The Impact of Free Throw Rate on NBA Playoff Totals
In the world of NBA playoff betting, understanding the nuances of Free Throw Rate (FTR) can provide a distinct advantage. There is a notable correlation between FTR and game totals: higher rates often lead to games going over the total points line, while lower rates typically result in games staying under.
Strategic Application in Live-Betting and Analysis
Predicting free throw attempts before a game begins is challenging; however, recognizing the trends in how a game is officiated can offer valuable insights, particularly for live-betting. Observing whether referees are calling fouls frequently or sparingly during a game can help bettors make informed decisions on the fly.
Historical Performance and Trends
Looking at historical data can also reveal patterns that are invaluable for betting strategies. For instance, teams that had a FTR of 35% or higher in a game have subsequently gone 79-46-8 (63.2%) to the under since the 2014-2015 season. Even more compelling, these teams have gone 35-15 (70%) to the under in the last two playoff seasons when following a high-FTR game.
Insights for Baller Access Members
For members of Baller Access, our platform automatically flags matchups where this high Free Throw Rate system is active, simplifying the betting process and enhancing your strategy.
Understanding Free Throw Rate Norms and Variations
The average FTR in NBA games typically hovers around 28%. A rate of 35% is considerably higher and indicative of a game where many fouls were called. Not only can excessive free throws slow down the game and frustrate fans (we’re looking at you, Luka!), but they can also affect the pacing and strategy of the opposing team.
Teams and referees often adjust after a high FTR game. The following game might see fewer fouls called as referees use a looser whistle, or opposing teams might alter their play to avoid fouling. These adjustments can lead to a lower scoring game, making the ‘under’ a potentially profitable bet.
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