Welcome to the NFL Week 15 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 14 Newsletter picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 23-18-2.
NFL Week 15 Newsletter Table of Contents:
- I. Team Trends
- II. Totals Analysis
- III. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
- IV. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
- V. Double-Digit Favorites
- Write-ups and picks
Click here for NFL Week 14 Matchup Pages
I. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Team Trends
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
- Titans: 2-10-1 ATS this season
- Bengals: 4-0 ATS as road favorites
- Giants: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs
- Ravens: 10-3 O/U this season
- Panthers: 10-2-1 1H O/U this season
- Dolphins: 2-11 1H Team Total O/U this season
- Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
- Broncos: 10-3 ATS (4-0 ATS as home favorites)
- Broncos: 10-2-1 1H O/U (4-0 1H O/U as home favorites)
- Chargers: 10-2-1 1H ATS this season
- Chargers: 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.
- Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 2-11 O/U this season.
- Chargers: 2-8-1 ATS in L11 games as underdogs
- Steelers: 10-3 ATS this season (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
- Steelers: 3-9 1H O/U this season
- Eagles: 4-9 1H O/U this season (1-4 1H O/U at home)
- Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season
- Bills: 11-2 Team Total O/U this season
- Bears: 0-6 1H ATS on the road this season.
- Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
- Cowboys: 3-13 ATS in L16 games as underdogs.
Not active this week:
- Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
- Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
- Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
II. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring cooled off slightly in Week 14, with games averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG), a slight dip from Week 13’s 48.4 PPG. The median scoring also reflected this shift at 47 points, compared to the previous week’s elevated scoring pace. The season-long scoring average now stands at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 14 finished 6-7 O/U, highlighting a balanced but slightly under-leaning week.
Season Trends
- Season-long totals record: 107-98-3 to the over.
- Week 15 average total: 45.0, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.
Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders
- Divisional Familiarity
Teams meeting for the second time in a season tend to limit explosive plays, leaning into more cautious play-calling and defensive adjustments. - Playoff Contenders Tightening Up
With playoff spots on the line, contenders often employ conservative strategies, prioritizing ball security and field position over high-risk, high-reward plays. - Weather Conditions
December games in outdoor stadiums can be heavily influenced by cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation, which impact both passing and kicking efficiency. This can lead to a slower pace and fewer points.
Week 15 Takeaways
The slight decrease in scoring and the lower average total for Week 15 suggest the market is beginning to account for late-season trends. However, these conditions create opportunities for sharp bettors to target potential unders, especially in divisional matchups and games with significant playoff implications.
As the season progresses, staying disciplined and adapting to the evolving scoring environment will be critical for finding value in totals betting. strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.
III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 52-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 8-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Ravens (vs. Giants) in Week 15.
IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 161-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 10-4 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Buccaneers (fade the Chargers) in Week 15.
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V. Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.4% clip, going 154-119-10 ATS. (5-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Ravens -16.5 this week against the Panthers.
NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
The Baltimore Ravens head into their matchup against the New York Giants as double-digit road favorites, and for good reason. This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore to bounce back, backed by favorable trends and situational advantages.
The Ravens come off a bye week with extra rest and preparation, a critical factor as they look to rebound from an poor showing against Philadelphia. Baltimore benefits from a classic Baller System: backing road favorites coming off a loss as home favorites. Historically, teams in this situation have performed well, and the Ravens’ dominant roster and added motivation make them prime candidates to continue that trend.
On the other side, the Giants have all but packed it in for the season. With Tommy DeVito under center, their offense remains among the least effective in the league. The team is seemingly shifting its focus toward rebuilding, with their eyes set on next season and potentially securing a favorable draft position.
A particularly glaring trend works against the Giants: they are 0-7 ATS in the first half as home underdogs. This highlights their inability to compete early in games, a pattern that seems unlikely to change against a rested and motivated Ravens team.
The combination of situational advantages for Baltimore and the Giants’ season-long struggles makes this an appealing spot to back the Ravens early. Ravens 1H is the recommended play, capitalizing on their preparation and the Giants’ consistent first-half woes.
Pick: Ravens 1H -8.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
This game features two of our favorite Baller Systems that both favor the under. The setup presents a strong case for a lower-scoring affair, driven by situational and performance factors for both teams.
The Bengals come into this game off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football. Their thrilling win against Dallas featured a miraculous touchdown after a botched blocked kick, making it an emotionally taxing victory. With a divisional showdown against the Browns looming, Cincinnati may struggle to maintain focus and perform at their best.
Adding to their woes, the Bengals’ defense has been underwhelming and inconsistent, which would typically favor the over. However, Tennessee’s lackluster offense mitigates this concern. The Titans rank 31st in Offensive DVOA, making them one of the least efficient offenses in the league.
The line for this game is particularly revealing and supports a play on the under. Considering the Bengals’ poor scheduling spot, their potential letdown, and Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this game aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. Backing the under is the move in this matchup.
Pick: Under 46.5
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Packers enter this matchup with a significant rest advantage, while the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. Seattle is coming off an upset victory against a divisional opponent and now returns home after spending the past two weeks on the road. This situation is often a classic letdown spot, as teams struggle to maintain intensity after emotional road wins.
On the other hand, Green Bay is seeking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Lions. A key Baller System is active here, favoring the Packers:
- Fade Underdogs After a Game with Two or More Rushing Touchdowns.
This system highlights the unsustainability of teams relying heavily on the ground game to secure a win. Historical data shows that such performances are unlikely to repeat consistently, especially when injuries impact key contributors.
Seattle’s reliance on the run game becomes even more concerning with Kenneth Walker’s status in question. If Walker is unavailable or limited, the Seahawks’ offense could struggle to replicate their success from the previous game, creating a significant edge for Green Bay. Backing the Packers is the play here.
Pick: Packers -2.5 (-115)