Author: Austin Wang

Top MLB Betting Trends & Insights | Monday, August 19

Posted on by Austin Wang

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The featured trends went 1-0-1 yesterday, and the matchups with strong Baller Matchup Ratings all came through (Braves, Giants). I am not counting the Astros as I went out of my way to not endorse them at -405, but they won and covered, nonetheless. Back on the winning track – let’s keep it going!

I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:


Featured Trends:

  • Giants: 11-21-1 O/U as home favorites vs. RHP
  • In L30 days, White Sox: 0-6 O/U when Jonathan Cannon starts
  • In L30 days, White Sox: 0-5 O/U vs. LHP
    • These trends point towards an under in the pitchers’ park at AT&T Park in San Francisco. With the Chicago White Sox sporting the worst offense in the league, we’re not expecting many runs. We’re favoring the Under 8 (-115, DraftKings).



Here are the rest of today’s trends:


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

  • No starting pitchers announced and thus, no interesting trends to note at the moment.


Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

  • Blue Jays: 18-6 O/U when Kevin Gausman starts.


Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

  • Mets: 10-3 ML when David Peterson starts.
  • Mets: 32-15 NRFI as home favorites.
  • Orioles: 11-20-2 F5 O/U vs. LHP.


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers

  • Pirates: 32-15 NRFI as road underdogs.


Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros

  • Yusei Kikuchi’s teams are 0-10 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.
  • Red Sox: 25-10-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.
  • In L30 days, Red Sox: 0-5 ML when Tanner Houck starts.


Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

  • Royals: 20-9 ML and 17-5-7 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics

  • Rays: 4-13 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.
  • 2 Baller Systems active on the Rays.


Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

  • In L30 days, Padres: 4-0 F5 and full game ML when Michael King starts.
  • In L30 days, Padres: 13-4 ML (5-0 ML as home favorites) vs. RHP.


Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants

  • In L30 days, White Sox: 0-6 F5 and full game O/U when Jonathan Cannon starts.
  • White Sox: 7-17-1 O/U as road underdogs vs LHP.
  • In L30 days, White Sox: 0-5 F5 and full game O/U vs. LHP.
  • Giants: 11-21-1 O/U as home favorites vs. RHP.


Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Mariners: 10-3-2 F5 ML when Bryan Woo starts.
  • Mariners: 5-14 F5 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
  • In L14 days, Dodgers: 9-2-1 F5 O/U vs. RHP.


Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Sunday, August 18

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. The featured plays went 1-2 yesterday. Mystics 1H and Aces ATS were a loss, but the Sky came through with a clutch cover to prevent a disaster.

Click here for our WNBA Matchup pages



Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream

  • Dream: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs.
  • Dream: 1-7 Team Total O/U as home underdogs.


Our base model favors the Sun, and there are multiple Baller Systems active that also support playing on the Sun. Given the Dream’s poor performance in the first half as home underdogs, we’re backing the Sun 1H -4.5 (-110, Caesars) today.

The above screenshot is included in our matchup pages for Baller Access members. Click here for plans



Los Angeles Sparks @ Las Vegas Aces

  • Aces: 3-11 1H O/U as home favorites.
  • Teams on the second game of B2B are 14-3 O/U this season.


Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, a situation that historically favors the over. We’ve seen defenses struggle with fatigue in these spots, leading to higher scoring. The total has already steamed higher on Sunday morning, and we think LA/LVA over 171.5 is worth considering.



Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever

  • Fever: 18-9 O/U.


The Fever have consistently hit the over, while the Storm have been more of an under team. With a Baller System active on the under, we’re opting to pass on this game.


Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury

  • Sky: 6-2 1H ATS as road underdogs.
  • Teams on the second game of B2B are 14-3 O/U this season.


Two angles stand out here. First, the Sky are on the second game of a back-to-back, a scenario that has been a strong indicator for the over. Additionally, there’s a Baller System active on the over for rematches within a week where the total has increased from the previous game. The last game closed at 162.5 and went well under; yet, this game’s total being set at 166 is telling. Chennedy Carter’s presence will be a boost for the Sky’s offense, but expect their defense to struggle in the second game of a B2B. We think the CHI/PHX over 167 is an interesting look.

Furthermore, there are two Baller Systems active on the Sky. Our observation is that the Sky have been a much better first-half team. They are 6-2 1H ATS as road underdogs, and being on the second game of a B2B, we like the Sky 1H +4.5 (-110, Caesars) before fatigue sets in during the second half.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Saturday, August 17

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. The featured plays went 3-0 yesterday (Storm 1H -4.5, Fever/Mercury over 174, and Sun Team Total Over 83.5) with ease!

Click here for our WNBA Matchup pages



Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics

  • Mystics: 18-6-2 1H ATS (8-2 1H ATS as home underdogs).


Betting on the Mystics 1H has become an auto-bet, as they’ve consistently covered this all season. Remarkably, they’ve done this largely without two of their best players, Shakira Austin and Brittany Sykes. With both of them healthy, we expect their first half successes to continue and we’re backing WAS 1H +3 (-115, DraftKings).



New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

  • Aces: 6-1 ATS with more rest than their opponent
  • Aces: 3-10 1H O/U as home favorites.

The above screenshot on matchup pages for our Baller Access members. Click here to join!

The situational factors strongly favor the Aces in today’s marquee matchup. Despite a relatively shaky season for the defending champions, they’ve thrived in situations where they’re more rested than their opponents. Additionally, backing the home team in a clash of elite teams has historically been a profitable angle. We love the Aces -3 (-110, DraftKings), and would even take them up to -3.5.



Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks

  • Sky: 8-17 1H O/U.

The above screenshot on matchup pages for our Baller Access members. Click here to join!

From a trend perspective, not much stands out, but we have a Baller System active on the Sky, and our model/algorithm also favors the Sky to cover. If Chennedy Carter is ruled in (she was a late scratch last game due to illness), we like the Sky up to -3. Carter was recently vocal about being ranked below Caitlyn Clark in the latest ESPN player rankings, which should add some extra motivation to her game.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Friday, August 16

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. I’m experimenting with something new today, so let me know if you have any feedback!

Click here for our WNBA Matchup pages


Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream

  • Dream: 0-7 Team Total O/U as home underdogs.
  • Dream: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs.
  • 2 Baller Systems active to play on the Storm.


With the trends and 1H splits in mind, the Storm 1H -4.5 appears to be an appealing pick today. Additionally, there are 2 Baller Systems active supporting the Storm, and I expect a strong surge from this team as they finish off the season.


Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever

  • Fever: 5-0 O/U as home favorites.
  • Fever: 5-1 O/U with more rest than opponents.
  • 1 Baller System active on the over.


With 1 Baller System active on the over, the Fever/Mercury over 174 is an angle we like today. The Fever have been an over team all season, and the Mercury are on the second game of a back-to-back, a situation where we’ve seen defense struggle. Teams in the second game of a back-to-back are 13-3 to the over this season.


Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings

  • Wings: 6-1 O/U as home underdogs.
  • Wings’ opponents are 21-3-1 Team Total O/U.
  • Sun: 6-2 Team Total O/U as road favorites.


That 21-3-1 Team Total Over stat is incredible. While we’re not thrilled that DiJonai Carrington is sitting for the Sun, they still might not have trouble putting up points against the Wings’ abysmal defense.