One of the most exhilarating weekends of the NFL season has arrived, filled with intriguing matchups and compelling storylines. The stakes are higher, the rivalries deeper, and the drama palpable. Let’s dive into two powerful betting angles and break down some key matchups!
Revenge Angle
There’s nothing sweeter than payback. Teams looking to avenge a double-digit loss earlier in a regular season matchup have historically performed well against the spread. These teams boast a 40-25-3 ATS record (61.5%) and games in this situation tend to trend toward the Over (43-25 O/U, 63.2%).
This revenge angle is live this week for the Steelers, Vikings, and Commanders as they seek redemption and a ticket to the next round.
Momentum Angle
Momentum is the lifeblood of playoff success, and road underdogs riding a wave of victory have been money against the spread. Since 2018, road underdogs off a win facing home favorites off a loss are 115-77-2 ATS (59.9%).
This angle points to the Broncos, who carry the momentum of their recent win into hostile territory.
Chargers @ Texans
Texans Trends:
6-11 Team Total O/U
6-11 O/U overall
13-4 1H ATS | 7-10 ATS full game
Chargers Trends:
13-3-1 1H ATS | 13-4 ATS overall
The Texans have leaned heavily on their defense all season, ranking 7th in Defensive DVOA. However, their offensive struggles have been glaring, with the team ranking 26th in yards per play and Offensive DVOA. C.J. Stroud, who dazzled as a rookie, has hit the proverbial sophomore slump, further hampered by the losses of key weapons Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.
Expect the Texans to adopt a run-heavy approach, but even that may not save them against a Chargers defense that excels at getting to the quarterback (4th in sack rate) while the Texans rank 30th in sacks allowed. This mismatch spells trouble for Houston.
Our favorite angle? Texans Team Total under 19.5. The Texans have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last five games, and this slugfest doesn’t seem like the spot for a breakout performance.
Pick: Texans Team Total Under 19.5 (+106, FanDuel)
(Lines are sporadic here. I wouldn’t play a heavily juiced Under 21.5, but if you can find a TT Under 20.5 or 19.5 at plus money, I would rock with those)
Steelers @ Ravens
Steelers Trends:
5-11-1 1H O/U
6-11 1H ATS | 11-6 full game ATS
Ravens Trends:
13-4 O/U overall
12-5 Team Total O/U
This matchup marks yet another chapter in one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries. Steelers vs. Ravens games have historically been gritty, hard-fought affairs dominated by elite defensive play. While the Ravens’ offense has shined this season, 12-5 Team Total Over, the history between these two teams tells a different story.
Prior to their most recent clash, Steelers/Ravens games had gone under in 8 consecutive meetings. This rivalry thrives on familiarity and physicality, and with both teams having faced off in Week 16, expect defensive adjustments and cautious play-calling early.
The Steelers, true to their DNA, have been slow out of the gates this season, as evidenced by their 5-11-1 1H O/U record. Conversely, the Ravens’ early-game offensive success may hit a snag against a Pittsburgh defense that knows them well.
This game feels like a classic AFC North slugfest: defenses dominating the first half, with offenses struggling to establish rhythm. With Pittsburgh’s 1H struggles and the historical under trends, a 1H Under 22.5 bet feels like the best play.
Welcome to the FIRST Money Baller Report for 2025! Thank you all for a wonderful 2024. We are thankful for your support and business and look forward to a successful 2025. We are working on developing some back-end tools aimed at increasing speed and performance, while bringing additional data and features.
We ended 2024 poorly, with a 1-4 on the featured trends from Friday’s report – let’s bounce back on today’s New Year slate!
Small sample size, but home teams are 9-2 ATS and 2-8-1 O/U in previous 2 seasons
Dating back to the 2013-2014 season, on New Years Day, road teams off a home win are 2-17 SU and 3-16 ATS. This is active to fade the Magic.
Magic @ Pistons
Magic:11-23 1H ATS
Baller System active to play on the Pistons: Conference home favorite with revenge
Situational Spots: Rest advantage and revenge favor the Pistons.
New Years Day angle shared above fading the Magic.
TMB Thoughts: We like the Pistons in this spot, but the best angle is Pistons 1H -1. The Pistons’ offense has been clicking in the last 10 days (10th in Offensive Rating) and we have no interest in playing them full game as the scrappy Magic have a tendency for 2nd half comebacks.
Bulls @ Wizards
1 Baller System favoring Wizards (fading team off OT win)
2 Baller Systems on the Over
TMB Thoughts: Situational angles point to the Wizards, but we don’t trust them enough. Passing on this one.
