The NFL Super Wild Card Weekend is Here!
One of the most exhilarating weekends of the NFL season has arrived, filled with intriguing matchups and compelling storylines. The stakes are higher, the rivalries deeper, and the drama palpable. Let’s dive into two powerful betting angles and break down some key matchups!
Revenge Angle
There’s nothing sweeter than payback. Teams looking to avenge a double-digit loss earlier in a regular season matchup have historically performed well against the spread. These teams boast a 40-25-3 ATS record (61.5%) and games in this situation tend to trend toward the Over (43-25 O/U, 63.2%).
This revenge angle is live this week for the Steelers, Vikings, and Commanders as they seek redemption and a ticket to the next round.
Momentum Angle
Momentum is the lifeblood of playoff success, and road underdogs riding a wave of victory have been money against the spread. Since 2018, road underdogs off a win facing home favorites off a loss are 115-77-2 ATS (59.9%).
This angle points to the Broncos, who carry the momentum of their recent win into hostile territory.
Chargers @ Texans
- Texans Trends:
- 6-11 Team Total O/U
- 6-11 O/U overall
- 13-4 1H ATS | 7-10 ATS full game
- Chargers Trends:
- 13-3-1 1H ATS | 13-4 ATS overall
The Texans have leaned heavily on their defense all season, ranking 7th in Defensive DVOA. However, their offensive struggles have been glaring, with the team ranking 26th in yards per play and Offensive DVOA. C.J. Stroud, who dazzled as a rookie, has hit the proverbial sophomore slump, further hampered by the losses of key weapons Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.
Expect the Texans to adopt a run-heavy approach, but even that may not save them against a Chargers defense that excels at getting to the quarterback (4th in sack rate) while the Texans rank 30th in sacks allowed. This mismatch spells trouble for Houston.
Our favorite angle? Texans Team Total under 19.5. The Texans have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last five games, and this slugfest doesn’t seem like the spot for a breakout performance.
Pick: Texans Team Total Under 19.5 (+106, FanDuel)
(Lines are sporadic here. I wouldn’t play a heavily juiced Under 21.5, but if you can find a TT Under 20.5 or 19.5 at plus money, I would rock with those)
Steelers @ Ravens
- Steelers Trends:
- 5-11-1 1H O/U
- 6-11 1H ATS | 11-6 full game ATS
- Ravens Trends:
- 13-4 O/U overall
- 12-5 Team Total O/U
This matchup marks yet another chapter in one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries. Steelers vs. Ravens games have historically been gritty, hard-fought affairs dominated by elite defensive play. While the Ravens’ offense has shined this season, 12-5 Team Total Over, the history between these two teams tells a different story.
Prior to their most recent clash, Steelers/Ravens games had gone under in 8 consecutive meetings. This rivalry thrives on familiarity and physicality, and with both teams having faced off in Week 16, expect defensive adjustments and cautious play-calling early.
The Steelers, true to their DNA, have been slow out of the gates this season, as evidenced by their 5-11-1 1H O/U record. Conversely, the Ravens’ early-game offensive success may hit a snag against a Pittsburgh defense that knows them well.
This game feels like a classic AFC North slugfest: defenses dominating the first half, with offenses struggling to establish rhythm. With Pittsburgh’s 1H struggles and the historical under trends, a 1H Under 22.5 bet feels like the best play.
Pick: Steelers/Ravens 1H Under 22.5
Sunday games will be posted on Saturday. Enjoy!