Welcome to the NFL Week 2 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.
NFL Week 2 Newsletter Table of Contents:
- I. Team Trends
- II. Early Season Totals
- III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
- IV. Week 2 Overreaction Angles
- V. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs
- VI. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
- Write-ups and picks
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I. NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Team Trends
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
- Packers are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their home debuts since 2013. All of these games were with Aaron Rodgers at QB except for last season.
- Commanders: 0-7-1 ATS in L8 home games.
- Buccaneers: 8-1 ATS in L9 regular season road games.
- Saints are 2-13-1 ATS in their first season road game since 2007.
- Ravens: 7-0 ATS after previous seven losses.
- Eagles: 7-1 O/U in L8 home games.
- Chiefs: 4-16 O/U at home since beginning of the 2022 season.
- Browns: 10-0 O/U in L10 road games.
- Panthers: 1-7 O/U at home since beginning of 2023 season.
- Eagles: 7-0 Team Total O/U as home favorites in 2023 season.
- Cowboys: 8-1 Team Total O/U as home favorites in 2023 season.
Not active this week:
- Lions: 12-3 ATS in L15 road games.
- Rams: 8-1 ATS in their home debuts since 2015.
- Eagles: 1-8 O/U in L9 road games.
- Vikings: 7-1 ATS and 7-1-1 to the under in their home debuts since 2015.
II. NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Early Season Totals
Week 1 saw a shift in scoring trends, with games going 9-7 to the over and averaging 45.8 points per game (PPG), slightly above the market total of 45. This is a significant jump from last season’s Week 1, which only averaged 41 PPG, and previous year’s season-long average scoring of 42.06 PPG.
Interestingly, despite the uptick in scoring, only 35 passing touchdowns were thrown— the fewest since 2018. Meanwhile, rushing touchdowns surged with 36, the most in that same span. Kickers also played a big role, going 68 of 74 on field goal attempts.
If Week 1 is any indicator and the league continues to emphasize the running game, we may see more opportunities for betting the under in future weeks. The market has followed suit, as average totals have lowered from 45 in Week 1 to 43.97 in Week 2. We will keep an eye on these trends as the season progresses.
III. Thursday – Look Ahead Spots
One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading home teams who are set to play their next game on a Thursday. According to the KillerSports database, fading these favorites in Week 4 or earlier has produced a remarkable 38-15-1 ATS record, a success rate of 71.7%. This trend was in play in Week 1 as a potential fade against the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins and went 2-0. This week, it is active as fade against the Jets.
Fading home teams in Week 4 or earlier has produced a 43-23-5 ATS record, a success rate of 65.2%. This trend was in play in Week 1 as a potential fade against the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins and went 2-0. This week, it is active as fade against the Patriots.
The looming Thursday night game forces them to prepare for two games within a tight timeframe, which can lead to lack of focus. This is especially challenging early in the season, when teams are still working out the kinks and shaking off the offseason rust. The physical and mental toll of anticipating a short turnaround can also disrupt a team’s rhythm, making them more vulnerable to an upset. Even the best teams can struggle with preparation and execution when faced with the prospect of playing two games in just a few days.
IV. Week 2 Overreaction Angles
In Week 2, there’s a strong historical trend favoring teams coming off a loss (and failing to cover) in Week 1 when facing a team that won outright as an underdog. Since the 2012 season, these bounce-back teams have gone 26-14-1 ATS (65%). This trend is active on the Broncos in Week 2, offering a potential edge for bettors (if you dare). It makes sense—teams off a disappointing loss often come in with added motivation, while their opponents may be riding high off an unexpected win, setting up a prime spot for a bounce-back performance.
V. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs
One of our “Baller Systems” favors early-season (Week 4 or earlier) road underdogs who are getting 3.5 points or fewer and won their previous head-to-head matchup. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 47-19-2 record ATS.
This trend is active in four Week 2 games:
- Bills (vs. Dolphins)
- Giants (vs. Commanders)
- Browns (vs. Jaguars)
- Rams (vs. Cardinals)
The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued, especially when they’ve previously proven they can beat their upcoming opponent. The familiarity and confidence gained from a previous victory can give these teams a psychological edge, making them a smart play for savvy bettors.
VI. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 47-25-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 31-13-3 (70.5%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.
I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.
This trend has gone 2-1 to the under so far this season. This is active on the Buccaneers/Lions this week.
NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Breakdowns
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Last week, the New York Giants delivered an underwhelming performance, but we’re backing them in this divisional matchup against the Washington Commanders. Here’s why we like the Giants in this spot:
We’ve got four Baller Systems Active on the Giants:
The Commanders went 0-7-1 ATS at home last season. While it’s important to note that they are under a new coaching regime and have a rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, leading the way, it’s unlikely that everything will click for them this early in the season.
Also, there’s a potential overreaction to the Giants’ Week 1 struggles, where they managed only 6 points, while the Commanders scored some late-game touchdowns during garbage time. The perception here could inflate Washington’s odds, but the reality is that both teams face significant challenges.
Despite Daniel Jones’ struggles at quarterback, we believe in head coach Brian Daboll’s ability to make adjustments. Daboll has proven to be an adaptable and effective coach, and this could be the week the Giants find their rhythm under his guidance. Another factor to consider is that Malik Nabers looks set to be available for Week 2, despite some earlier injury concerns. Expect a more competitive performance from the Giants as they look to right the ship in this key divisional matchup.
Pick: Giants +1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
At first glance, this matchup between the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers seems like it should deliver a high-scoring affair. However, several factors suggest that the under could be the sharper play here.
This season has seen a noticeable shift in offensive philosophy across the NFL, with more teams leaning heavily on the run game. With fewer teams airing it out at their previous levels, betting on high-scoring games has become riskier. While this game features two teams that could certainly light up the scoreboard, the league-wide trend towards ground-and-pound strategies might temper expectations for a shootout. With that said, the Lions and Buccaneers excel at stopping the run, which could limit overall offensive production. Last season, Detroit ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, while Tampa Bay was right behind them, coming in 6th.
One of the key betting systems we follow is active for this game: playing the under in playoff rematches. Since 2018, games that are rematches of playoff matchups have gone under the total at an impressive 65.3% clip (47-25-3). Even more compelling, when these playoff rematches occur early in the season (Week 10 or earlier), the under hits 70.5% of the time (31-13-3).
Pick: Under 51.5
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
This matchup between the Seahawks and Patriots presents a classic case of situational dynamics that could shape the outcome.
The Patriots are coming off a huge Week 1 win as underdogs, knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals and taking out over 30% of Circa Survivor pool entries in the process. After such an emotional win, this game sets up as a potential letdown spot, especially with a divisional showdown against the Jets looming on Thursday night. The Patriots might not be at their sharpest, distracted by the short week and the importance of the upcoming rivalry game.
On the flip side, the Seahawks find themselves in a challenging spot as well, traveling across the country for an early Sunday game. This kind of long-distance trip is always tough, and to make matters worse, they will likely be without star running back Kenneth Walker. While that’s a key loss, the Seahawks’ travel woes are arguably less concerning than the Patriots’ situational disadvantages.
With the line moving down to -3, this feels like the right spot and number to back the Seahawks. While both teams face obstacles, the Patriots’ potential letdown after an emotional win and the looming divisional game make them more vulnerable. I’m willing to take a shot on Seattle in this one.
Pick: Seahawks -3