Pelicans @ Heat
Heat: 0-6 1H ATS and 1-5 full game ATS on the first game of a B2B
Heat: 1-5 1H Team Total O/U on first game of B2B
Heat: 1-5 1H Team Total O/U with more rest than opponent
Pelicans:3-12 ATS on the road
TMB Thoughts: The Heat 1H trends are interesting – I don’t think it’s enough to be actionable, especially with the Pelicans’ horrid defense. We’ll pass on it.
Nets @ Raptors
Nets: 21-11 1H ATS
Nets: 5-1 1H ATS on the first game of a B2B
Nets: 6-1 1H ATS with more rest than opponent
2 Baller Systems active on the Nets
TMB Thoughts: Trends point to Nets 1H, but they’ve shifted from favorites to underdogs. With D’Angelo Russell’s debut, this game feels unpredictable. We are passing, for now.
Mavericks @ Rockets
Rockets:10-22 1H O/U
Mavericks: Luka Doncic out
Mavericks: Travel fatigue (4th straight game on the road)
Rockets short-handed (Amen Thompson suspended)
TMB Thoughts: With both teams facing key absences and 2 Baller Systems favoring the under, the play is the under. We are playing the 1H Under 114.
Hawks @ Nuggets
Nuggets:20-11 O/U
Hawks:21-11-1 O/U
2 Baller Systems on the Over
TMB Thoughts: Two over-leaning teams and system plays point to Over 246.5. High total, but we trust the pace and defensive issues to push it over.
76ers @ Kings
Kings: 12-21 ATS (6-13 ATS at home)
Kings: 2-12 ATS as favorites of 2.5-7 points
76ers: 9-21 1H O/U
TMB Thoughts: Neither team has been trustworthy this season. We will sit this one out.
🎄 Welcome to the Christmas Edition of The Money Baller Report! 🎄
We hope you’re having a joyful holiday season filled with family, friends, and relaxation. As we wrap up the year, we want to express our gratitude for your continued support and trust. Your engagement and enthusiasm have made 2024 a fantastic year, and we look forward to bringing you even more success and prosperity in 2025.
Happy Holidays from all of us at The Money Baller – let’s close out the year strong!
Published: Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 8:30 AM CST
Baller System: Playoff rematch unders are in play.
TMB Thoughts: With playoff rematch trends favoring lower scores and the Texans have really struggled with their offense as of late, we’re playing the Under 47 here.
We have nothing meaningful on the Chiefs/Steelers game.
NBA: Spurs @ Knicks
Spurs: 10-18-1 1H ATS – Slow starts continue to plague San Antonio, struggling to cover early.
Knicks: 9-4 1H ATS as home favorites – Consistently strong out of the gate at Madison Square Garden.
TMB Thoughts: Knicks have been a reliable 1H team, and the Spurs’ trends suggest this continues. We like Knicks 1H -5 to take advantage of this early edge.
NBA: Timberwolves @ Mavericks
Mavericks: 1-11 O/U holding opponents’ team total as home favorites – Dallas locks down at home, keeping opposing scores low.
Timberwolves: 7-21 Team Total O/U – Minnesota has been unreliable offensively all season long.
TMB Thoughts: The numbers overwhelmingly point toward the Timberwolves struggling to hit their mark. We’re backing Timberwolves Team Total Under 108, expecting Dallas’ defense to dictate the pace.
NBA: 76ers @ Celtics
Sixers: 7-20 1H O/U | 9-21 Team Total O/U – Philadelphia trends heavily towards low-scoring starts and full-game team total unders.
TMB Thoughts: While the trends are clear, the line feels sharp. We’re not seeing enough value to confidently back any angle, so this is a stay-away for now.
NBA: Lakers @ Warriors
Warriors: 7-21 1H Team Total O/U – Golden State has struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games.
TMB Thoughts: Despite the trend, there’s not enough conviction to place a bet. We’re passing on this one.
NBA: Nuggets @ Suns
Nuggets: 1-7 ATS as road favorites – Denver has struggled to cover this season, especially as road favorites.
Suns: 9-19 ATS | 4-11 ATS at home – Phoenix has been consistently underperformed against market expectations, especially at home.
TMB Thoughts: We’re leaning Nuggets -2.5, with a Baller System active on the Nuggets and Devin Booker out for the Suns.
Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 15 Newsletter picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 25-19-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Titans: 2-12 ATS this season
Ravens: 11-3 O/U this season
Panthers: 10-3-1 1H O/U this season
Dolphins: 2-12 1H Team Total O/U this season
Texans: 12-2 1H ATS this season (but only 6-8 full game ATS)
Steelers: 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
Lions: 11-3 1H ATS this season
Bears: 4-10 1H ATS this season
Browns: 3-11 Team Total O/U this season
Bills: 12-2 Team Total O/U this season
Bengals: 10-4 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in L17 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
Not active this week or already passed:
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
Giants: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs
Broncos: 10-3-2 1H O/U
Chargers: 11-2-2 1H ATS this season
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 3-12 O/U this season.
