Author: Austin Wang

Welcome to the NFL Week 10 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 13-13-2.

 
NFL Week 10 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• V. Fading home teams off OT win
• VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 10 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 10 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Bears: covered 6 straight home games.
• Bears: held opponents Team Total 1-7 O/U this season.
• Chargers: 1-12 O/U in L13 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-8 O/U this season.
• Titans: 2-9 ATS in L11 road games.
• Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
• Dolphins: 0-8 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in L9 games as underdogs (they covered their previous game).
• Panthers: 8-0-1 1H O/U this season.
• Texans: 8-1 1H ATS this season.
• Lions: 7-1 1H and full game ATS this season.
• Lions: 16-3 ATS in L19 road games.
• Ravens: 9-1 O/U this season (including TNF)
• Cowboys: 2-10 ATS in L12 games as underdogs.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 10 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

After Week 8’s scoring bonanza, Week 9 saw a slowdown in NFL scoring patterns, with games averaging 44.2 points—just a touch below the season average of 45.2. Totals favored the under this week, going 8-7, and the median points per game settled at 45.5, indicating a slight slowdown after a more high-scoring trend seen earlier in the season. Cumulatively, the season’s totals record now sits at 72-65-2 to the over, reflecting a balanced but gradually higher-scoring trend overall.

This recent uptick in scoring across the league is influencing market expectations, pushing game totals higher as sportsbooks adjust to the rising points. Early-season averages hovered around 44 points, but recent weeks have steadily aligned closer to the season’s average of 45.2. As we move deeper into the season, this inflation in projected totals suggests confidence in continued offense, though teams and defenses may still surprise as weather and playoff implications become factors.

Betting strategies around totals may shift with the market, as sharp bettors look for value in identifying potential under spots amid rising over expectations. Later in the season, with playoffs looming and rematches between divisional opponents, perhaps this is a reason to target some unders.

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III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

There are no active games this week, but here is a potential one with Lions as heavy favorites against the Jaguars next week, particularly if Trevor Lawrence remains out.

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IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-1 ATS this season.  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active on the Giants in Week 10.

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V. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 52-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend is especially relevant in Week 10, where the Broncos (vs. Chiefs) and Dolphins (vs. Rams) are active to back.

Another profitable angle over recent years has been fading underdog teams that pulled off an OT win the previous week. Since 2016, this strategy has yielded a strong 42-16-1 ATS record (72.4% success rate). The logic is that underdogs are more likely to experience a performance dip the following week after an emotionally and physically draining OT win. In Week 10, this specific system applies to backing the Chargers, making them a potentially strong play against a fatigued opponent.

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VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

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VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 158-106-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Ravens and Titans in Week 9.

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NFL Week 10 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers’ defense has been dominant this season, ranking 1st in yards allowed per drive and 6th in Defensive DVOA. This unit has been remarkably efficient at shutting down opposing offenses.

Adding to the appeal of backing the Chargers is their opponent, the Titans, who have been struggling mightily on the road. The Titans are just 2-9 ATS over their last 11 road games. Additionally, they’re coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Patriots. As mentioned above, fading underdog teams after an OT win has been a profitable strategy since 2016, with a 42-16-1 ATS record (72.4%). These combined angles make the Chargers a strong play this week.

The under presents additional value here, with several factors pointing in that direction. In the last 13 games where the Chargers have been favorites, the total has gone under in 12 of those matchups (1-12 O/U). One of our preferred “Under” Baller Systems is also active in this game, aligning with the Chargers’ defensive stats. Given the Chargers’ success at holding opponents down early and the Titans’ road struggles, this sets up for a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Chargers -7.5 (I love them in a teaser leg as well)
Chargers/Titans Under 38.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises. However, they’re up against a tougher challenge this week with the Steelers, who are coming off a bye—a scenario where head coach Mike Tomlin excels. Under Tomlin, the Steelers have won six straight games off a bye and covered in five of those six, a trend that speaks to their preparedness and execution after a week’s rest. The Steelers have consistently performed well as an underdog, showing grit in high-stakes matchups.

Another factor at play is the Commanders’ outlook, as they’re set to face divisional rival Eagles on Thursday Night Football—a key matchup that could impact their focus and game plan. Offensively, the Commanders bring a strong run game, ranking 5th in the league in yards per rush. However, they’re up against a Steelers defense that ranks 4th in fewest rushing yards allowed, indicating a significant challenge on the ground.

Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels, who’s had a relatively easy slate recently, faces an upgrade in defensive talent, which will reveal just how effective this Commanders’ offense can be against a well-prepared, rested opponent. With these angles in play, we’re backing the Steelers at +3.

Pick: Steelers +3 (-115 or better)

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