The Boston Celtics enter this matchup with some concerning trends when it comes to covering spreads, particularly in similar situations. They have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Western Conference opponents following a win, and their struggles in these spots continue to be a pattern. Historically, New Orleans has responded well at home in this matchup, winning six of the last seven against Boston following a home loss. Additionally, the Celtics have consistently struggled to cover after a home win, failing to do so in each of their last nine night games under those circumstances.
Boston is undoubtedly one of the league’s elite teams, fully capable of overwhelming opponents on any given night. But this season, covering large spreads has been a different story. With a 19-28-1 record against the spread (ATS), they’ve frequently found themselves overvalued by the oddsmakers. Even more telling, they are just 8-11 ATS in their last 19 games when favored by double digits. Meanwhile, New Orleans is finally getting healthy, and the results have followed. Five of their 12 wins this season have come in the last three weeks, and they’ve performed notably better at home, with eight of those 12 victories coming in front of their own fans.
These teams met just a couple of weeks ago in Boston, where New Orleans nearly pulled off the upset as a sizable underdog, ultimately falling by a single point. In that game, the Celtics managed to put up 120 points, but the Pelicans’ defense forced them into 43.6 percent shooting and held them under 30 percent from deep. On the other end, New Orleans responded with 119 points of their own. Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray put up a combined 56 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists, while Zion Williamson added 16 points. It was one of the better offensive performances from the Pelicans, and a similar effort will be needed to stay competitive in this rematch.
Boston has also hit a bit of a rough patch, losing two of its last three games. Those losses came against the Lakers and Rockets, with their lone win in that stretch being a victory over the Mavericks. Even in those matchups, they haven’t looked as sharp, scoring just 112 and 96 points in the two defeats. Defensively, there have also been some signs of slippage, and New Orleans will need to capitalize on that. If Murphy, Murray, and Williamson can deliver strong performances, there’s a solid chance for the Pelicans to keep this one close once again.
🏀Teams facing the Celtics after they covered and won their last game are 16-1-1 ATS in 2024.
📊The Boston Celtics are 0-20 ATS when the total is above 210.5 and they are coming off an ATS win in which they shot over 70.5% from the free throw line.
📊The Celtics are 2-18 ATS in their last 20 games coming off a 10+ point SU win.
Celtics have failed to cover in 5 straight in this spot. Boston has lost 7 of the last 9 in this spot. Celtics are 1-6 ATS in these games when playing the Western Conference.
📊The Celtics are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 120+ points.
Boston are 2-14 ATS (10-6 SU) in these games as a favorite.
📊The Celtics are 2-12 ATS this season when they covered their last game by 5+ points.
❓TIn conclusion, the Celtics’ ATS struggles are a product of inflated lines, letdowns, and a lack of sustained intensity after strong performances. This makes them a great fade after dominant games, big wins, or efficient scoring nights, especially when favored.
🕢8:00 PM EST
📉Boston are 6-13 ATS vs teams below .450
📉Boston are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
📉Boston has failed to cover the spread in 17 of 18 games when coming off a win.
🎯Zion Williamson has 24+ points in 4 straight games.
🎯Zion Williamson has 6+ rebounds in 11 straight games.
✅Active on New Orleans Pelicans +11.0 (ATS)
The Philadelphia 76ers have been playing well as of late, winning four straight games and showing signs of improvement. However, their most recent loss, a 35-point defeat in Denver, serves as a stark reminder of how things can go when they’re facing a team with a fully healthy roster. Despite their recent successes, the 76ers still struggle with consistency, particularly when it comes to games at home, where they have been underperforming relative to their road games. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been dealing with a frustrating stretch, losing three consecutive games. But with a full roster and the desire to bounce back, this seems like the perfect opportunity for them to get back on track.
Denver’s defense was suspect in their recent matchup against the Knicks, but they’ll likely hear plenty from their coaching staff about tightening things up. With a player like Nikola Jokic leading the charge, the Nuggets have the potential for a dominant performance. Jokic could very well put up a monster stat line, perhaps even flirting with a 20-20-20 game. Despite Philadelphia’s recent streak, they are due for a letdown, especially considering their tendency to struggle at home. The Nuggets won’t lose their fourth straight game, and a vastly improved performance is expected in this matchup.
Philadelphia’s struggles against Western Conference teams continue, as they’ve posted a 4-12-2 ATS record in their last 18 games against teams from the West. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been dominant in night games against Atlantic Division teams with losing records, winning eight in a row. The 76ers also have a poor record following a home win, losing four of their last five games at Wells Fargo Center in that situation. Adding to their woes, Philadelphia has failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home games after a win.
In terms of personnel, the Nuggets are coming into this game at full strength, while the 76ers are still without key players like Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Andre Drummond. Despite their recent skid, Denver’s overall health gives them a clear advantage, and it’s likely they’ll turn things around soon. Although Philadelphia could surprise if they replicate their recent performance, the Nuggets are simply overdue for a big win, and this matchup sets up as the ideal spot for that to happen.
The Nuggets have been able to dominate in the paint this season, and that’s where they should have a major advantage in this game. The 76ers rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot 48.6% from the field. With Denver’s potent offense, which ranks among the top three in the league, they should have no problem outscoring a depleted Philadelphia roster. Denver’s Jamal Murray has been playing at a high level, leading the team in scoring, while Jokic remains the focal point of the offense, capable of controlling the game in the paint.