Bears: 0-7 1H ATS on the road this season.
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
II. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring Trends and Week 15 Recap Scoring took another dip in Week 15, with games averaging 44.9 points per game (PPG). This marks a noticeable drop from the 47.3 PPG seen in Week 14, reinforcing the downward trajectory as the season heads into its final stretch. The median scoring also reflected this shift, landing at 43.5 points. The season-long scoring average remains at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 15 ended 7-8-1 O/U, showing a slightly under-leaning trend.
Season Trends and Outlook
Season-long totals record: 114-106-4 to the over.
Week 16 average total: 44.5, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.
While the over has held a slight edge throughout the season, recent weeks indicate a gradual shift toward lower-scoring games, aligning with historical late-season patterns.
Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders
Divisional Familiarity As teams meet for the second time in a season, defenses are more prepared for offensive schemes, limiting explosive plays. This often leads to more conservative play-calling and defensive adjustments, keeping scores in check.
Playoff Contenders Tightening Up With playoff spots at stake, contenders shift focus to minimizing mistakes. Strategies emphasize ball security and field position over aggressive, high-risk plays, which can naturally lead to lower-scoring affairs.
Weather Conditions December football in outdoor stadiums introduces unpredictable weather variables. Cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation can disrupt passing and kicking efficiency, forcing teams to lean on their run games and drain the clock.
Week 16 Takeaways The combination of reduced scoring and a slightly lower average total for Week 16 signals that oddsmakers are starting to price in these late-season dynamics. Nevertheless, this environment creates opportunities for sharp bettors to identify value, particularly in divisional matchups and games with playoff implications.
Staying ahead of market shifts and recognizing situational factors will be crucial for success in totals betting as the regular season winds down. Focus on weather reports, divisional rivalries, and teams in playoff contention to pinpoint the best under opportunities.
III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 53-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 9-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Lions (vs. Bears) in Week 16.
IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 162-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 11-5 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Broncos (fade the Chargers) in Week 16. (This lost on Thursday Night Football)
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 155-119-10 ATS. (6-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 46-31-4 ATS (59.7%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Bills -14 this week against the Patriots and Packers -14 against the Saints.
NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Game Breakdown: The Detroit Lions are in prime position for a bounce-back performance as they face the struggling Chicago Bears. The Bears are facing a challenging set of circumstances, coming off a short week after their Monday Night Football game and already looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football contest. This situational disadvantage is compounded by their return home after three consecutive road games, often a spot associated with letdown performances.
For the Lions, the injury report earlier in the week painted a concerning picture, but the reality has turned out to be less severe. While David Montgomery will sit this game out, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than ready to take on the primary rushing duties. On the other hand, the Bears continue to spiral downward, having lost eight straight games.
Historical Trends Favor the Lions: Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more who are coming off a loss as home favorites have delivered an impressive 53-22-4 ATS record.
Teams that unexpectedly lose at home as favorites often rebound with focused and dominant performances in their following game. Being listed as road favorites after such a loss indicates confidence from oddsmakers and suggests the potential for a commanding response.
Key Betting Trends:
Lions: 11-3 1H ATS (First Half Against the Spread)
Bears: 4-10 1H ATS
The Lions’ first-half dominance this season, coupled with the Bears’ struggles, makes this a strong play. Expect Detroit to come out aggressive and build an early lead against a weary Chicago team.
Pick:Lions 1H -3.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Two Baller Systems are active on the under for this matchup, highlighting favorable conditions for a low-scoring affair. One system triggers when the market total is substantially lower than average scoring trends, while the other activates for home underdogs who have a Thursday game ahead.
Geno Smith is likely to be less than 100% as he faces a stout Vikings defense (#2 in Defensive DVOA). Both teams are in challenging situational spots – the Vikings are coming off short rest after a Monday Night Football game and have key divisional matchups looming against the Packers and Lions. Similarly, the Seahawks have a Thursday Night Football game on the horizon.
Seattle has consistently hit the under when playing as home underdogs, posting a 4-1 record to the under in those situations. With two strong defensive teams squaring off and situational angles aligning, this game leans heavily towards a lower total.
Pick: Under 42.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
The Buccaneers have consistently exceeded expectations this season with a 10-4 ATS record. Baker Mayfield continues to lead the charge effectively, and the offense benefits from strong contributions by Bucky Irving, who is confirmed to be available for this matchup. With the Atlanta Falcons close behind in the divisional race, the Buccaneers must maintain their winning momentum.
Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in a less urgent position, as their season is effectively over. Cooper Rush steps in at quarterback, but there is little confidence in his ability to steer the team, especially following an outright win as underdogs. This creates a classic letdown scenario.
Key Betting Trends:
Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Expect Tampa Bay to continue their strong form and cover the spread against a Cowboys team with little left to play for.
