Welcome to the NFL Week 1 Newsletter! Week 1 is less than a week away! The excitement of Sundays spent glued to the Red Zone Channel, anxiously watching your bets unfold, is almost here.
Welcome to weekly NFL newsletter at The Money Baller. Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.
While Week 1 is available for everyone to preview, subsequent editions will be exclusive to Baller Access members. Dive in and get ready for a season full of action and analysis!
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NFL Week 1 Newletter Table of Contents:
- I. Week 1 Underdogs: A unstoppable phenomenon
- II. Super Bowl Teams: Trends for the winner and loser
- III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
- IV. Early-season underdogs
- V. Key Numbers
- Write-ups and picks
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I. Week 1 Underdogs
Looking back at previous seasons, there’s a noticeable trend: underdogs often thrive in Week 1. Short underdogs, those with a line of +2.5 or fewer, have a strong track record, going 48-28-3 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) dating back to 2002. As of this writing, seven teams fall into this category for the upcoming Week 1:
- Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
- Dolphins +1.5 @ Colts
- Raiders +2.5 @ Patriots
- Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers
- Lions +2.5 @ Packers
- Texans +2.5 @ Rams
- Ravens +1 @ Bills
- Bears +1.5 @ Vikings
Week 1 underdogs in divisional matchups have been even more successful, posting a 56-30-2 (65.1%) ATS record since the 2009 season. This season, there are eight divisional games where underdogs are active, including:
- Cowboys +7.5 @ Eagles
- Chargers +3 vs. Chiefs
- Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
- Browns +5.5 vs. Bengals
- Giants +6 @ Commanders
- Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers
- Lions +2.5 @ Packers
- Bears +1.5 @ Vikings
Home underdogs, in particular, are 24-7 ATS in this spot, and the Falcons, Browns, Seahawks, Bears are among those in play this season.
Underdogs have historically performed well on Monday Night Football in Week 1 with an impressive 27-13-1 ATS record dating back to 1996. This trend is in play for the Chicago Bears as they face off against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.
- Bears +1.5 vs. Vikings
The significance of this trend lies in the underdog’s ability to thrive under the prime-time spotlight. Monday Night Football is a stage where expectations and pressure are high, often leading to tighter, more competitive games than the betting line might suggest. For the Jets, this historical edge could be a key factor in their Week 1 matchup.
Backing some of these teams may not seem appealing at first glance, but my experience with NFL betting often involves embracing discomfort. The logic holds: teams are fresh off the offseason and eager to set the tone. Divisional games are typically more competitive than the market and public might expect, especially with limited games and high stakes in the playoff race.
Keep an eye on these underdogs in Week 1, they might just surprise you!
II. Super Bowl Teams
How do the previous season’s Super Bowl Teams typically fare in Week 1 of the following season?
Since the 2002 season, Super Bowl losers have struggled in their Week 1 matchups, going just 10-12 SU and an awful 6-16 against the spread. This trend underscores the so-called “Super Bowl hangover,” where the psychological and physical toll of coming so close to victory only to fall short lingers into the next season.
This year, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in this unenviable position. Favored by 3 points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, they face the challenge of bucking this trend. Despite their talent, history suggests a cautious approach when betting on the Chiefs in Week 1.
On the flip side, Super Bowl winners have generally maintained their momentum heading into the next season, posting a strong 17-5 SU and 14-7-1 ATS record in Week 1 since 2002. This trend highlights the confidence and continuity often enjoyed by teams coming off a championship run. The Super Bowl victory often serves as a springboard for a strong start to the following season.
This year, the Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl triumph, are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.
III. Thursday – Look Ahead Spots
One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading favorites who are set to play their next game on a Thursday. According to the KillerSports database, fading these favorites in Week 4 or earlier has produced a remarkable 39-16-1 ATS record, a success rate of 70.9%. This trend is in play in Week 1 as a play on:
- New York Giants +6 (@ Commanders)
- Lions +2.5 (@ Packers)
The looming Thursday night game forces them to prepare for two games within a tight timeframe, which can lead to lack of focus. This is especially challenging early in the season, when teams are still working out the kinks and shaking off the offseason rust. The physical and mental toll of anticipating a short turnaround can also disrupt a team’s rhythm, making them more vulnerable to an upset. Even the best teams can struggle with preparation and execution when faced with the prospect of playing two games in just a few days.
IV. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs
Earlier in this newsletter, we touched on the success of Week 1 underdogs, but we want to dive deeper into one of our standout offerings—our “Baller Systems.” For members with Baller Access, we provide exclusive insights through a database of 50-plus systems, each meticulously back-tested over the past five seasons for consistent profitability. On our matchup pages, you’ll find which of our profitable systems are in play for each game.
