Welcome to the NFL Week 11 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 15-14-2.
NFL Week 11 Newsletter Table of Contents:
- I. Team Trends
- II. Totals Analysis
- III. Double-Digit Favorites
- IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
- V. Fading home teams off OT win
- VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
- VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
- Write-ups and picks
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I. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Team Trends
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
- Chargers: 2-12 O/U in L14 games as favorites
- Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-9 O/U this season.
- Bengals: 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
- Dolphins: 0-9 1H Team Total O/U this season.
- Dolphins: 0-5 ATS in L5 games at home.
- Texans: 9-1 1H ATS this season.
- Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
- Browns: 1-8 Team Total O/U this season.
- Lions: 7-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
- Ravens: 9-1 O/U this season
- Cowboys: 2-11 ATS in L13 games as underdogs.
- Cowboys: 0-6 ATS in L6 home games.
Not active this week:
- Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
- Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
- Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
- Panthers: 8-0-1 1H O/U this season.
- Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
- Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
- Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
II. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Week 10 brought another dip in NFL scoring, with games averaging 40.7 points, below the season average of 44.9. The week leaned heavily toward unders, finishing 9-4-1, with the median points per game settling at 39. This marks a cooling off after a more high-scoring stretch earlier in the season. Overall, the season’s totals now stand at 76-74-3 to the over, showing a trend toward normalization.
Defenses are adjusting, and external factors like weather and playoff stakes will continue to impact scoring. As the season progresses, betting strategies around totals may need to evolve. Sharp bettors will look for value in under opportunities, especially with rising market expectations for overs.
Key considerations for targeting unders include:
- Late-season divisional rematches: Familiarity between teams can slow scoring.
- Playoff implications: Tighter, more cautious gameplay may emerge.
- Weather impacts: Conditions in outdoor stadiums may favor lower scores.
Keep these factors in mind as you adapt to shifting trends and hunt for edges in the market.
III. Double Digit Favorites
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Lions -13.5 this week against the Jaguars.
IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-10 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-2 ATS this season. These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active on the Bills and Jets in Week 11.
V. Fading home teams off an OT win
One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.
This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and while there are no active plays this week, it will be active to fade the Panthers next week off their bye week.
VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active on the Rams -4.5 this week.
VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.
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NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
The Los Angeles Rams head into this week’s matchup against the New England Patriots with a fully healthy roster, featuring star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Both players now have several games under their belts to shake off the rust and gain some rhythm.
The Rams are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Patriots, a result that sets up a potential bounce-back scenario. On the other hand, New England enters this game riding high after an upset victory over the Bears as underdogs. This creates an intriguing dynamic: a Rams team looking to rebound versus a Patriots squad vulnerable to a letdown.
Historically, the situation heavily favors Los Angeles. As mentioned above, since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a remarkable 50-21-4 ATS record.
Another point of concern for the Patriots is their inability to perform at home. Over their last 15 games in Foxborough, they’ve gone a dismal 2-11-2 ATS.
The oddsmakers’ decision to favor the Rams on the road, despite their recent setback, reflects confidence in their ability to respond. With all these factors at play, the Rams seem poised to get back on track and cover the spread.
Pick: Rams -4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have been a model of consistency this season, holding a stellar 7-2 ATS record in both first halves and full games. This week, they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team missing Trevor Lawrence, whose absence amplifies the Lions’ advantage.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks second to last in Defensive DVOA, setting up Jared Goff for a potential bounce-back performance after his uncharacteristic five-interception outing. Adding to the Lions’ edge, we have a Baller System active: backing a favorite off a game where they were favored but committed two or more turnovers. These factors point to a dominant showing for Detroit.
Historically, double-digit favorites have proven profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (146-114-10 ATS) since 2015, with success increasing as spreads grow larger. Even this season, double-digit favorites have maintained their edge, covering 4 out of 5 times.
At -13.5, the Lions’ consistency and the depleted Jaguars roster make them a compelling play. Backing heavy favorites can seem daunting, but the numbers suggest there’s often a reward for taking the leap.
Pick: Lions -13.5 (up to -14)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins
This matchup features challenging situational spots for both teams. The Raiders are traveling cross-country and may already have their sights set on a divisional clash with the Broncos next week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a potential lookahead scenario, preparing for their own divisional game against the Patriots, and they’re coming off shorter rest after playing on Monday Night Football.
The potential absence of Tyreek Hill further complicates Miami’s offense, removing a key playmaker and potentially slowing down their normally explosive scoring.
Additionally, two of our favorite Baller Systems are active on the under for this game. These align with the broader trend of unders hitting frequently this season, particularly in games where fatigue or situational distractions play a role.
With a total set at 44, and the combination of unfavorable setups for both teams, this game shapes up as a strong play for the under.
Pick: Under 44