many fouls as she has thus far. Now, she faces a Las Vegas defense that has surrendered the most Paint Pts per game this season – though a majority of that was due to the beatdown that NYL game them in their opener.