One of our “Baller Systems” favors early-season (Week 4 or earlier) road underdogs who are getting 3.5 points or fewer and won their previous head-to-head matchup. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 51-23-2 record ATS.
This trend is active to play in two Week 1 games:
- Lions (@ Packers)
- Raiders (@ Patriots)
The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued, especially when they’ve previously proven they can beat their upcoming opponent. The familiarity and confidence gained from a previous victory can give these teams a psychological edge, making them a smart play for savvy bettors.
V. Key Numbers
Refer to the tables above, which display the frequency of margins of victory and total scores over the past five seasons:
- It’s no surprise that 3 remains the most common margin of victory in the NFL.
- However, recent seasons have highlighted the growing importance of the number 6. Over the past five years, games have landed on 6 more often than 7 – a shift driven by the league-wide increase in 2-point conversion attempts. We’re also seeing more outcomes land on 5, with 20 games in 2024 finishing with that margin.
- For bettors, this matters when considering whether to “buy the hook” around key numbers. While moving off or onto 3 (for example, shifting from +2.5 to +3, or -3.5 to -3) may seem appealing, sportsbooks typically charge a steep premium for that adjustment. These extra costs often range from 15–25 cents, meaning you’ll be laying -125 or even -135. Over the long run, that eats into profitability, forcing you to hit a higher win rate just to break even.
- In 2024, the most common final score total was 43, followed by 51, 37, and 44. Unlike margins of victory, however, totals are far less concentrated. That dispersion reduces the value of buying half-points or incorporating totals into teasers. For that reason, I recommend avoiding those adjustments on totals altogether.
Our Breakdowns
Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Baller Systems Active:
- Back divisional home dogs when opponent’s next game is a division matchup
Situational Angles:
- Week 1 underdogs
- Divisional underdogs
- Week 1 underdogs on Monday Night Football
The Vikings had a strong 2024 season, but there are signs of regression. Jordan Addison is sidelined, and rookie QB J.J. McCarthy makes his first career start after missing the preseason with injury. It’s a tough ask to get sharp immediately in a hostile divisional environment.
On the flip side, the Bears have renewed optimism with Caleb Williams under center and new HC Ben Johnson calling plays. Chicago’s rebuilt offensive line should give Williams time, and if that happens, the rookie’s playmaking ability can flip this matchup.
Systems, trends, and the situation all line up on Chicago here. With the Vikings’ offense in transition and the Bears looking like a live divisional dog, this is a buy spot.
✅ Play: Bears +1.5
New York Giants +6 @ Washington Commanders
Baller Systems Active:
- Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday
- Week: 1 Back road dog when next game is on the road
This isn’t the prettiest play on the board, but sometimes those are the ones that cash in the NFL. The Commanders enter with plenty of hype around Jayden Daniels, but regression is a real possibility in Year 2, especially as defenses get more tape on him. Washington also brings in new pieces like Deebo Samuel, but at this stage in his career, it’s questionable how much impact he can sustain across a full game.
The Commanders’ offensive line signed Laremy Tunsil, but he is prone to costly penalties and lapses. On the other side, the Giants quietly upgraded their defense this offseason and should match up well in the trenches.
With systems, trends, and situational angles all stacking on New York – plus holding the key number of +6 – this looks like a strong buy spot.
✅ Play: Giants +6
Detroit Lions +8.5, Atlanta Falcons +8.5. 6-point teaser
Our stats and trends above point toward both the Lions and the Falcons, but we’re hesitant to back them individually as Week 1 underdogs with heavy public support. Both lines opened shorter and have moved against the money, which is telling. Instead, we’ll take a 6-point teaser through the key numbers of 3 and 7, getting each team at +8.5.
Baller Systems Active:
- 3 systems on the Lions
- 2 systems on the Falcons
This approach protects us against tight divisional games while still aligning with the situational edges. Both teams should be live dogs in Week 1.
✅ Play: Lions +8.5 / Falcons +8.5 (Teaser)
Baltimore Ravens/Buffalo Bills Under 50.5
Early-season playoff rematches have historically leaned toward the under, with defensive intensity and team familiarity making scoring harder to come by. Both the Ravens and Bills fit that mold perfectly: two top-tier defenses, two offenses that lean on the run, and a physical, grind-it-out style of play. The Bills added Joey Bosa, a strong addition to their defense and filling a hole that Von Miller left.
The head-to-head history strongly favors the under as well: 9-2 to the Under in their last 11 regular-season matchups (4-0 to the Under in Buffalo)
With defensive intensity high and both teams more likely to play field-position football than a track meet, we see value in playing the under here.
✅ Play: Ravens/Bills Under 50.5
