Down to 2. The Thunder were expected to be here despite their young age, as they boasted the best NETRTG in the league at 12.7 – the only team to boast double digits in that category. The Pacers were the risers, being just 13th in NETRTG on the regular season yet rising to be the best offense in the playoffs thus far.
OKC’s defense has had a soft point though: the corner 3. The Thunder have surrendered 11.5 Corner 3PA this postseason (most), making up 30% of the total 3PA they allow. The Pacers are equipped to beat this, as they have shot a league-high 46.9% off Corner 3s in the playoffs. While all 9 of the Pacers’ rotational squad have shot >37% from this zone (insanity), the leaders of this group are:
– Aaron Nesmith, 1.1/2.2 (48.6%)
– Ben Shepard, 0.5/1.2 (37.5%)
Here is how each team’s highest Freq% corner shooter performed vs OKC this year:
– MEM: Aldama 6 3PA/gp (2 Corner)
– DEN: Westbrook 4.6 3PA/gp (2.7), Gordon 4.9 3PA/gp (1.6)
– MIN: McDaniels 5.2 3PA/gp (3), NAW 5.8 3PA/gp (3)
Nesmith, who will also be important defensively to defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is 17/20 on the year to 18+ PRA when he has 30+ minutes on the floor and 3+ 3PA.
Another key of the Thunder defense today will be Hartenstein, as the quick Indiana lineup doesn’t warrant the need for a double-big defense. OKC was 2-0 vs Indiana this season with IHart, yet the only game they won by double digits (21 Points) was when IHart played just 14 minutes due to an injury. Kenrich filled in for 27 minutes (No Holmgren), so they know that spacing can work.
Siakam produced 9.5 rebounds per game against this OKC squad. Indiana was coming off a matchup vs the Knicks who possessed a humongous offensive glass-cleaning unit in KAT & Mitchell Robinson; This matchup left both Siakam and Turner notching 6 or fewer rebounds in every game of the series. In turn, Haliburton averaged 7.5 RPG as he flies in to clear the box outs. Expect these two trends to flip this series.
Last of Indiana is Haliburton on offense. Averaged just 8.5 RA per game and that came with just 11.5 potentials against OKC this regular season – both of these marks being less than half of his average vs The Knicks. OKC being able to switch their defense up top means IND pressure has to come from inside or wings, another motive for Siakam.
OKC offense: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This may be the best game for his scoring, as the Indiana defense has shied away from double-coverage. This season already, 45 and 33 points for Shai vs IND. Expect Andrew Nembhard to be on Shai. Thought Nesmith like many others, but Nembhard has been the primary guy to slow him down with some help coming off the drives to mix different coverages at him. Overall, getting down the lane should be easy. 33.5 is a pretty fair line, but like his scoring in this matchup as always, 30+ points is a staple parlay leg.
In turn, Indiana’s defense has allowed them to rank Top 3 at limiting Catch-and-Shoot opportunities. This defense also has the ability to turn into offense quickly, as fastbreak makes up a consistent sixth of their total offensive production (Top 5).
Lu Dort has an interesting dilemma for this series. With Jalen Williams on Siakam, Dort would typically take Haliburton – yet OKC can elect to utilize faster perimeter defenders in Wallace and Caruso instead. However, Dort averaged nearly double his current PRA line against this team in the regular season, and despite how IND loves to run single coverage, you can’t expect pure isolation from SGA to be their defensive gameplan.