Although the 76ers are coming off a solid win over Sacramento, they are still missing some of their most impactful players, including Embiid. Their offensive efficiency remains lackluster, ranking in the bottom third of the league. Tyrese Maxey has been playing at an All-Star level, but the 76ers still face significant challenges against a well-rounded Nuggets team that has both the talent and depth to capitalize on Philadelphia’s weaknesses.
With the Nuggets’ superior offensive and defensive efficiency, along with the 76ers’ injury issues and home struggles, this matchup looks to favor Denver in a big way.
🏀The Denver Nuggets are 8-0 ATS with totals below 247.5 following a game in which they allowed 59+ points in the paint. They have covered these games by an average of +19.9 points per game.
❓This suggests that when they’ve struggled defensively in the paint but then play a lower-scoring game afterward, they usually bounce back strong, likely focusing on tightening up their defense and limiting fast-break opportunities, which helps them cover the spread.
📊Favorites above .500 on a 2+ games losing streak who won and covered in their last matchup vs the opponent are 37-13-1 ATS (74.0%) since 2020.
❓In simpler terms, these teams often bounce back in the next matchup after a tough losing stretch, especially when they’ve already shown they can dominate that specific opponent. It’s a psychological and situational edge: the team has motivation to recover, and their previous win adds confidence, leading to strong performances and covering the spread.
🕢7:30 PM EST
📈Denver are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
🎯Nikola Jokic has a Triple-Double in 6 straight games vs Eastern Conference as favorite.
🖥️Score prediction:
🤖jaXon AI approved⬇️
The Nuggets are coming off a three-game losing streak, but they previously dominated the 76ers with a 144-109 victory just ten days ago. The 76ers are missing key players, including Joel Embiid and Paul George, which significantly weakens their lineup. Despite the Sixers’ recent four-game winning streak, they rank 23rd in net rating over their last ten games, indicating struggles in overall performance. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have a strong offensive rating and should be able to exploit the 76ers’ lack of interior defense.
✅Active on Denver Nuggets -9.5 (ATS)
Colorado has controlled the recent head-to-head series against St. Louis, winning six of the last seven meetings, including a 4-3 victory the last time these two teams faced off. Their defensive efforts have been particularly impressive, as they’ve held the Blues to just one goal in three of the past five matchups. That defensive dominance, combined with their offensive firepower, gives them a significant edge. Colorado ranks among the league’s top teams in multiple offensive categories, consistently finding ways to put the puck in the net, while St. Louis lags behind in the bottom half of the league in those same metrics.
The Blues have been struggling to generate offense in recent games, managing just two goals or fewer in three consecutive contests. Their most recent performance was particularly concerning, as Dallas shut them out on home ice over the weekend. Those scoring woes, coupled with their road struggles, paint a bleak picture heading into this matchup. St. Louis has lost just under 55% of its away games this season and has dropped three of the last four played outside of their own arena. Traveling to Colorado, where the home team has been dominant, presents another tough challenge. Given the statistical trends and recent performances, all signs point to the home team having a decisive advantage when these two teams take the ice on Thursday.
🏒Home favorites smaller than -130 who averages more goals per game than the league average playing a division opponent are 31-3 SU when the total is at 6.0
🕢9:00 PM EST
📈Colorado are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games when playing at home against St. Louis.
📉St. Louis are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Colorado.
🥅Joel Hofer (50) / Mackenzie Blackwood (87)
🎯Artturi Lehkonen has a goal in 3 straight games.
🖥️Score prediction: 4-2 Colorado Avalanche
🤖jaXon AI approved⬇️
The Avalanche are favored to win this game, with a win probability of approximately 63.8%. They have a strong historical performance against the Blues, winning 8 of the last 10 matchups. Despite recent struggles, Colorado has the offensive firepower led by Nathan MacKinnon, who has 78 points this season. The Blues have been inconsistent, losing four of their last five games, which makes Colorado a solid pick to win outright.
✅Active on Colorado Avalanche ML
⚠️”B” Grade RLM in favor of STL ML
🏒Sabres are 12-4 ATS in their L16 vs Nashville.
📊Eastern conference teams facing the Predators when their winning percentage is below .410 are 18-6 SU since 2020.
⭐️🏒Canucks are 9-1 ATS in their L10 away games vs Dallas.
🏒Quinn Hughes (VAN) has a 7 games point streak.
🏒Kent Johnson (CLB) has a 5 games point streak.
🏀Clippers are 5-0 SU in their L5 away games vs Charlotte.
🏀Pistons are 5-0 OVER in their L5 home games vs Dallas.
🔪DET PISTONS +1.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪MIL/SAS o234.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪PENN QUAKERS -1.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪YALE/PRINCE o147.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
⭐️🔪ST.LOUIS BLUES ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪COL/STL u5.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of San Antonio Spurs +2.0 (Spread went from +3.0 to +2.0 despite Milwaukee -2.0 receiving 79% of public bets and 70% of the money).
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 208.5 (LAC/CHA) (Total went from 214.5 to 208.5 despite over receiving 91% of public bets and 84% of the money).
⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 228.5 (DAL/DET) (Total went from 230.5 to 228.5 despite over receiving 89% of public bets and 90% of the money).
⭐️⏪🏒”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Vancouver ML (Moneyline went from +155 to +139 despite Dallas receiving 86% of public bets and 84% of the money).
⏪🏒”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 6.0 (CBJ/UTA) (Total went from 6.5 to 6.0 despite over receiving 79% of public bets and 78% of the money).
⭐️⏪🏒”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Saint-Louis ML (Moneyline went from +180 to +156 despite Colorado receiving 91% of public bets and 86% of the money).
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