WNBA: Money Baller Report – Sat, June 21

Published: Saturday, Jun 21, 12:15 PM CT

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Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx

  • 1 Baller Systems on the Over
    • ▲ Play over on team (Lynx) that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games
  • Lynx: #2 in Offensive Rating
  • Sparks: #10 in Defensive Rating
  • Sparks: 9-4 O/U, 4-0 O/U as road underdogs
  • Baller Matchup algorithm: 55.7% chance of going over the total.

Plays:
Over 163.5
Lynx Team Total Over 86.5


The first place Lynx are firing on all cylinders lately, 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency and showing strong ball movement night after night. The Sparks, meanwhile, have been a consistent over team — especially on the road — thanks to their defensive struggles.

Between the matchup metrics and the system trends, the value today is clearly on the over. Expect points.





NBA Money Baller Report – Saturday, May 10

Published: Friday, May 9, 10:32 PM CT

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Celtics @ Knicks – Game 3

📊 Matchup Notes:

  • 4 Baller Systems active on the Celtics
  • 3 Baller Systems active on the Under

Play: Celtics -5.5

Breakdown:
This one checks every box of a textbook zig-zag spot. Boston enters desperate, down 0-2, and the pressure is on – both from the scoreboard and the media. Jayson Tatum’s performance has been under fire, and we’re banking on a big-time response from the Celtics’ leader.

Historically, Boston thrives in this kind of spot:

  • 11-4 ATS this season as favorites of 2.5 to 7 points
  • Road teams have been covering well in this year’s playoffs 32-25-1 ATS (w/ Thunder/Nuggets Game 3 pending).
  • The Knicks are 0-4-1 ATS as home underdogs
  • This postseason: Knicks are 2-6 1H ATS and 6-2 ATS – we think the 1st half angle is another one to tackle – Celtics 1H -4.

Meanwhile, the Knicks’ offense is due for some regression, and with three systems also pointing to the under, this could be a grind-it-out type of battle.



Warriors @ Timberwolves – Game 3

📊 Matchup Notes:

  • 1 Baller System on the Under
  • Warriors: 1-8 1H O/U as a home underdog
  • Timberwolves: 7-18 1H O/U as a road favorite

Play: 1H Under 97

Breakdown:
This isn’t the same Warriors team we’re used to seeing – and with Stephen Curry still out, Golden State is relying more on defense and slowing the pace. That plays directly into the 1H Under.

Add in a supporting Baller System supporting the under, and we’re locking in on the 1H Under 97. Expect a slower, defensive grind early before things potentially open up late.


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