Author: Austin Wang

Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 15 Newsletter picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 25-19-2.

NFL Week 16 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• IV. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• V. Double-Digit Favorites
• Write-ups and picks

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I. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Titans: 2-12 ATS this season
• Ravens: 11-3 O/U this season
• Panthers: 10-3-1 1H O/U this season
• Dolphins: 2-12 1H Team Total O/U this season
• Texans: 12-2 1H ATS this season (but only 6-8 full game ATS)
• Steelers: 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season
• Lions: 11-3 1H ATS this season
• Bears: 4-10 1H ATS this season
• Browns: 3-11 Team Total O/U this season
• Bills: 12-2 Team Total O/U this season
• Bengals: 10-4 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in L17 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
  

Not active this week or already passed:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
• Giants: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs
• Broncos: 10-3-2 1H O/U
• Chargers: 11-2-2 1H ATS this season
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 3-12 O/U this season.
• Bears: 0-7 1H ATS on the road this season.
• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Scoring Trends and Week 15 Recap
Scoring took another dip in Week 15, with games averaging 44.9 points per game (PPG). This marks a noticeable drop from the 47.3 PPG seen in Week 14, reinforcing the downward trajectory as the season heads into its final stretch. The median scoring also reflected this shift, landing at 43.5 points. The season-long scoring average remains at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 15 ended 7-8-1 O/U, showing a slightly under-leaning trend.

Season Trends and Outlook

• Season-long totals record: 114-106-4 to the over.
• Week 16 average total: 44.5, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.

While the over has held a slight edge throughout the season, recent weeks indicate a gradual shift toward lower-scoring games, aligning with historical late-season patterns.

Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders

1. Divisional Familiarity
   As teams meet for the second time in a season, defenses are more prepared for offensive schemes, limiting explosive plays. This often leads to more conservative play-calling and defensive adjustments, keeping scores in check.
2. Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
   With playoff spots at stake, contenders shift focus to minimizing mistakes. Strategies emphasize ball security and field position over aggressive, high-risk plays, which can naturally lead to lower-scoring affairs.
3. Weather Conditions
   December football in outdoor stadiums introduces unpredictable weather variables. Cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation can disrupt passing and kicking efficiency, forcing teams to lean on their run games and drain the clock.

Week 16 Takeaways
The combination of reduced scoring and a slightly lower average total for Week 16 signals that oddsmakers are starting to price in these late-season dynamics. Nevertheless, this environment creates opportunities for sharp bettors to identify value, particularly in divisional matchups and games with playoff implications.

Staying ahead of market shifts and recognizing situational factors will be crucial for success in totals betting as the regular season winds down. Focus on weather reports, divisional rivalries, and teams in playoff contention to pinpoint the best under opportunities.

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III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 53-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 9-3 ATS this season.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active to play on the Lions (vs. Bears) in Week 16.

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IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 162-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 11-5 ATS this season.

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to play on the Broncos (fade the Chargers) in Week 16. (This lost on Thursday Night Football)

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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 155-119-10 ATS. (6-4 ATS this season)

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 46-31-4 ATS (59.7%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Bills -14 this week against the Patriots and Packers -14 against the Saints.

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NFL Week 16 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Game Breakdown:
The Detroit Lions are in prime position for a bounce-back performance as they face the struggling Chicago Bears. The Bears are facing a challenging set of circumstances, coming off a short week after their Monday Night Football game and already looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football contest. This situational disadvantage is compounded by their return home after three consecutive road games, often a spot associated with letdown performances.

For the Lions, the injury report earlier in the week painted a concerning picture, but the reality has turned out to be less severe. While David Montgomery will sit this game out, Jahmyr Gibbs is more than ready to take on the primary rushing duties. On the other hand, the Bears continue to spiral downward, having lost eight straight games.

Historical Trends Favor the Lions:
Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more who are coming off a loss as home favorites have delivered an impressive 53-22-4 ATS record.

Teams that unexpectedly lose at home as favorites often rebound with focused and dominant performances in their following game. Being listed as road favorites after such a loss indicates confidence from oddsmakers and suggests the potential for a commanding response.

Key Betting Trends:

• Lions: 11-3 1H ATS (First Half Against the Spread)
• Bears: 4-10 1H ATS

The Lions’ first-half dominance this season, coupled with the Bears’ struggles, makes this a strong play. Expect Detroit to come out aggressive and build an early lead against a weary Chicago team.

Pick: Lions 1H -3.5

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Two Baller Systems are active on the under for this matchup, highlighting favorable conditions for a low-scoring affair. One system triggers when the market total is substantially lower than average scoring trends, while the other activates for home underdogs who have a Thursday game ahead.

Geno Smith is likely to be less than 100% as he faces a stout Vikings defense (#2 in Defensive DVOA). Both teams are in challenging situational spots – the Vikings are coming off short rest after a Monday Night Football game and have key divisional matchups looming against the Packers and Lions. Similarly, the Seahawks have a Thursday Night Football game on the horizon.

Seattle has consistently hit the under when playing as home underdogs, posting a 4-1 record to the under in those situations. With two strong defensive teams squaring off and situational angles aligning, this game leans heavily towards a lower total.

Pick: Under 42.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Buccaneers have consistently exceeded expectations this season with a 10-4 ATS record. Baker Mayfield continues to lead the charge effectively, and the offense benefits from strong contributions by Bucky Irving, who is confirmed to be available for this matchup. With the Atlanta Falcons close behind in the divisional race, the Buccaneers must maintain their winning momentum.

Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in a less urgent position, as their season is effectively over. Cooper Rush steps in at quarterback, but there is little confidence in his ability to steer the team, especially following an outright win as underdogs. This creates a classic letdown scenario.

Key Betting Trends:

• Cowboys: 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Expect Tampa Bay to continue their strong form and cover the spread against a Cowboys team with little left to play for.

Pick: Buccaneers -4

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