Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 2 picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 21-18-2.
NFL Week 14 Newsletter Table of Contents:
- I. Team Trends
- II. Totals Analysis
- III. Fading home teams off OT win
- IV. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
- V. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
- VI. Double-Digit Favorites
- Write-ups and picks
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I. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Team Trends
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
- Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
- Panthers: 9-2-1 1H O/U this season.
- Titans: 2-9-1 ATS this season.
- Chargers: 10-1-1 1H ATS this season.
- Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-11 O/U this season.
- Chargers: 1-8-1 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
- Bears: 0-5 1H ATS on the road this season.
- Bills: 10-2 Team Total O/U this season.
- Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
- Cowboys: 3-12 ATS in L15 games as underdogs.
- Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
Not active this week:
- Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
- Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
- Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
- Chargers: 8-1 ATS as favorites this season.
- Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
- Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
- Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season.
II. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring has been on an upward trend for the third consecutive week, with Week 13 games averaging 48.4 points per game (PPG). This marks an increase from 47.7 PPG in Week 12 and 46.8 PPG in Week 11. However, this rise is slightly skewed by high-scoring games like Steelers vs. Bengals (82 points) and Broncos vs. Browns (73 points). Excluding these outliers, the median scoring sits at 46 PPG, revealing the average is somewhat inflated. The season-long scoring average has now ticked up to 45.6 PPG.
Totals betting in Week 13 ended 7-8 O/U, a mixed result that reflects this upward scoring trend but hints at potential shifts in Week 14.
Season Trends and Week 14 Outlook
- Season-long totals record: 101-91-3 to the over.
- Week 14 average total: 45.4, consistent with season-long scoring.
Despite the recent scoring spike, historical trends suggest a late-season shift toward lower-scoring games. This is often driven by divisional familiarity, more conservative game plans for playoff contenders, and weather impacts.
Strategies for Betting Totals in Week 14
- Target Inflated Totals: Higher lines stemming from recent scoring surges may create value for unders, especially where pace, weather, or situational factors point to fewer points.
- Focus on Pace and Red Zone Efficiency: Teams playing at slower paces or with struggles in the red zone are prime under candidates.
- Monitor Weather Conditions: Early forecasts can reveal opportunities for unders before the market reacts.
Key Takeaways
As Week 14 approaches, disciplined bettors can capitalize on potential market inefficiencies caused by scoring trends. Late-season dynamics—such as familiarity, playoff implications, and unpredictable weather—make unders an appealing strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.
III. Fading home teams off an OT win
One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 55-32-4 record (63.2% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.
This trend has gone 4-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Buccaneers (play on the Raiders +6.5) in Week 14.
IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Bengals (vs. Cowboys) in Week 14.
V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 160-108-3 ATS (59.7%). Backing this has gone 9-4 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Seahawks (fade the Cardinals) in Week 14.
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VI. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 154-118-10 ATS. (5-3 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Eagles -13.5 this week against the Panthers.
NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
The Seattle Seahawks enter this pivotal NFC West clash with momentum over the Arizona Cardinals. With two Baller Systems pointing in their favor, here’s why we’re taking the Seahawks to cover as underdogs:
- Baller System: Fading Home Favorites Off a Loss
Arizona suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Vikings in their previous outing, a classic setup for fading teams in this spot. - Baller System: Backing Divisional Dogs Who Dominate the Matchup
Seattle has won the last two head-to-head matchups against Arizona, indicating they’ve figured out how to handle this divisional rival. This confidence should carry over into this crucial game. - Seahawks Road Resilience
Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, proving their ability to deliver away from home. Conversely, the Cardinals are returning home after two road games over the Thanksgiving stretch—a situation that often results in mental and physical fatigue. - Momentum and Playoff Implications
The Seahawks are riding a three-game win streak and come into this matchup motivated, knowing the impact it has on the divisional playoff picture. While the Cardinals might argue it’s a revenge spot, Seattle’s recent form and cohesion give me more confidence. - Kenneth Walker’s Availability and Depth
Even with Kenneth Walker listed as questionable, the Seahawks can rely on Zach Charbonnet, a capable backup who can carry the load if needed.
Seattle’s well-rounded performance and mental edge in recent matchups make them the smart play here. I would try to find a Seahawks +3 (-115 or better) but would also take Seahawks +2.5 if that is your best option.
Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
This Week 14 matchup sets up favorably for the Bengals, supported by two key Baller Systems and strong situational trends:
1. Road Favorites Off a Loss
Road favorites of 2.5+ points, coming off a home loss as favorites, sport a 51-22-4 ATS record since 2018, including 7-3 ATS this season. This reflects the strong bounce-back potential of teams favored on the road after an unexpected setback. Cincinnati fits the profile, signaling a confident rebound opportunity.
2. Favorites After High-Turnover Games
Teams coming off turnover-heavy games tend to rebound with a better focus on ball security. The Bengals’ offense remains highly efficient despite recent defensive struggles, making them reliable in this spot.
3. Favorable Matchup Context
- Cowboys Offensive Struggles: Ranked 27th in Offensive DVOA, Dallas lacks the firepower to exploit Cincinnati’s defensive lapses.
- Line Confidence: The Bengals are -5 favorites despite a worse record, indicating trust from the market in their potential to dominate. Cincinnati has faced a rough schedule in the last few weeks, and should be able to bounce back against the lowly Cowboys.
4. Notable Trends Against the Cowboys
- 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs.
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Pick: Bengals -5.5