The NBA Eastern Conference Final is set, with New York (3) hosting Indiana (4). Both of these teams were underdogs (seeding wise) in their series prior. The Knicks faced Indiana 3 times in the regular season, and took down 2 of the meetings, along with winning their only home meeting by 25.
These two have strong homecourt advantages, with the notorious Madison Square Garden that is home to New York, while Indiana’s Gainbridge has become a loud environment for both of their men and women’s pro squads.
Karl-Anthony Towns fueled this matchup, averaging 30.3 PPG off 17.7 FGA along with 12 RPG. Granted, he was one of 4 Knickerbockers to average 19+ PPG vs IND, while all five starters averaged a >50 FG%. The Pacers are running Nesmith on Brunson, leaving Haliburton on Hart, Nembhard on Bridges, Siakam on OG, and Turner on KAT.
IND loves to stay out on the perimeter defensively to get out and run in transition. This limits the 3ball well, yet also still allows them to collapse on inside action. However, KAT driving from top of the key on Turner means that if he beats that matchup, the rim is open. He shot 23 times directly on Turner in their 2 matchups.
The biggest advantage for NYK here is their size, beating or matching Indiana’s in 4/5 of their offensive matchups. First is Hart, who was primarily defended by Haliburton. Hart got up 16 FGA in the latest meeting vs IND, with 12 of them coming from halfcourt sets. Haliburton himself also left these meetings getting 5 or fewer rebounds in all three meetings due to how often NYK looked to attack him. The most attacked matchup for the Knicks slashing trio of Hart/OG/Mikal was Haliburton, Nembhard and Siakam, in order.
Also hard to see IND competing vs the KAT/Robinson lineup. CLE’s whole issue in their series loss was simply getting outworked by IND, not fighting to get to their spots at all, yet NYK has never had an issue with their endurance. Carlisle himself noted, “Robinson’s productivity as a rebounder is remarkable… offensive rebounds and tipouts can generate 8 extra possessions, think about that. 10-15 extra points just from effort.”.
Indiana’s offensive success will have to come from targeting Brunson or getting KAT caught in drop coverage. Both of these scream Andrew Nembhard, though he has yet to produce over 8 points vs NYK this season despite closing last year’s playoff meeting with 15 & 20 points to fuel Indiana’s advance. The Pacers only win this season, without Nembhard, came off a combined 73 Points from Haliburton and Mathurin – who shot 18 FGA each.
KAT is likely to sacrifice Myles Turner’s 3 ball to favor rim protection, as he did with Horford/KP against Boston. Turner shot 8 3PA in their most recent meeting, sinking 5. He averaged just over 4 3PA in their 7 game series last postseason.