Author: Austin Wang

Hello everyone! Welcome to our ‘Free Preview’ day. For those new to the site, this is a daily article we provide to our premium Baller Access subscribers. Our team went 2-0 yesterday with the featured trends! Orioles F5 RL and the Mariners/Mets NRFI were a hit.

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends:

• Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts | Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
  • Several factors point to value on the Cubs moneyline (-120, ESPN Bet) tonight. Shota Imanaga has been solid this season with a 3.06 ERA. In contrast, Ben Lively has a 3.59 ERA but a concerning 4.75 FIP, suggesting he could be due for some negative regression. The Cubs are also backed by a strong Baller Matchup Rating of 6, and supported by an active Baller System that favors teams in the first game of a road, non-divisional series when on at least a two-game winning streak.

• Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts
• Rays: 4-12 O/U (1-8 O/U at home) when Taj Bradley starts.
  • The trends heavily favor the under in this matchup, with two solid pitchers on the mound. The table below highlights both pitchers’ stats over the last 30 days. Under 7.5 (-120, ESPN Bet) is the most favorable price we see out there.

• Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024
• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
  • Keep an eye on this game, as some books have been slow to release lines, suggesting there could be a pitching change. If that happens, the Baller Matchup Rating could change. If not, the surging Diamondbacks make a great parlay piece or run-line candidate.

• Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts | 20-10-3 F5 ML vs. LHP.
  • The Braves have been underwhelming lately, but with Chris Sale on the mound and their strong record against left-handed pitchers, we think they have a good chance to overcome the red-hot Blake Snell and the Giants. Braves F5 ML (-105, BetRivers) is a value play for today.

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians

• Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts.
• Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• Guardians: 25-9 ML vs. LHP.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

• Cardinals: 6-1 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.
• Cardinals: 6-1 ML and O/U as road favorites when Sonny Gray starts.
• Reds: 6-16-1 O/U when Andrew Abbott starts.
• Reds: 2-8 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts.
• In L30 days, Astros: 2-13-2 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
• Rays: 4-12 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

• Red Sox: 15-5-1 F5 O/U when Brayan Bello starts.
• Red Sox: 17-6-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

• Royals: 9-20 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
• Royals: 24-10 NRFI as a road underdog.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

• In L30 days, Brewers: 1-6-1 F5 ML vs. LHP.

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

• Yankees, despite being a top team, struggle against lefties. They are 10-14-6 F5 ML vs. LHP.
• White Sox are 1-23 ML since July 12, 2024.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

• Blue Jays: 5-0 O/U when Bowden Francis starts.

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML and 14-5-5 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
• Diamondbacks: 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024.
  

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

• Pirates: 31-13 NRFI as road underdogs.
• Pirates: 29-15 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
• Padres: 15-33 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.
  

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

• Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts.
• Braves: 15-3 NRFI as road underdogs.
• Braves: 20-10-3 F5 ML and 21-12 ML vs. LHP.
  

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

Hello Ballers! What a great weekend and an incredible run – the Cubs/Cardinals under and Twins (however you chose to play them) got there. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites | Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts | White Sox: 20 consecutive losses
  • The Athletics have been performing exceptionally well as home favorites. JP Sears has shown solid performance recently with a 3.7 ERA and a 3.95 ERA over the last 30 days, with one poor outing against the Astros as an outlier. This may seem like a straightforward pick, but the indicators clearly favor the Athletics to play on the run-line or include them as a parlay piece.
    
    
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over | L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
  • Logan Allen is making his first start since July 6. His season-long stats are concerning, with a 5.67 ERA and 5.45 FIP, and there may be rust coming into play against the Diamondbacks’ hot offense. The over seems to be a strong play here.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Cardinals: 13-4 NRFI as a home underdog.
• Cardinals: 14-3 RL (+1.5) as a home underdog.
• In L30 days, Mets: 19-5 NRFI.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’
  
  
  
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over.
• L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

• Marlins: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘4’ as an underdog.
• Marlins: 0-4 F5 ML as home underdogs when Roddery Munoz starts.
• Reds: 0-4-1 F5 ML when Nick Martinez starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 9-2-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

• Nationals: 6-15-1 F5 ML and 6-16 ML when Patrick Corbin starts.
• Nationals: 29-12 NRFI as home underdogs.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

• Twins: 15-6 ML as road favorites vs. RHP.
• Baller System active to play on Twins: Back team off a win when they used a lot of pitchers (lower-volume variation)

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

• Rangers: 6-15 ML when Andrew Heaney starts.
• In L30 days, Rangers: 14-6-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Astros: 0-7 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

• Royals: 7-1 ML as home favorites when Brady Singer starts.
• Royals: 1-6-1 F5 O/U as home favorites when Singer starts.

Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites.
• Athletics: 5-14-2 F5 O/U when JP Sears starts.
• Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox: 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts.
• White Sox: lost 20 consecutive games.
  

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Phillies: 15-3-4 F5 ML when Aaron Nola starts.
• Dodgers: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)