Washington Wizards +9.5 (-114), 1 unit, FanDuel (-114)
Washington Wizards (4-6) visit the Detroit Pistons (6-3).
Detroit is playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back and is coming off a loss as a favorite, while Washington actually carries a rest advantage into this one. That situational edge matters against a Pistons team that now has to turn around on no rest off a defeat.
Past Matchups: In the last 4 meetings between these two teams, Detroit has failed to cover its number as a big home favorite, with the average line across those games sitting at Pistons -15.5 and the Wizards' average margin of loss just -7.0 — nowhere close to covering that kind of number. As the home favorite in this series, Detroit has had to win by well more than the market expects, and even with the Wizards banged up, that gap between the line and the actual margin favors the number Washington is getting.
Statistical Edges: Washington actually owns the better FT Rate Allowed mark at 19.8%, ranked 1st in the league, against Detroit's 29.2%, ranked 18th — a real edge at the free throw line that keeps games closer than the record suggests. The Wizards also have a better Paint FG% at 59.9%, 7th in the league, compared to Detroit's 56.4%, 18th, and better Paint Attempts at 41.9, 7th, versus the Pistons' 39.78, 20th.
Trends to Note: Detroit as a home favorite is a shaky 33.3% (1-2) against the spread, and in the ATS Range Records, the Pistons are just 50% (1-1) against the spread as a Fav 2.5-7. That's a number nowhere near strong enough to lean on with Detroit laying double digits off a back-to-back.
The schedule spot, the series history, and the shaky home-favorite number all point the same way. Take Washington Wizards +9.5.
Data: the Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons matchup page on ChrisBeCappinn (Past Matchups · Team Stats · Notable Trends · Records · Injury Report).